Jibba's Wed MLB

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Favorites: 52-25 for +18.06 units
Underdogs: 19-9 +15.64 units
Total: 71-34 for +33.70

Well, I screwed up yesterday. Went 3-4 and lost a little under a half a unit. But I feel great about today. Lots of games I like and will be adding some soon. Want to get the 1.5 unit play out on the Braves now because this line will only rise IMO.

Atlanta -145: I've been hesitant to pay the juice for Hudson so far this season. But no more. The guy is pitching lights out and has never lost to Florida. In 8 starts, he's 5-0 against the Marlins (52 IPs) with a 1.90 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a .224 BAA. In 4 starts in Dolphin Stadium he's 3-0 with a 2.19 ERA, a 1.30 WHIP, and a .239 BAA. While he's put up slightly better numbers at home throughout his career, he clearly isn't that affected by playing on the road.

Olsen is taking the hill for the Marlins. While he's got a lot of promise, I don't think he can tame this offense the way they're playing. He's had a lot of trouble against the Braves in the past (1-3, 11.02 ERA, 2.02 WHIP, & .328 BAA in 4 starts) and this offense has never been hotter. The Braves have been winning at home and on the road so I don't think that's a big factor here. Both offenses are playing great right now, but we know that Hudson can shut this team down. This number is only going to get higher but is readily available on Matchbook. 2.18 to win 1.5.
 

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Good call Jibba. Hudson is one of few pithchers I look for as he is just plain.....GOOOD!

Keep up the good write ups - always looking forward to them.

.
 

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Philadelphia -175: I ended up staying away from the Nats yesterday but I thought it was a perfect spot for a letdown. And that's just what happened, although the Phillies were able to scrap back and pull out the win late. I think they've got it out of their system and will light up one of my favorite pitchers to fade right now. I was always high on Patterson, but since his injury he's just not the same pitcher. I guess that's to be expected, but the lines keep daring people to gamble that he'll finally show up again. I just don't see it happening against the hot Phillies offense. During their 4 game winning streak, they've scored 4, 9, 11, and 6. And every game was against a pitcher with better stuff than Patterson right now. Add to this that Patterson has not had much success in the past against Philly. Jon Lieber is Jon Lieber. He may not be great, but he's still got enough stuff to keep this weak Nats offense at bay. 1.75 units to win 1.

San Diego -103: You just don't hit a guy like Peavy that hard twice in the span of a week. I think San Diego is playing very well and still am not sold that Webb is back to his old Cy Young self. In the matchup last week between these two young pitchers, Webb finally came out of his shell and fanned 13 while Peavy was knocked around a bit. So should we expect a repeat? Not the way these two offenses are playing right now. Arizona simply is not scoring a lot of runs against anyone, never mind against one of the best pitchers in baseball. But the Padres have scored 7 or more in 4 of their last 5. And they've shown so far this year that they can win on the road (7-5). I'll take the better team with the better pitcher at basically even money. 1.03 units to win 1.
 

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Good call Jibba. Hudson is one of few pithchers I look for as he is just plain.....GOOOD!

Keep up the good write ups - always looking forward to them.

.

Thanks man. Feels so much like a "public" play the way it just jumped out at me, but I'm ready to start riding this guy if he's going to keep this up. BOL.
 

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Milwaukee +116: I may get burned by this, but the Cubs just shouldn't be favored over Ben Sheets and the streaking Brewers right now the way they're playing. We may see another disappointing performance by Sheets today (although I certainly hope not), but will the Cubs really be able to take advantage? I'm going to continue to push with Sheets because I really believe I'll be rewarded in the end. This guy's stuff is too nasty for him to stay down for too long. Lilly has been very solid so far this year, but I think this Brewers offense can hit anyone right now. 1 unit to win 1.16.

St. Louis -123: The Cards finally pick up their second home win of the season tonight. And Braden Looper will have both of them. Looper has been pitching very well so far this season and he gets to face a Reds team with serious hitting issues. Cincinatti so far this season is batting .240 with an OBP of .319. It's all well and good if they can hit homeruns, but they need to be able to get guys on base and they're not doing that right now.

Bronson Arroyo takes the hill for the Reds, and as usual, he's being overvalued. He's never had great success facing the Cardinals (2-3 in 7 starts with a 5.23 ERA, a 1.47 WHIP, and a .281 BAA. I just don't think this is going to turn into the kind of game where Arroyo has the run support to make the mistakes he's prone to making. And if this game turns into a battle of the bullpens, I like my chances with any bullpen other than the Reds'. 1.23 units to win 1.

To round out the NL today, where a lot of games stuck out, I have leans on the Mets and Giants. Will be back with a couple AL games.
 

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Boston -121: I road the O's for awhile and they have done a pretty big 360 over the past couple days. They did not look good against Oakland and made stupid mistakes that wound up being very costly in both games. That's not a team you want to bet on. And now they face a Red Sox team that owned them all last season (Sox took 15 of 18 from the O's). A big part of Baltimore's failures against Boston last year was Daniel Cabrera. I think this kid has good stuff and think he is often undervalued, but I think he's a clear fade when facing the Red Sox. Over his career, Cabrera is 1-6 against the BoSox, with a 9.27 ERA, a 2.27 WHIP, and a .309 BAA (0-3, 13.91 ERA, 2.82 WHIP, and .348 BAA in 2006). And now he has to face a Boston team coming off of 2 straight losses and who send their ace to the hill. Give me Schilling (2-0 at Camden last year with a 4.12 ERA and a 1.12 WHIP) at this price just about any day. 1.21 units to win 1.

No other AL plays yet, but I currently have leans on NYY, Minnesota, Oakland and TB.
 

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NY Yankees -180: The Yanks are going to get back on track. It's only a matter of time. And I think a home game with their current ace on the staff against a hurting offense is a great spot for it. With the Bluejays injuries and knowing that nobody is going to shut down NY's offense, I think the line should be above 2-1. I know Toronto scored 10 yesterday and maybe that's enough for everyone to assume their offense will be ok. But I just can't agree. They beat Julian Tavares. And Tavares is not Andy Pettite. While Pettite hasn't been great against these Jays in the past (although he's 15-7 career against them), I think he knows what's at stake and will pitch a gem tonight.

Burnett is not the pitcher he was before coming to Toronto. He looked pretty good in his last start but he still had 5 walks against only 2 Ks. He just doesn't have the power he once did and his control isn't great. I think this Yankees offense will handle him easily. Lot of juice, but I still see good value. 1.8 units to win 1.

Will probably be adding a play on Oakland shortly.
 

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Oakland -127: I really don't know what I'm missing with this line. I loved my play on Texas yesterday primarily because it was Washburn on the road. Now he's playing a better team with a better starter and we get close to the same line?

Ok, first of all, Oakland has absolutely dominated the M's over the past couple years. They took 17 of 19 games between the 2 teams last year, and were 40-16 against Seattle between 2004 and 2006. Oakland has also won ten straight against Seattle at home. And it's not like Seattle is coming in on fire, having just snapped their 6 game losing streak.

On the hill today we have Washburn against Blanton. Another huge mismatch. Blanton is 6-1 against Seattle in his career, with a 2.85 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, and a .240 BAA. Last year alone he was 4-0 in 4 starts (29 IPs) with a 1.55 ERA, a 0.90 WHIP, and a .231 BAA. In two starts against the M's in Oakland, Blanton pitched 15 innings, giving up only 12 hits and 2 ERs. Washburn, on the other hand, is in a very fade-worthy spot. As I said yesterday, he was 2-9 on the road last year with a 5.88 ERA, a 1.48 WHIP, and a .291 BAA. In 3 starts against the A's, he was 0-2 with a 6.88 ERA, a 1.94 WHIP, and a .333 BAA. In his 2 starts in Oakland, he was 0-1, lasting only 10 innings while giving up 15 hits, 9 ERs, and striking out only 2 against 7 walks. When I add this all up, it's clearly a 1.5 unit play for me and potentially my first 2 unit play of the year. Line is much too low here. 1.91 units to win 1.5.
 

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love what you are doing right now jibba. great job and writeups. i agree with all your picks...but ill probably stay away from the cubs game. as soon as i finally bet against them, sure as hell they will win. had a nice night last night going 7-3-1, push on the nets buying the hook. that really looked like a cover the whole way.

although i was leaning towards the lakers last night. i did more research, wont bore you with the details, but i went double on the suns. that turned out golden.

the plays that really stood out today were the braves and a's. ill probably go run line on the yanks. wishing cleveland line was under 2 bills. not considering drays because of horrible road record, horrible pitcher and hot angels right now. no other teams stand out to me. considering over in the royals and maybe the white sox game. if i play those, ill give details as to why.

now stand at 8-2-1 in the nba. tonight i just cant stay away from the warriors at +10. nothing has changed matchup wise, but the oddsmakers are perplexed on what to do because of seedings i suppose? this year alone gs has beaten dallas by 3 in dallas, by 17 at gs, by 29 at gs and then by 12 in dallas...yet this big a dog? the moneyline as actually gone up to +500. take the generous points tonight and its worth a shot at a quarter of your normal play to take the ml. even if dallas plays their bigs more, i dont think it will matter. they outrebounded the warrios in total boards and offensive boards, but that didnt help. their bigs are no offensive threat. the key to this series is the defense on nowitzki and baron davis showing that he is indeed a superstar when healthy and motivated.

considering the nuggets plus 9. a team with 2 superstar players that can fill it up is hard to beat by double digits. ill let you know on this one.gl to everyone
 

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love what you are doing right now jibba. great job and writeups. i agree with all your picks...but ill probably stay away from the cubs game. as soon as i finally bet against them, sure as hell they will win. had a nice night last night going 7-3-1, push on the nets buying the hook. that really looked like a cover the whole way.

although i was leaning towards the lakers last night. i did more research, wont bore you with the details, but i went double on the suns. that turned out golden.

I feel the same way about the Cubs. I have a bad feeling about that one but I just can't stay away from the value I see in Sheets against a team playing that poorly.

Glad to hear you got the +6 on NJ last night as I had been thinking you got beat by the hook. Congrats on the good night though.

the plays that really stood out today were the braves and a's. ill probably go run line on the yanks. wishing cleveland line was under 2 bills. not considering drays because of horrible road record, horrible pitcher and hot angels right now. no other teams stand out to me. considering over in the royals and maybe the white sox game. if i play those, ill give details as to why.

Unfortunately, I just noticed Buffett is on the other side of both of these. I thought he might be against me on at least 1, but seeing him against both definitely makes me a little nervous. In fact, when I checked I was against 3 of his 4 picks, although I do like the Twins today.

now stand at 8-2-1 in the nba. tonight i just cant stay away from the warriors at +10. nothing has changed matchup wise, but the oddsmakers are perplexed on what to do because of seedings i suppose? this year alone gs has beaten dallas by 3 in dallas, by 17 at gs, by 29 at gs and then by 12 in dallas...yet this big a dog? the moneyline as actually gone up to +500. take the generous points tonight and its worth a shot at a quarter of your normal play to take the ml. even if dallas plays their bigs more, i dont think it will matter. they outrebounded the warrios in total boards and offensive boards, but that didnt help. their bigs are no offensive threat. the key to this series is the defense on nowitzki and baron davis showing that he is indeed a superstar when healthy and motivated.

considering the nuggets plus 9. a team with 2 superstar players that can fill it up is hard to beat by double digits. ill let you know on this one.gl to everyone

Looks good man. Will probably join you taking the points. Not sure yet if I want to put money on Dallas losing another one. BOL.
 

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I hate doing this, but after seeing the lineups I am going to take my first run line play of the year, on the Mets at +110. Will post this now and edit it to include my reasoning.

Edit: Ok, I generally do not play run lines. But I think this is a very good situation for it as I do not feel like paying -195. The fact that it's +110 as opposed to just even money definitely helps. But Colorado looks like they're sending up the white flag on this one. They're sitting on of their best hitters in Garrett Atkins and also have no Finley today. They're using Iannetta at catcher, although Torrealba has been the better hitter this year. I know the Mets are Alou and Lo Duca, but I think it's a very fair swap considering the guys out of the Rockies' order. I'll take Pelfrey -1.5. 1 unit to win 1.10.
 

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im actually on the mets runline to. im 3-0 for the season on runlines. i dont like them either, but ill pick my spots.

some more angles to support the warriors. dallas 2-7 last 9 home games ats. gs has won 6 straight games and are on an 18-5 ats run including 8-1 ats on the road. i keep looking for a reason to side with the mavs and i just cant find one. if you go back to last season when they were up 2-0 in the finals, they have been bad in the playoffs. dirk simply isnt a clutch player that can take games over and the size and team quickness keeps an aging stackhouse or a smaller terry/harris from getting great looks.

im also going to add the nuggets tonight. buy it up to 9. they are on a 9-3 ats run. they have won 11 or their last 12 games overall. as the old saying goes, its best to be playing your best ball at the end of the year, which the nuggets are. keep in mind the warriors and nuggets both made mid season trades, which took a while to adjust to. once those adjustments were made, both teams have been on fire and the oddsmakers simply havent caught up.

jibba, i see that hudson is 7-0 with a 2.00 era against the marlins in his career. marlins are scoring, but they cant keep anyone else from scoring. if you get into their bully, forget about it. plus the braves bully shut down the marlins yesterday. play the braves with confidence.
 

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He will be opposed by John Patterson (0-3, 7.00), who has struggled in 2007, after undergoing right forearm surgery last year that ended his season in July. The right-hander's last start also came against Philadelphia on Thursday, when he allowed three runs, seven hits and four walks over four-plus innings of a 4-2 defeat.
Patterson, who fell to 1-3 with a 4.37 ERA in six career starts versus the Phillies, said his right arm felt tight, causing him to lose as much as 10 mph off his fastball.
"It's not even close," said Patterson, who has not recorded a win in more than a year. "I'm having to swallow a lot of pride right now."
The Nationals have been outscored 27-12 during their three-game skid, batting just .216 while the pitchers have compiled an 8.25 ERA.
 

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Yeah, I definitely have to agree on the Braves. Between Hudson's stats against Florida and Olsen's against Atlanta, I think we're on the right side. Both offenses are clicking but I'll take the team with the top of the line pitcher in that matchup (at least he's playing like it right now). If it weren't for Buffett being on the Marlins, I might make this my first 2 unit play of the year (could possibly say the same about the A's). Still playing them both to win 1.5 units though, which is still equal to the biggest play I've had so far this season.

*Edit to mention that I was wrong on the line movement, which makes me slightly nervous. Still feel good about it.

Live and learn with the Mets and the runline. Should have known better. But I'm going to make mistakes this season. Just have to learn from them.

Will definitely look over those NBA picks before leaving for work. Forgot to mention this in my first post here, but I'm leaving for vacation tomorrow. Probably won't have internet access while I'm away. Should be back on next Wednesday though, possibly Tuesday night. BOL fin.
 

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He will be opposed by John Patterson (0-3, 7.00), who has struggled in 2007, after undergoing right forearm surgery last year that ended his season in July. The right-hander's last start also came against Philadelphia on Thursday, when he allowed three runs, seven hits and four walks over four-plus innings of a 4-2 defeat.
Patterson, who fell to 1-3 with a 4.37 ERA in six career starts versus the Phillies, said his right arm felt tight, causing him to lose as much as 10 mph off his fastball.
"It's not even close," said Patterson, who has not recorded a win in more than a year. "I'm having to swallow a lot of pride right now."
The Nationals have been outscored 27-12 during their three-game skid, batting just .216 while the pitchers have compiled an 8.25 ERA.

Wow. Losing 10 MPH off his fastball? That's huge. Let's hope he's off his game again tonight.
 

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Hey Jib,

Glad to see you with me in two of my three picks..

I think the Oakland line is so nice because Swisher, Bradley, Kotsay and Johnson are all out of the lineup...Some tough shoes to fill, but I still will take Oakland here any day..They have some solid backups that have stepped up for me in the past.

Also with you on the Cardinals.. Looper still not getting the respect he deserves. I do expect a low-scoring game here, but STL needs to desperately improve their 1-7 home record, and they have the tools to do it.

As for Boston, I am unfortunately going the other way..I think Cabrera is a different pitcher than he once was, but we shall see..

Best of luck my man!

-Chase
 

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Hey Jib,

Glad to see you with me in two of my three picks..

I think the Oakland line is so nice because Swisher, Bradley, Kotsay and Johnson are all out of the lineup...Some tough shoes to fill, but I still will take Oakland here any day..They have some solid backups that have stepped up for me in the past.

Also with you on the Cardinals.. Looper still not getting the respect he deserves. I do expect a low-scoring game here, but STL needs to desperately improve their 1-7 home record, and they have the tools to do it.

As for Boston, I am unfortunately going the other way..I think Cabrera is a different pitcher than he once was, but we shall see..

Best of luck my man!

-Chase

Glad to hear we'll be on the same page for 2 of 3. I did know about the injuries and think Swisher is obviously the big one. This game just isn't about offense to me though. I mean, obviously I expect to get some offense out of Oakland facing Washburn, but I also think Blanton will continue his success at home against Seattle. At this point I think the terrible run the M's have had in Oakland is in their heads.

As for St. Louis, completely agree.

BuffettGambler has the exact same thoughts on the Boston game. I do respect Cabrera quiet a bit, but until he actually has success against Boston, I can't go with him against the Sox.

BOL of course. Will be looking for your thread to get the full analysis.
 

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looks good jibba i'm on three of yours to, (redsox, oak, braves) lets roll this bitch.....

:smoking:
 

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Thanks mudder.

Adding 2 more. Still strongly looking at TB tonight, but no play as of yet.

Minnesota -141: Odalis Perez is still pitching in the bigs? Oh that's right ... it's the Royals. This guy just keeps on going, regardless of how many stinkers he throws. Last year he put up a 6.72 ERA on the road while allowing batters to hit a gaudy .324 against him. In Minnesota, he put up two ugly starts (0-1), only lasting 10.1 innings but giving up 18 hits and 8 runs while allowing the Twins to bat an amazing .383 against him. I'll fade the Royals on the road here, even if it does force me to put a little faith in Ponson. 1.41 units to win 1.

San Francisco +131: I still think the Dodgers are playing solid ball these days, but the Giants can not be ignored. The Giants have had a little success so far against lefties and I think we're getting the right price to make Randy Wolf prove he's as good as he's looked so far. I'm still not buying it and think the Giants are a different team than they were just 2 and a half weeks ago when Wolf put up his best game of the season so far.

The Giants send Noah Lowry to the mound today, while my first thought was to fade him on the road, a little digging convinced me otherwise. Yes . . . Lowry put up a 1-5 record on the road last season with a 6.79 ERA and a terrible .316 BAA. But he wasn't nearly as bad in his 2 starts in Dodger Stadium where he picked up his lone road win on the year and put up a 4.50 ERA. In his career, he's actually a very impressive 2-1 against the Dodgers (8 starts and 55.1 IPs) with a 2.77 ERA, a 1.07 WHIP, and a .210 BAA. And overall at Dodger Stadium he's 2-0 with a 2.39 ERA, a 0.99 WHIP, and a .200 BAA. For the price we're getting with the hot Giants, I'll wager that he puts up his second strong start of the year against these Dodgers. 1 unit to win 1.31.

Total card:

Atlanta -145: 2.18 units to win 1.5.
Philadelphia -175: 1.75 units to win 1.
San Diego -103: 1.03 units to win 1.
Milwaukee +116: 1 unit to win 1.16 (come on Sheets!).
St. Louis -123: 1.23 units to win 1.
Boston -121: 1.21 units to win 1.
NY Yankees -180: 1.80 units to win 1.
Oakland -127: 1.91 units to win 1.
NY Mets -1.5, +110: 1 unit to win 1.10 (stupid)
Minnesota -141: 1.41 units to win 1.
San Francisco +131: 1 unit to win 1.31.


Like I said originally, I like a lot of games today. Lot of favorites, but even with the early loss I feel good about this card. BOL to everyone on their plays today. Will be in Arizona until early next week. Hoping to catch a D-Backs game while I'm out there. From what I remember, they practically let you in for free after the game's started. Hope everyone has a good (and profitable) weekend.
 

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well jibba, wont see ya for a while because im on vacay starting sunday through thursday on a disney cruise. i doubt ill post at all while gone. see ya next friday probably then. bol and enjoy your vacay
 

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