ATL/FLA 4-23-07 thoughts

jeckll · Apr 22, 2007

Don't really get this line...about a week ago the Braves played against Dontrelle in Atlanta and threw Mark Redman on the mound, and the line hovered around even with the Marlins getting a few cents at some shops.

Now we send Kyle Davies to face Dontrelle and the line is above -140? Granted it's in Miami but how much of a home advantage do the Marlins really have...? Davies is a MUCH better pitcher than Redman and the Braves seem to be hitting their stride a bit, taking 2 of 3 on the road in Shea. Andruw Jones has had 2 multi-hit games in a row after a pretty abysmal start, and leadoff man Kelly Johnson is looking like one of the better young lefty hitters in the game, the kid is a walk machine and he ropes lefty pitchers.

I'll take the Braves getting +30, I see a pretty good value here.

jeckll · Apr 23, 2007

bump for the day crowd

Jibba · Apr 23, 2007

I have a lean on Florida actually, as I think it's a good spot for the Braves to start coming back to earth. But Willis has not been solid at home or against the Braves so I've held off. The line is definitely a bit strange, but don't discount just how bad Davies was last season (2-5, 7.49 ERA and .325 BAA on the road).

Ph3n0m3n@l · Apr 23, 2007

I think the over is the best play :banger: here

Dr.Swamee · Apr 23, 2007

Like the ATL call CK and agree with your analysis. May pull the trigger myself on that one. Davies is MUCH better than Redman.

sportsfantatic44 · Apr 23, 2007

read below...

sportsfantatic44 · Apr 23, 2007

here is some food for thought....

[FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica]

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Willis to become a father[/FONT]

[/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica]Wife will be induced today[/FONT]
[FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica]
By Juan C. Rodriguez
South Florida Sun-Sentinel
Posted April 23 2007
[/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica] [/FONT]

[FONT=Verdana,Arial, Helvetica] MIAMI GARDENS · Dontrelle Willis will make a significant departure from his pre-start routine.

Before pitching against the Braves tonight, Willis must tend to the business of fatherhood. His wife, Natalee, is being induced today.

"As long as the baby is healthy and she's all right, I'm good," Willis said. "I'm trying to be poised for her. The more she sees me like that, the better it is. ... I'm excited, but it's been 10 months. As soon as I heard she was pregnant I was ready to have the baby."

Willis didn't realize his wife's scheduled inducing coincided with today's outing until five days ago. He said he never considered reworking his start dates.

"That's just how it played out," Willis said. "She has her whole family here. It might have been different if we were in Milwaukee, but everybody she needs is in town so she just told me to go out there and be happy.

"I never had my father in my life, so it's a little different mind-set for myself than other people I guess. I've already been through crappy times without having a father in my life, so I'm thinking about just being there for the kid. ... It's life changing. It's already been life changing."

MIND WORK

On the disabled list with a calf injury, struggling reliever Jorge Julio is working on the mental side of his game.

Julio has met with Dr. Jeffrey Fishbein, the Deerfield, Ill.-based sports psychologist who has served as the Marlins' performance enhancement consultant the last four seasons.

"He's a good guy," Julio said. "Sometimes you need somebody to talk with. It helps relax your mind. They help you reflect. You look for a little support and sometimes you just want to relax your mind with someone. In baseball, it's not just interacting with your teammates. Sometimes you need to talk with other people and they give you a different perspective."

Just about every team, and a growing number of individual players, have a sports psychologist or performance enhancement coach on the payroll. Julio said he worked with the Mets' consultants as well.

"Going well, going bad, they would always come and get to know you," he said.

Eligible to come off the DL May 3, Julio will throw two bullpens this week before pitching in a game for the Gulf Coast League Marlins on Thursday in Jupiter.

SHORT STAY

Right-hander Scott Tyler's first big-league call-up was a brief one. He was with the club two games and did not pitch in either before the Marlins optioned him back to Double-A Carolina to accommodate Wes Obermueller.

Tyler warmed up Saturday, but the Marlins opted to stay with Randy Messenger for a second inning in the ninth.

Though he didn't pitch, Tyler was compensated well. Two days in the majors at the prorated league minimum comes out to $4,153. ...

Sidelined starter Ricky Nolasco will make two appearances for Class A Jupiter today and Thursday with an eye toward a May 1 start against the Mets at Shea Stadium. ...

Anibal Sanchez, who left after five innings Saturday with cramps in his right hamstring and calf, felt fine Sunday. ...

Mike Jacobs' swollen thumb hasn't shown much improvement. He'll likely miss a few more games. [/FONT]

everythingthatsgreen · Apr 23, 2007

I was looking at the Over

Davies in Career vs. Marlins: 0-2, 9.22era, 13.2ip, 24h, 10k, 10bb

Both games he pitched in last yr vs the Marlins went over 9 and were 11-8 and 3-11.

Davies this yr is 0-0, 12ip, 4.5era, 10h, 11k, 5bb and has not pitched on the road yet this yr....

Marlin hitters vs. Davies: Cabrera (.625 in 8AB), Jacobs (.750 in 4AB), Ramierez (.200 in 5AB), Uggla (.600 in 5AB), and Willingham (.667 in 3AB)

Then we have D-Train who beat the Braves once already this yr but hasnt exactly pitched great this yr..

Willis this yr: 3-1, 5.25era, 24ip, 32h, 21k, 6bb
Willis vs. Braves Career: 5-4, 4.72era, 97ip, 115h, 65k, 31bb

Brave bats vs. DTrain..

Diaz (.412 in 17AB), Francoeur (.381 in 21AB), K. Johnson (.333 in 12AB), A. Jones (.293 in 41AB), C. Jones (.303 in 33 AB), Renteria (.381 in 21AB), Wilson (.286 in 14AB)

Just to add one more thing and I don't like trends that much..

<LI class=more>Over is 17-5 in Davies' last 22 starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5. <LI class=more>Over is 20-6 in Davies' last 26 starts overall. <LI class=more>Over is 11-2-1 in Willis' last 14 starts vs. Braves.
On top of all that, Dontrell should become a father today so I don't think his head will exactly be in the game

jeckll · Apr 23, 2007

Over does seem like a solid play, I just think Dontrelle is getting a bit too much respect here. The line has moved a bit, agreeing with me, since I posted this last night. I think the over is probably a solid play too, just don't think the O/U line is as "off" as I think the ML is.

Also, if you like the Marlins instead for this game it may be worth playing them at -105 to win the series, then hedging back tomorrow. Can probably get a better overall price than the -40ish you'd be paying for this one game.

trains40 · Apr 23, 2007

Yeah Take The Over The Wind Is Blowing In From Center Lol. The Way Things Went Yesterday Wont Be Surprised.

yanni_gogolak · Apr 23, 2007

Ph3n0m3n@l said:
I think the over is the best play :banger: here

got it as well!:toast:

jeckll · Apr 23, 2007

Well congrats to the over backers, that was easy. I guess I totally misread this one; Davies looked like shit and couldn't control a thing. You know when they visited the mound they told him to just pitch over the plate and let your stuff get guys out...so what happens? He pitches over the plate and gets a HR.

I also would have liked to have known that Woodward and Pena were starting over Johnson and McCann, I guess that's my fault for not checking the lineups but that is a pretty big blow to the offense (and defense, they're running roughshod on Pena's arm).

Villareal is without doubt the weakest link in the Braves 'pen so it doesn't surprise me to see him give up runs, but I think if he could have limited the fish there a 5-2 deficit wouldn't have been too hard a hole to climb out of. Giving up 3 more runs really hurts the chances of a comeback.

Ahh well on to the next day.

ATL/FLA 4-23-07 thoughts

Search

jeckll

New member

jeckll

New member

Jibba

New member

Ph3n0m3n@l

New member

Dr.Swamee

New member

sportsfantatic44

New member

sportsfantatic44

New member

everythingthatsgreen

New member

jeckll

New member

trains40

.

yanni_gogolak

New member

jeckll

New member

Forum statistics

Share this page