MLB SUNDAY PICK (7-5-0 YTD +2.15 UNITS) With Writeup

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2007 RECORD: 7-5-0 +2.15 Units

Sunday 4/22/2007: Philadelphia Phillies (Freddy Garcia) @ Cincinnati Reds (Matt Belisle)

PLAY ON: CINCINNATI REDS (MoneyLine, -125) To Win 1 Unit

The Phillies are a team riddled with issues from top to bottom. Their manager, bullpen, aged pitching staff, and confidence have all been imbued with overwhelming negativity. Yet, on that same token, the Phillies are only 6 games under .500, and have plenty more disappointing games to play before they successfully emulate last years Cubs team. All in all, this team just seems to have one of those bad auras coming into this season.

On the mound for Cincinnati is an up-and-coming right-hander named Matt Belisle. Belisle is 26 years old and has spent the other two years of his career in the bullpen. From a 4.41 ERA in 2005, Belisle has shown a steady incline of progression to a 3.60 ERA as a reliever in 2006, and finally a 3.63 ERA as a starter this season. Not only that, but Belisles WHIP has decreased from<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","1.550 to a remarkable \n1.096 this season as a starter. While this is a small sample set, it does show solid, upward progression in some very telling categories. \u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Belisles pitching style used to be effectively wild, but he has now acquired greater command over his pitches. He has only walked 4 batters in 17 innings of work, while continuing to limit the hits per game. In his only bad start, he did give up a two-run double to the Brewers' pitcher, Dave Bush. In my opinion, this is forgivable, as all pitchers are guilty of throwing worse pitches to opposing SP's. I don't expect his struggles to continue against a Phillies team that has averaged less than 3 runs per game in their last 5 games. Belisle has a sharp slider, a well-located fastball, and a nice sinker as well. He can also go upstairs with the 93MPH fastball for an easy strikeout. All in all, Belisle represents a solid, promising pitcher that I'm sure the Reds are very happy to have. \n\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Freddy Garcia is usually a slow starter. He is in the prime ages of his career right now, but his best days may be behind him. Garcia had an average statistical season last year, despite 17 wins. In his only start against the Mets, he threw a lot of balls right over the plate, and only last 4 innings. A power team like the Reds should take advantage of Garcias vulnerability to the long ball. \n\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>The Reds are shaping up into a nice offensive force with the addition of Josh Hamilton alongside Griffey and Dunn. Guys like Freel, Hatteberg and Phillips know how to get on base for the big boppers, and the Reds have always been a force at home. \n",1]);//--></SCRIPT> 1.550 to a remarkable 1.096 this season as a starter. While this is a small sample set, it does show solid, upward progression in some very telling categories.

Belisles pitching style used to be effectively wild, but he has now acquired greater command over his pitches. He has only walked 4 batters in 17 innings of work, while continuing to limit the hits per game. In his only bad start, he did give up a two-run double to the Brewers' pitcher, Dave Bush. In my opinion, this is forgivable, as all pitchers are guilty of throwing worse pitches to opposing SP's. I don't expect his struggles to continue against a Phillies team that has averaged less than 3 runs per game in their last 5 games. Belisle has a sharp slider, a well-located fastball, and a nice sinker as well. He can also go upstairs with the 93MPH fastball for an easy strikeout. All in all, Belisle represents a solid, promising pitcher that I'm sure the Reds are very happy to have.

Freddy Garcia is usually a slow starter. He is in the prime ages of his career right now, but his best days may be behind him. Garcia had an average statistical season last year, despite 17 wins. In his only start against the Mets, he threw a lot of balls right over the plate, and only last 4 innings. A power team like the Reds should take advantage of Garcias vulnerability to the long ball.

The Reds are shaping up into a nice offensive force with the addition of Josh Hamilton alongside Griffey and Dunn. Guys like Freel, Hatteberg and Phillips know how to get on base for the big boppers, and the Reds have always been a force at home.<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Both teams' bullpens are weak, but capable. I do not put too much emphasis on bullpen unless there is a drastic differential in talent. In this instance, that is hardly the case.\n\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>The -125 line in Cincinnati is fair. It indicates Vegas's respect for Belisle against a well-established pitcher in Garcia, and I am happy to lay the juice in this situation. If Belisle can keep himself out of trouble, we could be in for a \nCincinnati blowout.\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Good Luck\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>",1]);//--></SCRIPT>

Both teams' bullpens are weak, but capable. I do not put too much emphasis on bullpen unless there is a drastic differential in talent. In this instance, that is hardly the case.

The -125 line in Cincinnati is fair. It indicates Vegas's respect for Belisle against a well-established pitcher in Garcia, and I am happy to lay the juice in this situation. If Belisle can keep himself out of trouble, we could be in for a Cincinnati blowout.

Good Luck
<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003cspan class\u003dsg\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Chase\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003c/span\>",0]);D(["ce"]);//--></SCRIPT>
Chase
 

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