MLB: Friday April 27th Plays

Hoping to rebound from my worst day of the season.

Marlins @ Phillies
Play: Marlins +148
Intrinsic Value: +115
Consider Betting Price: +134
Comment:
If the Phillies were overvalued more times than not when they were playing poorly, it is no surprise whatsoever that they will be overvalued when they are finally starting to pick things up. Although Sanchez has not looked well on the mound this season, he will always been a compelling bet as a large underdog, as he has the stuff to dominate any lineup in baseball. He has been battling some nagging injuries on the mound in his past starts, which has affected his command and has prevented him from being as effective as he can be. He is a right hander that could dominate both right and left handed hitters, which is a huge asset going up against this left handed dominated lineup. He has done a good job keeping the balls in the park in his road starts during his young career, as he has allowed just three home runs away from home in nearly 70 innings of work. Although he was horrible against the Phillies in his only start against them last year, his performances are more of a product of whether he has his stuff that particular day rather than the fundamental match ups against the opposing lineups. It was quite evident he didn’t have his stuff that day, as he walked six batters in just four innings of work. Although he is not backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, he is backed by one that got a much needed day off yesterday, as his propensity to accumulate a high pitch count makes him in dire need to be backed by fresh arms.

The Marlins have quietly been one of the hottest lineups in baseball. They have put up six or more runs in four of their last five games, and are a rare young team that has shown to be more effective hitting on the road the last couple of years. They come into today’s game with a near .300 road average. Today they have a good chance to continue to score runs. Although Garcia has looked decent on the surface in his first two outings, he has been hit hard, and his last solid outing was more of a product of horrific hitting by a slumping Reds lineup at the time. Last year, Garcia was really prone to the long ball, which makes him a liability on the mound when pitching in this park. Right handers alone took him out of the park 23 times last year, which does not bode well for his chances, as the Marlins have underrated power from the right side. Another hidden factor is the fact that Garcia might have the slowest delivery to the plate right now, making him the easiest pitcher in baseball to steal against. The Marlins have a fast and aggressive lineup that could take advantage of this deficiency by turning walks and singles into to doubles. He is also not backed by an ideal bullpen for a team laying such odds.

Twins @ Tigers
Play: Tigers -148
Intrinsic Value: -163
Consider Betting Price: -149
Comment:
Last year, the Twins did not have a talented lineup, but got by with solid starting pitching, solid bullpen pitching, and situational hitting that did not waste out. This year, their starting rotation is depleted, their bullpen is pitching nowhere near the level they did last year, and the situational hitting is just not their. They needed ten innings yesterday to score a run against a sub par Royals pitching staff. These are not problems you want going up against a talented division rival like the Tigers. Robertson has been getting better and better each year, and is once again off to a solid start. He has been hard to hit, and has pitched effectively to both right and left handed hitters. He has always been a pitcher much more effective during night games and in the beginning of seasons, as he has been prone to dead arm. Most of his value comes in the first couple of months of the season when he appears to be a completely different pitcher. Today he has a good chance to continue his solid start against a slumping Twins lineup that has never been nearly as potent on the road. Robertson has also been getting progressively better pitching to this team, and put forth a few solid starts against them last year. Now, more than ever, the Twins need to get some production from their two best hitters, Mauer and Morneau, two hitters that have been thoroughly dominated by Robertson throughout their career. The Tigers bullpen is deep and has the type of arms that could over power this Twins lineup.

There is no denying that Ortiz has been rock solid on the mound to start off the season. However, this is the most compelling time do go against him, as you get value going against a perennial sub par pitcher who has put forth a five plus ERA over the last couple of years. Ortiz has always been streaky and gone a month at a time with solid numbers. But his streaks never last, and always reverts to the sub par pitcher he is at this point of his career. This might be a good spot for him to come back to earth, as he faces a deep lineup that has got to him in the past. Ortiz is most vulnerable against lineups loaded from the left side, which is the case for this Tigers lineup. Ortiz has always become really prone to the long ball, allowing over 30 last year alone. This also is not an ideal match up for this deficiency, as the Tigers have home run power spread throughout the lineup. Although I still feel the Twins potentially have the best bullpen in baseball, at this point of time, they are not pitching like it. They no longer have a reliable southpaw specialist to curtail the effects of the Tigers talent from the left side. Also, both Nathon and Rincon do not look like the same pitchers they were last year, and have been much less effective than their numbers would indicate.

Reds @ Pirates
Play: Pirates -148
Intrinsic Value: -191
Consider Betting Price: -173
Comment:
Snell is the real deal. There are not many 5’11 pitchers that could throw as hard or be as dominant as he has been, but his arm is as live as it gets. He has allowed less hits than innings pitched in all of his starts, and has allowed just one home run all year. Today he gets a chances to continue his fast start against one of the worst lineups in baseball, whom have been struggling and are not as potent on the road. Snell has also been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this year when pitching to left handed hitters, as they have put forth a .095 batting average against him. This is a huge asset, as almost all the Reds talent comes from the left side. Last year, he has success against a few key Reds hitters when he wasn’t nearly as good of a pitcher. He is also backed by the better bullpen, which should allow the Pirates to put forth the superior pitcher throughout this game.

Once again, I am going against Milton. He has never been a good pitcher, and now that his fastball is topping 88 as opposed to the mid 90’s earlier in his career, its hard to imagine that he will ever be a good pitcher. Today he is up against a team that might have more success against him than any other team in baseball. He comes into today’s game with a career seven plus ERA against the Pirates, and allowed ten hits in a little over five innings against them this year. It is no surprise that there are a few key hitters spread across the lineup that have dominated Milton throughout his career. The Pirates are a team better against left handed pitchers, and got to face a similar pitcher yesterday. They have quietly one four games in a row, and are playing with confidence they were lacking last year. Milton is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, which should allow the Pirates to have scoring opportunities throughout this game.

Rangers @ Blue Jays
Play: Rangers +122
Intrinsic Value: +100
Consider Betting Price: +121
Comment:
Whenever I could get positive basis points in compensation for going against Towers, the odds are I there will be value in going against him. Towers got a reality check in his last start, and has a good spot for him to put forth another disappointing outing against a team that he has been dominated in the past against, and a lineup that he simply doesn’t fundamentally match up well against. Towers has a seven plus career ERA against the Rangers, and has been dominated by both right and left handed hitters throughout his career, as they are both hitting over .300 against him. Going up against a balanced lineup that have been hitting the ball well in recent games should be a spot in which he becomes overmatched. There are a few hitters spread across the lineup with success against Towers in limited at bats, most of the numbers accumulated when he was a more effective pitcher. With the departure of Spiers and injury to Ryan, the Blue Jays bullpen is not nearly as talented or deep as last year, which is a liability when a starting pitcher not expected to eat up a lot of innings is on the mound.

Tejada seems to be a much improved pitcher this year. His problem has never been his stuff, rather his lack of command that has lead to a lot of walks. However, this is a deficiency he seems to have improved on this year, as he has walked more than three batters in just one start this year. He is also one of the rare young pitchers that has actually been more effective in his road starts throughout his career, and could be overpowering when facing lineups that have not seen him before, which will be the case for the Blue Jays. He comes into today’s game with a career road ERA in the low threes, and has flat out dominated right handed hitters in his young career. This does not bode well for a right handed loaded lineup like the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays lineup gets more depleted each week, as now along with Johnson and Glauss, Zaun is out for a while.

Brewers @ Astros
Play: Astros -156
Intrinsic Value: -178
Consider Betting Price: -162
Comment:
Over the last couple of years, Oswalt has been one of the more compelling home pitchers to bet on. Despite being categorized as an elite pitcher, his numbers have been able to out produce his price tag. He has been able to put forth a sub three home ERA in back to back years, while he seems to have continued this trend this year, allowing just one run in each of his three home starts. This is a huge asset when the home pitcher is pitching in a hitter’s park like he does. Although he does not have the most impressive numbers in his career against the Brewers, all his struggles against them have been in Miller Park, as he has dominated this lineup in his home park. He has also dominated about half the hitters that will be in today’s lineup, including their hottest hitter Fielder, who has just one hit in fifteen at bats against him. He is one of the best pitchers in eating up innings, which is also a nice asset as the Astros bullpen is tired after the last series. Wheeler got a much needed day off yesterday.

I am a fan of Capuano, but he just isn’t the same pitcher on the road compared to the one at home. Although he is off to a solid start this season, he has just pitched one outing away from home, and did not look sharp against the Astros last week, where he allowed ten base runners. Much like Oswalts situation, the Astros are a team in which Capuano is able to put forth solid outings against in his home starts, but struggles against them on the road. He has a near five career ERA in this park, and his career 4.50 road ERA is a far cry from his solid home 3.80 ERA. The Astros are a team much better suited for left handed pitchers, and it has already shown this year.

Cubs @ Cardinals
Play: Cubs +116
Intrinsic Value: -108
Consider Betting Price: +106
Comment:
Although I feel Reyes has the potential to be an elite pitcher in the league, he just hasn’t shown that to be the case in his young career. He continues to pitch poorly out of the stretch, and has not been able to get out of stress situations. This may be exactly what this Cubs lineup needs, as there main problem this year is hitting with runners on base. The Cubs have one of the most talented lineups in baseball, and it is just a matter of time until they show that to be the case. They have hit Reyes hard in both his starts against them, and his inability to pitch to right handed hitters effectively so far this season could be a problem going up against a lineup loaded from the right side. The Cubs lineup has also become much more complete now that it appears Theriot has taken over the starting role, as Isturis was a liability at the plate and rally killer in clutch situations. Reyes is not known to go deep into games, and the Cardinals bullpen is not terribly talented. Marquis bat just adds to the talent, as the Cubs essentially have nine hitters.

Marquis always has had the talent to be a solid pitcher, but poor mechanics and a weak mental makeup has plagued him in some years. These are two deficiencies in which he has appeared to have improved on this year, as he is off to a dominating start, including his last outing, where he pitched seven shutout innings against this Cardinals lineup. He has always been a pitcher that has not shown a problem pitching on the road, and has shown to have the upper hand against a few of his former teammates, including Edmonds and Rolen. Last year, his biggest problem was allowing the long ball, which was a huge concern, as he is a sinker ball pitcher. This year, he has yet to allow a home run. He is backed by a deep and talented bullpen that can not underachieve for much longer. The Cardinals have been hitting the ball better, but still lack the talent and depth to be a potent lineup.

Angels @ White Sox
Play: White Sox -126
Intrinsic Value: -142
Consider Betting Price: -129
Comment:
Santana is a fundamental handicappers dream, as his pitching is heavily correlated to situational variables. There is not a pitcher in the league whose productivity has a higher disparity at home and away from home throughout his career than Santana. He comes into today’s game with a horrific career road ERA of 6.78, which is more than twice that of his home ERA. He just doesn’t have the mental make up to pitch on the road, and the longer this problem lasts, the harder it will be to shake out of it. His struggles stems from his lack of command on the road. He walks a lot more batters early in the game, and then just throws it over the plate once he loses the confidence. This does not bode well for his chances in this game, as the White Sox have one of the most patient lineups in the league, that could take advantage of his lack of command. They also have the power spread across the lineup to quickly turn those walks in two runs. Santana also allows his fair share of home runs on the road, which also may be a problem when pitching in this park. Although he is backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, almost all their talents likes in the back end, something that may not be a factor in this game if he continues to struggle like he has on the road. Shields has not looked good on the mound of late either.

I am more of a fan of betting against Contreras, but it appears that the Angels recent hot streak has allowed Contreras to finally come with value. Aside from the first inning, Contreras was dominant in his last outing, as he retired sixteen straight batters at one point. He is also an ideal pitcher to go up against a hot lineup, as his multiple arm angles and different pitches can curtail the effects of a lineup that looks locked at the plate. Contreras has always been more effective at home, and has had past success against the Angels, including two dominating outings against them in both his starts last year, as he went at least eight innings in both, and allowed just one run. He is backed by a bullpen that got the day off yesterday.

Royals @ Mariners
Play: Mariners -129
Intrinsic Value: -185
Consider Betting Price: -168
Comment:
Once again, the Royals are overvalued on the road. The main reason for being overvalued in this game is because of the fast start by De La Rosa. There is no denying he looks like a much improved pitcher this year, and has the stuff to dominate any lineup in the league. However, he has yet to prove capable of pitching well on the road this year. Despite putting forth solid numbers this year, he still continues to show bouts of wildness, and lacks the ideal stamina to be backed by the worst bullpen in baseball. Although the Mariners have not been scoring a lot of runs in recent games, they have been hitting the ball hard and been plagued by a lot of well hit outs. The Royals best bullpen pitcher has pitched two straight games.

Ramirez appears to be really out of favor by the public, but I feel that he could make for a good value pitcher this year. With the Braves, he was always much more comfortable pitching at home, and feel that trend is more than likely going to carry over with his new team. His biggest problem has been his lack of control and high walk rate. This is a deficiency that should be helped out by going up against a young and impatient lineup that is willing to go out of the strike zone. The Royals continue to really struggle at the plate away from home, and their situational and clutch hitting in non existent more times than not. They have also struggled against left handed pitching this year. Although the Mariners don’t have one of the better bullpens in the league, it has a big advantage over their counterparts.

Dodgers @ Padres
Play: Padres -116
Intrinsic Value: -143
Consider Betting Price: -129
Comment:
I feel now is an ideal time to bet on one of the better young pitchers in baseball, as right now he is really out of favor. During his first two starts, he was plagued by a blister problem that really effective his pitching ability. During those starts, he developed a mechanic issue that helped overcome the blister problem. Once the blister went away, the new mechanics did not, and it showed when he was torched in this third start. He has worked on this mechanical issue for nearly two weeks now, and it showed to have improved a bit in his last start. The Padres say the problem is gone. If that is the case, you are going to see a dominant pitcher on the mound. He has been rock solid at home since entering the league, coming into today’s game with a career home ERA in the low threes. He has also had more success against the Dodgers than any other team in the league, as he has gone 19 innings against them, and has allowed just four runs. Backed by the best bullpen in the National league, and the Dodgers should continue to struggle scoring runs. They face some very mediocre pitching in their last series, and couldn’t capitalize on it. Their situational hitting is lacking, and they continue to swing at pitches out of the strike zone. They have always been known to be streaky lineup, and right now it is evident that they are on a downward trend.

Hendrickson is off to a solid start, but I feel it won’t last much longer. Although he has had past success against the Padres, I feel he matches up better with younger lineups that lack the ideal patience to counter Hendricksons pitching style. Whether he is pitching well or not, he is not a candidate to go deep into games. Although he is backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, it is a bullpen whose best right handed and left handed are leading up to the closer have not looked good on the mound in their last two starts.

-4.23 Yesterday

+23.61 YTD

very frustrating night last nigth with the padres and orioles blowing leads and yankees not even showing up.

im on board with all your picks, just a bit hesitant on the phillies game. 3 other games that stand out to me are:

giants and zito, winners of i believe 7 or 8 in a row laying -115. zito seems to have found his form and im no believer in davis.

indians -156 over trachsel on the road? im not high on westbrook, but he seems to be better at home.

and are there some injuries or players sitting out for oakland to be only -138 against the drays and shields?

2-1 in the nba last nigth thanks to the suns not imposing their will and walking the ball up the court after the first 5 minutes. now stand at 10-3-2 in the nba playoffs. take under 191.5 in the nets game. also take the heat -5 over bad road team in the bulls. was liking the warriors +5 but ill stay away +3.5 as they have become a public darling.

osuc, thanks for recording nice buffett's write ups!

good job bro! :aktion033

finman13 said:

very frustrating night last nigth with the padres and orioles blowing leads and yankees not even showing up.

im on board with all your picks, just a bit hesitant on the phillies game. 3 other games that stand out to me are:

giants and zito, winners of i believe 7 or 8 in a row laying -115. zito seems to have found his form and im no believer in davis.

indians -156 over trachsel on the road? im not high on westbrook, but he seems to be better at home.

and are there some injuries or players sitting out for oakland to be only -138 against the drays and shields?

2-1 in the nba last nigth thanks to the suns not imposing their will and walking the ball up the court after the first 5 minutes. now stand at 10-3-2 in the nba playoffs. take under 191.5 in the nets game. also take the heat -5 over bad road team in the bulls. was liking the warriors +5 but ill stay away +3.5 as they have become a public darling.

Click to expand...

Swisher is out for Oakland, he has done the most damage against Shields.

buffettgambler said:

Hoping to rebound from my worst day of the season.

Marlins @ Phillies
Play: Marlins +148
Intrinsic Value: +115
Consider Betting Price: +134
Comment:

Click to expand...

I like your play. The only thing with Sanchez is he is a much better pitcher at home - which is no real surprise since he is young. Even his no hitter, if I remember correctly, was at home.

Regardless, you hit the nail on the head regarding Philly being overvalued when they were losing and now when they are winning.

Between Sanchez's road struggles, and Freddy being a day time pitcher, I looked at the over, but it was juicy for my taste.

thanks for the a's tip. i was going to stay away from the game. now i definitely am. anyway, zito has pitched back to back shutout including 7+ against the dbacks this year after a slow start.

trachsel has been hammered by the indians in his career. i know westbrook is winless, but they are really hitting the ball now and i expect them to hammer traschel.

finman13 said:

thanks for the a's tip. i was going to stay away from the game. now i definitely am. anyway, zito has pitched back to back shutout including 7+ against the dbacks this year after a slow start.

trachsel has been hammered by the indians in his career. i know westbrook is winless, but they are really hitting the ball now and i expect them to hammer traschel.

Click to expand...

Lots of guys out for A's. I should load up on TB some more.

http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/chronicle/archive/2007/04/27/SPGS9PFGHG1.DTL

im adding over in the braves as chuck james is now struggling. francis pounded in his career by the braves. playing at coors. both teams have good offenses.

take the over in the phillies. phillies bats warming up and i dont trust sanches on the road. marlins swinging hot sticks to

adding the over in the warriors game. the last 20 games or so they averaged 117 a game overall. the crowd and excitement will make this an up tempo game. warriors will have to force the tempo to have a chance to win.