MLB: Monday April 30th Plays

buffettgambler · Apr 30, 2007

I may add more later.

Cubs @ Pirates
Play: Pirates +122
Intrinsic Value: -105
Consider Betting Price: +118
Comment:
In my opinion, the Cubs have been undervalued in almost every game this year. However, the public seems to have fallen in love with Hill, and although there is no denying his early season dominance, he is getting too much respect by linesmakers. His style of pitching takes time getting used too, and the more you see him, the better your chances are. The Brewers showed a lot of improvement in their second go around against them last week. Although the Pirates have yet to face him this year, they got to see him twice last year. Although he has put together solid starts in both his road outings this year, last year he was horrific on the road, putting forth a near seven ERA. He has been known to struggle with his command, an issue that has been getting progressively worse with each start, and has now walked ten batters in his last three outings. The Pirates lineup is better suited for left handed pitching, and they have been hitting them more effectively this year compared to right handers. The Cubs bullpen is solid, but is not pitching near the level they should be.

Hill is not the only young southpaw pitching in this game with a lot of upside potential. Although Duke has some really poor numbers this year, he has put forth a quality outing in three of his first five starts. This is the most ideal spot for him to put forth yet another, as he has absolutely owned the Cubs in his young career. He has pitched against them six times and has put forth a 1.40 ERA, and has won four of his five decisions against them. He has had the upper hand against a few of the Cubs key hitters. He has also been more effective in his career at home and during night games, and is coming off his best start of the season.

buffettgambler · Apr 30, 2007

Orioles @ Tigers
Play: Orioles +148
Intrinsic Value: +118
Consider Betting Price: +138
Comment:
Despite putting forth a quality start in four of his first five outings, including one last week against a team that has dominated him throughout his career, Cabrera remains one of the most undervalued pitchers in baseball. He seems to be much more mature this year, appearing to fix deficiencies that have plagued his career in the past. His command is much improved, he has shown the ability to pitch on the road, and has done a good job getting out of jams. Although he has not put forth impressive numbers against the Tigers, these numbers were accumulated when he was a much less effective pitcher. He put forth a solid start against them once this year, and matches up well against them, as they lack the ideal patience at the plate to take advantage of Cabrera’s propensity to walk batters. He has allowed just one home run all year, and has been nearly unhittable for right handed hitters, which does not bode well for a lineup that is talented from the right side. Unlike years past, Cabrera’s inability to go deep into games is not much of an issue, as he is backed by a solid bullpen.

Bonderman is coming off his worst outing of the season, and if he wants to improve off of it, he will have to do it against a team that has hit him well in the past. Bonderman has put forth a six plus career ERA against the Orioles, while they are hitting nearly .400 against him. Home field advantage is minimized in this start, as both the Tigers lineup and Bonderman have been more productive on the road the last three years. With the return of Payton and Hernandez, the Orioles lineup has become more complete.

buffettgambler · Apr 30, 2007

Phillies @ Braves
Play: Braves -148
Intrinsic Value: -163
Consider Betting Price: -148
Comment:
Although I have been a bit bearish on Hudson this year, as I don’t think he will ever be the same pitcher he was on the A’s, I do think he will be an improved pitcher compared to last year. He is off to a dominant start, as his splitter is one of the most dominant pitches in baseball so far year to date. This is a good spot for him to continue his fast start, as he is up against a Phillies lineup that he has had past success against. Hudson has dominated five of the six best hitters in the Phillies lineup, substantially diminishing the Phillies biggest asset. The only hitter that has shown to hit him well is Howard, a trend that lacks some sustainability, as Hudson has become one of the most dominant right handed pitchers in baseball this year pitching to left handed hitting. He has always been more effective pitching at home, and has allowed just one home run all year. He is backed by a solid bullpen, whose 9th inning is probably much safer in this game, as I don’t think Wickman will be handling this inning in today’s game if necessary. Gonzalez is an ideal pitcher to curtail the talent the Phillies possess on the left side.

The Braves are one of the hottest lineups in baseball, while Lieber has been pitching over his head. This might be a good spot for him to regress a bit, as he has always struggled pitching to left handed hitters throughout his career, and the Braves have four left handed bats swinging well right now. Lieber is not the same pitcher he was when he accumulated a lot of his past solid numbers against the Braves, and is not an ideal candidate to go deep into games. Their bullpen is not terribly talented and has front end pitchers that have struggled pitching to the Braves before.

buffettgambler · Apr 30, 2007

Marlins @ Mets
Play: Marlins +152
Intrinsic Value: +104
Consider Betting Price: +126
Comment:
Good value on the Marlins, as the public continues to back the Mets as much as any NL team, and don’t want anything to do with Olsen. What they are forgetting to realize is how talented he is, and how he rebounded from a slow start in last week’s start against the Braves, and was dominant in his last six innings of work. This is a good spot for him to feed off of those innings, as he faces a lineup that went dormant against sub par pitching over the weekend. Olsen has had past success against the Mets, as he is the ideal pitcher to go up against a lineup whose talent is predominantly better off hitting from the left side. Although he has struggled this year, he still has managed to pitch to left handed hitters effectively, and was downright dominant against them last year. He is also a young pitcher that has shown to pitch more effectively in his road starts, and has put forth much better numbers in night games. He has had success against a few Mets hitters, and when on, could go deep into games. The Mets lineup is slumping, better off hitting on the road, and match up better against right handed pitchers.

There is no denying Hernandez is off to a fast start, but in due time will come back to earth. This may be a good spot for him to do so, as he will more than likely not be pitching 100 percent in this game. He will also be up against one of the hottest lineups in baseball, and a lineup that has gotten more talented from the left side, which has given Hernandez problems in the past. Although he is backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, it not as talented as I once thought. The Marlins have been one of the most dangerous road hitting lineups in baseball this year.

buffettgambler · Apr 30, 2007

Rockies @ Giants
Play: Giants -140
Intrinsic Value: -165
Consider Betting Price: -150
Comment:
Lowry remains one of the most undervalued home pitchers in baseball. He once again is returning to his 05 form which was the last time he was pitching healthy. He has been one of the best home pitchers in baseball since joining the league, but gets valued nowhere near the level of the top tier pitchers that have been putting forth similar home numbers the last three years. A lot of value has been created due to Lowry’s horrific career numbers against the Rockies, which happen to be very misleading. Almost all of his struggles against them happened in Coors. Not only is Lowry a much lesser pitcher on the road, but his style of pitching is a nightmare in Coors, as his looping changeup is just hangs in the thin air, making him a much less effective pitcher. He has actually put forth solid starts against this lineup at home. The Rockies lineup has been underachieving all year and is much less dangerous hitting away from Coors. Lowry is a workhorse that could avoid the Giants suspect bullpen. Although I doubt Benetiz will continue to pitch this well, he is not as vulnerable as he was last year.

Fogg is once again off to a horrible start, as he has yet again put forth a five plus ERA, while hitters are hitting .320 against him. Although he has put forth solid career numbers against the Giants, they might be a bit misleading, as he does not match up terribly well against them. He has always struggled pitching to left handed hitters, and the Giants will more than likely put five left handed bats in the lineup. He has also struggled against half of the hitters he will pitch against in today’s lineup. He is not known to go deep into games, and is backed by a tired and sub par bullpen.

sooner · Apr 30, 2007

Do you play all these plays, or just cap them for the form.
Been following for a couple weeks and looks like you lose or break even most of the time. Win two, lose 2, Etc.
Lot of Luck with your capping

HiPockets · Apr 30, 2007

I image we all reserve a few nut bets to mix in our daily madness. I parlay BG's first three bets of the day as they fall on the 900's game list (I live on east coast and like to catch the results early). The 'BG parlay' hit again on Saturday 4-28. My parlays have been wrenching losers for me (so many recent ninth inning losses) but they are entertaining throwaways for microunits. The BG east coast parlay is up 1.2 units so far for the season starting April 8, which is good cause I am down 6.7 total units for the MLB season. Keep up the winning writes BG.

RunsWithKnives · Apr 30, 2007

Going against the Cubs? Boo. They'll squash the Buccos after having that extra day of rest due to the postponement of the game against the Cards.

everythingthatsgreen · Apr 30, 2007

Is your Marlins bet "listed pitchers" you might want to go ahead and hit it again as an "action" play since El Duque looks doubtful. If they take this game off the board with Olsen vs. Chan Ho then there is no way anyone sees Marlins +152

http://www.rotoworld.com/content/pla...=207042&spln=1

Chan Ho Park could start Monday's game against the Marlins if Orlando Hernandez is scratched.
Hernandez was examined on Sunday after feeling tightness in his shoulder. Jorge Sosa would have been a better option, but Sosa pitched Sunday's game for Triple-A New Orleans. Park currently has a 7.29 ERA for the Zephyrs. Apr. 30 - 10:34 am et
Source: New York Daily News

Preussen · Apr 30, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
Is your Marlins bet "listed pitchers" you might want to go ahead and hit it again as an "action" play since El Duque looks doubtful. If they take this game off the board with Olsen vs. Chan Ho then there is no way anyone sees Marlins +152

Well, it seems the pitching change did happen, Pinnacle already has the new lines with Park for the Mets. Florida is +130 currently.
If you had made "action" bets beforehand, won't the books nevertheless grade the bet according to the new lines?

BG - would you still bet this game after the change and with the new lines?

everythingthatsgreen · Apr 30, 2007

Preussen said:
Well, it seems the pitching change did happen, Pinnacle already has the new lines with Park for the Mets. Florida is +130 currently.
If you had made "action" bets beforehand, won't the books still grade the bet according to the new lines?

BG - would you still bet this game after the change and with the new lines?

No an action bet means you have Marlins +152 regardless of the new line

Preussen · Apr 30, 2007

From the Pinnacle rules:

In the event there is a pitching change prior to the game, the money-line will be re-adjusted and "action" wagers will be graded using the opening price for the new pitcher.

buffettgambler · Apr 30, 2007

My original bet on the Marlins got cancelled. However, they are still undervalued with Park on the mound for the Mets. I will also more than likely add two more plays later in the day.

Marlins @ Mets
Play: Marlins +138
Intrinsic Value: -104
Consider Betting Price: +118

everythingthatsgreen · Apr 30, 2007

Preussen said:
From the Pinnacle rules:

I am still showing Marlins +152 at BetJam, if it wins and its graded we will see what the payout is..

buffettgambler · Apr 30, 2007

Since it looks like the Nats line may have peaked at +258, I might as well put in the write up now. May add one more play.

Nats @ Padres
Play: Nats +258
Intrinsic Value: +185
Consider Betting Price: +232
Comment:
This line is really inflated, as not only is the public continuing to blindly fade the Nats no matter the cost, but they have really fallen in love with Peavy after his highly publicized dominant outing in his last start. Having a lineup that could be dominated by any pitcher in the league, I tend to find value in betting on the Nats when they are up against a top tier pitcher, as the marginal utility gained from having an elite pitcher on the mound does not increase as much against the Nats as it does most teams. Peavey might be prone to a letdown start after his outing last week and now having to go up against the worst lineup in baseball. Peavy has not had much success against the Nats in the past, and being a strikeout pitcher, he is not built to go deep into games. In past starts, this has not been much of a problem as he is backed by the best bullpen in the National league. However, going into this game, it is a tired and overworked bullpen whose closer is not pitching well right now.

Patterson just isn’t the same pitcher he was prior to his injury. However, he should be able to put forth much better performances than the ones he has to start off the season, and has a good chance to do so today against a tired and the most anemic home lineup in baseball. In the past, Patterson had success pitching against the Padres and some of their hitters. The Padres bats have cooled off and should be swinging tired bats after playing 17 innings in the heat yesterday. The Padres are not an ideal team to lay a lot of chalk on, since scoring runs is not their strong suit, allowing games to be close.

Woody0 · Apr 30, 2007

sooner said:
Do you play all these plays, or just cap them for the form.
Been following for a couple weeks and looks like you lose or break even most of the time. Win two, lose 2, Etc.
Lot of Luck with your capping

Since April 6 I find the record is 52-42, a gain of 12 units and ROI of 8.79%.

Since April 15 I find a record of 29-32, a gain of about 4 units and ROI of 4.73%. However since April 15 I have an ROI of 7.15% playing these picks for the 1st half. My 1st half plays are not a constant amount since I divide my unit into 1st half and full game depending upon pitcher and bullpen evaluation from BG's excellent analysis. This difference in ROI does however suggest that he has been unlucky in the late innings of games these past two weeks and yet still maintained a winning record.

Woody0 · Apr 30, 2007

everythingthatsgreen said:
No an action bet means you have Marlins +152 regardless of the new line

This is only true for a few European books that book action only bets i.e. bet stands regardless of pitchers. Otherwise you will get the adjusted opening line with the new pitchers.

OSUCOWBOYS · Apr 30, 2007

+0.00 Yesterday

+ 27.01 YTD

buffettgambler · Apr 30, 2007

Adding

Angels @ Royals
Play: Angels -145
Intrinsic Value: -165
Consider Betting Price: -147

BadassMoFo · Apr 30, 2007

Marlins in the bag, another winner tonight.

MLB: Monday April 30th Plays

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