Jibba's Mon MLB

Favorites: 50-18 for +26.60 units
Underdogs: 14-8 +9.49 units
Total: 47-20 for +36.09 units

5-3 on the day yesterday for just under a unit and a half profit. Like a couple games so far.

Baltimore -118: I love the way this team is playing right now. They've won 8 of their last 9 overall, and 7 straight at home. They send Bedard to the hill tonight, who was 9-4 with a 3.03 ERA at home last season. He'll be opposed by Haren, who has not been as good on the road in the past. The A's also aren't playing nearly as good ball as the O's lately and are coming off two straight losses to a very mediocre Rangers team. 1.18 units to win 1.

NY Yankees -152: I think we're actually getting a decent price on the Yankees after this weekend's sweep by the Red Sox. The Yankees always play Tampa well, and took 6 of 9 in Tropicana last season. It's not like that offense isn't currently playing well, and they'll likely have Matsui back tonight as well. I wouldn't want to be Casey Fossum tonight. 1.52 units to win 1.

LA Angels -137: As if Vlad isn't hot enough coming back from injury and almost single-handedly smoking Seattle. Now he gets to face Maroth, whom he's gone 5 for 13 against with 3 HRs in his career. Maroth also has an ERA of 5.55 in 8 career starts against the Angels. He won't be facing the weak Royals offense tonight, as he's done twice this season while piling up an ERA of 5.40. Weaver actually looked pretty good in his first start, aside from the 4th inning. Tonight he gets to take the hill at home, backed by one of the hottest offenses in baseball. 1.37 units to win 1.

Philadelphia -115: I think Howard is doing for the Phillies what Vlad just did for the Angels. Does anyone really question that they are a good team that simply hasn't played well yet? As nice of a story as Chris Sampson has been, I don't think he can seriously handle this offense now that they're getting hot. On the other side, Adam Eaton will try once again to get back on track, something he's been unable to do since coming back from his injury. He's pitched well in the past against Houston, he's at home, and the Phillies seem ready to roll off a few wins and get themselves back into contention. 1.15 units to win 1.

Currently I have leans on Florida, Seattle, and possibly Cleveland, but I have a lot more digging in those last two. May be back with more official plays. BOL to everyone on their Monday cards.

from 1 sox fan to another, i love the yankees tonight. gl!!

Thanks Mikey. Looks like a very solid play and I may even make it a 1.5 unit play if the line doesn't jump while I'm debating.

And for the record, I made another mistake on my record. Total record should read 64-26, but I'll recheck that just to make sure.

I have not done well playing Cleveland games lately, but I'm going to give it another shot because I think there is good value tonight.

Cleveland +114: The Indians are in a bit of a slump lately, even though they were able to hold onto 2 out of 3 from the D-Rays. I just can't see how this slump continues much longer with the offense they have. And tonight is a great situation for those bats to explode. They'll be facing Carlos Silva, who has been pretty good so far this year. But the Indians have batted .324 agaisnt Silva historically. And most of Cleveland's big bats have had a lot of success against Silva. Blake has gone 11 for 28 against Silva, Hafner has gone 9 for 23, V-Mart has gone 10 for 22 with 2 HRs, Peralta has gone 6 for 19 and Sizemore has gone 17 for 31 with 2 HRs. I just can't see Silva shutting them down tonight.

For the Tribe, Jeremy Sowers will be trying to bounce back from his worst start this season. And fortunately, tonight he won't have to face the Yankees in NY. I think he's a much better pitcher than he was when he was roughed up last year in the Metrodome, and I'll take him and the Tribe as a nice underdog.

Also getting very close to a play on Seattle. Want to see what I can get for a line though.

do you have the number of units u are up for the year jibba? or, dollars up for a hundred dollar a game player?

lets also say ou bet 137 to win 100 on the angles tonight. how do you play the pups like the tribe 100 to win 114?

Adding a couple games which seem to go against the majority here at the Rx.

Florida -134: Lot of people at the Rx on the Braves tonight, but I just don't see it. The Braves have been playing over their heads lately, and while I've given them plenty of credit at time, I just can't do it without Hudson, James or Smoltz on the mound. Kyle Davies? He of the 8.38 ERA last season? He didn't look good on the road (2-5, 7.49 ERA). He didn't look good in Dolphins Stadium 0-1, 9.00 ERA, .421 BAA). He didn't look good against Florida overall (2 starts, 6 IPs, 13.50 ERA, 3.17 WHIP, and a .469 BAA). And these Marlins are coming in with some hot bats.

Willis hasn't been great against the Braves historically. But we're not talking Kyle Davies bad here. We're talking bad for one of the better pitchers in the National League. Give me the stud starter at home with a hot offense (with maybe a bit of "win this for the new baby" motivation). 1.34 units to win 1.

Seattle +130: This line might go up a bit more, but since I don't have internet access at home right now, I'll take the best line available now. Seattle is not nearly as bad as they've looked over their last 6 games. But do people really think this is going to continue forever? They are going to snap out of their slump, and I think tonight is a good spot for it. This team hit Milwood pretty well last year (Beltre was 5 for 15 with 2 HRs, Broussard was 4 for 12, Johjima was 5 for 17, Sexson was 5 for 15, and Ichiro was a whopping 8 for 19). Texas has also just lost closer Gagne, which is one less arm they have to rely on if Milwood needs help from the pen.

On the other side, is the little known Cha Seung Baek. Who the hell is he right? Well, while we certainly can't make any final judgments based on his 6 starts last year (4-1, 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, .208 BAA), it's a start. And when we factor in his performances against the Rangers, I think it's solid evidence that this line it too high. In 3 starts against Texas, Baek has baffled the Rangers, going 3-0 with a 0.83 ERA, a 0.65 WHIP, and a .147 BAA. 1 unit to win 1.30.

I'm not positive why there's so much love for Atlanta and Texas tonight, and I may very well be way off in my analysis, but I feel like I've got the right side of these. I'm very close to a play on the Cubs, but want to look it over again before doing so. I also have a slight lean on KC, but don't see myself getting the right line (Meche is a much better pitcher at home).

i see now how you bet the pups jibba

finman13 said:

do you have the number of units u are up for the year jibba? or, dollars up for a hundred dollar a game player?

lets also say ou bet 137 to win 100 on the angles tonight. how do you play the pups like the tribe 100 to win 114?

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Been picking them very well so far this season, although I know it won't last forever. I screwed up my total record in the first post, but I believe I have it straightened out now.

Favorites: 50-18 for +26.60 units
Underdogs: 14-8 +9.49 units
Total: 64-26 for +36.09 units

So a $100 a game player would be up $3,609. Obviously you know that pace isn't something that a capper can keep going all season though. I just hope that I can keep increasing, as opposed to regressing.

I always try to state my plays at the end of the picks. A couple times this season with the dogs, I've bet to win 1 unit (e.g., 0.67 units to win 1), but I'd say that 85-90% have been, as another example, 1 unit to win 1.50. Favorites have all pretty much been to win 1 unit. The only ones that weren't were my plays to win 1.5 units (haven't had a 2 unit play yet). I've had maybe ten 1.5 unit plays on the year, and about half of them were this weekend.

I really dont think the Braves are playing over their heads. If anything they are playing under as guys like Andruw Jones have yet to hit stride. They are one of the most well rounded teams in the league

smartz said:

I really dont think the Braves are playing over their heads. If anything they are playing under as guys like Andruw Jones have yet to hit stride. They are one of the most well rounded teams in the league

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I think it's fair to say that playing .666 ball and being in first place is over the Braves' heads. I can't see how that could possibly be viewed as under anyone's expectations of them. If Hudson and James can keep this up for a whole season, then their staff will have 3 solid starters and 2 bad starters. I think it's jumping to conclusions to assume the Hudson of old is back for good, and while James has been great so far, you can never know.

Jones is 30 and I don't think it's fair to expect him to improve much from 92 HRs over the past 2 seasons. We already know what he is and that is factored into the line. Renterria can be a liability in the field and who knows if he'll revert once again to the player he was 2 seasons ago. To name 1 or 2 others, I don't think Kelly Johnson will continue with the power we've seen from him so far and Thorman has a long way to go to prove himself as well. Finally, Wickman is not a solid closer. I do not want my season in that guy's hands. He's obviously been virtually unhittable so far, but I'd honestly rather have Gonzalez.

well im with you on everything tonight and i am going with the cubs. the brewers can be prone to the strikeout, which is right up zambranos ally. i was waffling this morning between dogs indians and mariners. im with you on both now. i feel good that at least one of those will hit. baek has indeed been nails against this rangers team. indians are too good not to score more..heres hoping tonight is the night.

in the nba, take the rockets to get it done -5 (buy the hook if u need to) the jazz have stumbled down the stretch. they simply dont matchup with the rockets. they have absolutely no answer for yao ming who will have his way once again tonight. tracey mcgrady was useless the first half the other night, yet the jazz simply couldnt take advantage.tmac is a on a mission this year and wants to prove is critics wrong. houston will shoot much better tonight and win this one going away. im also going to take the under tonight as well. houston plays solid defense at home. because of mings height and mutombos shot blocking ability, if they use him, the jazz struggle to get easy shots inside the paint. couple this with the fact that utahs guards arent great shooters, i dont think utah will score more than 85, if that.

Chicago (NL) -147: Well, I didn't gain much by waiting on this, but 3 cents is 3 cents I guess. I've seen Zambrano as undervalued for his last start or two, and I still think it's the case here. I really wish he hadn't made those stupid comments about the Brewers after his last start, but I still think he can dominate this young offense. if Vargas bites me in the ass again for going against him, so be it. I'll tip my cap to him if he can keep this up, but I just don't see it happening. Anyway, I feel like I'm finally getting a handle on the Cubs and will put my faith in Zambrano to finally put up an ace-material performance tonight. 1.47 units to win 1.

I'm also adding a half unit to the Yankees play at -156, the Cleveland play at +108, and the LA Angels play at -139.

Final card:

Baltimore -118: 1.18 units to win 1.
NY Yankees -152: 2.3 units to win 1.5.
LA Angels -137: 2.07 units to win 1.5.
Philadelphia -115: 1.15 units to win 1.
Cleveland +114: 1.5 units to win 1.68.
Florida -134: 1.34 units to win 1.
Seattle +130: 1 unit to win 1.30.
Chicago (NL) -147: 1.47 units to win 1.

finman13 said:

well im with you on everything tonight and i am going with the cubs. the brewers can be prone to the strikeout, which is right up zambranos ally. i was waffling this morning between dogs indians and mariners. im with you on both now. i feel good that at least one of those will hit. baek has indeed been nails against this rangers team. indians are too good not to score more..heres hoping tonight is the night.

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Speak of the devil, I just posted that one as well. BOL to you and hopefully tonight isn't the night it comes apart. Really haven't had a big losing night yet, and only 2 small ones I believe, so here's to keeping that going. :toast:

in the nba, take the rockets to get it done -5 (buy the hook if u need to) the jazz have stumbled down the stretch. they simply dont matchup with the rockets. they have absolutely no answer for yao ming who will have his way once again tonight. tracey mcgrady was useless the first half the other night, yet the jazz simply couldnt take advantage.tmac is a on a mission this year and wants to prove is critics wrong. houston will shoot much better tonight and win this one going away. im also going to take the under tonight as well. houston plays solid defense at home. because of mings height and mutombos shot blocking ability, if they use him, the jazz struggle to get easy shots inside the paint. couple this with the fact that utahs guards arent great shooters, i dont think utah will score more than 85, if that.

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I'm going to return the favor and follow you on these as well. Houston -5, -113 and under 185, -107 it is. BOL on everything Fin.

GL, Jibba.

Always look for your posts.

I played the Yankees tonight. Look like no Johnny Damon tonight?

like all your picks except maybe philly, not sure on that game