ATP Picks 4-26-07 (34-25-2) +$ 1056

ATP · Apr 26, 2007

Coming off an absolutly horrendous day, should get back on track with these:

1. NYY/TOR OVER 9.5

I was all ready to take this over last night with Pettitte pitching with his low ERA, now the line stays put and you get Phil Hughes and his first big league start of the season. Burnett has not been all that good this year against lesser lineups going 1-2 with a 5+ ERA while a lot of runs have been scored in all his starts. He hasnt been all that great career vs the yanks losing his last two starts going 11 innings and allowing 8 ER, not to mention he will be facing a pissed off and desperate lineup that still holds a red-hot A-Rod, with or without Jeter the yanks will be putting up runs to end this 5 game losing streak. Both bullpens have been used a lot of late making them less sharp for this game where they are sure to get plenty of work. Phil Hughes comes up the majors at a time where the yanks are floundering and he is being asked to hold down a toronto team that is starting to hit on all cyclinders after that 10 run outburst at boston in its last start, which is unlikely to happen for a guy that defintly wouldnt be here were it not for injuries to pavano, mussina, wang, and others. The yanks are the highest scoring team in the league and while toronto hasnt scored as much they are 2nd in the league in hits per game, assuming a razzled pitcher tonight expect more of those hits to lead to runs. The yanks are 12-5-2 in favor of the over, while toronto is 9-9; however, toronto has held in games on the road going 5-5. You could say a day off is what the yanks needed, but if Hughes isnt sharp it may take more than a day to save the bullpen.

OVER 9.5 NYY 220/200

ATP · Apr 26, 2007

2. LA Dodgers -176

Russ Ortiz has been pitching much better than I had expected thus far, im thinking the roof caves in on him tonight ending this Giants winning streak. His 4.35 ERA should inflate tonight vs the dodgers who are strying to avoid the sweep with their ace Penny on the mound at 3-0 with an ERA of 1.37. The giants romped over the lefty last night, no surprise now 5-1 vs them but they are only 6-7 vs righties. The giants took the last 2 vs the dodgers but LA has owned the recent series winning the eight games prior. For the most part Penny has pitched well against this rival in 4 out of 5 games he has given up 3 runs or less always going 5-6 or 7 innings including 2-1ER and 1 shutout performace; wheras, Ortiz has lost 3 in a row pitching 10 innings and allowing 12 ER. Penny will stop the bleeding

176/100 LAD

ATP · Apr 26, 2007

3. Boston/Baltimore UNDER 9 -105

Dont really trust either side to win this one, just looks like the type of game in baltimore where a lot of zeros go up on the scoreboard. Beckett has been a rock this year except for that Yankee game and he rebounded in that game after a bad start, he is 4-0 with a 2.55 ERA, while Loewen has been good at 2-0 with a 3.7 ERA, his only problem is that he hasnt been going deep into games; however, that isnt as big a problem as it has been in the past for the O's who have revamped their bullpen and it looks lethal at times. Becketts only start vs the O's was a 7 inning 2 hit, one run performance, while Loewen hasnt been been good in past, AKA rookie year vs boston, who would be, he has settled down and is better than he was last year. The over under totals for these two teams favor the under 22-14-5. The total has gone under in 14 of the last 20 games between these two in baltimore, including 5 of the last 6. The total has gone under in 9 of the last 13 home games for baltimore. Schilling cooled off the bats last night expect the trend to continue tonight.

105/100 UNDER 9