ATL/FLA 4-25-07 thoughts

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With the exception of the first game of this series, I think I've had a pretty good feel for my home team this season. This matchup tonight is a tough one, because it's really tough to predict how Olsen is going to pitch against the Braves.

The Braves have seen more LH starters than any other team in the majors to this point this year, and I believe they are 8-1 against righties and 5-6 against lefties. Olsen's game is really a toss of a coin to me, he could be dominant or he could explode after a few innings like he did last time against the Braves. I trust that Tim Hudson is going to stay in his dominant form; he has always pitched well against the Marlins and he's really looked like he's gotten back into old Tim Hudson form so far this year.

The ML has dropped pretty considerably from -60 to mid -40's at most shops, and if I were forced to play a side I'd play the Braves, but I'm not usually willing to lay chalk like that on the road, especially against a team like the Marlins that is relatively unpredictable, has a great lineup and has been pretty hot lately.

Best bet I can find on this game is that there will be no score in the first inning at -15 at 5Dimes. Don't think Hudson will give up a run that early, and while Olsen may fall apart late--which makes me wary of the UNDER--he's usually been good through the first few innings.

Not a big bet here, just like to have some action on my Braves and researching it gives me a feel for the team as they move along. Good luck to all, and if you have thoughts/comments feel free to post! :toast:
 

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Nice analysis. Never felt comfortable with totals in MLB though, and the 1st inning plays make me even more nervous. I'm on the Braves for a 1.5 unit play though. Think your boys have too much going for them tonight to lose this one.
 

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