Boxslayer's MLB Saturday (52-43, +22.45)

Boxslayer · Apr 28, 2007

52-43, +22.45

6-2, +10.33 units yesterday to get back on track. Had some good time to go over the card yesterday and wasnt rushed, and I have that same opportunity again today - so I am expecting big things here again.

Note: You will notice I am beginning to play a few more plays, and even though it isn't my style (I usually prefer quality over quantity), I will continue with this approach because all of my leans have been hitting. So I will cut back on unit size, you will see less 4*+ plays, and you will see 1* and 2* plays for the most part, with a very rare 3*, 4*, 5* sprinkled in.

2* Toronto Bluejays -114

I had to go with Robinson Tejeda last night, I guy I said from day 1 has a high ceiling and can do good things in this league and he didnt disappoint as he moved to 4-1 on the year. But here, in this particular spot, I have to switch over to the Bluejays today at home in a bounceback spot. I love fading teams that don't play particularly well on the road, when they have to go on the road, in a dome nonetheless, and face a lefty.

The name of Kevin Millwood vs. a name of Gustavo keeps this line respectable here and gives the Bluejays value. They have been playing good ball, and despite going down 5-0 yesterday, I liked the way they battled back to 5-3, and I think this team will show some signs of life again today. Chacin hasn't faced the Rangers much, but in his brief matchups with these hitters, he has held them in check.

Boxslayer · Apr 28, 2007

1* Detroit Tigers -1.5 +130

Justin Verlander is one of the top young right handers in the league and the Tigers have won their last 3 games that he has appeared in. I like him in this spot to keep it going as Minnesota is just okay on the road. Verlander at home, during day time, while he is rolling is a good spot to bet on him. Verlander has dominated these Twins in 3 past meetings giving up just 2 runs in over 22 IP. Silva, on the road, and vs. this Tiger team is a dangerois spot for him. The Tigers are batting .335 as a team vs. Silva in over 100 at bats. Even a catlyst like Carlos Guillen is batting over .500 vs. Silva in over 20 at bats. With Minnesotas recent success vs. Detroit, look for the Tigers to come out today with something to prove, and no better pitcher for Detroit than Verlander to do it vs. this particular Twins club.

shockker21 · Apr 28, 2007

Box.. any thoughts on O/U for DET/MIN ...silva has been overachieving most of this year to date.. and I agree with you when saying detroit should slap him around. instead of the side, I am looking at the O/U leaning toward Over thinking if Minny can get a couple runs they should send the game over ...any thoughts?

Boxslayer · Apr 28, 2007

1* Cubs/Cards under 8.5 -105

Two young pitchers that can be dominant, two arch rivals, reasonable juice and a good number.

Boxslayer · Apr 28, 2007

shockker21 said:
Box.. any thoughts on O/U for DET/MIN ...silva has been overachieving most of this year to date.. and I agree with you when saying detroit should slap him around. instead of the side, I am looking at the O/U leaning toward Over thinking if Minny can get a couple runs they should send the game over ...any thoughts?

Tough call. When I play a side or an over under, I want a lot of things in my favor. That includes the pitching, the hitting, bullpens, recent trends, long term trends, stats, umpiring, etc.

Verlander can be a shut down guy, and the way he has pitched vs. Minnesota (3-0, 0.82 ERA) is not the greatest sign for an over. Plus Minnesota is on the road, and sometimes they tend to struggle on the road - I would think especially in this case as they face Verlander who has shut them down, is pitching at home, and is a very good daytime pitcher.

So in that aspect I lean under. Then I agree about Silva. Overachieving, pitching a bit above his head, and a good spot here for a lineup like Detroit, who has smacked him around, to do some damage against him.

So, IMO right off the bat you have conflicting over/under pitchers.

Trends point to the over, and the umpire, Paul Nauert, is 3-1 overs this year in 4 games umped, averaging 9.75 runs, which is a little above what this line is.

Then you have to factor in these two bullpens, which are great bullpens with guys like Zumaya, Nathan, etc. If you don't get runs early on Verlander, you probably aint getting much help late either with these pens.

Here, with Verlanders ability and past success vs. Minny Minny's teneency to struggle on the road, Silva overachieving, I see Detroit pulling away, and they have the bullpen to hold it....which is why I bet -1.5.

I'd LEAN to the over about as small as a human being can lean to a side, but am obviously not betting it as Verlander can be a shut down guy, then you need Detroit to go OFF offensively to send this over. Tough, tough call. Good luck whatever you decide.

Dr.Swamee · Apr 28, 2007

Nice day yesterday.

Boxslayer · Apr 28, 2007

2* New York Yankees -103

Gotta do it here. I like the Yanks to break out today vs. Wakefield. Pressure is on Torre if the Yanks get swept, this team will respond for him. Wakefield's knuckleball doesn't work as well on the road, and it's easier to pick up during daytime. Look for Karstens to battle just enough to keep the Yankees in this game and in the lead. I like betting on teams after blowout losses.....Yanks get off the schnide today.

Boxslayer · Apr 28, 2007

1* Tampa Bay Devil Rays +168

Still scratching my head and will continue to bet Tampa Bay at great prices like these until they get respect. This team can flat out hit. Most of these guys on their team, are absolute studs. You are watching a team full of superstars unfold before your eyes. These arent some overachieving scrubs getting lucky. Delmon Young, younger brother of Dmitri Young was the #1 overall pick of the draft. Upton was a top 5 pick. Carl Crawford is a superstar. Baldelli is solid. On and on, this team is loaded with big time talent. They still get no respect, and thats great for my wallet. I was on them yesterday, and I will be on them again today. Danny Haren was been pitching outstanding, but this Devil Rays lineup is red hot, and Haren has been pitching just a little above his head, and this is a good let downspot for him. Casey Fossum is a lefty that is the definition of crafty and may give Oakland problems today. Oakland is at the bottom of baseball vs. lefties, and they struggle to plate runs as it is. Look for the Devil Rays to flat out, out-hit and out-score Oakland.

1* Florida Marlins +108

Dontrelle at + money vs. Adam Eaton? OK.

PyRoCaPPer · Apr 28, 2007

NaNaNaNaNaNaNa....Batman

sdf · Apr 28, 2007

Boxslayer said:
2* New York Yankees -103

Gotta do it here. I like the Yanks to break out today vs. Wakefield. Pressure is on Torre if the Yanks get swept, this team will respond for him. Wakefield's knuckleball doesn't work as well on the road, and it's easier to pick up during daytime. Look for Karstens to battle just enough to keep the Yankees in this game and in the lead. I like betting on teams after blowout losses.....Yanks get off the schnide today.

hmmm..dont get why you would bet against a streak. baseball is a very streaky sport. Torre had pressure on him before this series started and yet they lost last night....why is today any different?

since when was Karstens a good pitcher? the bullpen is overworked already. good luck but this is a tough one to play without getting some serious dog money...

Boxslayer · Apr 28, 2007

sdf said:
hmmm..dont get why you would bet against a streak. baseball is a very streaky sport. Torre had pressure on him before this series started and yet they lost last night....why is today any different?

since when was Karstens a good pitcher? the bullpen is overworked already. good luck but this is a tough one to play without getting some serious dog money...

I'm aware baseball is a streaky sport, I've said it in my threads about 5 or 6 times. But a streak is merely a component to capping, and should never be an end-all, the buck stops here decision maker. I just like this spot for them, and because they have lost 6 or 7 straight, I am not going overboard on the play. The Yankees in general, are a much better team than a 6 or 7 game losing streak would indicate. I think they have a lot of pride at home, I think this is just a great bounceback spot for them after getting handled 11-4 last night, I love playing teams off blowout losses.

The pressure is on Torre means it is an additional motivation for the Yankees. It doesnt mean they are going to win. It just means if they fall behind or whatever situation may arise, I don't think they will just quit and call it a day like happens in so many games over the course of a 162 game season. I think they will battle the full 9 is all that means. Why was it any different last night? Because they didnt perform, plain and simple. Motivation is motivation, and I measure in terms of what kind of effort a team will put out. I think the Yankees give a great effort today 1-9.

You say since when is Jeff Karstens a good pitcher? When did I ever say Jeff Karstens was a good pitcher in my writeup? And, furthermore, since when is Jeff Karstens a BAD pitcher? Just because his name isnt Mussina or Randy, and he wasnt in the Yankees original plans to move into the rotation and he didnt get the major publicity doesnt make him a bad pitcher. He was supposed to be a high draft pick, signability made him fall into the middle rounds. He's 24 years old, and he had an outstanding spring training, he has held his own in some games, and he has got knocked around in some games. Part of the learning process. I think coming back home, with his crowd behind him, is important for a young guy.

I said I think he will battle enough today to keep the Yankees in the game. I think he will go 5IP, 2-3ER. And I think the Yankees play much better at home, I dont think they played well last night, I was on the Red Sox last night.....and I think they put out a better effort today and I think they will see Wakefiled well today. Easier to read that knuckleball in daytime.

The Red Sox have won 5 or 6 straight vs. NY. They just blew them out last night. They hear some guy Karstens is on the mound. I think the Red Sox will be overconfident today, and they arent exactly starting a pitcher who is a consistent shut-down guy. Wakefield is hittable. Yankees are at home, their manager is on the ropes, I just think today will be a different story.

Overall, I'm gambling. Nobody knows what the outcome will be. But for today, I'm on this side.

GL.

MRLUE · Apr 28, 2007

today's my first time following your card... with you on all your plays. lets do this!

sdf · Apr 28, 2007

Boxslayer said:
I'm aware baseball is a streaky sport, I've said it in my threads about 5 or 6 times. But a streak is merely a component to capping, and should never be an end-all, the buck stops here decision maker. I just like this spot for them, and because they have lost 6 or 7 straight, I am not going overboard on the play. The Yankees in general, are a much better team than a 6 or 7 game losing streak would indicate. I think they have a lot of pride at home, I think this is just a great bounceback spot for them after getting handled 11-4 last night, I love playing teams off blowout losses.

The pressure is on Torre means it is an additional motivation for the Yankees. It doesnt mean they are going to win. It just means if they fall behind or whatever situation may arise, I don't think they will just quit and call it a day like happens in so many games over the course of a 162 game season. I think they will battle the full 9 is all that means. Why was it any different last night? Because they didnt perform, plain and simple. Motivation is motivation, and I measure in terms of what kind of effort a team will put out. I think the Yankees give a great effort today 1-9.

You say since when is Jeff Karstens a good pitcher? When did I ever say Jeff Karstens was a good pitcher in my writeup? And, furthermore, since when is Jeff Karstens a BAD pitcher? Just because his name isnt Mussina or Randy, and he wasnt in the Yankees original plans to move into the rotation and he didnt get the major publicity doesnt make him a bad pitcher. He was supposed to be a high draft pick, signability made him fall into the middle rounds. He's 24 years old, and he had an outstanding spring training, he has held his own in some games, and he has got knocked around in some games. Part of the learning process. I think coming back home, with his crowd behind him, is important for a young guy.

I said I think he will battle enough today to keep the Yankees in the game. I think he will go 5IP, 2-3ER. And I think the Yankees play much better at home, I dont think they played well last night, I was on the Red Sox last night.....and I think they put out a better effort today and I think they will see Wakefiled well today. Easier to read that knuckleball in daytime.

The Red Sox have won 5 or 6 straight vs. NY. They just blew them out last night. They hear some guy Karstens is on the mound. I think the Red Sox will be overconfident today, and they arent exactly starting a pitcher who is a consistent shut-down guy. Wakefield is hittable. Yankees are at home, their manager is on the ropes, I just think today will be a different story.

Overall, I'm gambling. Nobody knows what the outcome will be. But for today, I'm on this side.

GL.

i agree NY is better than their record, but that's with a solid, healthy pitching staff which they do not have right now. their SP is bad and their bullpen has been worse. So even though Karstens might battle through 5 innings, that's still 4 innings of a bad, overworked bullpen.

good luck with the picks today.

Boxslayer · Apr 28, 2007

MR LUE said:
today's my first time following your card... with you on all your plays. lets do this!

welcome aboard.

i cant guarantee that i will win each day....but if you stick with my plays and play them exactly like i lay them out, I am extremely confident that at the end of each week, you will have more money than what you started with. i never post just for the sake of posting, and i try to put quality plays up that i have done a very good amount of capping on.

good luck.

MRLUE · Apr 28, 2007

Boxslayer said:
welcome aboard.

i cant guarantee that i will win each day....but if you stick with my plays and play them exactly like i lay them out, I am extremely confident that at the end of each week, you will have more money than what you started with. i never post just for the sake of posting, and i try to put quality plays up that i have done a very good amount of capping on.

good luck.

yes, and your record speaks for itself. lets see if we can have a winning day today..

Boxslayer · Apr 28, 2007

sdf said:
i agree NY is better than their record, but that's with a solid, healthy pitching staff which they do not have right now. their SP is bad and their bullpen has been worse. So even though Karstens might battle through 5 innings, that's still 4 innings of a bad, overworked bullpen.

good luck with the picks today.

i agree with all of that. i understand NY's bullpen is overworked, that was part of my writeup yesterday for playing the redsox.

in this particular game though, the key components of the red sox pen are also not fresh for this game.

okijima, piniero and timlin are their guys to hold it down before they get to Papelbon, and they all pitched yesterday. and you gotta be 100% fresh and on your A game to hold this yankee lineup down at yankee stadium

also, the umpire in this game is Froemming, who is a notorious UNDER umpire because he has a big strike zone. 6.44 runs per game when he umps. talk about helping out a pitching staff that is struggling. this game will come down more to hitting than pitching IMO, because it will be which lineup can produce runs with this strike zone...and i like the yankees lineup

with karstens learning the ropes, due for a bounceback, pitching at home with a favorable umpire for him, and the redsox overconfident after putting up 11 last night, i just think he will be able to hold them down enough to give the yankees a good chance to win this game, and thats what it all comes down to for me. karstens will be able to nibble at the corners, while wakefield has no idea where that knuckleball will break and isnt the type of pitcher that can take advantage of a big strike zone. it falls where it may.

again, good luck, and i hope i explained well enough why i like the yanks here

Boxslayer · Apr 28, 2007

1* Kansas City Royals -102
1* San Fran Giants -125
1* San Diego Padres -126
2* NY Mets TT over 5 -130

Got screwed with Toronto. This is the final card for today.

Good luck