MLB WEDNESDAY PICKS (9-9-0 YTD -0.40 UNITS) With Writeup

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It looks like the Brewers showed up to play last night, but we still managed a winning night.

2007 RECORD: 9-9-0 -0.40 Units

TUESDAY 4/24/2007: THREE PLAYS:

Boston Red Sox (Curt Schilling) @ Baltimore Orioles (Daniel Cabrera)
PLAY ON: BALTIMORE ORIOLES (Moneyline +115) To Win 1 Unit

Seattle Mariners (Jarrod Washburn) @ Oakland Athletics (Joe Blanton)
PLAY ON: OAKLAND ATHLETICS (Moneyline, -130) To Win 1 Unit

Cincinnati Reds (Bronson Arroyo) @ St Louis Cardinals (Braden Looper)
PLAY ON: ST. LOUIS CARDINALS (Moneyline, -125) To Win 1 Unit

Orioles Writeup

The line on this game was the first thing that caught my eye. The Redsox with Schilling, and they're only a -125 favorite? Well, after further investigation, I realized Daniel Cabrera is shaping up into one very solid pitcher.

Cabreras stuff has always been nasty, but his piss-poor control and fear of the strike zone had him giving out unmerited freebies over the past few seasons. Now, after a productive stint in the minors, Cabrera has managed to walk only 7 batters in 27 innings of work, and only 3 batters combined in his last three games. More impressive is the fact that Cabrera has managed to give up zero homeruns, despite walking so few batters. It seems Cabrera is finally trusting his stuff, and its paid nice dividends thus far.

Boston has seemingly hammered Cabrera over his career, but most of these earned runs came as a result of the wild child that Cabrera once was. If you think tonights Red Sox will be that patient team we all know and love, think again. After a blowout loss to Roy Halladay, this team is salivating over the chance to hammer Cabrera tonight. Unfortunately, this will not translate into runs. An overanxious and cocky Boston team that expects to win with their ace tonight will be hacking away. I expect Cabrera to cruise against this team, especially with Manny struggling. Ortiz is only 5 for 21 against Cabrera, and has never taken him yard. Aside from those two, nobody in this lineup is too overwhelming. A carefree and overanxious Sox team should be embarrassed in Balti tonight.

The Orioles have been a hot team with a flourishing pitching staff. They're hitting the ball hard, and have always had success against Schilling, who is only 5-4 against the O's with a 4.00 career ERA. Schilling has looked less than spectacular this year as we watched him get knocked up by the Royals and the Yankees in two of his four starts. His other two starts came against the offensive joke that is the LA Angels, and the Texas Rangers after his team had secured an early 8-0 blowout. Nothing about Schillings pitches hints that Baltimore will be baffled tonight. His fastball has not located particularly well, and it seems he's having trouble adjusting to his fat body and old age. With guys like Mora, Tejada, and my favorite name in baseball, Nick Markakis, the O's should hit Schilling plenty hard as they vie for a leg up in the divison.

Athletics Writeup

The A's are a banged up team right now, but in tonights game, it shouldn't matter. They've lost Milton Bradley, Mark Kotsay, Dan Johnson and now Nick Swisher to the DL, but have still managed to put W's on the board. Tonight, the absences of Swisher and Bradley may actually help us. Swisher is 2 for 20 against Washburn, while Bradley is 3 for 20. It baffles me that these guys only hit a combined .125 against Washburn with only 6 strikeouts between them. In anycase, the A's have ample backups who have done damage for me in the past, and should not let us down tonight.

I have never had any respect for Jarrod Washburn. His fastball has always seemed flat to me, and he's only been able to put up one fantastic season over his past four. Last year was his worst, at an ERA clip of 4.67 with an 8-14 record. Washburn is a pathetic 7-12 against Oakland with a 4.07 ERA. These games were nearly all played while he was an Angel as well, a very good team over the past 5 years. After pitching a solid game against Oakland in his first start, he now has to face this lineup again on their home turf. Don't expect Oakland to look as sill as they did in their first matchup against Jarrod.

Joe Blanton is hardly an imposing figure. He is short, fat and stubby, and certainly doesn't look like much of a pitcher. After annihilating Blanton earlier this year, we should expect a noticeable swagger from Seattle tonight coming off a win against Millwood and the division rival Rangers. Despite his stature, Blanton is no scrub. Without the respect he deserves, Blanton should carve through this ever-underachieving Seattle lineup. He has managed to put together a strong season thus far, limiting his walks and long balls, while managing to keep up a high strikeout rate. Blanton is another guy who will keep you swinging at air if you decide you're going to try and tee-off on him. We should see a lot of free-swinging tonight from a cocky Seattle team that feels they can run Blanton out of the ballpark tonight.


Cardinals Writeup

Braden Looper just keeps finding a way to win. After a blowout win against Kip Wells, they now get to tee-off against Braden Looper. Just hearing that name makes me want to take him yard. The Reds are a compilation of some of the most free-swinging hitters in the league. While Looper has kept his ERA low, the Reds have their ace going tonight, and don't expect Looper to pose too much of a challenge. After all, they just scored 10 on Kip Wells in St Louis last night. Just like the Brewers did in my last Looper bet, I expect the Reds to take a lot of big hacks and come up empty. In a comfortable two-game lead over the Cardinals, there is certainly no urgency for the Reds to produce on the offensive end tonight.

Arroyo has some real nasty stuff, but it wont be too much for the veteran Cardinals to handle. Arroyo sports a 4.99 ERA lifetime against the Cards. He has lost all of his starts this season, which is truly unfortunate. With Looper pitching the way he is, Arroyo will have to be pretty much perfect tonight. We may even see Arroyo trying too hard tonight to get a victory, and it could end up being his demise.

In short, this is another play on a hungry Cardinals team with a capable pitcher against a Cincinnati team that has proven an inability to show up against unknown pitchers. This one could be a low-scoring game, but with the Reds shabby bullpen, I expect the Cardinals to improve their unbelievably poor home record of 1-7. Its time for the Cards to step up in St Louis, and tonight looks like a perfect opportunity to do it
 

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Great job on the writeups w3rdy. As you already know, with you on 2 out of 3. Shame your threads don't get more hits as you provide some great analysis and info. All in due time though . . . BOL.
 

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Haha,

Thats quite alright Jib...I wouldnt even look into a 9-9 thread! But its a long season...Hopefully we can hit a nice run now.

GL
 

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Haha,

Thats quite alright Jib...I wouldnt even look into a 9-9 thread! But its a long season...Hopefully we can hit a nice run now.

GL

Good and bad records come and go. Solid analysis and information will generally turn into profits over time though. I'd much prefer threads like this even with the 9-9 record as opposed to some that may be doing alright now, but generally just give a short list of plays with no explanation.
 

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