MLB MONDAY PICKS (13-13-0 YTD -0.40 UNITS) With Writeup

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2007 RECORD: 13-13-0 -0.40 Units

MONDAY 4/30/2007: ONE PLAY:

Baltimore Orioles (D. Cabrera) @ Detroit Tigers (J. Bonderman)

PLAY ON: BALTIMORE ORIOLES (Moneyline, +140) To Win 1 Unit

At +140, tonight's play on Baltimore feels like a steal. Ever since his stellar post-season performance, Jeremy Bonderman has been treated like a bona fide ace. With the role of number one starter firmly in his grasp, Bonderman swiftly started the '07 season off with a bang. That is, until he ran into the Angels. In his most recent start, Bonderman gave up seven runs in the first two innings. In my opinion, this blowup could mark the beginning of difficult times ahead.<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>See,*Bonderman has never dealt with the notoriety or respect that a number one starter takes on. He has never been seen as a threat to hitters. In fact, he has looked more like a punching bag over the years; an opportunity to pump up the 'ol batting average. Now that he's become a big-time name, Bonderman will have to deal with a new type of animal—teams that actually respect his game. Having never achieved a sub-4 ERA season, it*may*be a tough task for Bonderman to achieve "ace"expectations this season. \n\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/div\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>As a power pitcher, \u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Bonderman regularly hits 94 MPH with his fastball. In light of his zippy fastball, he has the ability to snap off some nasty sliders as well. Nevertheless, Bonderman is not exactly a refined pitcher. His fastball can move*erratically at times*and he has always struggled more at home than on the road. I would attribute this phenomenon to Bondermans tendency to overthrow in front of his home crowd. With a powerful lineup of dead-red hitters like Tejada, Mora, Roberts, Huff and Millar, this \n\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Baltimore\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> team seems perfectly crafted for success against Bonderman. A 6.86 career ERA against \u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Baltimore\u003c/span\>\n\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> only further confirms this point. \u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/div\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Facing the overrated Bonderman is the underrated Daniel Cabrera. Having watched every pitch in his most recent start against \n",1]);//--></SCRIPT>

See, Bonderman has never dealt with the notoriety or respect that a number one starter takes on. He has never been seen as a threat to hitters. In fact, he has looked more like a punching bag over the years; an opportunity to pump up the 'ol batting average. Now that he's become a big-time name, Bonderman will have to deal with a new type of animal—teams that actually respect his game. Having never achieved a sub-4 ERA season, it may be a tough task for Bonderman to achieve "ace"expectations this season.

As a power pitcher, Bonderman regularly hits 94 MPH with his fastball. In light of his zippy fastball, he has the ability to snap off some nasty sliders as well. Nevertheless, Bonderman is not exactly a refined pitcher. His fastball can move erratically at times and he has always struggled more at home than on the road. I would attribute this phenomenon to Bondermans tendency to overthrow in front of his home crowd. With a powerful lineup of dead-red hitters like Tejada, Mora, Roberts, Huff and Millar, this Baltimore team seems perfectly crafted for success against Bonderman. A 6.86 career ERA against Baltimore only further confirms this point.

Facing the overrated Bonderman is the underrated Daniel Cabrera. Having watched every pitch in his most recent start against<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Boston\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>, I was very impressed with Cabrera's composure, competitiveness, and overall performance against a \u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Boston\n\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> team that had absolutely annihilated him in the past. You could see Cabrera cringe after every walk he issued during that game. The kid has clearly worked tirelessly on his control. Coming into today's game, he should have plenty of things to be happy about. He pitched a 7-inning, two-run game against \n\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Detroit\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> in an earlier start this season, and his confidence should be at an all-time high. \u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Even though Cabrera managed a good start against \u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Detroit\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\n only twenty-one days ago, I still don't expect the Tigers to show Cabrera the respect he deserves. Today represents a practically meaningless game for the Tigers, especially after a win against division rival Johan Santana. We should see some big swings and big misses tonight against the much-improved Cabrera. Behind their "ace" Bonderman, \n\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Detroit\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> really has nothing to worry about.\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>In sum, \u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Baltimore\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> definitely has enough offensive pop and incentive to sneak a win by the sleeping Tigers. An overrated pitcher and the Tigers struggling bullpen should give \n\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Baltimore",1]);//--></SCRIPT> Boston, I was very impressed with Cabrera's composure, competitiveness, and overall performance against a Boston team that had absolutely annihilated him in the past. You could see Cabrera cringe after every walk he issued during that game. The kid has clearly worked tirelessly on his control. Coming into today's game, he should have plenty of things to be happy about. He pitched a 7-inning, two-run game against Detroit in an earlier start this season, and his confidence should be at an all-time high.

Even though Cabrera managed a good start against Detroit only twenty-one days ago, I still don't expect the Tigers to show Cabrera the respect he deserves. Today represents a practically meaningless game for the Tigers, especially after a win against division rival Johan Santana. We should see some big swings and big misses tonight against the much-improved Cabrera. Behind their "ace" Bonderman, Detroit really has nothing to worry about.

In sum, Baltimore definitely has enough offensive pop and incentive to sneak a win by the sleeping Tigers. An overrated pitcher and the Tigers struggling bullpen should give Baltimore<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> the offensive opportunities they need to cash this big dog tonight. \u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Good Luck\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>",1]);D(["mb","\u003cspan class\u003dsg\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Chase \u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cspan\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003c/span\>",0]);D(["ce"]);//--></SCRIPT> the offensive opportunities they need to cash this big dog tonight.

Good Luck

Chase
 

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