Jibba's Tues MLB

Favorites: 52-22 for +21.58 units
Underdogs: 16-8 +12.47 units
Total: 68-30 for +34.05 units

I just did full writeups for 4 games only to accidently hit the back button and lose it all. Oh well, I'll do what I can to reproduce it all. Rough night yesterday going 4-4 but losing 2 of 3 1.5 unit plays and ending up down about 2 units. I really felt like 1 or 2 of my losses were going to be winners, but I've had some good breaks along the way this season and have to take the bad with the good. Going to try to bounce right back today.

Texas -115: This may very well be the first time I've made Texas a play this year. I'm simply not high on this club. But while I thought yesterday was a very good spot for Seattle to end its losing streak, I think today is a great spot for Texas to reverse their recent results against the M's, who have taken 3 straight from Texas. Now I'm no big fan of Padilla and understand he hasn't had much luck historically against Seattle. But last season he faced them twice and let up only 5 runs in 12.1 IPs. Not great, but surely not fade-worthy. He also is a bit stronger at home, although it didn't show up in his results last year. Finally, he put up a solid 3.65 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 9 day starts last season.

On the other side is Jarrod Washburn, who is a big reason for playing Texas today. Washburn was horrible last year on the road, going 2-9 with a 5.88 ERA (3.54 at home) with a .291 BAA. This will be his first start on the road this year. He was also pretty bad in day games, going 2-5 with a 5.24 ERA. Teixeira went 3 for 7 against Washburn with 2 HRs in 2006 and was actually a better hitter during day games last season. I think that with a little help from Washburn, Teix can get back on track and help the Rangers do the same. 1.15 units to win 1.

LA Dodgers -148: I love the way the Dodgers have been playing lately and I think tonight the shine comes off Matt Morris. Derek Lowe has always been a better pitcher at home than on the road (some would say because he goes out drinking too much during road trips). But over his last 6 starts at Dodger Stadium he's taken it a step further, going 5-0 with a 1.46 ERA. The way this Giants team has struggled for runs over the last 2 or 3 games, I don't think they're going to be happy facing off against Lowe at home. 1.48 units to win 1.

Going to leave it with these two for the moment and be back in a bit with more. BOL to everyone today.

Jib,

With you on LAD...took them run line as well.

was looking at texas myself, might add it later. GL

Houston +110: I've been along for the ride making some money with these Pirates this season, but I think this is a bad spot for them. Since playing some good ball on the road over the past few weeks, this team has cooled off and is now getting too much credit IMO. They have yet to win a game at home this year and are sending Paul Maholm to the mound tonight. None of Maholm's 3 starts thus far have been all that pretty, although admittedly his only home start was the best of the bunch (5 IPs, 6 hits, 2 ERs against the Cards). In 4 career starts against Houston he's gone 1-2 with a 6.53 ERA, a 2.13 WHIP and a .325 BAA.

Houston, on the other hand, is sending Woody Williams to the hill. While he has yet to really show up this year, I think the Pirates are just the team to get him out of his slump. Williams is 7-3 in his career against Pittsburgh with a 3.63 ERA, a 1.24 WHIP, and a .255 BAA. In games in PNC Park, Williams has been even better, going 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA, a 1.00 WHIP, and a .188 BAA. As a team, Houston has also recently started to turn their season around. Although they've now lost 3 straight, they're still 9-5 in their last 14, and are 6-4 on the road this year. They have also won 6 straight in Pittsburgh and were 7-3 in PNC Park last season. 1 unit to win 1.10.

As always, BOL to everyone. Will be back later.

your one of the best capper on this baseball forum right now and the record shows that, good luck today.

keep up the good work jibba, and as always GL!

Thanks for all the kind words. I hope I can continue the success thus far.

Baltimore -106: I generally don't like to play games with 2 complete unknowns squaring off on the mound. But this one is all about the offense. Oakland, as it seems is their nature, has not been great early this season. They've done enough to tread water in 1st place in the weak AL West by beating teams like Seattle, Texas and the Vlad-less Angels, but they're batting .235 so far, which ranks them 27th in the league, ahead of only the White Sox, Rangers and Reds. If we look at SLG, the A's are once again 27th, ahead of only 3 teams in baseball (.358). OPS? They're ahead of 4 teams. Runs scored? They are 23rd in the league with 73 scored. This list goes on and on.

The Orioles, like the A's, are sending an unknown the mound today. But unlike Oakland, this team has a good mix of hitting along with pitching this year. They're 13th in the league in BA at .261, 13th in SLG at .410, 11th in OPS at .749, and 9th in the league in runs scored with 92. Additionally, they have been playing very good ball lately, especially at home where their offense has been even better. For the time being I'm going to keep this one small. 0.53 units to win 0.50.


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Also just want to list my current leans:

Tampa +148: I honestly thought NY would be about even money today and they would have been a play for me. But this price on Kazmir is extremely attractive even if NY's bats likely won't be silenced tonight. It's not like Tampa doesn't have a little offense of their own.

Toronto -119: Gasp . . . as much as I think people overestimate the demise of the Sox, this is a pretty good price on Halladay. Would be my first play against the Sox this year, but I'm just not sold yet that this hot Sox team will lose 2 straight at home to a very weak Jays offense.

LA Angels +103: This was one of the official plays that I wrote up and lost. I haven't made it an official play yet because I've had second thoughts on backing Escobar after his injury. Think the Angels are playing great ball though and Detroit has had a lot of trouble with Escobar in the past.

Chicago (NL) -151: I expected the books to give us a ridiculous line on Hill in his next start. At home against a young Brewers offense though, I think this is pretty solid value.

Cincinatti +134: Harang has disappointed me so far this year, but at this price against a team who has lost 6 of 7 at home, I tend to think it's decent value. I'm hoping to get just a bit more, but we'll see.

San Diego +135: They're playing good ball lately and I think the books are counting on the public to nail Randy no matter what the price.

Washington +192: Phillies have looked great and I've done well with them the past few days. But I think this line is too high.

May or may not add some of these today. BOL to everyone on their cards.

tough luck on the cubs last night. but like you, i still dont get the oddmakers opinion of rich hill. im on him again today. like most of buffetts picks, but staying away from the bjays game. shocked to see it that low, considering the pitching matchup and how well the bjays fair agains the sox. here are my other opinions in addition to yours and buffetts jibba

for the totals, i dont think they can put the runs high enough for the braves and marlins. marlins bats are smoking hot right now and i dont think redman is the man to stop them. on the othe side you have a young pitcher who has been shelled so far and whom the braves have seen this year.

in the mariners/rangers game you have two winless pitchers to date. washburn's first start on the road this year. was horrible last year on the road. padilla on the other hand already got spanked by the mariners in a pitchers ballpark earlier this year. weather warming up in texas so i think both offenses put up big numbers. gagne out for the rangers doesnt help either.

1-1 in the nba last night hitting the rockets and just missing the under. that brings me to 8-2 in the nba playoffs.

tonight a line i dont get once agains is the nets which is up to 5.5. buy the hook up to 6. again nets have experience, three all stars and underrated role players. when healthy they are simply the better team. considering the lakers if i can get 10, currently at 9. i think kobe learned something from the first game...get your teammates involved and you have a chance. they beat phoenix once this year and lost the other games by 5,8 ,8 ,8. i may buy it up to 10. gl buffett, jibba and the rest

i actually thought yankees line was pretty reasonable. wang was very successful against the rays last year. however, he might be on a short leash today which spells doom for the yanks

Yeah. That Cubs game was brutal. That one just hurt. And I kept thinking the Yankees would break that game open last night and they just kept stranding runners. I like a few overs today in MLB, but have not bet a total yet this year and will probably keep it that way since I'm just not comfortable enough with them.

As for Atlanta/Florida, I just can't get a feel for that one. I've been pretty good with the Marlins so far this year, but this one really just seems like a coin flip and getting even money on a coin flip just doesn't seem worth it.

Went to bed before the Houston/Utah game was over yesterday. When I turned it off, I figured there was a good shot we'd hit the under but lose the side. Turned out the other way and almost hit the under anyways. Get 'em next time. Will definitely consider the Nets tonight. BOL.

finman13 said:

i actually thought yankees line was pretty reasonable. wang was very successful against the rays last year. however, he might be on a short leash today which spells doom for the yanks

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Yeah, they definitely don't want to push Wang even slightly tonight, considering their pitching woes. I completely planned on playing the Yanks today if the line was reasonable. But I guess the books know that most bettors assume the Yanks will bounce back and not have their first 5 game losing streak in . . . however long it's been. With those kind of odds on Kazmir at home, I just don't think I'll be able to resist. Plus, this Tampa offense is smoking right now.

you considering the indians at all jibba? they are up to +200 now. a lot of indians hitters have a long history against santana and are pretty successful

i also think the white sox are very reasonably priced and disagree with you on the tigers game. great price for bonderman. they have the better lineup and its starting to show.

that rangers line is skyrocketing in favor of the rangers right now

Quite a run Jibba..Fantastic record...

Im curious if your writeups cover most of the factors you take in when you handicap..
Any unique insight into your strategy and how you've done so well?

Good Luck Today..

Chase

Nevermind! You answered this question in my other thread..
Thanks for the response buddy, keep up the fantastic work.

Looking forward to a good season together..

finman13 said:

you considering the indians at all jibba? they are up to +200 now. a lot of indians hitters have a long history against santana and are pretty successful

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I might consider it, but Johan went a very long time between his last two home losses and I'm not all that confident that the Indians will be able to give him his second in a row.

As for the Angels, after reading Buffett's writeup I'm definitely leaning a bit more away from that play.

Lastly, I did see the Rangers line climb pretty high toward the end of the morning, but didn't see what it ended up as right before game time. Pretty disappointed that it got cancelled as I felt I was on the right side of that one.

w3rdy303 said:

Quite a run Jibba..Fantastic record...

Im curious if your writeups cover most of the factors you take in when you handicap..
Any unique insight into your strategy and how you've done so well?

Good Luck Today..

Chase

Click to expand...

Little bit of luck and a little bit of learning from watching the real experts here. :lol: For fear of leaving someone out indadvertently, I won't name them, but basically I've tried to see how others here come up with valuations for teams over the long term and in any given situation. I really don't expect my run to last forever, but I just feel like I have a very solid grasp on the games we've seen so far. I've been willing to play bad teams who are getting lines that are too generous (something I didn't do in the past as confidently) and I've also been willing to pay for teams that, although requiring a lot of juice, are solid values even at a high price (another thing I've been fearful of in the past).

One last thing which I've done this year which I haven't done in the past is a willingness to play a lot of games. I generally flat bet my plays for 1 unit. My highest unit plays this year have been to win 1.5 units. So far I've had a lot of success in being able to pick a high percentage of winners, but occasionally when I start to differ my units I end up screwing up (see last night's 4-4 performance).

I do leave out some of the info I factor in, but I try to put in as much as time permits. Sometimes I'll also see some good info in another thread and choose not to put it in my own thread just because I don't like the perception of somewhat copying another poster. Not sure how much that helps though, especially for someone who puts in as much time as you obviously do.

Edit: I just read your second response and realized you said forget it. Either way, BOL all season and I'm sure I'll continue to enjoy your writeups. Thanks.

Ok, this may turn out to be another very big card today. Going to play a number of my leans, but I've had success with my big cards so far and hope to continue that trend.

Tampa Bay +150: Anticipating this matchup, last night I fully intended to make the Yankees a play for the second day in a row. I figured . . . the Yankees have lost 4 straight, they're not getting any pitching, they're going to be relying on a guy coming back from the DL, and they'll be facing one of the nastiest young pitchers in baseball. How could this line not be around even money? Well color me surprised by getting 1.5 to 1 on Kazmir.

Putting up a 4.18 ERA over 5 starts against this Yankees offense has to be seen as impressive, especially when you factor in that 3 of them have been in Yankee Stadium (5.40 ERA @ NY). Plus, some of the bigger Yankee bats have been flat out bad against Kazmir in the past. This kid was unhittable at home last year (1.91 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, and .191 BAA at home). If there's a spot for the Yankees' offense to slow down a bit, this may be it.

Finally, I just don't know what the public expects out of Wang tonight. He's not going to blow away this tough Tampa offense, as that has never been his style. He's not a great control guy. He's not a guy who consistently keeps guys off the bases. So what is he going to do tonight in 5-6 innings against one of the best offenses in baseball right now? Is he going to completely shut them down? Honestly, I think that's asking too much. I'll take the young phenom at home with these odds. 1 unit to win 1.50.

Chicago (NL) -152: I just keep going back to these Cubs because I continue to think the public puts too much stock in their poor play lately. I just don't think they can continue screwing up and getting bad breaks. I expected this line to be around -160 to -165. I wish I had jumped on it earlier when it was around -145 or so, but I snoozed and lost. I still think there's some value here and will back Rich Hill at this price against almost anyone until he shows signs of being human.

Suppan started 2 games in Wrigley last year and put up a 6.75 ERA while only lasting a total of 9.1 innings. He had a WHIP of 2.14 and a .BAA of .381. Guys like Barrett, Jones, Lee and A-Ram have had a good deal of success against him and I expect that to continue tonight. 1.52 units to win 1.

Cincinatti +133: I had to really give this one some thought, as the Reds are one of the worst offensive teams in baseball. They do have a bit of power, but aside from that there's not much there. I do, however, really like Harang's stuff and think he is one of few pitchers who are consistently undervalued. St. Louis, on the other hand, is obviously a prime candidate for overvaluation all season. The public is going to bet them no matter what, especially at home against the lowly Reds right? Well I think the books expected this and set the line a bit high. The Cards are simply not winning at home or anywhere yet this year. Until they start playing like the Cards of last year, I'll continue to bet against them more than I bet on them. 1 unit to win 1.33.

San Diego +134: Like I've done with most of the 40+ pitchers this year, I'm going to fade Randy Johnson until he proves that he still has it. San Diego has impressed me lately and Wells has already put up a good performance against the D-Backs this season. Arizona is coming off 4 straight losses and don't show any signs of improvement (3 runs in last 3 games). 1 unit to win 1.34.

____________________________________

I still may play the Nats tonight. I've backed off the Toronto and Anaheim plays after reading some good writeups on those games. Will update if anything changes.

Total card:

LA Dodgers -147: 1.47 units to win 1.
Houston +110: 1 unit to win 1.10.
Baltimore -106: 1.06 units to win 1.
Tampa Bay +150: 1 unit to win 1.50.
Chicago (NL) -152: 1.52 units to win 1.
Cincinatti +133: 1 unit to win 1.33.
San Diego +134: 1 unit to win 1.34.

Jibba said:

Little bit of luck and a little bit of learning from watching the real experts here. :lol: For fear of leaving someone out indadvertently, I won't name them, but basically I've tried to see how others here come up with valuations for teams over the long term and in any given situation. I really don't expect my run to last forever, but I just feel like I have a very solid grasp on the games we've seen so far. I've been willing to play bad teams who are getting lines that are too generous (something I didn't do in the past as confidently) and I've also been willing to pay for teams that, although requiring a lot of juice, are solid values even at a high price (another thing I've been fearful of in the past).

One last thing which I've done this year which I haven't done in the past is a willingness to play a lot of games. I generally flat bet my plays for 1 unit. My highest unit plays this year have been to win 1.5 units. So far I've had a lot of success in being able to pick a high percentage of winners, but occasionally when I start to differ my units I end up screwing up (see last night's 4-4 performance).

I do leave out some of the info I factor in, but I try to put in as much as time permits. Sometimes I'll also see some good info in another thread and choose not to put it in my own thread just because I don't like the perception of somewhat copying another poster. Not sure how much that helps though, especially for someone who puts in as much time as you obviously do.

Edit: I just read your second response and realized you said forget it. Either way, BOL all season and I'm sure I'll continue to enjoy your writeups. Thanks.

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Yep, definitely some solid posters in the mix that have a great grasp on talent and line evaluations.

I too have been wussing out a bit having previously limited my plays to 1 play a day...losing out on a lot of winners. I think this is definitely one of the most important things in any gambling endeavor (poker, sports betting)...That is, maximizing your wins as much as you minimize your losses.. I certainly was more focused on minimizing losses, and as a result, put a lot more pressure on myself to hit a very selective amount of games.

I have not yet played the huge juicers just because I focus the majority of my time on emotional/motivational advantages. Usually a team that dominates another team is not psyched up for the game, but their talent may just be too much for the opponent to handle.

Your support is much appreciated. I've been supremely disappointed with my season start, and think it's mainly a result of me only playing 1 game per day up until last night, and also making the wrong decisions at times. Its amazing what one supportive statement can do when you're 7-8 on the season, so thanks for your confidence.


:toast: