ATP Picks 4-27-07 (35-27-2) +$760

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Back to back bad days with atlanta blowing 3 run leads in the bottom of the 9th the yanks bringing no lumber to the game last night and SF flat out on fire in LA. Gotta do more homework i guess.

1. 2 Team Parlay ( NY METS -195, DET TIGERS - 152)

Betting these huge moneylines by themselves has been bad for me late so Ill look to put the Mets and Tigers together here at a 3-2 price. The mets appear to be the lock of the day as long as oliver perez doesnt show up and walk the world. The mets come off an absolutly embarresing loss at home to Colorodo where they trailed 11-0 at one point, might of even heard a few boos at Shea that day while Washington is coming off a miracle win over Cole Hamels. If perez minds his manners the Mets offense should swallow up Chico, a lefty, whom the mets are 4-0 against this season. Chico generally doesnt go deeper than 5 innings and he might not even get that far vs the Mets. The mets are 7-2 away and washington is only 3-8 at home.

When I look at the Minn/DET game i see a pretty hot team coming home and a rather sluggish team traveling to a division rival. Detroit took one out of 2 vs the red hot angels and nearly overcame a 7 run deficit to win that one, they then came back and beat up on the chisox in chicago, meanwhile Minnesota had troubles vs KC of all teams taking 12 innings to cross one run and avoid losing two to KC. While the offense has been there for the tigers, minn is absolutly struggling to score runs scoring only 1,3,3,3, and 1 run in each of the last 5 games. Ortiz has been getting wins vs detroit going 3-0 over his last 5 while playing for the angels but the numbers are not impressive, pitching 29 innings and allowing a robust 20 runs while Robertson has lost his last two starts vs Minnesota pitching superbly going 7 innings in each start allowing only 1 and 3 runs respectively. I expect more of the same tonight with Minn stuggling to score and the Tigers bats taking care of business.

3-2 parlay

133/200
 

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2. Philly/FLorida OVER 9.5 -125

This over is getting hammered and for good reason. The last time these two met this season the scores were 6-4. 8-5, and 8-2 and the total between these two when playing in philly has gone over 6 of the last 7 times. The total has gone over for florida on the road 7 of the last 9 games. Florida is the second highest scoring team in the league at 5.6 runs per game and the O/U total this year for them has been OVER: 15-6. Philly is no slouch in the run scoring area either being 4th in the league and they got off to that horrid start. You think maybe the pitchers can hold down the score but Freddy Garcia hasnt gone deeper than 5 innings this year and Sanchez's last three starts have been only 5, 5 and 6 inning outings. This means lots of bullpen action to finish the game and each team has been using the pen a lot lately, especially Florida in that series with Atlanta. Garcia has yet to face Florida but Sanchez has faced Philly once last year and he was whipped up in 4.3 innings giving up 8 ER.

125/100 OVER 9.5 Philly
 

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3. Atlanta -108

The braves had an extra day to think about that 3-0 in the bottom of the 9th they blew down in Florida, traveling to Colorodo where the bats can get even. Though my general process has been to take atlanta vs righties where they are 8-1 and go against them vs lefties where they are only 5-7 this is a case where you need to stick with the bravos, as they have found a team worse vs lefties in Colorodo who are only 1-4. Its not like atlanta is not banging lefties, their last three games vs Olsen, Willis and Glavine they only went 1-2 but could easily have won all three blowing that 3 run lead they had, beating up on Dontrelle and scoring enough to beat the Mets with Glavine, the total runs for the braves in those games: 3, 7, and 9. Colorod however has been bad vs lefties and Francis stats vs Atlanta are not inspiring for the rocks going 5 innings in each start and allowing 14 ER. James faced Colorodo last year and didnt fare well but this is a different pitcher this year. Colorodo banged up on Pelfrey and the mets pen but what about the other two games where in 21 innings they pushed across 2 runs. Play los bravos.

108/100
 

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4. Giants -120

Ive bet against these giants in all three games vs the dodgers and in all three games they beat me. Not tonight. They are on a massive winning streak right now, nothing I would have ever expected and it looks to get bigger tonight vs zona. I dont know whether to start with what Zito is going to do or what the SF offense has done vs lefties. Ill go With ZITO. After a terrible start to the season he has gone back to back incredible starts throwing 13.3 innings and not giving up a run including a 7+ inning performance vs these same dbacks on saturday. He baffled them all day allowing only 4 hits. His career stats vs this team: 22 innings, 2 ER. Meanwhile his opponenet Doug Davis 17.3 innings over his last three starts vs Frisco and has given up 12 ER. SF has been bombs away vs lefties this year going 5-1, while zona is only 1-3 vs lefties. I dont think im backing the better team, but i am backing the better pitcher, hotter team, and better matchup. Go Giants!

120/100
 

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Im liking these 5 teams so much Ill play them together:

Atlanta, SF, NYM, DET, Philly over 9.5 all at bodog

40/602
 

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6. NYY -135 Pettitte

I cannot begin to explain how anemic and uninvolved the yankee offense was last night at the stadium vs toronto, allowing Burnett and the Toronto Bullpen make them look like absolute fools. The Yanks have no excuse tonight with Pettitte going, this 6 game losing streak needs to end tonight or the boo birds bill be out in full force. While Boston is 4-1 this yr vs lefties, Pettitte seemed to handle them in the last even though the bullpen went on to blow it throwing 6.3 innings and giving up only 2ER, while Dice-Kae was bet heavy down in boston and he hadnt been lit up by anyone until he met up with the yanks in his last start giving up 6 runs and 8 hits in 7 innings. There are many question marks coming into this game for they yanks; whether Pettitte can go deep enough to keep the pen out, whether Jeter will be 100%, whether they play with some passion. I think this game is so much more important to the Yanks and all three of those things will happen for them tonight. The yanks longest losing streak last year was 4, it ends at 6 tonight. Usually take the over in this series but Pettitte must be lights out tonight so Ill pass on that. The Yanks blew a lead in all three games in boston last week, if they get a comfortable lead tonight I think it will hold. I would not be playing the Yanks tonight if Jeter were not in, last night Minkiewitz hit 2nd and nobody was ever on base for abreu, arod, or giambi. Jeter will get find his way to first base and take the pressure of the hitters and back on Dice-Kay.

135/100 NYY

If they lose tonight they might better call up bernie, Paul oneil, al leiter and david cone.
 

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yanks call up jim abbott, al leiter, and david cone
 

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