HOME TEAM IN CAPS
All games are listed pitchers unless stated otherwise.
Milwaukee –1.03 over HOUSTON
Some things just never change, the Redskins had another horrible draft, the Dolphins still don’t have a QB and the Houston Astros are tooth and nails to score runs. The Astros erupted for 10 yesterday but that was a rare occurrence. In fact, prior to yesterday they had scored just 17 runs in its past seven ball games and once again they rank near the bottom in several offensive categories including runs scored and team batting average. They’ll face Claudio Vargas here and while Vargas’s numbers aren’t great a close look reveals that he’s most certainly on the verge of something good. Vargas has struck out 24 batters and walked just three in 17 innings thus far. Perhaps even more notable is that the Brewers win when he pitches, as they’re 3-1 when he starts a game. For the Astros it’ll be Woody Williams, a guy who’s becoming more hittable with each passing game. Williams has allowed 38 hits in 29 frames and has just 10 k’s all year. The opposition is hitting .306 off him to go along with an ERA near 6.00. The Brewers are vulnerable when facing strikeout pitchers but will face a pitcher here whom is way past his prime and his confidence is very low. Cheap price on a truly live club. Play: Milwaukee –1.03 (Risking 2.06 units to win 2). <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com
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></o>San Francisco +1.18 over ARIZONA
The Big Unit came off the DL and made his season debut against the Padres on Wednesday. It wasn’t pretty. He allowed six hits, six runs, two long balls and walked four, all in just five innings of work. The New York Yankees are the richest team in sports and they also have a starting staff in complete shambles. The fact that they wanted no part of Johnson should tell us all we need to know. Johnson is 43-years old, he’s coming off back surgery and he’s a fraction of the pitcher he once was. He’s favored here on his name and past pedigree and that’s something we can take advantage of. Matt Morris has allowed just one homer in four starts. The opposition is hitting just .245 off him and his ERA is 2.49. The Giants are 4-0 in Morris’s four starts and he’s answered the bell for the sixth inning in all of them. Yeah, we’d say the Giants have a shot here. Play: San Francisco +1.18 (Risking 2 units).<o
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></o>OAKLAND +1.07 over Tampa Bay
The Rays are favored here because Scott Kazmir is on the mound and there’s no denying the fact that Kazmir is a pitcher that 29 other GM’s would love to have. However, the Rays favored on the road against this host is ludicrous. To begin with, the Devil Rays are just 2-2 in Kazmir’s five starts and he comes in with an ERA on the road of 4.85. Don’t get us wrong, Kazmir is good and he pitches deep into games but this has little to do with betting against him. It has more to do with taking back a price against Tampa Bay on the road, a team that’s always been brutal away from Tropicana and this year they’re just 5-8 on the road and they’ve also lost four of five. Remember the name Dallas Braden. He breezed through the A’s minor league system and made his major league debut last Tuesday, limiting the O’s to one run and three hits in six innings. Oakland's first-round pick in the 2004 draft, Braden was 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA and .133 opponent bating average in three starts with Double-A Midland and Triple-A Sacramento before the call-up. The other advantage we have is that the Rays have never seen Braden and most certainly works in our favor. Play: Oakland +1.07 (Risking 2 units).
