MLB: Saturday April 28th Plays

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Coming off one of the more disappointing 5-4 days, as all nine teams I bet on had the lead in the 8th inning. Last night had makings for a real good night, but it wasn’t meant to be.

I may add more later.


Rangers @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -112
Intrinsic Value: -132
Consider Betting Price: -118
Comment:

Although I took the Rangers last night, this is a series in which home field advantage is magnified, as both lineups are much more dangers in their home park. The Blue Jays were unable to showcase that last night, as they were up against a pitcher with his A stuff. Today they get a shot against a pitcher whom has had his A stuff just once this year and has really struggled pitching against the Blue Jays throughout his career. Millwood has really been hittable this year, and left handed hitters have been dominating him. Putting forth a sub par first month of the season was the last thing he wanted, as he was out to prove last years disappointing season was just a fluke. Today is not a good chance for him to turn things around, as he is up against one of the most dangerous home hitting lineups in baseball. He has always been known to start out seasons slow, and has been easier to pick up during day games throughout his career. Thomas has dominated him, while the Blue Jays are expected to get Glauss back in the lineup, which gives them their dangerous bat they have been missing in the lineup the last few series. The Blue Jays young role players have really been stepping up their game, making the back end of the lineup a real threat. The Rangers bullpen lacks the ideal depth to back up a struggling pitching going up against a dangerous lineup.

Despite his five plus ERA, Chacin has looked solid in three of his first four starts. He is also an ideal pitcher to go up against this Rangers lineup, as he is at his best against aggressive hitters. It is no surprise that he has dominated them in both of his starts, as he goes into today’s game without allowing a run in fourteen innings of work against them. Chacin has improved his control from last year, and has always dominated left handed hitters, which does not bode well for a Rangers lineup whose biggest threats bat from the left side. The Rangers have just four home runs against left handed pitchers this year, and are batting only .203 on the road.
 

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Cubs @ Cardinals
Play: Cubs +104
Intrinsic Value: -131
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:

There is no denying that both the Cubs lineup and Zambrano have been underachieving all year, but I have no problem backing both at an undervalued price. Zambrano is an emotional leader that brings a needed intangible to the table in this rivalry series. It is no surprise that he has risen his game when playing against the Cardinals, and has dominated them throughout his career. He comes into today’s game with a career 2.50 ERA against them, and has been getting progressively better pitching against them. In three starts last year, he managed to finish with a 1.89 ERA. There is not another park in baseball in which he has put forth more impressive numbers in, as he has gone 38 innings in this park, and has allowed just three runs. Zambrano continues to pitch more effectively on the road, and has always been one of the better day game pitchers in baseball. The Cardinals have several hitters that have struggled against him in the past, which is the last thing this struggling lineup needs. He is backed by a deep and underrated bullpen that has the talent to turn things around.

Wainwright is another solid pitcher in this game that has been struggling. However, his struggles might last longer, as his best pitch just hasn’t been effective. He was dominated by the Cubs last week, as he allowed twelve hits and seven runs in a little over five innings of work, and has struggled against them in the past. He continues to put forth most of his struggled during day games when his big curveball appears to be much easier to pick up. He comes into today’s game with a career day game ERA of 5.20, a far cry from his low 2 nights ERA. Last years success predominantly came from his ability to dominate right handed hitters, an asset that has quickly become a liability. There are a few hitters with success against him in limited at bats. He is not backed by a terribly deep bullpen.
 

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Marlins @ Phillies
Play: Marlins +118
Intrinsic Value: -110
Consider Betting Price: +104
Comment:

This is a good spot for Willis to get things on track after putting forth two disappointing outings in a row. He is up against a hot Phillies lineup that he matches up well against. He put forth a quality start against them once this year, and has given them more problems in the past than his numbers would lead you to believe. Much like Zambrano, Willis has been more productive during road games. He has also had solid success against a few key hitters in today’s lineup, as Rollins, Utley and Victorino have struggled against him, while he is also a match up problem for Howard. When on, Willis is a workhorse that could eat up a lot of innings, which is a huge asset right now for the Marlins, as their bullpen is struggling and appears to be overmatched by this Phillies lineup.

Eaton just isn’t the same pitcher he was prior to his injury. He continues to be really hittable and has struggled pitching out of the stretch. This is not a good spot for him to bet things back on track, as he is up against one of the hottest and most underrated lineups in baseball, which has given him problems in the past. The Marlins continue to hit the ball well on the road, and their depth really puts stress on opposing pitchers. Eaton is not known to go deep into games, which does not bode well for the Phillies chances, as their sub par bullpen lacks ideal depth, and had to get in a lot of work yesterday.
 

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Royals @ Mariners
Play: Mariners -108
Intrinsic Value: -125
Consider Betting Price: -112
Comment:

This is an interesting game, as it means a lot for both starting pitchers. Meche pitches against his former team for the first time, inside a park that he has had a lot of success in when on the Mariners. However, Meche’s biggest problems have always been the mental aspect of pitching, and not pitching well under pressure. This has been the main reason for his struggles on the road throughout his career. Now as a road pitcher, he is more prone to struggle in this park, especially since their will be addition pressure on wanting to pitch well against his former team. Although he has done a good job going deep into game this year, his propensity to accumulate high pitch counts early in games does not bode well for the Royals chances, as he is backed by the worst bullpen in baseball, a bullpen that the Mariners had no problem scoring runs against in last nights game. Meche has always been much more effective during day games, and comes into today’s game with a near five night game ERA in his career. The Mariners are starting to build some momentum and confidence, something that is clearly lacking for a Royals team that continues to lose close games.

This is also a big start for Weaver, as sooner or later he will have to put forth a start that resembles a big league pitcher if he wants to continue to pitch in this league. This is a good spot for him to turn things around, as he matches up best against younger lineups willing to go out of the strike zone to chase his junk pitches. He also matches up best against lineups that are not much of a threat from the left side, which is also what the Royals bring to table. Also helping another one of his deficiencies in this game, allowing the long ball, is the spacious ballpark and lack of power on the Royals. All these variables give Weaver a good chance to finally put forth a decent outing. He is also backed by a better bullpen compared to his counterparts.
 

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Dodgers @ Padres
Play: Padres -124
Intrinsic Value: -163
Consider Betting Price: -148
Comment:
Heartbreaking loss for Padres backers as they gave the game away about five times in last night’s game. However, it appears that I like their chances a lot more than linesmakers in this game. Don’t put too much stock into Tomko’s fast start, as he has been one of the most situational pitchers in all of baseball throughout his career, and in almost all his starts he has had favorable situational variables working in his favor. This will not be the case in tonight’s game. First of off, Tomko has consistently been one of the worst road pitchers in baseball over the last ten years. He comes into today’s game with a mind boggling disparity of home and away performances over a career, as his road ERA is 5.32 as opposed to his mid three home ERA. He has also been known to start seasons off slow, has struggled pitching against the Padres in this park in past years, has struggled more during night games throughout his career, and has been most vulnerable against lineups that are loaded from the left side. If Tomko wants to continue his overachieving ways, he will have to overcome all these unfavorable situations. The Dodgers have a solid bullpen, but this is a series in which they have a bullpen disadvantage.

Unlike Tomko, Maddux has had to pitch under unfavorable situations in his last two starts. However, he finally gets a situation in which he thrives in tonight’s game. He has dominated the Dodgers throughout his career, and prefers pitching to lineups that he has deep history with their hitters, which is the case in this game. He has pitched well in this park, and works best under big parks. The Dodgers lineup is built to hit fastball pitchers, which Maddux isn’t. Although they haven’t shown it in recent games, the Padres have the best bullpen in the National League.
 

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Angels @ White Sox
Play: Angels +120
Intrinsic Value: -107
Consider Betting Price: +116
Comment:
Although I did not expect Weaver to put up numbers anywhere near last years, he is still a much better pitcher than the one he has been displaying on the mound since coming off of his injury. Sooner or later his command will come back to him, and I am willing to take my chances that it will when getting him as an underdog. Pitching on the road will actually put less pressure on him, and actually pitched better away from home last year. A large part of Weavers success last year is the fact that his style of pitching gave match up problems for hitters that have never seen him before. Although this embedded option is quickly going away, the White Sox hitters have still yet to hit him. He is backed by what might be the best 7th,8th, and 9th inning bullpen combination in baseball, so six strong innings could make it really hard for the White Sox in this game. The White Sox will also be without their best hitter, Thome, which might prove really costly, as the only hitters that were able to have some success against Weaver last year were left handed hitters.

Although they are not one of the better lineups in the league, the Angels are one of the hottest. They have a few hitters spread across the lineup hitting the ball well right now, which puts pressure on a pitcher each inning. They are also a lineup that has shown to be more productive on the road the last three years. This might be a spot in which Garland has a setback, as he has not had success against this team in the past, and adding more problems is the notion he has struggled against new addition Mathews as well. The White Sox bullpen is not nearly as good as their opponents.
 

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+.18 Yesterday

+23.79 YTD

BG, what are your thoughts on Hoffman and the last couple of saves going south?
 

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+.18 Yesterday

+23.79 YTD

BG, what are your thoughts on Hoffman and the last couple of saves going south?


Hoffman simply has not been that good of a closer since he blew that save in the all star game last year. He simply isn't as effective as he once was, nor will he ever be. That said, he is still one of the best closers in baseball and should be able to rebound off the slow start.

In yesterday's game, he would have not blown the save if it weren't for two horrible fielding mistakes. The first one was when Gonzalez wanted to get the lead runner in a 2 run game on Furcal's bunt. He had no business not tagging first base to begin with and get the first out. If he did, the Dodgers would have only scored one run. Once they scored the first two, they had no business scoring two more on Martin's double. Cameron, usually a solid fielder, had a horrilbe read on the ball, underestimated its carry by jogging to the warning track, and made a bad effort in his extension.
Just a tough loss.
 

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BG, Texas changed their lineup last night and seems to be working out. I laid off on this game to see if the changes would work today. Did you factor that in your capping.
 

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BG, Texas changed their lineup last night and seems to be working out. I laid off on this game to see if the changes would work today. Did you factor that in your capping.

It's too early to quantify the effects of the structual change of the Rangers lineup, so for now, I am not adjusting the power ratings, but will watch closely and adjust when I think it is prudent.
 

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It is too close to game time to do a write-up. But right now, underdogs are hot. The public is fickle group, and are right now shying away from the big favs. This is forcing some late line movements on underdogs, and creating some value on favorites.

Devil Rays @ A's
Play: A's -170
Intrinsic Value: -194
Consider Betting Price: -174
 

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