MLB: Tuesday April 24th Plays

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Tigers @ Angels
Play: Tigers -106
Intrinsic Value: -129
Consider Betting Price: -112
Comment:

Prior to seasons start, I felt that Bonderman was one of the young pitchers in the league primed for a breakout year. If his first four starts are any indication, it looks like its going to be the case. He has shown great command of his pitches, walking just three batters in his first four starts, and his fastball, slider combination has overpowered each lineup he has faced. He has a good chance to make it five solid starts in a row, as he faces a team he has had past success against and fundamentally matches up well against. His style of pitching just dominates right handed hitters, which does not bode well for a lineup that is not a threat from the left side. It is also a lineup that relies more on one bat, Guerrero, more than any other lineup in baseball. This does not bode well for their chances in this game, as he has struggled against Bonderman throughout his career, coming into today’s game with just one hit and five punch outs in just eleven at bats. Bonderman has been getting progressively better pitching on the road, and was one of the better road pitchers in baseball last year. He has already put forth two solid road outings this year as well. He is backed by one of the deeper and better bullpens in the league, which is also a bullpen that matches up well against this lineup that can be overpowered.

Escobar is once again in the midst of an injury plagued season, and is fresh off the DL with shoulder problems. He has been prone to coming off the DL rusty and will be on a limited pitch count in this game. He has also been known to struggle most during day games. Although he is backed by one of the best bullpens in the league, it has not pitched that way. They had to pitch a lot of innings last night, and four of their six pitchers have struggled on the mound of late. This does not bode well for their chances, as Escobar is not expected to go deep into this game. It is only a matter of time until this dangerous Tigers lineup plays to form, and are one of the few lineups in baseball that are more dangerous hitting on the road.
 

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Blue Jays @ Red Sox
Play: Red Sox +114
Intrinsic Value: -125
Consider Betting Price: -112
Comment:

I didn’t think I would see the Red Sox undervalued at home all season, but if there was going to be a game in which linesmakers put them with an undervalued price tag it was going to be a game against Holliday and with Taverez on the mound. Although Holliday has been profitable for bettors, he is still construed as an overvalued pitcher and a pitcher likely to produce negative returns going forward. Although he dominated the Red Sox just a week ago, it was away from Fenway where they are not much of a potent lineup. There was not a team in baseball that gave Holliday more problems last year than the Red Sox, especially when he had to face them in this park. He finished out the year with a five plus ERA against them, and does not have impressive career totals against this team. There is just one hitter that Holliday can say he has the upper hand against in this lineup, which is rare for him when facing a team in his division. He is backed by an injured bullpen that is a liability on the mound once he leaves the game. The Red Sox are one of the better teams at accumulating high pitch counts on the opponents starting pitchers, which can take its toll even on a workhorse like Holliday, which should make it hard for him to prevent his bullpen from playing a key role in this game.

I am not a big fan of betting on Taverez, but I feel his risks are fully factored into the market price. He actually put forth a decent start last week in Toronto, where the Blue Jays are a much more dangerous lineup. This is a series where home field advantage is magnified, as both teams have some of the highest disparities of productive when comparing home and away numbers the last three years. Taverez has also always been a much more effective pitcher at home, and has solid career numbers against this ball club. He has had past success against a few of their key hitters as well. The Red Sox two best bullpen pitchers had the day off yesterday which is a huge advantage, as Taverez is not expected to go deep into this game.
 

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Yankees @ Devil Rays
Play: Devil Rays +148
Intrinsic Value: -114
Consider Betting Price: +102
Comment:
Granted this is a Yankees vs. Devil Rays game, but this line is way off. Granted the Yankees have the best lineup in baseball by a mile, but this team has a lot of holes, making their record not a huge surprise. The Devil Rays always play this team tough and have always been prone to raise their game to the level of their competition. Although Kazmir is off to a slow start, he still is one of the most talented young pitchers in baseball. He also has always been a much more effective pitcher at home, where he has reached a comfort level on his mound. He pitched the Yankees well last year, including a quality start against them at home. He has also dominated a few of their hitters, including the hottest hitter in baseball right now, as Arod is only 1 for 14 against him. In fact, ARod, Jeter, and Damon come into this game a combined 6 for 46 against him. Once he leaves, all I could do is hope that this game doesn’t get ugly, a risk that I am willing to take at this price.

Wang might be the best pitcher on the Yankees, but is simply overvalued in this spot. He is making his first start of the season, and will certainly be on a limited pitch count, which does not bode well for the Yankees chances. The Devil Rays bullpen is not the only bullpen in disarray right now, as the Yankees bullpen is overworked, struggling, and were once against overmatched against the Devil Rays yesterday. Being an elite sinkerball pitcher, Wang is able to get out of a lot of jams inducing the double play ground ball. However, being a ground ball pitcher is not the most ideal thing going up against this fast Devil Rays lineup on this fast turf. It could actually be a detriment. The Devil Rays have one of the most underrated lineups in baseball, and are extremely dangerous in this home park. Wang, like Kazmir, is a young pitcher that has performed a lot better in his home starts throughout his career. Hopefully the Devil Rays could once again score enough runs to make up for their huge bullpen disadvantage.
 

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Rockies @ Mets
Play: Rockies +192
Intrinsic Value: +129
Consider Betting Price: +155
Comment:
I hate betting against this Mets team, but I am willing to bet against any team when being backed by this much value. Hernandez simply does not warrant such odds. He is one of the most volatile pitchers in baseball that could implode in any game. Although he is off to a solid start, it simply lacks sustainability. He has yet to face a lineup that is terribly talented from the left side, and is extremely vulnerable against such, as he still hasn’t figured out how to get left handed hitters out. Although the Rockies are not loaded from the left side, they will put three dangerous left handed hitters in the lineup, two of them that can already claim ownage on Hernandez. The Rockies have one of the more potent lineups in the National League, and have been underachieving all season. It is just a mater of time until they break out and play to their potential. It was just two day ago when they hit a savvy soft throwing veteran in Maddux. Although the Mets have one of the best bullpens in the league, it is not as good as I originally thought, and has been struggling as of late on the mound.

Cook continues to be one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball. Being a premier sinkerball pitcher is also ideal going up against a lineup that has so much power spread across the lineup. Cook has performed well on the road this year and has put forth solid career totals against this team. Although he is vulnerable against left handed hitting, which can prove costly against this Mets lineup, all but one left handed hitter on the team does not have much of a past history against him, which might take a couple of go arounds to take advantage of this deficiency. The only left handed bat with a past history against him, Green, has struggled hitting him. Although the Rockies bullpen is not one of the better ones, it is a bullpen that has become much better now that they got Hawkins out of the set up role. They also have an ideal closer to curtail the effects of this lineup. I feel the Rockies have a much better chance of winning this game, compared to what the market price reflects.
 

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Brewers @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -146
Intrinsic Value: -176
Consider Betting Price: -160
Comment:

Although the Cubs have taken ten years off my life in the last two days, I feel that they will reward patient bettors that still have faith that they will turn things around this season. With an overworked bullpen, it is ideal to have a solid pitching on the mound, and that is exactly what they are going to get as they send the most dominant pitcher in baseball year to date on the mound. Hill is also a pitcher that matches up perfectly against this free swinging Brewers lineup, as he can pick apart impatient lineups with his curveball. He already dominated them once this season, going seven innings and allowing just one hit. That start was no fluke, as he has solid success against them last year as well, and has allowed just seven hits in over 18 innings of work. He has performed much better at home in his short career, and has gone at least seven innings in all three starts. Having a struggling backend of the bullpen being overworked might be a short term blessing, as the Cubs front end bullpen has performed much better and might be forced to play the backend role in this game. Hill is just as hard on right handed hitters as he is left handed hitters, which should curtail the balance effect the Brewers have in their lineup.

One of the Cubs hitting problems this year is their propensity to wait on fastballs and try to hit them out of the stadium. Opponent pitching has taken advantage of this deficiency by pitching backwards and not giving them a lot of fastballs. Having a pitcher like Suppan on the mound might be a blessing, as this finesse pitcher might prevent the Cubs for waiting on fastballs. He has struggled on the road the last couple of years, and although he has put forth solid career totals against the Cubs, they are misleading. There are three key hitters in the lineup that have dominated him throughout his career, while a couple of other hitters have put forth respectable numbers as well. The Brewers bullpen is not as good as what they showed yesterday, and having pitched eight innings yesterday will be short handed in today’s game.
 

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Reds @ Cardinals
Play: Reds +134
Intrinsic Value: +104
Consider Betting Price: +128
Comment:
The Reds have been one of the most overvalued teams all year, and their recent struggles have finally allowed them to come with some value in this game. It is only a matter of time until Wells comes back to earth, and this might be a good spot for him to do such. He showed that he could get hit by left handed dominated lineups in his last start, and although he has pitched left handers effectively this year, has struggled throughout his career against them. This does not bode well for his chances in tonight’s game, as he is up against a lineup whose talent predominantly comes from the left side. He has not had past success against the Reds, and has struggled against some of their hitters, including Griffey, who is expected back in the lineup. He is backed by a bullpen that is not as good as last years.

I have no problem backing Harrang when getting value. He was one of the best road pitchers in baseball last year, finishing out the year with a sub three road ERA. Being a fly ball pitcher, pitching in this park should also help his cause. One solid game is not enough evidence that the Cardinals lineup has gotten out of their season long funk. Harrang does not have impressive numbers against this team, but has in fact dominated some of their hitters, including Rolen, who is coming off a five hit game, as he has managed just 3 hits in 25 at bats against him. The Reds bullpen is bad and is struggling, but Harrang is one of the biggest workhorses in the league and does a good job going deep into games. Pitching on six days rest should only improve his chances of going deep into this game.
 

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Padres @ Diamondbacks
Play: Padres +136
Intrinsic Value: +115
Consider Betting Price: +134
Comment:
It seems like the public is quickly forgetting how painful Johnson was on his backers last year and that he clearly showed that he is not the same pitcher he once was. I have no problem betting against him in his first start coming off back surgery when the price is right. There is no doubt that he will be on a limited pitch count, and the Diamondbacks bullpen will play a key role in this game, which does not bode well for his chances. Johnson proved last year that he is no longer an intimidating factor on the mound, lacks the confidence he once had, is prone to the long ball and the walk. Until he proves this to be no longer the case, I will assume it will to an extent. Although he has dominated the Padres and a few of their hitters, these numbers were accumulated when he was a much more effective pitcher.

I am not a big fan of betting on Wells, especially in his road outings. However, I have no problem betting on him when he is up against a young lineup that prefers power pitchers, as his savvy style could still take advantage of the lack of experience some lineups bring to the table. Wells is coming off his best outing of the season, where he allowed just three hits in seven innings of work, and it was against this same Dimaondbacks lineup. The Diamondbacks are young, and have already shown to be streaky and feed off of emotion. Right now they are on a downward trend, and lack momentum, coming into this game losing their last four, and scoring just three in their last three games. Wells is also backed by the best bullpen in the National League, which should give the Padres the clear edge in the later innings.
 

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Giants @ Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -147
Intrinsic Value: -184
Consider Betting Price: -167
Comment:
Don’t put too much stock into Morris’s fast start. He proved the last three years that he is in a downward trend in his career and clearly past his prime. Tonight is a good spot for him to get a reality check, as he is up against a lineup that has always had success against him. Morris comes into this game with a career mid 5 ERA against the Dodgers, and was dominated by them last year. He has never been as an effective pitcher on the road, and has been getting progressively worse pitching away from home. Last year, his road ERA reached the mid fives, which includes a poor outing in his only start in this park. It is no surprise that there are a few hitters that have had past success against him in tonight’s lineup. Once Morris leaves, the Dodgers should still have run scoring options as the Giants have a sub par bullpen.

Lowe continues to be one of the better valued home pitchers in baseball. Last year he was one of the better home pitchers in the league, and has put forth elite pitching home numbers throughout his career, and he comes into today’s game with a career 3.38 home ERA. This is a good spot for him to continue his home success, as he is up against a team that he has dominated in the past, including a dominant outing against them this year. He has produced a mid 3 ERA against the Giants in over fifty innings of work, and has had past success against a few of their hitters, including Bonds, who is hitless in six tries. Being backed by the better bullpen should allow the Dodgers to have the better pitcher on the mound throughout this game.
 

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Almost made my first official play against my Sox today and now I come in to see you're backing them for the first time this year? Interesting. I also had a pretty strong lean on LA before pulling back because of the Escobar injury. He's had great success against them in the past, but coming off an injury I just can't see him going more than 5 or maybe 6 tonight. As for the rest, I'm either on them or am leaning in that direction.

BOL and thanks as always.
 

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tough luck on the cubs last night buffett. this team is killing me. i dont think ive won a game involving them yet...grrr. however, im on them again today. rich hill is still being undervalued. ill keep riding this guy til the linesmakers wake up. i was shocked at seeing how low halladay and the bjays are, especially against tavarez. much like hernandez of mets, i find him to be very volatile. might stay away from that game. like all the other ones...little iffy on the yanks. but you make good points. ill probably play all these except the red sox...bjays tend to give them fits anyway. ill probably be on the white sox. vazquez has pitched very well. pretty good price for one of the best teams in the al against the worst. bannister has very few starts in his career and i dont trust him against this lineup. first start probably wont be long and the royals might have the worst bullpen in the baseball.

do you ever wager on games over -200. i really like the phillies to continue their hot play over a horrific nats team. ill probably take a shot on the runline.

for the totals, i dont think they can put the runs high enough for the braves and marlins. marlins bats are smoking hot right now and i dont think redman is the man to stop them. on the othe side you have a young pitcher who has been shelled so far and whom the braves have seen this year.

in the mariners/rangers game you have two winless pitchers to date. washburn's first start on the road this year. was horrible last year on the road. padilla on the other hand already got spanked by the mariners in a pitchers ballpark earlier this year. weather warming up in texas so i think both offenses put up big numbers. gagne out for the rangers doesnt help either.

1-1 in the nba last night hitting the rockets and just missing the under. that brings me to 8-2 in the nba playoffs.

tonight a line i dont get once agains is the nets which is up to 5.5. buy the hook up to 6. again nets have experience, three all stars and underrated role players. when healthy they are simply the better team. considering the lakers if i can get 10, currently at 9. i think kobe learned something from the first game...get your teammates involved and you have a chance. they beat phoenix once this year and lost the other games by 5,8 ,8 ,8. i may buy it up to 10. gl buffett, jibba and the rest
 

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Thank you for taking the time to share your expertise and picks.

:money8:

:aktion033
 

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tough luck on the cubs last night buffett. this team is killing me. i dont think ive won a game involving them yet...grrr. however, im on them again today. rich hill is still being undervalued. ill keep riding this guy til the linesmakers wake up. i was shocked at seeing how low halladay and the bjays are, especially against tavarez. much like hernandez of mets, i find him to be very volatile. might stay away from that game. like all the other ones...little iffy on the yanks. but you make good points. ill probably play all these except the red sox...bjays tend to give them fits anyway. ill probably be on the white sox. vazquez has pitched very well. pretty good price for one of the best teams in the al against the worst. bannister has very few starts in his career and i dont trust him against this lineup. first start probably wont be long and the royals might have the worst bullpen in the baseball.

do you ever wager on games over -200. i really like the phillies to continue their hot play over a horrific nats team. ill probably take a shot on the runline.

for the totals, i dont think they can put the runs high enough for the braves and marlins. marlins bats are smoking hot right now and i dont think redman is the man to stop them. on the othe side you have a young pitcher who has been shelled so far and whom the braves have seen this year.

in the mariners/rangers game you have two winless pitchers to date. washburn's first start on the road this year. was horrible last year on the road. padilla on the other hand already got spanked by the mariners in a pitchers ballpark earlier this year. weather warming up in texas so i think both offenses put up big numbers. gagne out for the rangers doesnt help either.

1-1 in the nba last night hitting the rockets and just missing the under. that brings me to 8-2 in the nba playoffs.

tonight a line i dont get once agains is the nets which is up to 5.5. buy the hook up to 6. again nets have experience, three all stars and underrated role players. when healthy they are simply the better team. considering the lakers if i can get 10, currently at 9. i think kobe learned something from the first game...get your teammates involved and you have a chance. they beat phoenix once this year and lost the other games by 5,8 ,8 ,8. i may buy it up to 10. gl buffett, jibba and the rest

The Cubs are killing me too. Its now that they are losing, but the way that they are losing which makes it tough to take.

-200 teams can be undervalued, but it rarely happens. Most of the time you are dealing with the superior team, and books know the public will not bet the inferior team no matter the price. So more times than not, they slap on 20 more basis points in anticipation of a lopsided wagering distribution. I didnt handicapping the Nats game because of Bergman, but my guess is that there is no value with the Phillies at that price.

On the surface, the Blue Jays looks cheap at that price. But after the quantification process was complete, that is simply not the case. The Red Sox are finally undervalued, as books no the public will shy away from them with Taverez on the mound against Holliday.
 

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I've looked at that Tigers game a hundred times now, and I think I was giving too much credit to Escobar's history against Detroit. While I do love the way the Angels have been playing, I don't want to push my luck going against Bonderman. I think I'm going to do an about face and follow you on that and the Red Sox (how can I go against them the 1 time you see value in them?).

This is exactly why I try to get my plays in before yours. Once I read your writeups, they're very tough to go against. :lol: But at least I was with you for the most part on my plays.

BOL tonight and thanks as always.
 

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