MLB: Sunday April 29th Plays

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I may add more plays throughout the day.



Rangers @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays -129
Intrinsic Value: -143
Consider Betting Price: -129
Comment:

Tough loss for Blue Jays backers, as it was inevitable that Gibbons was going to have to learn the hard way that he was not using the right pitcher in the 9th inning in replacing Ryan. Hopefully yesterday’s game allowed him to realize the obvious, that Accardo should be the arm handling the 9th until Ryan comes back. This seems to be a cheap price to be allowed to go against a young pitcher that has really been struggling on the mound. McCarthy just doesn’t appear to have any feel for his curveball, and his confidence is shot right now. Both right and left handed hitters have been dominating him, and the last thing he needs to do is pitching against one of the most potent home lineups in baseball. The Rangers pitching coach believes that McCarthy’s problems are predominantly in his head, something that more than likely won’t be able to change until he is able to put forth a solid outing, something that is yet to occur. Even when on, he is not an ideal candidate to go deep into games, and the Rangers front end bullpen is not terribly talented. The Blue Jays have become a much more dangerous lineup with the return of Glauss.

I am no longer a big fan of betting on Ohka, as his numbers continue to get progressively worse each year. However, he has faced potent lineups in all four of his starts, so a sub par road Rangers lineup may be the thing for him to get things back on track. Pitching in a game in which he is more than likely able to get ideal run support also lowers the risks he is currently bringing to the mound in his starts. Ohka has had past success against the Rangers, and has shown to have the upper hand against some of their role players when they played for other teams. He is also a right handed pitcher that has had more success pitching to left handed hitters throughout his career, which bodes well for him going up against a dangerous lineup from the left side. Hopefully, if necessary, Accardo manages the 9th.
 

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Reds @ Pirates
Play: Pirates +104
Intrinsic Value: -133
Consider Betting Price: -120
Comment:
I have always thought Harrang has never gotten the respect he deserves, but it appears that he is clearly getting too much with the line books put out in this game. He has yet to prove consistently capable of putting forth solid outings against this Pirates lineup, and has already struggled pitching to them once this year. Although he has been more productive on the road since joining the Reds, this is one ballpark he has not had much success pitching in, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA approaching five in this park. There are five hitters that are spread around today’s lineup that have dominated him in the past, including new addition LaRoche. Although Harrang is a workhorse, if his struggles against this team continue, he will more than likely be unable to go deep into this game. He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, which should allow the Pirates to have scoring opportunities throughout this game.

Mahlom is a hard pitcher to figure out, as he continues to allow a lot of baserunners, but has been able to pitching well out of jams. One thing he has done consistently in his young career has been pitching well at home. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.04 home ERA, and has won seven of nine decisions in this park, including a dominant performance last week, where he pitched a complete game shutout, and allowed just three hits against the Astros. What Maholm has also done well throughout his career is pitch to left handed hitters effectively. This does not bode well for the Reds chances, whose main talent comes from the left side. This is also a lineup not built to manufacture runs, and relies on the home run more than most teams. Going up against a pitcher that has allowed one career home run against a left handed hitter can make it hard for the Reds to score runs. The Reds will also more than likely be without Griffey for this game, while Dunn has managed just two hits in seventeen at bats against Maholm. He is also backed by the better bullpen.
 

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Brewers @ Astros
Play: Astros +100
Intrinsic Value: -142
Consider Betting Price: -128
Comment:

A lot of hidden value on the Astros, as the Brewers recent solid play has a lot of the public backing them. I am not a fan of backing Williams, but I do like him in this spot. He has always been a better home pitcher (in large part because he is a fly ball pitcher who always played for home teams with big outfields), but has said in the past that he feels a lot more comfortable pitching at home. Four of his first five starts have been on the road, which may be part of the reason why he has struggled so much this year. He now faces an ideal lineup to get things back on track, as he matches up best against young lineups that lack the ideal patience you need against Williams. It is no surprise that the Brewers have always been a team in which Williams has dominated, as they always possessed this style of lineup. He has dominated Counsell and Estrada, and matches up well against their young hitters that he doesn’t have a past history against. He has always pitched more effectively against left handed hitting throughout his career, which bodes well for him in today’s game, as he is up against a few hot left handed hitters. He is backed by a decent and well rested bullpen. The Brewers are playing a bit over their heads, and will gladly bet against them when they are getting too much respect by linesmakers.

The Astros bats finally came alive in yesterdays game, and they have a good chance to continue that success as they are up against a perennial five ERA pitcher. After a hot start to the season, Vargas came back to earth in his last outing against the Cubs. This may be a spot in which he puts forth two disappointing outings in a row, as he faces a lineup that hit him well last year. As his career progresses, he has become more prone to the longball, which is the last thing you want when pitching in this park. He has struggled against a couple of role players on the Astros in limited at bats, while new addition Lee appears to have his number. Vargas is not an ideal candidate to go deep into games, which does not bode well for the Brewers chances, as the front end of their bullpen has struggled pitching to the Astros.
 

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Braves @ Rockies
Play: Rockies -126
Intrinsic Value: -171
Consider Betting Price: -155
Comment:
Once again, Cook is one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball, and an ideal pitcher to stop a hot Braves lineup. Being a premier sinkerball pitcher, he curtails the effects of facing powerful lineups that have home run ability throughout their lineup and playing in a park that will be live in today’s game. It is no surprise that he has allowed one home run all season, and might be the best pitcher in the game right now in inducing double plays. He appears to be a much improved pitcher compared to the one that he was when he accumulated those sub par numbers against the Braves. He has been dominated right handed hitting this year, which does not bode well for a lineup very talented from the right side. He has shown a good ability to go deep into games and avoid a suspect front end up the bullpen. He has struggled getting run support this year, but this may be a trend that stops in today’s game.

As expected, Davies solid first outing was more of a fluke than a structural change in his pitching, as he has been getting progressively worse with each start. Things shouldn’t change in this game, as he faces a team that has hit him well in the past, and fundamentally matches up well with his pitching style. He has allowed 19 hits and 11 runs in just eight innings of work against the Rockies, and struggled pitching in this park. He has always been horrible pitching on the road, as his road ERA is now approaching seven. Being prone to the long ball is also not a deficiency you want going up against this lineup and during a day game in Coors. Most of the Braves talent in the bullpen comes from the back end, something that could be avoided if Davies continues to struggle on the mound and against this team.
 

Chomping at the bits
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Thanks, BG, we survived the week in spite of 4 consecutive extra inning losses, 4 teams losing in the 8th or 9th on one day, etc., etc. Scary how close to another great week it was!
 

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is there such a thing as an 8 inning line? haha we'd have made a KILLING if there was such a thing. the 9th inning is like the freaking river card in poker. ugh... so dreadful.
 

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is there such a thing as an 8 inning line? haha we'd have made a KILLING if there was such a thing. the 9th inning is like the freaking river card in poker. ugh... so dreadful.


Ha. I wish. Hopefully this comes to an end soon.

GL cruncher.
 

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Angels @ White Sox
Play: White Sox +101
Intrinsic Value: -118
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
Late line movement is overreacting to Thome being out. Anderson is out for the Angels as well, yet the line has dropped 20 basis points. White Sox shouldnt be underdogs.
 

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Just wanted to thank you for posting your plays. You are very consistent and that is such a plus when it comes to the ups and downs of gambling.
 

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