ATP Picks 4-25-07 (32-19-2) +$1767

ATP · Apr 25, 2007

1. Brewers +115

Ben sheets has been un-ben sheets like this season going 1-2 with an ERA of 5, while ted lilly has been absolutly lights out with an ERA of 2.42 but hasnt gotten any run support from the slumping cubs. Lilly has gone 13 innings in his last two starts giving up only two runs on the two run homer from preston wilson. I dont see Lilly being this good for too long of a period and with the cubs just being totally unpredictable ill take the brew crew as a dog where they are 5-4 and 6-1 this year vs lefties, after beating possibly the hottest lefty in Rich Hill yesterday. Its true that sheets has had trouble with the cubs in the past but ill look past that today as the cubs are just too bad right now.

100/115 brew crew

ATP · Apr 25, 2007

2. NY Mets -195

Though Pelfrey hasnt been dominant this year this looks like a spot where he could get back on track facing a rockies offense that could only manage 1 run through 12 innings vs the amazins last night. Colorodo is losers of 4 of 5 and Fogg enters this game at 0-1 with an ERA of 7.54. Fogg has gotten killed in the past vs these mets and these mets are the best team theyve had so watch out. His last outing vs them was 1.3 innings allowing 8 ER. Not a great line but it looks real safe in this spot if the offense shows up today for NY.

195/100 Mets

Jibba · Apr 25, 2007

On the Brewers with you and like the Mets. Not sure I can lay the juice with both NY teams tonight though. Going to continue thinking it over as the day goes on. BOL.

ATP · Apr 25, 2007

Terrible start to the day with Pelfrey looking like a minor league bound player and Sheets going down in the 4th giving up no runs. try to rebound tonight.

3. Indians -1.5 -115

Cleveland enter this game on a real high beating a guy in johan santana that had dominated them in the past sweeping the short two game set with the Twins. Sabathia comes into this at 3-0 with an ERA of 2.25 while Padilla is 0-3 with an ERA of 6, cant think being scheduled to pitch one day and getting pushed back to go against a solid Indians offense is comforting either. The tribe is 4-2 at jacobs field this season while Texas is 2-7 on the road. The rangers last outing vs a lefty was vs burhle where they failed to get a hit in 9 innings, and Sabathia is a better pitcher than him, so watch out for the Indians to shutdown the Texas offense. Hafner has powered the indians offense and with all other players contributing this should lead to more than a 2 run win.

115/100

ATP · Apr 25, 2007

4. NYY/Toronto OVER 9.5

Even when it looks doomed to get an over in the yankee game they manage to both score enough and give up enough at the end of the day for it to go over the total, they have played at least 5 straight overs and are 12-5-2 this season with the over. Toronto is 9-9-2. The yanks are the highest scoring team in the league and bluejays put up the second most hits per game in the league. Though Pettitte has been good this year and the yanks are desperate to end this 5 game losing streak I couldnt expect an enourmous outing out of him after pitching 6 innings against boston then coming back from the bullpen two days later. Its been a while since he has faced toronto but when he did he was not very good over his last 5 pitching 24 innings and allowing 23 runs. Another night of the Yankee bullpen would lead to another night of numerous runs. Burnett hasnt been good this year and the Toronto offense is hitting on all cylinders after that blowout performecne against boston yesterday, lets cross the plated many times tonight.

OVER NYY 220/200

ATP · Apr 25, 2007

5. Kansas City +139

Was all over the over in this same matchup of ponson vs Odalis Perez last week, because of the insane career stats of each team against the opposing pitcher but lately the Twins are struggling to score and Perez wasnt nearly as bad as Ponson last week. Perez went 5 innings allowing 4 runs while Ponson only went 4 innings allowing 6 runs. Ponson's last 3 starts vs KC: 7 innings 18 ER, yikes. Perez gives up similar runs but you get more innings out of him. Kc's 2-7 record on the road may scare you but Minn isnt staggering at home at 6-6 and they cant even win for Santana lately. The total has gone under 8 of the last 9 games between these teams at Minnesota, KC doesnt score too many on the road and Minn hasnt been scoring otherwise Id be on the over, but i think KC is playing with more passion right now and are worth getting at a price.

100/139

ATP · Apr 25, 2007

6. Washington +185

This team jumps up and wins once in a while when you dont expect it at a big price. Though Patterson hasnt been good this year and got ruffed up for 3 runs in 4 innings in his last start vs these phillies I still think he can turn it around as he has yet to get any run support to work with, and Ive never been a huge fan of Jon Lieber. His first start of the year was a pretty good 5 inning performance but I still prefer Patterson to him, Im also wondering if the rain plays any affect in this game, if it were to go only 5 or 6 innings I prefer the Nationals who usually score early in the ballgame, while the Phills have been holding back until deeper in the game. I dont see making Lieber -210 against anyone. Small stab on these Nats tonight.

100/185

thegame2005 · Apr 25, 2007

yank PP..always follow ur plays
esp..totals

any other totals u like

glty!

ATP · Apr 25, 2007

7. Atlanta - 158

Wasnt sure on this line this morning but the more i look at it it seems to fit. Hudson has been the best pitcher in the NL this year with a .62 ERA going 3-0 including a 7 inning one run performance vs these same Marlins. Both teams were spanking the ball last night bringing each bullpen into the game which serves well for Atlanta tonight because Olsen has had enormous troubles with this team over his last two starts pitching a combined 3 innings and giving up 10 ER. Knocking out Olsen early brings in a worn-out pen which could lead to big lead for atlanta that Hudson would hold easily. His last 5 starts vs the fish: 32 IP. 6ER. I usually like playing atlanta vs righties and going against them vs the lefties, but this pitcher is an exception and Hudson is on a CY young path this year, play los bravos.

316/200

ATP · Apr 25, 2007

8. CHWhitesox -134

Thought this could be a good under with Danks throwing 3 unders in a row until i Saw how bad Durbin has been this season and against the sox. Durbin is 0-1 with a 10.5 ERA this year and his last three starts vs the sox have been: 8 innings with 14ER. The tigers bullpen was used a lot in that 2 game series vs the Angels while Burhle and Vasquez gave two solid starts. The sox are 10-3 SU in their last 13 against the tigers in chicago and 16 of their last 24 vs the tigers. Chicago won 4 of 5 on their road trip and now come back home.

134/100 chisox

ATP · Apr 25, 2007

9. Cincy/ST Louis UNDER 8 (+110)

Usually you would expect a ton of runs in a matchup between these two team, but i think the public is overestimating the total here at -130. There seems to be some real value in this under with Arroyo who is 0-2 but with only a 3.2 ERA and Looper who has been extremely satisfying at 3-1 with an era of 2. The total has gone under in 4 of the last 6 games in st louis, and it went over last night. For the most part St louis just hasnt been able to score runs for anyone consistently and Looper hasnt been giving up any, so i lean everything on what Cincy will bring to the table, seems like one of those 3-2 or 4-3 games that stay under the total at a price.

100/110