MLB MONDAY PICKS (7-6-0 YTD +0.90 UNITS) With Writeup

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2007 RECORD: 7-6-0 +0.90 Units

MONDAY 4/23/2007: TWO PLAYS:

Chicago White Sox (Mark Buehrle) @ KC Royals (Gil Meche)
PLAY ON: KC ROYALS (Moneyline, +115) To Win 1 Unit

Houston Astros (Chris Sampson) @ Philadelphia Phillies (Adam Eaton)
PLAY ON: HOUSTON ASTROS (MoneyLine, +105) To Win 1 Unit<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cstrong\>\u003ci\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Kansas City\u003c/span\>\u003c/i\>\u003ci\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\n Royals \u003cspan\>*\u003c/span\>Writeup:\u003c/span\>\u003c/i\>\u003c/strong\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003ci\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/i\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>The Royals will be the first team to face off against Mark Buehrle since his no-hitter against \u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\nTexas\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>. While Buehrle sure did shine in his last start, but he is not exactly as dominant as he appeared. Tonight he faces a Royals team that has won three of their last four games, with an offense that finally seems to be waking up. The Royals are averaging over 5 runs per game in their last 6 games, and are in perfect position to perform well against one of their divisions most highly regarded pitchers. This team is a hungry, hard-nose combination of old and new players that have always performed better in \n\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Kansas City\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> than on the road. \u003cspan\>*\u003c/span\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>On the other side of the ball is a cocky White Sox team coming off of a 4-game winning streak that was snapped in a 1-run loss last night. No matter, the White Sox expect to cruise into \n\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Kansas City\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> with their no-hit wonder on the mound, and annihilate the lowly Royals. To a team like the White Sox, Gil Meche is a mere annoyance in their march towards the 2007 playoffs. I don't expect the White Sox to take this game seriously tonight after nearly sweeping the Tigers in an intense 3-game series. \n",1]);//--></SCRIPT>


Kansas City Royals Writeup:

The Royals will be the first team to face off against Mark Buehrle since his no-hitter against Texas. While Buehrle sure did shine in his last start, but he is not exactly as dominant as he appeared. Tonight he faces a Royals team that has won three of their last four games, with an offense that finally seems to be waking up. The Royals are averaging over 5 runs per game in their last 6 games, and are in perfect position to perform well against one of their divisions most highly regarded pitchers. This team is a hungry, hard-nose combination of old and new players that have always performed better in Kansas City than on the road.

On the other side of the ball is a cocky White Sox team coming off of a 4-game winning streak that was snapped in a 1-run loss last night. No matter, the White Sox expect to cruise into Kansas City with their no-hit wonder on the mound, and annihilate the lowly Royals. To a team like the White Sox, Gil Meche is a mere annoyance in their march towards the 2007 playoffs. I don't expect the White Sox to take this game seriously tonight after nearly sweeping the Tigers in an intense 3-game series.<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Though Buehrle is solid, Meche will definitely keep the Royals in this game. His stuff has looked filthy at times and he is coming off of back to back shutout starts. I'm not exactly sure how the Royals higher-ups decided Meche was worth $55 Million, but they sure seem to be right thus far. The Royals have also found a great closer in Joakim Soria to replace the injured Octavio Dotel. If Meche can go seven strong innings, the weak Royals bullpen will only be exposed for the eighth. From a bullpen standpoint, the Sox have not been much better. They have blown five out of eleven save attempts on the season, and were evidently vulnerable in my play on the Texas Rangers not too long ago. \n\u003cspan\>*\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>All in all, the motivational/emotional advantage that the Royals have tonight should be enough to achieve a victory tonight in \u003c/span\>\n\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Kansas City\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>.\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cstrong\>\u003ci\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Houston\u003c/span\>\u003c/i\>\u003ci\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\n Astros Writeup:\u003c/span\>\u003c/i\>\u003c/strong\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003ci\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/i\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Remember the name Chris Sampson. Come September, this guy should be a well-established starter for the Houston Astros. Tonight the Phillies face Sampson after a blowout victory against Matt \n",1]);//--></SCRIPT>

Though Buehrle is solid, Meche will definitely keep the Royals in this game. His stuff has looked filthy at times and he is coming off of back to back shutout starts. I'm not exactly sure how the Royals higher-ups decided Meche was worth $55 Million, but they sure seem to be right thus far. The Royals have also found a great closer in Joakim Soria to replace the injured Octavio Dotel. If Meche can go seven strong innings, the weak Royals bullpen will only be exposed for the eighth. From a bullpen standpoint, the Sox have not been much better. They have blown five out of eleven save attempts on the season, and were evidently vulnerable in my play on the Texas Rangers not too long ago.

All in all, the motivational/emotional advantage that the Royals have tonight should be enough to achieve a victory tonight in Kansas City.

Houston Astros Writeup:

Remember the name Chris Sampson. Come September, this guy should be a well-established starter for the Houston Astros. Tonight the Phillies face Sampson after a blowout victory against Matt<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","Belisle.While the Phillies are still far behind in the NL east, they have to be feeling a bit big-headed after putting up 9 runs in Cincinnati. Now they travel back home to face a virtual unknown on their home turf. Little do they know, Sampson has fantastic location, great pitch movement and an extremely competitive disposition on the mound. Despite their two-game win streak, the Phillies will not be able to pull themselves out of their April mire in one fell swoop. Tonight I expect the talented Sampson to put the Phillies back to sleep, and cruise against this dysfunctional \n\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Philadelphia\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> team. \u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>The Astros, on the other hand, are hot as ever, and they don't want it to end tonight. After winning 8 of their last 9 games the Astros find themselves with an unimpressive 9-8 record on the season. After two brutal losses in a row, they can ill-afford to take Adam Eaton lightly with a rookie on the mound. The 'Stros should enter tonights game with a hunger to win, and not squander the spoils of their hot streak. Against Eaton, it won't be too difficult.\n\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/div\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>*\u003c/div\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Eaton has had issues all season. He seems to consistently give up the clutch hit, and also lacks sufficient control. His fastball is flat and hittable. Against a team like \n\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Houston\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>, clutch runs can mount up in a hurry, and a weak \u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Philadelphia\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> bullpen may be exposed for a fair share of tonights game. Eaton seems to be headed downhill after an injury-filled '06. What was once a promising young pitcher has turned into a complete disappointment. Expect fireworks in Philly tonight.\n",1]);//--></SCRIPT> Belisle.While the Phillies are still far behind in the NL east, they have to be feeling a bit big-headed after putting up 9 runs in Cincinnati. Now they travel back home to face a virtual unknown on their home turf. Little do they know, Sampson has fantastic location, great pitch movement and an extremely competitive disposition on the mound. Despite their two-game win streak, the Phillies will not be able to pull themselves out of their April mire in one fell swoop. Tonight I expect the talented Sampson to put the Phillies back to sleep, and cruise against this dysfunctional Philadelphia team.

The Astros, on the other hand, are hot as ever, and they don't want it to end tonight. After winning 8 of their last 9 games the Astros find themselves with an unimpressive 9-8 record on the season. After two brutal losses in a row, they can ill-afford to take Adam Eaton lightly with a rookie on the mound. The 'Stros should enter tonights game with a hunger to win, and not squander the spoils of their hot streak. Against Eaton, it won't be too difficult.

Eaton has had issues all season. He seems to consistently give up the clutch hit, and also lacks sufficient control. His fastball is flat and hittable. Against a team like Houston, clutch runs can mount up in a hurry, and a weak Philadelphia bullpen may be exposed for a fair share of tonights game. Eaton seems to be headed downhill after an injury-filled '06. What was once a promising young pitcher has turned into a complete disappointment. Expect fireworks in Philly tonight.<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan\>*\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n",0]);D(["ce"]);//--></SCRIPT>
 

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Well . . . I'm still against you on the Astros, but am leaning toward the KC play so there's a chance I'll finally be on the same side of one of these as you. The only thing that's stopped me so far is Buerhle's solid history against the Royals. BOL though.
 

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I disagree with you on the Royals writeup. You take away the 11-7 victory against minnesota and KC is only scoring 4 runs per game. That one game skews the stats enough to slightly invalidate the data. However, what you fail to point out is that the White Sox have also been scoring an average of 5.5 runs per game--scoring no less than 5 during that stretch.

Meche's last outing against the WhiteSox he gave up 5 runs in 4 innings.. and has lasted on average 5.5 innings against the whitesox.

Sure Meche has looked good his last couple of outings. Can he keep it up the scoreless streak for another 6 - 7 innings? Last time he pitched at home he gave up 6 to Detroit. I think the Sox can put up 5 and have enough to win.

Just my opinion and a small play for me. GL
 

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Jibba- Glad you like the Royals tonight. How do you primarily go about handicapping games? Is it all about matchups for you? GL tonight

Senior- True, but I dont see the difference. 6 in 1 game and 5 in another is no different to me than 9 in 1 game and 2 in the other..It shows the same offensive potential.

Meche, to me, has been a different pitcher since being paid 55MILL to go to KC. It sure looks like he's inspired and locked in during all of his starts, and that can go a long way for a guy who was on a losing team every year.

I think the Sox will be asleep tonight, but good luck.
-Chase
 

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Jibba- Glad you like the Royals tonight. How do you primarily go about handicapping games? Is it all about matchups for you? GL tonight

I wish I could say I had a fully defined system of how I go about picking games, but I'm still working at it. I do focus primarily on matchups, but I also try to focus on whether teams are over or under-valued by the public. As an example, up until last night, I think Philly had been undervalued for a few days straight. They had completely fallen off the map with most of the public, who I think just brushed them off. Now that they've finally rolled off a couple of wins and are playing a bad team like Washington, I think they're bordering on being overvalued. So basically it's hard to say. For the time being I think I take it on a case to case basis, but I think I focus on matchups, perceptions, and overall how a team is playing (regardless of results).

Rough night last night, but I don't doubt you'll bounce right back.
 

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