Why Calvin Johnson will be selected #1 overall

crunch99 · Apr 24, 2007

Because Al Davis is senile enough to do it. Because when Trent Green is traded to Miami, Culpepper becomes available for maybe 3rd or 4th rd pick. He's pretty much a carbon copy of Jamarcus Russell and would rejuvinate Randy Moss' career.

If not, the draft is full of great prospects such as Trent Edwards, Kevin Kolb, Jordan Palmer and others. So they can draft the "best player" in the draft and draft a future QB in the bargain rounds.
Who will be the first pick in the NFL draft? The pick currently belongs to the Oakland Raiders. However if the pick is traded, the wager will be graded as whoever is selected in this position. No Parlays. Max $100

JaMarcus Russell -245
Calvin Johnson +190<-----Taking a shot
Any Other Player +700

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2007

Trent Edwards blows. Teams would have a much better success rate if they subscribed to one simple theory.

If a guy sucks in college, he will suck in the NFL.

That said, the scenario you describe is the rumor going around Bay Area sports talk shows. Fits the description of a modern day Raider; a washed up big name former star.

crunch99 · Apr 24, 2007

Dude, they wouldn't be the Raiders without signing "wash-up" QBs.... remember Jim Plunkett, Jeff Hostetler & Rich Gannon? They all had great success with the Raiders.

OTOH, Raiders have never had any luck with QBs they drafted in the 1st RD.... remember Marc Wilson and Todd Marinovich? Both momumental BUSTS. So Al is wary of drafting a QB that high.

Trent Edwards wasn't that bad in college. I mean he was far better than Matt Cassell, who hardly ever played at USC before being drafted by the Patriots. Sure, if Trent had set NCAA records and won 4 championships, we'd be talking about Trent or Calvin as the #1 pick right now. But the reality is, he's got the NFL prototypical body (6-4, 220) and his stock has been rising due to impressive workouts.

Also Drew Stanton is a good prospect.

crunch99 · Apr 24, 2007

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2007

But the reality is, he's got the NFL prototypical body (6-4, 220) and his stock has been rising due to impressive workouts.

This is EXACTLY the problem. Teams get hard-ons for guys that look great in shorts and jerseys that say QB 57 on them and ignore the on field product.

Boller is the best example I can think of off the top of my head. He stunk for 4 years but oooooh, he can throw a ball through the goal posts from his knees from mid field. Big f*ing deal, he f*ing stinks and there was plenty of video evidence of it from the 40+ games he played in college.

Derrick Gibson, Mike Mamula, Akili Smith, all these friggin workout warriors that can't play football. No one knows how good Matt Cassell is, just like no one knew how good Brad Johnson was. Neither guy played much during college. Hell, Cassell road pine behind two Heisman winners and top 10 picks. For all we know he could have been the second best QB in college his entire career. One thing we do know, Kyle Boller wasn't the 19th best player in the draft and if Trent Edwards is the 3rd best QB, no one should draft a QB after Quinn until the 5th round.

crunch99 · Apr 24, 2007

For one thing, Akili Smith was GREAT in college, so was Ryan Leaf, so was Boeller, so was Tim Couch, so was Andre Ware, so was David Klingler. And other assortment of great college QBs that never panned out. But we're not talking about 1st rd QBs..... when you're drafting in the bargain rounds you look for the best athletes with the most physical attributes. 

Doesn't matter what numbers you put up in college. I mean Timmy Chang set every NCAA passing record but didn't even get drafted due to his physical limitations. If he were 6-4 220, you better believe he would be playing in the NFL.

After Russell and Quinn, there is no clear cut #3. Which is why you probably won't see another QB drafted until 3rd rd or later.

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2007

I never said the reverse of my initial statement held true. There are innumerable guys that were great in college that stunk in the NFL. I'm in no way saying everyone who stunk in the NFL stunk in college, there are plenty of busts and poor choices.

However, I really do defy you to find a guy that wasn't good in college that was good in the NFL. I have really tried to think of someone and haven't been able to do so.

Guys that never played don't count either, so Cassell, Brad Johnson and Terrell Davis won't work. We had no idea how good any of them were coming out of college.

Boller was awful in college. He improved under Tedford, but the guy stunk for 3 full years and had a decent senior year.

Smith only played one season and he really wasn't great.

FWIW, I recently saw someone's mock draft, don't recall if it was Kiper but it was an ESPN guy, and they had Edwards going top of round 2. That is just dumb.

JakeT. · Apr 24, 2007

fhmesq44 said:
Trent Edwards blows. Teams would have a much better success rate if they subscribed to one simple theory.

If a guy sucks in college, he will suck in the NFL.

That said, the scenario you describe is the rumor going around Bay Area sports talk shows. Fits the description of a modern day Raider; a washed up big name former star.

Not entirely true. A guy like Jay Cutler who had the arm, height, and accuracy was just trapped behind a crappy line in a tough conference.

However, a guy that is behind a good line and still sucks, I'd agree with.

Whoever the Raiders put at QB is going to look like a turd until they address their offensive line problems. QBs don't like 1 step drops much.

JakeT. · Apr 24, 2007

The Raiders need to get Joe Thomas if they want to win anytime soon. The defense may be the best in the league considering all the crappy field position they had to work with last year. They did incredible.

The one big weakness is the offensive line. You can spend all you want on skilled position players but it doesn't do any good if you are on your back before your WR can make a move. See David Carr in Houston. Hell, sign Carr and draft Joe Thomas and the Raiders are 50/50 to make the playoffs.

At least Carr is used to being on his back and has shown he can play through pain. Thomas will immediately help the running and passing and Carr will have slightly more time to throw than he is used to. He's a talented QB and has it all, minus an offensive line his entire career.

crunch99 · Apr 24, 2007

Cassell did play, in mop up duty mostly, but did play. I remember him replacing Leinart in a game against Wash St. His first pass was intercepted and returned for a TD. Then he fumbled on the next drive. He was then benched and replaced by Leinart, even though SC had a 42-13 lead. He pretty much sucked every other chance he got. So I was shocked when the Patriots drafted him. But like I said, they drafted him for his size.

Marc Bulger wasn't a great college QB.
Brett Favre wasn't a great college QB.

crunch99 · Apr 24, 2007

jakethompson said:
The Raiders need to get Joe Thomas if they want to win anytime soon. The defense may be the best in the league considering all the crappy field position they had to work with last year. They did incredible.

The one big weakness is the offensive line. You can spend all you want on skilled position players but it doesn't do any good if you are on your back before your WR can make a move. See David Carr in Houston. Hell, sign Carr and draft Joe Thomas and the Raiders are 50/50 to make the playoffs.

At least Carr is used to being on his back and has shown he can play through pain. Thomas will immediately help the running and passing and Carr will have slightly more time to throw than he is used to. He's a talented QB and has it all, minus an offensive line his entire career.

Carr already signed with Carolina. And no way Raiders draft Joe Thomas after the whole debacle with Robert Gallery, whom they drafted #2 overall and has been a huge bust.

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2007

jakethompson said:
Not entirely true. A guy like Jay Cutler who had the arm, height, and accuracy was just trapped behind a crappy line in a tough conference.

However, a guy that is behind a good line and still sucks, I'd agree with.

Whoever the Raiders put at QB is going to look like a turd until they address their offensive line problems. QBs don't like 1 step drops much.

IMO, Cutler isn't even a good example. He improved every year (something Edwards hasn't done) and they actually won games while he was there. They won 5 games his senior year for the 2nd time in 12 seasons.

You are right about the Raiders OL problems. BTW, Andrew Walter was another guy that wasn't good in college. I don't care how many TDs and yards he had. Anyone who watched him knows he was horribly inaccurate, threw a ton of picks and made bad decisions.

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2007

crunch99 said:
Cassell did play, in mop up duty mostly, but did play. I remember him replacing Leinart in a game against Wash St. His first pass was intercepted and returned for a TD. Then he fumbled on the next drive. He was then benched and replaced by Leinart, even though SC had a 42-13 lead. He pretty much sucked every other chance he got. So I was shocked when the Patriots drafted him. But like I said, they drafted him for his size.

Marc Bulger wasn't a great college QB.
Brett Favre wasn't a great college QB.

I didn't say great. I said find someone who stunk in college and was good in the NFL. Brady wasn't great either, but he was good.

JakeT. · Apr 24, 2007

crunch99 said:
Carr already signed with Carolina. And no way Raiders draft Joe Thomas after the whole debacle with Robert Gallery, whom they drafted #2 overall and has been a huge bust.

I'm out of the loop. Didn't hear about Carr. I'm 100% positive whoever starts at QB for Oakland is going to be labeled a bust since they won't have time to throw. Work on that line before you take a QB IMO. I don't know how many times these GMs need to see this before they pay attention.

And yea, Gallery probably will scare them although he was the right pick at the time. They just got a bum deal, on, well, a bum.

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2007

jakethompson said:
I'm out of the loop. Didn't hear about Carr. I'm 100% positive whoever starts at QB for Oakland is going to be labeled a bust since they won't have time to throw. Work on that line before you take a QB IMO. I don't know how many times these GMs need to see this before they pay attention.

And yea, Gallery probably will scare them although he was the right pick at the time. They just got a bum deal, on, well, a bum.

They have actually signed 3 OL this off season and are changing their blocking scheme to a zone blocking scheme like Denver uses. Whether it works, who knows, but it can't be any worse.

TonyMar · Apr 24, 2007

The Raiders...

The same team that has gone 15-49 since the '03 SuperBowl...

Hard to imagine them not messing up this draft ...:lol:

View attachment 2726

crunch99 · Apr 24, 2007

What's your criteria for "stunk in college"? Trent didn't have great numbers but he did play for a shit team... I believe both his starting WRs were out almost the entire season. But his QB rating the past three seasons were 110 and up.

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2007

crunch99 said:
What's your criteria for "stunk in college"? Trent didn't have great numbers but he did play for a shit team... I believe both his starting WRs were out almost the entire season. But his QB rating the past three seasons were 110 and up.

110 is AWFUL in college. His best season is 139, where he was 30th in the nation as a junior (interestingly, ahead of Russell), his soph season (110.29) he was 94th in the nation, last season he didn't qualify but his 120.55 would have put him 72nd.

He didn't improve and was barely keeping his job last season before getting hurt. While I don't put as much weight in stats as some people, 94th, 30th and 72nd in the nation in passing efficiency isn't a good trend and neither is not improving. His TD/INT ration is 36/33.

Some guys you watch, just know they stink and the stats bear that out, other guys you watch (like Andrew Walter) and you realize the stats lie and they won't be good in the NFL.

Look, I'm not right one everyone, I thought Eric Zeier and Cade McNown would be good. But the handy rule of stinking in college = stinking in the NFL is a pretty good one.

fhmesq44 · Apr 24, 2007

Sorry, I didn't really answer the question. I don't have any objective criteria. You just watch games and you can tell when a guy is good or not, just as simple as watching games and making an evaluation based on the on field product and not combine results.

RobFunk · Apr 24, 2007

TonyMar said:
The Raiders...

The same team that has gone 15-49 since the '03 SuperBowl...

Hard to imagine them not messing up this draft ...:lol:

My thoughts exactly.

Why Calvin Johnson will be selected #1 overall

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