MLB: Wednesday April 25th Plays

Coming off a losing and disappointing day that could have been a pretty profitable one, if it weren’t for losing two games in which I was one out away from a win. The Tigers were one out away, but a pass ball allowed the Angels to tie up the game and later win. However, the really tough loss was the 2 to 1 underdog Rockies, who were a strike away from a win, and allowed a two strike home run to a journeyman player.

I may add later.



Red Sox @ Orioles
Play: Orioles +120
Intrinsic Value: -116
Consider Betting Price: -104
Comment:
I got burned betting on the Red Sox last night, but I had no problem taking my chances with them as a home underdog. However, they have quickly become the overvalued team they have most of the season with Schilling back on the mound. A lot of value has been created on the Orioles in large part because of the horrific career totals Cabrera has against the Red Sox. In past years, the Red Sox matched up well against him. Not because they could hit his stuff, but they have a lineup that possesses a lot of patient hitters that force the opponent to throw strikes, something in which Cabrera had really struggled doing. This had lead to walking 32 Red Sox batters in just 33 innings of work. However, Cabrera appears much improved this year, as his command appears to have finally gotten better. In fact, he has walked just three batters in his last three games combined. If his control continues to be as solid as it has of late, it will force the Red Sox batters to have to finally swing the bat against him. This may be a problem for the Red Sox, as there does not really exist a hitter with much success against him, while there are a few hitters in today’s lineup that have struggled against him. Neither Ortiz or Manny has done much against him either. The Red Sox are a much less potent hitting lineup away from home, and it appeared that they had a Yankee hangover in their last series, as mental mistakes were occurring on a consistent basis. The Orioles finally have one of the better bullpens in the league, which also possesses the ideal depth to back a pitcher prone to accumulate a high pitch count early in games. Cabrera is also a more effective pitcher at home, and has been much more dominant in his night games throughout his career.

Schilling continues to be priced as if he were the same pitcher he was a few years back, which is simply not the case- despite his solid start to the season. This may be a spot in which he witnesses some regression, as he has simply has not pitched terribly well on the road over the last couple of years. He has struggled pitching in this park throughout his career, and will have to face a few hitters spread across the lineup with past success against him. The Red Sox bullpen is only solid when holding onto leads in the later innings, something that could be prevented in this game.

Braves @ Marlins
Play: Marlins +148
Intrinsic Value: +108
Consider Betting Price: +126
Comment:
I am well aware of how hot the Braves hitters are at the plate right now, and am also aware of how much Olsen has struggled on the mound this year. However, I feel both variables are fully reflected into the market price, and then some. Olsen has the pitching arsenal to be one of the most dominant southpaws in baseball, and it is just a matter of time until he finds the command that he once had. Although he has struggled against the Braves in the past, his performances are more correlated to whether he has his stuff working in that particular game, not how he fundamentally matches up with the opponents lineup. He has always been much more effective during night games, a situation in which has not had many chances in doing against the Braves. Although the Braves have put forth dominant numbers against them, they may be misleading, as there exists too small of a sample to judge by. In fact, there is just one hitter in today’s lineup with ten or more at bats against him, which happens to be Jones, who is hitless in ten at bats. If Olsen’s slider is working, he could dominate any lineup. The Braves have not been hitting left handed pitching terribly well, and were overmatched by a similar pitcher a few games ago.

The Marlins lineup is also one of the hottest in baseball, and has scored 39 runs in the last five games. Today they have a tough challenge against a pitcher that is pitching as well as any other in the league right now. However, I stand by the notion that Hudson will not be able to put forth the numbers he was consistently doing prior to last seasons disappointing year. The Marlins actually hit him well in his last start against him, but were plagued by a lot of tough luck outs. Hudson has always been more effective as a home pitcher and day game pitcher, both variables which were working in his favor in his first start against the Marlins. Being a night game on the road will put him in a more unfavorable situational spot. The Marlins also have some hitters spread across the lineup with past success against him.

Royals @ Twins
Play: Twins -138
Intrinsic Value: -192
Consider Betting Price: -174
Comment:
Once again, a public fade team like the Royals is overvalued on the road, a situation that does not happen often in baseball. However, the fading tendency of the public on the Royals is countered by their tendency to go against Ponson. There is no denying that Ponson is a horrific pitcher that was dominated by the Royals in his last start. However, prior to that start, he had put forth some decent outings against this team in the past. He has also always been more comfortable pitching at home, while the Royals are a much less potent lineup away from home. Being backed by a lineup which is expected to give him some ideal run support and the best and deepest bullpen in baseball should decrease the risks of betting on Ponson.

Ponson is not the only pitcher in this game that has looked horrific on the mound this season, as Perez has been awful as well. He has allowed a run an inning, a whip of over 2, and opponents are hitting .378 against him. He has struggled against the Twins the last couple of years, as he comes into this game with a career 7.54 ERA against them. Even when he was an effective pitcher a few years back, he was never a solid road pitcher. However, he has taken this trend to a new level the last couple of years, as both of the last two years; he has put forth a road ERA over six. There are a few hitters in today’s lineup with past success against him. He has yet to finish the sixth inning in any of his starts, but the main difference between him and Ponson in this game, as the he is backed by the worst bullpen in baseball. There does not exist a bigger disparity of bullpens compared to these two teams, a huge advantage for the Twins in a game in which neither starter is expected to go deep.

Mariners @ A’s
Play: Mariners +124
Intrinsic Value: -108
Consider Betting Price:+106
Comment:
The worst lineup in the American League has just gotten a lot worse now that they will be without arguably their two best hitters, Swisher and Bradley. These two injuries do not bode well for a team that has been struggling to score runs all season. This is a good spot for Washburn to put forth another good outing against this team, as his first start against them this season, he was able to pitch six strong, and allowed just three hits. Prior to last season’s road struggles Washburn was actually one of the best road pitchers in baseball, and still comes into this game with a career road ERA of 3.66, a number that is better that a lot of top tier pitchers in the league. This includes solid career totals in this park, which happens to be a park that compliments his style of pitching (fly ball pitcher). He has dominated a few hitters that he will have to face in tonight’s game, and is backed by a well rested bullpen.

Blanton has put forth some solid career numbers against the Mariners, but those numbers are a bit misleading. He has been getting progressively less effective against them, and has struggled pitching to them in his last two starts, including one this year. There are a couple of hitters in today’s lineup that have hit him really well, while hitters with past problems against him have improved the last couple of games. The Mariners are a more potent lineup on the road, and are much more talented than their counterparts. Although Blanton is backed by a solid bullpen, it is a bullpen that has not looked good on the mound of late, and their three best bullpen pitchers have struggled against the Mariners throughout their career.

-1.81 Yesterday

+26.50 YTD

Great writeups as usual Buffett. I'm unfortunately against you on 3 today, but may be adding the Twins at some point. BOL.

Buffett, what do you think of the over in the twin game. Had it last time with same pitching matchup and see no reason not to take it again. Also like the over in the detroit white sox game.

Thanks Jibba, good luck to you as well.

tk2,
With all the favorable variables working for the Over in the Twins game, its hard to say that is not a good bet. It is a bit pricey for both offenses, but the Twins should be able to score throughout the game as the Royals bullpen should struggle as well. If the Royals could get to Ponson early again, it should go over, but the Twins bullpen should stop the bleeding.

I like the Over in the White Sox game as well. The Tigers are hitting the ball well, and are more potent on the road. Both offenses got a good look at both young arms last week, so the novalty effect is gone.
Good luck with both.

Appreciate it buffett

im also against him on three, not including the twins game. in fact i love the braves in this spot. ive been hot with the marlins recently too.

interesting tk, that i said in jibbas forum that i liked those same two games over.

in the nba, take the warriors once again +10. see writeup on jibbas thread

what nobodys betting the cubs game:+)? im tempted to never bet a game involving them the rest of the year.

buffett, are you not a believer in looper today vs the reds? how about the padres?

Glad to see you on those fin, taking atl as well fin and an indians-angels parlay. Also like the yanks over team runs.

finman13 said:

buffett, are you not a believer in looper today vs the reds? how about the padres?

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There is some value on the Cards tonight. I valued them at -134, and will bet them if they go down to -120. Looper has been solid.

The Padres are a bit pricey. They should be listed as underdogs. I am a big fan of Peavy, but he has struggled in the past agianst this team, and is not as effective on the road. Webb is no slouch and is tempting as a home dog. I valued the Dbacks at -107, and would bet them at +114, which wont happen.

i like jibbas card minus the brewers. he was considering the drays, but i just dont see taking jackson on the road against a hot team.

finman13 said:

i like jibbas card minus the brewers. he was considering the drays, but i just dont see taking jackson on the road against a hot team.

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Regarding Tampa, I just don't think a team playing this well should be getting +200. But Jackson is definitely the catch. And as great as TB's offense has looked, Lackey has the kind of stuff that can shut down almost any offense.

Brewers @ Cubs
Play: Cubs -109
Intrinsic Value: -123
Consider Betting Price: -110
Comment:
Adding the Cubs, as the late money on the Brewers has created value on a slumping, yet talented Cubs team. People are putting too much stock in Soriano not being in the lineup, a player who has not looked good at the plate, and does not match up well with Sheets style of pitching. There are a couple of hitters in the Cubs lineup with past success against Sheets, who is not as effective on the road. The Cubs need a win badly to avoid getting swept at home. Lilly has looked dominant this season, and his curveball is hard to pick up right now. He has been dominant on both right and left handed hitters, and is backed by a deeper and better bullpen. Aside from Fielder, the Brewers lineup has not been hitting the ball well this series, and do not match up terribly well against this kind of southpaw. Jenkins is also out of the lineup, and Turnbow may not be available.

buffettgambler said:

However, the really tough loss was the 2 to 1 underdog Rockies, who were a strike away from a win, and allowed a two strike home run to a journeyman player.

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Tell me about it that Colorado loss cost me a 45:1 parlay. Damit!
Always check your write ups and play the ones I like.
Good luck tonight!