Great day yesterday, going 9-1 (4-1 on my 1.5 unit plays, which are my largest thus far). I don't have time to update my record right now, but here is my record before the big day yesterday:
Favorites: 39-15 for +18.96 units
Underdogs: 13-8 +6.92 units
Total: 47-20 for +25.88 units
I'll update the record later today. Thanks for all the kind words in yesterday's thread. I feel like I have a very good read on these games lately and hope to continue the success today. But I know it won't last forever. Posted a couple plays last night and will add to them, although don't have time to do full writeups.
Houston -135: Oswalt hasn't been great in Miller Park, but he looked great there last year and he pitched well overall against the Brewers last year as well, going 2-0 with a 0.92 WHIP and a .224 BAA. I think Bush is a very solid starter but he hasn't put it together yet this year. I also have to say I'm impressed with the way Houston stays in games day after day. I got a bad line last night, but I wasn't sure I'd be on today so I had to take what I could get. 1.35 units to win 1.
Minnesota -145: Love the pitching matchup. Kansas City isn't going to be the team to slow Ramon Ortiz down and De La Rosa, while impressive at times, has been killed in 5 appearances (3 starts) against Minnesota (0-3, 16.2 IPs, 7.02 ERA, 2.28 WHIP, and a .308 BAA). Another bad line, but what are ya gonna do? 1.45 units to win 1.
Chicago +150: Cintron is 6 for 11 against Verlander, Crede is 5 for 13, Dye is 7 for 12 with 3 HRs, Pierzynski is 3 for 13 with 2 HRs, and Thome is 6-12 with 4 HRs. I could be on the wrong end of line movement if the public hits Verlander hard, but I'm not positive I'll be around tomorrow so I'll it now. 1 unit to win 1.50.
Additional plays:
St. Louis -120: I really don't think Wade Miller is ready for a big game like this. It's been about 4 years since he's pitched a full season, and I don't think a rivalry like this is an easy game to walk into. Wainwright took a step back in his last start, but I won't let that get me down on him. 1.20 units to win 1.
Atlanta +120: I like getting Smoltz at this number. The Braves, although I haven't given them much respect yet this year, are playing solid ball. And I'm starting to notice that the Mets acually look better on the road than at home. Smoltz has had success against the Mets. Glavine has had some trouble with a number of these Braves. I think this should be a game with a lot of emotion and getting +120 on a team that is playing solid ball, and that is sending the better pitcher to the mound, is solid value. 1 unit to win 1.20.
Philadelphia +105: Garcia is being undervalued because of his first start, even though that was to be expected coming off an injury. Belisle is being overvalued and is making only the 11th start of his career. Philly finally has a little momentum, and with Howard back today I expect them to win their first series of the year. 1 unit to win 1.05.
Colorado -101: I finally started showing Maddux a bit of respect in his last start or two. But I just can't back him in a park where he's put up a good record, but has an ERA of around 6. I don't think a finesse pitcher like Maddux is really made for Coors. I've been impressed with Jason Hirsh and will take him at home for even money here. 1.01 units to win 1.
I'm going to post these now to get them out of the way. Not sure if I'll be back to add one or two. <!-- / message -->
Favorites: 39-15 for +18.96 units
Underdogs: 13-8 +6.92 units
Total: 47-20 for +25.88 units
I'll update the record later today. Thanks for all the kind words in yesterday's thread. I feel like I have a very good read on these games lately and hope to continue the success today. But I know it won't last forever. Posted a couple plays last night and will add to them, although don't have time to do full writeups.
Houston -135: Oswalt hasn't been great in Miller Park, but he looked great there last year and he pitched well overall against the Brewers last year as well, going 2-0 with a 0.92 WHIP and a .224 BAA. I think Bush is a very solid starter but he hasn't put it together yet this year. I also have to say I'm impressed with the way Houston stays in games day after day. I got a bad line last night, but I wasn't sure I'd be on today so I had to take what I could get. 1.35 units to win 1.
Minnesota -145: Love the pitching matchup. Kansas City isn't going to be the team to slow Ramon Ortiz down and De La Rosa, while impressive at times, has been killed in 5 appearances (3 starts) against Minnesota (0-3, 16.2 IPs, 7.02 ERA, 2.28 WHIP, and a .308 BAA). Another bad line, but what are ya gonna do? 1.45 units to win 1.
Chicago +150: Cintron is 6 for 11 against Verlander, Crede is 5 for 13, Dye is 7 for 12 with 3 HRs, Pierzynski is 3 for 13 with 2 HRs, and Thome is 6-12 with 4 HRs. I could be on the wrong end of line movement if the public hits Verlander hard, but I'm not positive I'll be around tomorrow so I'll it now. 1 unit to win 1.50.
Additional plays:
St. Louis -120: I really don't think Wade Miller is ready for a big game like this. It's been about 4 years since he's pitched a full season, and I don't think a rivalry like this is an easy game to walk into. Wainwright took a step back in his last start, but I won't let that get me down on him. 1.20 units to win 1.
Atlanta +120: I like getting Smoltz at this number. The Braves, although I haven't given them much respect yet this year, are playing solid ball. And I'm starting to notice that the Mets acually look better on the road than at home. Smoltz has had success against the Mets. Glavine has had some trouble with a number of these Braves. I think this should be a game with a lot of emotion and getting +120 on a team that is playing solid ball, and that is sending the better pitcher to the mound, is solid value. 1 unit to win 1.20.
Philadelphia +105: Garcia is being undervalued because of his first start, even though that was to be expected coming off an injury. Belisle is being overvalued and is making only the 11th start of his career. Philly finally has a little momentum, and with Howard back today I expect them to win their first series of the year. 1 unit to win 1.05.
Colorado -101: I finally started showing Maddux a bit of respect in his last start or two. But I just can't back him in a park where he's put up a good record, but has an ERA of around 6. I don't think a finesse pitcher like Maddux is really made for Coors. I've been impressed with Jason Hirsh and will take him at home for even money here. 1.01 units to win 1.
I'm going to post these now to get them out of the way. Not sure if I'll be back to add one or two. <!-- / message -->