ATP Picks 24-17-2 +$961

ATP · Apr 23, 2007

Been on a nice run of late, try to keep it up today:

1. METS -220

Everything in this game points the mets getting back on track today, with John Maine and his 1.93 with a 2-0 record being absolutly sick this year going against Bucholz who is 1-0 this year but has an ERA of 5.68 and while batters are hitting a robust .393 off him, this being his first start of the season. Bucholz's last three starts of last season were all losses of 7-0,8-4, and 7-0. The only start that Bucholz has had against the mets was a 5 innings bloodbath where he gave up 6 hits and 6 ER. The mets enter this game off a very dissapointing performance, blowing a 3 run lead against the braves, they will be determined to get back to winning ways for the mets faithful tonight. The mets have given maine more run support than any pitcher i know of scoring 9, 11 and 10 in his three starts. Colorodo has only one win in its last 14 games played at Shea, and are only 1-4 over their last 5 on the road. All of this adds up to my biggest play of the season:

440/200 METS :103631605

ATP · Apr 23, 2007

2. Florida Marlins -138

Dontrelle needs to rebound from a poor performance in his last outing vs the mets but this could be the spot, winning his last three starts vs the braves including a 7 innig 3ER performance earlier this season. Willis is expecting a baby within the next few days and I would expect him to perform lights out as a dedication to the child. The braves, though they won 2-3 from the mets are coming out of a very draining series with their division rivals and may be a little flat traveling from NY down to play the fish, who are starting to hit on all cylinders once again scoring 12 and 9 runs over their last two games. While Dontrelle has been good vs atlanta, Davies has been horrible vs florida with an 0-2 record pitching 6 innings and giving up 9 ER over his last two. While atlanta has been invisible at 7-1 vs righties they are only 5-5 vs lefties, and last i knew Dontrelle was a good lefty, advantage FISH.

another solid play
207/150

ATP · Apr 23, 2007

3. OAK/BALT UNDER 8 -115

Baltimore is on a min-win streak sweeping toronto and winning their last 4 against chacin, towers, and burnett, no offense but Dan Haren has become one of the better unappreciated pitchers in the game and Balt wont tee off on him. Though Bedard is 0-1 against Oakland, looking at the Oakland order they are only 8/59 (.136 BA) career vs the lefty. Oakland is the second lowest scoring team in the league at 3.7 runs per game and if you took away that 16 run outburst against texas they would be last in scoring. Bedard is 3-1 without his best stuff, meeting an oakland offense may allow him to get back on that ace-track for baltimore, combined with Haren this amounts to a low score.

115/100

ATP · Apr 23, 2007

4. Indians +106

Wasnt too enthused with either side until I saw the career stats vs the opposing pitchers. Minn is 12/49 career at a .245 BA, nothing special right, well how about the cleveland lineup vs Silva: 60/152 for a .395 Batting average, watch out minnesota a meteor is coming to town. Surprised that even with silva being hot this year and sowers having some troubles that the twinkies can be the favorite in this spot. You look at who silva has been so good against and its the whitesox at the beginning of the season when they were struggling, Tampa bay, and against Seattle in a game where the M's were deflated by the injury of Hernandez. Meanwhile Sowers got the royal yankee treatment in his last start, giving him a week to think about what went wrong in that 2 inning performance, he should be fresh for tonight. Sowers last start vs the twins was a complete game 4 hitter allowing no runs. Minnesota bullpen was used up in KC and Silva isnt a deep inning pitcher, watchout for the bullpen to get a lot of work tonight for Minnesota.

200/212 :103631605

Jibba · Apr 23, 2007

Like all the side plays. May stay away from the Mets just because I don't want to pay that much and am not thrilled at the idea of taking the RL. Already on the Tribe and listed some of the individual stats they've got against Silva in my thread. Heavy lean on Florida as well, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. BOL.

ATP · Apr 23, 2007

5. CH Whitesox -134

Wasnt sure this morning on this matchup but the more i look at it the better it looks in the ChiSox favor. Burhle enters this game of his no-hitter, while his team has done enough to win all of his starts thus far, while Meche has pitched well but not gotten the wins. Burhles last two outings vs texas and oakland have been tremendous throwing 16 innings and winning each game by a score of 6-0 and 6-3. The chisox have won 4 of their last 5 while KC is only 4-1 over their last 15 at home. Burhle has made a career out of beating KC going 15-6 lifetime pitching 6 strong innings in each of his last 4 starts never allowing more than 3 runs. The other deciding factor in this is that KC has been respectable against righties going 6-8 but they have yet to win a game vs lefties, 0-4.

134/100 Chisox