MLB: Thursday April 26th Plays

Astros @ Pirates
Play: Pirates +116
Intrinsic Value: -145
Consider Betting Price: -131
Comment:
Huge bounce back start for Armas, as his starting spot may be on the line if he continues to struggle in the manner he has opening up the season. No matter what home park he has pitched in Armas has been far more effective pitching in front of his home crowd throughout his career. Today will be his first home start as a Pirate, a spot in which he put forth a career 3.67 ERA in for the other teams he has pitched for. Armas still has the pitching arsenal to be effective on right handed hitters, and has had success throughout his career against the Astros, actually only allowing six runs in 29 innings of work in his home starts against the team. Although he is not the same pitcher he was when he accumulated most of the numbers against the Astros hitters, still 1 for 15 on Biggio, 0 for 9 for Ensberg, 2 for 9 on Ausmus, and 1 for 9 on Lee can not be ignored. He is also backed by an underrated bullpen that has the long relief pitchers to fill in multiple innings for a struggling pitcher, as they proved last night. Unlike the Astros, who used their best bullpen pitcher in multiple innings of work, the three best Pirates bullpen pitchers had one inning or less of work.

The Pirates also have a good chance to back Armas with ideal run support, as they get to face a sub par pitcher as well. As expected, Rodriguez got a reality check in his last start, as he simply is not good enough to keep solid numbers sustained for long periods of time. Despite not going up against a terribly talented lineup, it is a lineup that has a few hitters with past success against him in limited at bats, and a lineup that has been much more potent at home the last three years. Despite not much difference in productive against southpaws compared to right handed pitchers this year, the Pirates lineup matches up much better against left handed pitching. The Astros long relief is a mess right now, and Rodriguez is not an ideal candidate to go deep into games, especially with a career road ERA near six.

Royals @ Twins
Play: Twins -144
Intrinsic Value: -186
Consider Betting Price: -167
Comment:
This is an interesting match up between two young pitchers with a lot of upside, who also contain a lot of volatility. With all the publicity going around Grienke, his issues and talent, it seems like a lot of value has been sucked out of the Royals in recent games that he has pitched in. He got a huge and much needed confidence boost early in the season with two dominating outings in a row, but quickly fell apart in his last two starts, including his last outing against the Twins. He has never been nearly as effective in his road starts, a trend that has continued this year. Despite a decent start to the season, he has been very hittable, as opponents are hitting .333 against him. He has not had much success against the Twins in the past, including a couple of poor outings in the dome. There will be a few hitters in today’s lineup with solid numbers against him in limited at bats. Once he leaves, things will get even easier for the Twins lineup, as any team can do a number on the Royals bullpen.

Bonser has not started the season in the same fashion that he finished last season, but still has the talent and upside to quickly turn things around. He has put forth some dominant innings when you think he will finally turn things around, but has been hampered by the big inning and the long ball that continues to be a problem for him. The latter should be helped out by being able to face a team that lacks the ideal power to take advantage of this deficiency. In fact, the Royals home run leader is their catcher, with four, and have just 17 total. The Twins have the luxury of having a short leash with Bonser, as he is backed by the ideal bullpen, which gives the Twins a huge advantage in the later innings.

Devil Rays @ Angels
Play: Devil Rays +192
Intrinsic Value: +128
Consider Betting Price: +150
Comment:
I am not sure what the public’s infatuation with Colon is, but I stick by my belief that he simply is not going to be the same pitcher he once was, at this age coming off a shoulder injury. Despite putting forth solid numbers in his first start, he was still hit hard, and was only able to strike out one batter against a lineup prone to strikeout a lot. He is also now dealing with another injury, as he tweaked his ankle in that game. Although the Devil Rays are not as potent away from home, they still have one of the most underrated lineups in baseball, and a lineup that matches up well with right handed power pitchers. Although he is backed by a talented bullpen that possesses a huge disparity over their counterparts, it is a bullpen whose three best pitchers have not looked sharp in recent games.

Seo also appears to not be the same pitcher he once was. He has been very hittable the last couple of years and prone to the long ball. However, three of his first four starts were against the Yankees, Indians, and in Texas, spots that will inflate any pitchers numbers. Today he gets to face a much less potent lineup that lacks the ideal power to take advantage of Seo’s deficiencies. Despite this year’s home productivity, it had been a team that has performed better on the road in recent years. The Devil Rays bullpen is a mess, but a problem that is fully reflected in the line. However, they finally appear to have gotten a closer that is a much safer 9th inning bet compared to recent years.

Padres @ Diamondbacks
Play: Padres -118
Intrinsic Value: -156
Consider Betting Price: -142
Comment:
Over the last couple of years, probably the best productivity per price on a road pitcher has been Young, as he just doesn’t get the respect he deserves when pitching away from home. Although amount of value he is coming with in this game is not nearly as much as some of his past road starts, but is still undervalued enough to warrant of play. Young’s height and awkward delivery makes him extremely hard to pick up, giving him an embedded advantage when facing teams with not much of a past history against him. This does not bode well for the Diamondbacks, who have only faced him once( were dominated by him last year), and has just one batter with double digit at bats against him, Byrnes, who has two hits in ten at bats and five strike outs. Expect Young to have a good chance of continuing his road dominance, as he faces a young lineup with hitters that more than likely have never seen a pitcher like Young in their life. The first two go arounds for these hitters should be hard, and being backed by the best bullpen in the National League will not give some a chance for a third of fourth go around if the situation calls for it.

Hernandez has been hit or miss the last few years. His only miss this year was his last start against this Padres lineup, when he was tagged for seven runs and 13 baserunners in just five innings of work. His finesse pitching style matches up better against young and impatient lineups like the first three he faced this year, the Nats and Rockies twice. However, lineups filled with experience is something that gives Hernandez problems, as they sit back and force him to go into the strike zone, which puts him at a disadvantage due to not having overpowering pitches. If and when both starters leave, the Padres will have the clear advantage, as the Diamondbacks bullpen is below average and lack a talented left handed arm to counter this left handed loaded lineup.

Red Sox @ Orioles
Play: Orioles +138
Intrinsic Value: -107
Consider Betting Price: +114
Comment:
Once again, the Red Sox are overvalued. Although I will probably lose more times than not going against this team, I feel I could grind out a profit by continuing to bet against an inflated price tag. There is no denying that fact that Beckett looks like a much improved pitcher this year compared to last years disappointing season, but I still doubt he will be able to put forth the numbers he was in years prior to last. Aside from the Yankees, he pitched to three sub par lineups, and has pitched just one road game all year, a situation where he has struggled in the past. He was really prone to the long ball last year, which is not a deficiency you want when pitching in this park. He allowed 20 alone to left handed hitters, which could be a problem when facing a lineup with five left handed hitters with home run power. Sooner or later, Beckett will get a reality check, and my guess is that it will happen on the road, insider a hitters park and against a left handed loaded lineup, all three in which the Orioles have. The Red Sox bullpen is not terribly talented aside from their closer and possibly their new setup man.

Loewen has the pitching arsenal to dominate any lineup, but his lack of command makes him vulnerable getting roughed up by any lineup as well. However, I feel that only his deficiencies are being factored into this market price. He has pitched much better in his young career at home, and although has some ugly numbers against the Red Sox, they are a bit misleading, as they have not hit him terribly well, and their runs scored were predominantly caused because of a high walk total. Unlike last year, he is backed by a deep and talented bullpen that could give the manager leverage in pulling the plug on him early if his command is lacking. The Red Sox are a much less dangerous lineup on the road and against left handed pitching.

Blue Jays @ Yankees
Play: Yankees -145
Intrinsic Value: -178
Consider Betting Price: -160
Comment:
I must admit that I am a bit disappointed in only getting a ten basis point reduction from yesterday’s line when Towers was expected to pitch. However, I still feel that the Yankees are coming with some nice value in this game (first time all year I am betting them), albeit there is a lot of speculation in the derivation of the intrinsic value. Although there is no denying that Hughes, a highly touted 20 year pitcher could be overwhelmed making his debut at home against a powerful lineup, but carrying a similar price tag as Rasner and Wright, who don’t have nearly the same arm as he does, makes him worth the risk. Although his minor league stint wasn’t terribly impressive he is coming off his best outing of the year. He is a three plus pitcher with solid command, which could be a huge asset when controlling the nerves and potential lack of control this spot can give. Having the day off yesterday, the Yankees bullpen got a much needed rest, and will have more leverage in controlling Hughes and prevent him from being in a vulnerable spot. The Blue Jays are a much less potent lineup against right handed power pitchers, are battling three key injuries, and have never been terribly effective away from home.

With all the attention in this game centered on Hughes, people are forgetting that you are also betting on the best lineup in baseball bar none. Any given game, they could score enough runs to overcome any potential risk on the mound. Burnett has not looked sharp on the mound this year, and is starting to revert to the pitcher he was a few years back, a pitcher that lacked command and was prone to walking a lot of hitters. He is coming off a five walk performance, which is the last thing you want going up against the most patient lineup in the league. The propensity for this lineup to force the opposition into throwing strikes, coupled with the lack of command that Burnett has shown, leads me to believe he will accumulate a high pitch count early in the game, and forced to an early exit. This does not bode well for a team whose bullpen has quickly become a liability. They are without their two best bullpen pitchers from last year, and are not utilizing their best arm in the spots that they should. Burnett has never been as effective on the road, and has allowed a run an inning away from home this year. He also has put forth some poor spots against the Yankees in the past, including a poor outing in his only start in this stadium.

Tigers @ White Sox
Play: Tigers -102
Intrinsic Value: -116
Consider Betting Price: -106
Comment:
This is the same match up from last weekend, where Contreras was the road pitcher and a nice sized underdog. It was also a game in which I backed the White Sox, which is not the case in this game, as once again, value resides on the road team. Although Contreras had a stretch of dominance against the Tigers in his last start and actually pitched better than his numbers indicate, I strongly feel he is not the same pitcher as he was a couple years back and more than likely never will be again. He has yet to pitch a home start this season since his opening day debacle where he allowed seven runs in just an innings of work, which could be a mental road block working against him. Although he has put forth some solid numbers against the Tigers, it is now two starts in a row in which the Tigers put up at least five runs against him, and he may not be fooling them anymore. The two best hitters on the team also have had a lot of success against him, and the Tigers power throughout the lineup is complimented by the small confines this park provides. The White Sox bullpen is volatile and not as talented as the Tigers, which should give the Tigers the advantage in the later innings.

Robertson continues to get better and better each year, and is off to a real solid start this season, including an outing that he really showed to have an upper hand against this lineup. He is also a pitcher that has now started to pitch much better on the road, and has potentially become one of the better road pitchers in the league. Although he has some really poor numbers against the White Sox, most of his struggles against them have occurred late into seasons, where he has always been a much less effective pitcher. He has had past success against a couple of their role hitters, and two of the better hitters on the team who have also had success against Robertson are not expected to be in the lineup, with Thome and Dye both expected to be out for this game. This really shakes up the White Sox lineup and takes away a lot of their power and clutch hitting. The Tigers bullpen is one of the better ones in the league and has ideal pitchers to match up against this lineup.

Giants @ Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -176
Intrinsic Value: -195
Consider Betting Price: -178
Comment:
It was just a week ago when I said Ortiz is a much improved pitcher compared to the one he displayed on the mound the last two years. There was a mechanical flaw preventing him from pitching to his capabilities, which is no longer an issue. However, he is still a sub par pitcher, especially in road starts, where he has never performed well. He has also been becoming more and more hittable in each successive start, and has been allowing a lot of hard hit outs. He has never had success against the Dodgers, and fundamentally does not match up with their lineup. He continues to have problems with left handed bats, which could also be a problem in tonight’s game. There are a few hitters in today’s lineup that have had a lot of looks at Ortiz when he was a better pitcher, and the majority of them have hit him well. He is backed by a sub par bullpen which should allow the Dodgers to score runs throughout this game.

Penny has been downright dominant in all of his starts this year, including an outing where he dominated this same Giants lineup. He is starting to resemble the first half pitcher he was last year that earned him the starting spot in last years All Star game. He has always been a far more effective pitcher at home and during night games, two more variables that will be working in his favor in this game. He has always had success against the Giants and is getting better and better against them. The Giants veteran lineup simply does not match up well against them, as they are prone to get overpowered by power pitchers that throw as hard as Penny. He has had past success against a few hitters that will be in tonight’s lineup, including the two that hit in front and behind Bonds. Bonds has not managed to get a lot of hits off of him either. The Dodgers bullpen is deeper and more talented than their counterparts.

+1.34 Yesterday

+27.84 YTD

nice writeups again buffett. man the braves killed me yesterday. had a breakeven day because of them. was on all your picks before i read the writeups but the drays. once again i just cant back up seo on the road or anywhere for that matter. angels bats are hot now and i expect that to continue against a terrible pitcher. plus their bully as noted stinks. no other plays out there at all to me except maybe the dreaded runline with the phillies. love hames, but hill does have good stuff.

8-2-2 in the nba. tonight take the pistons, suns and jazz. gl buffett.

actually a little suprised to see you on the yanks with a first time starter.

nice call on the buccos. but boy does torres make you sweat....again. they need to go to grabow now that he is off the ir.

greinke was nails today. lets see if the twins can scratch across a run against that bully

seo absolutely stinks. i had to go against you on that one on the rl. you could still be right. check you out tomorrow.