Bookie Buster Service Plays, SDS Spreadsheets

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Service Play Spreadsheet Notes<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>

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Power Play….….8~1.…89%<o:p></o:p>
M. Cannon.…….9~2.…82%<o:p></o:p>
Larry Ness…….16~4…80%<o:p></o:p>
Big Al……….…10~3…77%<o:p></o:p>
B. Coleman……24~8…75%<o:p></o:p>
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The top five ranked services on the first spreadsheet are very strong. But two of these five services really stand out: Larry Ness and B. Coleman. Because we have been able to track 20 or more plays from these two services, their 75% (Coleman) and 80% (Ness) winning percentages are even more impressive than the 77% (Big Al), 82% (Cannon) and 89% (Power Play of the Day) winning percentages of the other three services. A couple of rough days for those three services will send their winning percentages into a nose-dive, while L. Ness and B. Coleman could withstand a couple of bad outings and still find themselves leading the Service Play Spreadsheet rankings.
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Service Play FADES Spreadsheet Notes<o:p></o:p>

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Gator Report……...3~9…25%<o:p></o:p>
Stu Feiner (200*)…3~8….27%<o:p></o:p>
Randle (RTH)…….8~15...35%<o:p></o:p>
MTI……………….1~7.…13%
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There has not been much activity recently with the services that are proving to be the better FADES this season. With the exception of the Gator Report, we’ve only been able to track one day’s worth of plays from three of these four services over the last four days.
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The exception, Gator Report, has went 0~1 three days in a row, and is proving to be a decent FADE opportunity. It should be noted, for those who don’t know by now, I have services grouped and ranked separately on the sheets based on the total number of tracked plays. MTI will soon head to the top of this list once we obtain the minimum total of ten tracked plays from them. MTI, obviously, looks very promising as a FADE opportunity.
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Following this post will the links to the most recently updated Service Play Spreadsheets.
 

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Updated Service Plays Spreadsheet

A link to the most recently updated Service Play Spreadsheet:
 
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Updated Service Play "FADES" Spreadsheet

A link to the most recently updated Service Play "FADES" Spreadsheet:
 
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Service Plays from BB:

Service Plays from Bookie Buster:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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Executive Sports

Toronto Blue Jays -115

Easy Baseball Betting

2.0 Units to win on the Padres at [-105] versus Rockies
We backed the Padres yesterday because they were in an offensive tear, the spread was out of whack, and they are divisional rival, and the Rockies were not playing so great. Nothing changes, except this time they have Greg Maddux on the mound. So they should win easier.

1.0 Units to win on the Pirates at [121] versus Dodgers
The Dodgers have not faced a left handed starter for almost 10 days now. This bodes well for Gorzelanny a little bit and should slow down the Dodgers offense.

1.0 Units to win on the Orioles at [104] versus Blue Jays
Picking them for the same reasons as yesterday.

2.0 Units to win on the White Sox at [146] versus Tigers
You have got to be kidding me. These White Sox should not be +146. I don't care who is on the mound for the Tigers. This is a divisional rivalry game. I think the problem here is that far too many people think the Tigers are due today and will break the sweep. But in a 3-game series, a team up 2-0 has a better chance at getting the sweep.

1.0 Units to win on the Indians at [-109] versus Devil Rays
The Devil Rays are fun to bet against if we find the right spots.

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Charlie Sports

Dodgers-130 (10*)

Jim Feist

Pick: Cincinnati Reds

Phillies out to a horrible start in '07, going just 4-1l through their first 15 games and 3-6 on the road (just one win at home so far). The season isn't through the first month and the Phillies find themselves already 7 games behind division leading Atlanta and Ny Mets. Freddy Garcia gets his second start for Philly and hopes to rebound from his initial start that saw him go just 4 2/3 innings, give up eight hits and three earned runs.
Matt Belisle starts for the Reds and he brings a perfect 2-0 mark into his fourth start (team is 3-0). We are a little surprised to find the Reds just a 130 favorite here against a floundering Phillies club. Too much is being given to Garcia here and we'll take the short favorite to win on Sunday.

Take the Reds

Pick: Yankees / Red Sox OVER

Yankees bullpen in a shambles thus Torre has to leave his starters in longer than he'd like such as in yesterday's game when Karstens blundered through the early innings. Doubt young southpaw Wright will fare much better vs. the hot Sox in just his 2nd Major League start. Power-laden Yankee lineup figures to get at least a few vs. Matsuzaka and the Sox pen. The NY YANKEES are 17-6 OVER as an underdog of +100 or higher over the last 2 seasons. BOSTON is 41-26 OVER as a home favorite of -110 or higher over the last 2 seasons.

Hondo

Toronto Blue Jays
 

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Service Plays from BB:

More Service Plays from Bookie Buster:<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" /><o:p></o:p>
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Billy Coleman

4* Houston w/Oswalt -140


Marc Lawrence

Chicago White Sox at Detroit Tigers
Sunday, April 22nd, 1:05 P.M. EST EST

White Sox send Jon Garland to the hill against Justin Verlander knowing Garland is 5-2 in the Motor City with a 3.52 ERA. On the flips side Verlander has struggles in his MLB career against Chicago, going 1-4 with a 7.81 ERA. Back Garland and the Pale Hose here today.

Play on: Chicago

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Dave Cokin

Take OAK Athletics

I'm a little mystified by some of the unconventional moves rookie Texas skipper Ron Washington has been making. Not to mention his apparent insistence to keep Sammy Sosa smack dab in the middle of the batting order. Chad Gaudin took a spot in the Oakland rotation thanks to the Loaiza injury and he's pitching as though he has no plans of returning to the bullpen down the road. Tejeda often follows a good game with one that's not so good, so I'll back the A's to finish off this set with a win.

Totals 4 U

Yankees/red Sox Under 10

Lou Diamond

Blue Jays / BAL Orioles

Take Over

Over is 4-0-1 in Blue Jays last 5 games as a road favorite. Over is 4-0-1 in Blue Jays last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter. Over is 7-1-1 in Blue Jays last 9 road games. Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 during game 3 of a series. Over is 6-1 in Blue Jays last 7 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5. Over is 4-1 in Blue Jays last 5 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600. Over is 4-1-1 in Blue Jays last 6 on Grass. Over is 7-3 in Blue Jays last 10 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 5-0-2 in Chacin's last 7 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Over is 7-1-3 in Chacin's last 11 starts as a favorite. Over is 6-2 in Chacin's last 8 starts after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 6-2 in Chacin's last 8 starts when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game. Over is 5-2 in Chacin's last 7 starts with 4 days of rest. Over is 7-3 in Chacin's last 10 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. Baltimore Over is 4-0-1 in Orioles last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Over is 5-1-2 in Orioles last 8 vs. American League East. Over is 5-1-1 in Orioles last 7 overall. Over is 4-1-1 in Orioles last 6 games following a win. Over is 4-1-1 in Orioles last 6 games vs. a left-handed starter

LT Profits

Mets -120 with Glavine over Braves

The Mets are now 21-6 as a team the last 27 times that Tom Glavine has started at home, and we look for that to continue in the rubber game of this three-game series.

Glavine has made four starts so far this season, and he has yet to allow more than three earned runs in a game. He is facing an Atlanta lineup that has not fared as well on the road as at home this year, as the Braves are hitting a modest .241 away from home including a weak .222 vs. left-handed pitching. Now granted, John Smoltz is also a stud, but this will be the toughest lineup he has faced to date as the Mets are batting a remarkable .299 as a team.

Perhaps most importantly, in a game that may not be decided until late, New York has the far superior bullpen. The Mets have an outstanding collective pen ERA of 1.31 with a 1.12 WHIP, compared to a 3.83 ERA and a poor 1.53 WHIP for the Atlanta relievers.

Blue Jays, Orioles Under 9.5 (-115)

These teams combined for just seven runs in a Towers-Loewen matchup yesterday, and these starting pitchers look to be much better.

Gustavo Chacin is 2-0 with a fine 3.57 ERA and an excellent 1.02 WHIP in 17.2 innings to start the year. Chacin also enjoys pitching in Camden Yards, as he has allowed a total of just four runs in 20.2 I innings over three career starts here. Now Steve Trachsel struggled vs. Tampa Bay in his last start, but he did begin the year with two Quality Starts, and he does still have a nifty 1.10 WHIP in 17.1 innings despite his 5.19 ERA. Trashsel has been great in two career home starts vs. Toronto, allowing only one measly run and just 11 hits in 14 innings.

We look for both of these pitchers to match their past successes vs. today’s opponent, and for both offenses to continue to struggle.

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Drew Gordon

While the Astros 5-game winning streak came to an end last night, losing 6-4 to the Brewers and Chris Capuano, there's no question they have just the arm to start a new streak taking the hill this afternoon!
Astros ace Roy Oswalt has been downright nasty, going 3-0 with a 2.89 ERA this season. His last start saw him cool down the hot-hitting Marlins, allowing 1 run on 6 hits over 6 1/3 innings of work to earn the "W."
Opposing Oswalt will be righty Dave Bush, who got roughed up in his last start against the Reds, allowing 4 runs on 8 hits over 5 innings. He has solid numbers against the Astros, however, the way they've been swinging the bat, it wouldn't surprise me if he didn't make it out of the 5th inning.
Remember, Houston has dominated this series, going 35-17 over the last 52 meetings. I see no reason for that trend to change anytime soon, especially with Oswalt on the mound. Winners of 8 of their last 10 games, the Astros get right back to their winning ways this afternoon.
Take Houston behind Oswalt over Milwaukee in this NL Central match up.

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3* Houston
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Chuck Franklin

The Braves aren’t hitting lefty pitching very effectively, especially on the road. They are just 1-6 in their last seven road games vs. a left-hander. Mets veteran ace Tom Glavine rises to the occasion when playing good teams, especially at home. He is a perfect 7-0 in his last seven home starts vs. a team with a winning record.
This will be the third time these two have faced each other since Glavine left the Braves, with Smoltz getting the win in the first two games. I expect Tom Glavine and a strong NY Mets lineup to end that streak at home today.

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3* New York Mets
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WILD BILL

Under 8 1/2 Mets-Braves (1 unit)
Phillies +120 (1 unit)
Cubs +135 (1 unit)
Padres -115 (2 units)
Under 8 AZ-Giants (1 unit)
Pirates +120 (1 unit)
Royals +145 (1 unit)
Texas +100 (1 unit)
Yankees +170 (5 units)


Michael Cannon

Take the Tribe for the road win today over the Devil Rays.
Cleveland starter Jake Westbrook has really struggled through his first three starts of the season, but he couldn't ask for a better matchup to get on the right track today.
That's because the Indians right-hander is 5-2 with a respectable 4.21 ERA in nine career games against the Devil Rays.
Westbrook is too good of a pitcher to keep struggling the way he has.
Take the Tribe for the road win as a cheap chalk.


2* Cleveland Indians
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Pete Deagan

3* White Sox +145
3* Yankees +170
3.5* Phillies +109
3.5* Blue Jays -110

Another Great fade

3* SF - 185
2* Atlanta + 105
2* Philly + 110
2* Cubs + 130
2* Tampa + 110
2* KC + 140
1* SD – 110

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Cappers Access

Oakland A's


Sebastian
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7* Tor over
7* Hou
7* SD
7* CHWS
10* LAD
20* LAA

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Sunday Comps
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Winner Line-San Diego
OTM-Dodgers
Players Group-San Francisco
Computer Boys-Reds
Feiner-UNDER Red Sox

Frank Rosenthal (he was 6-0 in baseball yesterday)


954 NYM-120 SB
961 PADRES-105 SB
966 DODGERS-130 SB
978 ANGELS-145 SB
979 YANKS+170 SB


Tony Onio
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500* New York Mets
500* Toronto Blue Jays
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ATS Lock Club
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3 Mets -115
3 Blue Jays-110

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Michael Cannon Money Train
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5 DIME: WHITE SOX (With Garland and Verlander as listed pitchers)
5 DIME: RANGERS (With Gaudin and Tejada as listed pitchers)

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MTI
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Guaranteed Pick: MTI Sports

Game: Seattle Mariners at Los Angeles Angels Apr 22 2007 3:35PM
Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
Reason: In his last start, the Angels scored only two runs for Santana, and they lost 7-2 in Boston. Ervin tends to save his best effort for a game he can win, as the Angels are a perfect 9-0 when Ervin Santana starts as a home 140+ favorite. In addition, his team tends to pick him up after they provided him with little run support in his last game. As evidence, we present the fact that the Angels are a perfect 8-0 with Santana when they scored a total of fewer than three runs in his last start, winning by an average of a whopping 5.3 rpg.
The Mariners are off a 7-6 loss to these Angels in which they allowed a dozen hits. Seattle is completely uninspired in this spot, going 4-21 as a road dog after a loss in which they allowed 12+ hits.
Seattle has lost Weaver’s two starter this season by margins of 14-3 and 11-2. This fact does not fire-up the Mariners. Seattle is 15-38 as a road dog when they lost the last two games their starter started and a bankroll-busting 25-49 on the road when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start.
Finally, Seattle is a gut-less 7-21 on the road after scoring 6+ runs and losing. Lay the price as we have a favorite that will score some runs with a pitcher who will be “on.” This is a great run-line play as the Angels should score at least 6 runs.
MTi’s FORECAST: LA Angels 8 Seattle 4


Stan Sharp - Triple Dime Play

962 COL (+100) vs 961 SDP
Analysis: Today all 3 of Stan's TOP BASEBALL BETTORS have made a BIG WAGER on the COLORADO. Stan's contacts all agree that San Diego's Greg Maddux will get lit up in Colorado today. Colorado avoids getting swept at home. TAKE COLORADO as STAN'S NATIONAL LEAGUE BIG BET OF THE MONTH and make them a TRIPLE DIME PLAY. Note Stan is 41-25 ATS with his last 65 Plays and 7-3 the last 10 in Baseball.


Larry Ness' Daytime Delight-MLB (26-8 or 76.5% start in MLB '07!)
My Daytime Delight is on the Tor Blue Jays at 1:35 ET. The Orioles owned the third-worst home mark in the AL last year at 40-41 and haven't had a winning record at home since the 2000 season. However, the Orioles are 6-2 at home to open 2007 and go for their sixth straight home win here. Vet Steve Trachsel takes the mound for Baltimore. After two solid starts to open the season, he didn't make it out of the fourth inning in his last outing, allowing six hits and six ERs. He went 15-8 for the Mets last year (team went 22-11 in his starts) but his ERA was 4.97. I'm not convinced he has much left and I see the Blue Jays getting to him in this one. Toronto counters with Gustavo Chacin, who is off to a good start in 2007, going 2-0 with a 3.57 ERA in three starts. The Blue Jays have a knack of playing well when this guy is on the mound, as they've gone 33-21 (.611 winning percentage) with him on the mound since 2005. Chacin is coming off an excellent start in his last outing, allowing just six hits and one ER in 6.2 innings of a 2-1 home win over the Red Sox on Tuesday (Outdueld Dice-K). The fact that he's a lefty is also important here, as the Orioles were a dreadful 16-33 vs left-handers in 2006 and have opened 2-4 vs lefties in 2007. Daytime Delight on the Tor Blue Jays. Good Luck...Larry

Larry Ness' 15* AL Pitching Mismatch GOW (16-1 or 94.1% w/15* GOW plays in MLB '07!)
My 15* play is on the LA Angels at 3:35 ET. My regular clients may have seen this one coming. These last two seasons, I've been "all over" Ervin Santana in his home starts, as long as the price is fair. It's "more than fair" in this one. The numbers are almost hard to believe. In his 27 regular season road starts, Santana's gone 9-13 with a 6.78 ERA, while in his 32 home starts, he's 20-5 with a 3.07 ERA. Including the postseason (and his lone home start of 2007), the Angels are 24-10 in Santana's home starts and his ERA is more than THREE runs lower than it is on the road! The Angels limped home on Thursday, after a 1-7 road trip, having lost six in a row. However, they've "gotten well" quick vs the Mariners, winning the first two games of this series, 8-4 and 7-6. That makes six straight home wins over the Mariners, going back to last year. Seattle enters on a current five-game losing streak and will have to count on Jeff Weaver to "stop the bleeding!" Good luck. You all know this guy's story. He went 3-10 with a 6.29 ERA in 16 starts LY for the Angels and then was demoted to make room for his brother. Shortly after that, he was traded to the Cards where he didn't do much better but then MIRACULOUSLY, he turned into Sandy Koufax in the postseason, particularly in the World Series. He showed his thanks to the Cards by leaving and signing a one-year deal with the Mariners. He's rewarded Seattle by allowing seven hits and seven ERs in two Innings at Boston plus 10 hits and seven ERs in six innings at home to the Twins, in his two starts TY. That's figures out to an ERA of 15.75, with opponents batting a mere .465 against him. AL Pitching Mismatch GOW 15* LA Angels.
 

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Service Plays from BB:

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Ben Burns

The Dodgers are rolling right now and they come off a momentum-building comeback win over the Pirates yesterday. LA rallied from a 1-run 9th inning deficit to force extra innings. The Dodgers then won the game in the bottom of the 10th inning on a walk-off grand-slam. That victory brought them to 13-5 for the year and 18-7 their last 25 home meetings in this series. Gorzelanny has gotten off to a strong start for the Pirates. However, he got roughed up for three runs in a single inning of relief the only previous time he faced the Dodgers. Look for the Dodgers to continue their hot play and series dominance and improve to 14-5 for the first time since 1983. Consider a play on LA

Robert Ross

Philadelphia won last night behind stellar pitching performance by Cole Hamels but sends Freddie Garcia to the mound today off a rocky effort in his debut with the team. Phils still not hitting despite the win, getting five runs in the first two games of the series vs. a pitching staff that had yielded 30 runs in its previous four games coming in. Phils have yet to win two games in a row this year. Take Cincinnati!

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FPBE Free Picks
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Marc Lawrence - CHW +145 (MLB)
Matty O'Shea - CLV -114 (MLB)
Ben Burns - LAD -130 (MLB)
JB Sports - NYM -122 (MLB)

Tom Freese

Boston starter Daisuke Matsuzaka has lived up to his billing allowing just 6 runs total in his his first 3 starts. Matsuzaka is in excellent KW form with a better than 4 to 1 strikeout to walk ratio. The Yankees Chase Wright is off his first MLB win in his last start. The young lefthander will be in over his head at Fenway Park tonight. Play On Boston - (Matsuzaka vs. Wright)

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Trev Rogers
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Phillies +110
Phillies vs. Reds OVER 9.5
Pirates +120
Rockies -103
Indians -111

Bob Balfe

Astros -140 over Brewers (Oswalt / Bush)



Big Al's #1 Baseball Side Selection

At 3:05 pm our selection is on the San Diego Padres over the Colorado Rockies.
 

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Are service leaders MLB, NBA, or combination?

great stuff. TY

Strictly baseball service play tracking only. Bookie Buster's service play thread over on the NBA Forum has basketball plays also. I separate the baseball portions and repost here and then doucment, track and record via the two spreadsheets.

BOL today
 

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Service Plays from BB:

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Brandon Lang

5 DIME:

Phillies - Specify Pitchers - Garcia vs Belisle
Astros - Specify Pitchers - Oswalt vs Bush
Indians - Specify Pitchers - Westbrook vs Shields
Red Sox -1 1/2 Runs - Specify Pitchers - Wright vs Matsuzak


 

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