ATP Picks 4-28-07 (37-30-2) +$532

ATP · Apr 28, 2007

1. Toronto -121 Chacin

Dont have much time to analyze this but Toronto is a much improved team this year and are coming off a loss to texas, Chacin hasnt been terrible this year and his career vs Texas is stunning 14.3 innings 0 ER, while Millwood has pitched decent vs the jays, it wont be enough, Texas struggles with lefties 2-3 this year and no hit vs burhle. Texas is only 3-9 on the road making this a very cheap line for a good home team.

121/100

ATP · Apr 28, 2007

2. BOS/NYY OVER 11 -115

Was on this over between these teams all last week and for some reason I thought that Pettitte would hold down boston so i didnt play it yesterday, today its not dice kay and pettitte, its wakefield and Karstens, a matchup that just screams basehit, one run will score, two runs will score, etc. All 4 games between these two this year have gone over the total and for the most part the games arent even close to the line. Karstens lone start this year was against boston where he went 4+ innings and allowed 7 runs on 9 hits, now if the yanks were winning there wouldnt be so much pressure on this kid, but for chr.. sake the yanks have dropped 7 straight and have fallen to the basement in the AL East, this performance might be even worse for him and if thats the case then the bullpen will be in the game early yet again which has been bad all year. Lets just say the yanks had a lead late, i wouldnt be convinced that Mo could hold it right now either. Wakefield is always hit or miss, ill guess with the pressure on the yanks to produce today he will be a miss today. His last start vs the yanks was a 6+ ininng 6 ER performance. The Yankees are the highest scoring team in the league at 5.9 runs per game. The Red Sox are the second highest scoring team in the league at 5.3 runs per game. The total has gone over in 9 of the last 11 games for the yanks. According to bodog the yankee relievers have pitched 6.3 innings over the last three games, i dont know what games they have been watching but the bullpen is in the game by the 5th innings every night. The yankees offense would have to go in the tank completely for this to stay under the total, definitly my biggest play of the day.

345/300

ATP · Apr 28, 2007

3. CUBS/ST LOUIS OVER 8.5

If it were a regular year it would be hard for me to take an over when carlos zambrano is involved, but this year has not been an ordinary year. The same can be said for the St louis offense which has been dreadful. But this year Zambrano has been involved in nothing but overs and Wainrights last start vs the cubs he got lit up over 5 innings for 7 runs in that 12-9 extra inning special at wrigley, granted the wind was blowing out fiercely that day but that doesnt excuse giving up 12 hits to a cubs team that hadnt done much all year. Even if either of these guys pitched well, it seems that the bullpens would find a way to blow it with the way these teams are playing. Carlos is having an un-carlos like year at a 6.9 ERA, and wainright after two decent starts vs Pitt is still floundering at a 5+ ERA.

110/100

ATP · Apr 28, 2007

4. Atlanta -124

It almost doesnt matter who is pitching for atlanta with the way they swung the bats last night at coors, they looked like a team that could win over 100 games, pounding out hit after hit, now the bullpen on the other hand is a different story, thats why Smoltz makes this game a much more comfortable play. Over his last two starts vs colorodo he has gone 15 innings allowing 6 ER While Hirsh is yet to face atlanta who is 8-1 this season vs righties. Though Smoltz ERA is a little inflated at 4.26 he has been pitching very well, with the bullpen not keeping runners stranded when he exits. No doubt Hirsh has been good thus far but those games were against SF, SD and LAD, not exactly the same firepower the braves possess. It seems atlanta could score a lot of runs in this ballpark with johnson and renteria getting on with regularity and the Jones' boys starting to heat up in the rocky mountain air.

124/100

ATP · Apr 28, 2007

5. NY METS -1.5 (-135)

If you throw out last nights performance everything adds up to the Mets exploding in this game to make up for Randolph's leaving oliver perez in to bat with the bases loaded in the bottom of the 6th down one run with one out. I will admit that Washington has been playing a lot better of late but they just dont score many runs. They are the lowest scoring team in the league while the Mets are the highest scoring team in the league, the highest away score, hold the best ERA on the road, and the best defense. Glavine could make a career out of beating this team, last year in 4 starts he went 24 innings allowing only 6 ER a far cry from how bad Jerome Williams has been this season with a 7+ ERA and 0-4 record and counting. When he pitches the opposing team wins by 2 or more all the time. Washington is 2-13 over its last 15 at home vs the Mets

135/100

ATP · Apr 28, 2007

3. CHWhitesox -1.5 (+170)

Weaver is a good young pitcher and I believe that he will turn it around soon, just not tonight against this lineup. He comes into this game after getting bounced by Detroit only getting through 1+ innings boosting his ERA to over 9, Garland is 0-1 and his team has lost his last three games giving them incentive to play well for him tonight but he hasnt pitched bad with an ERA under 4. Weaver did well against the anemic oakland offense then died vs the tigers which compares to the whitesox he will see tonight. The stat that just sticks out like a sore thumb is that the angels are 12-11 but only 1-8 on the road and 2-6 as a dog. The Chisox are 11-3 over their last 14 vs the halos. With the exception of that dud vs detroit, the southsiders have been scoring runs. Again I hate betting against this weaver, but in this scenario at +170 the chisox are the play here with the halos on the road.

100/170

ATP · Apr 28, 2007

7. Atlanta/COL OVER 9 -115

Yankees over blows up in my face and these guys may be the aces of their respective staffs but based on how the ball was being scorched off atlantas bats throughout the game and the way colorodo teed off on the braves bullpen it could be a recipe for a lot of runs in colorodo. Here are the scores between these two teams over the last 5 games when played in colorodo: 9-7, 9-8, 10-9, 6-4, and 6-3 all of which would go over or push this total. A yound pitcher in Hirsch may have trouble against such a hot atlanta lineup right now, everyone in the order is scalding the ball except the jones' and if they heat up its over, they could score 10 themselves. Johnson, Craig Wilson, Renteria, mccann, diaz where all smacking the ball. I dont think Smoltz will go all 9 so colorodo should be able to do some damage on all the singles they pile up. The total has gone over 12 of the last 18 times between these two and 7 of the last 10 in colorodo.

115/100

ATP Picks 4-28-07 (37-30-2) +$532

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