ATP Picks 4-30-07 (40-34-2) +150

ATP · Apr 30, 2007

Had to take a day off with such a horrible week, try to start fresh this week.

1. 2 team parlay: Padres -270 w/ Angels -160

Cant really justify paying nearly 3:1 on one team so Ill put what seems to be a total lock tonight in Peavy with another team I absolutly love in Anaheim. Nobody on the Nationals starting pitching staff has been good at all except perhaps Hill, with Patterson being one I've been high on since the beginning of the season, I have changed my mind with all of his problems and the teams problem of scoring runs for him. We have two different worlds in this game with patterson at 0-4 with a 7+ ERA and Peavy coming off an absolute gem striking out 16 at 3-0 with a sub 2 ERA. Patterson has had his troubles vs SD going 1-3 over his last 4 starts vs the fathers, while Peavy has sparkled going 31 innings and allowing 8 ER over 5 starts, never allowing over 3 in any one game, meaning if the SD offense comes at all they win this game. Even if some fluke like Karstens were to happen the SD is pen is the best in the business vs the worst hitting and scoring team in baseball.

The angels seem like the logical pick in this matchup as its lights out John Lackey and bombs away Odalis Perez. I was all about that 1-8 road record that the angels had until they took care of business at comiskey vs the sox, now im a believer and unlike some teams they are 3-3 vs lefties so that should not be a problem. They are 13-2 SU playing at KC over the last 15. Lackey is only 2-2 and should be better with a 2.3 ERA while Perez is 2-2 nearing 8 in the ERA department. Lackey has only face the royals once over the last 3 years that being a 7 inninng 4 hit no ER performance. For the most part of late the angels have been lighting up the board in games vs the tigers, drays and whitesox, while KC has struggled to cross home plate vs seattle and minnesota. Seems to me with the way Lackey is pitching that 3 runs may be enough to win this one.

1.23-1 parlay

163/200 SD, Angels :103631605

ATP · Apr 30, 2007

2. St Louis +113

I really dont care who is pitching for either side in this game the Cards should win this to dedicate it to josh hancock, they will all be playing with heavy hearts but I think more than likely they can win this game for him, not to mention the starting pitcher for the brewcrew was a teammate to Hamilton not making this such an easy start for him either. St Louis has been in a slump all year and this could be the day they break out. These two pitchers squared off in St louis with the brew crew winning 3-2 as both pitchers were good, Wells going 7 and allowing 3ER, with Suppan going 6 and giving up 2 ER. It seems to me that the cards should be able to handle a pitcher that was on their team for the better part of the last decade. St louis has owned this series when playing at the brewers winning 12 of the last 17. With all of the problems surrounding this team this year, the hancock death, the Larussa tirade, the Larussa preseason drinking fiasco, Pujols not hitting like Pujols, Carpenter going down and the offense not swinging like world champs it just seems like enough is enough and the Cards come back to life tonight.

100/113

ATP · Apr 30, 2007

3. Florida +131

There are really only 3 reasons anyone could be on the Mets tonight and that is that they are the superior team in talent that Florida is only 1-9 as an underdog this season, and that the mets are 4-1 vs lefties.... but the value in florida is too apparent. This young team is playing really well, scoring lots of runs while the Mets have been sluggish over at least the last 6 games. The mets have gotten some wins but that was thanks to some great pitching efforts tonight they get first off the DL chan ho park, nobody I would ever trust to win a game vs Scott Olsen who has had troubles this year but may be turning it around giving up 3 early runs to atlanta last week and grinding through 8 innings and closing the door allowing his team to rally. All of these extra inninng games will catch up to the mets and a guy that may not even go 5 innings will put stress on the pen against a vaunted Florida offense who is now first in the league in scoring. Over the last 50 innings (5 games) for the mets they have scored 17 runs with 5 of those in extra innings, it just doesnt seem like enough to keep up with FLorida tonight. Olsen, over 4 career starts vs the mets has never gotten shelled going 5,6,7 and 8 innings respectively. I guess because the game is in NY the Mets have to be the favorite, but I dont see it, seems like an incredible line for the Fish.

100/131

ATP · Apr 30, 2007

4. Atlanta -140

This line is probably about right with the phillies playing much better baseball, but atlanta were it not for bullpen problems would be even better than their 15-9 record. Lieber is 1-0 and has pitched well but those two games were against washington and cincy, not exactly the hardest teams in the league while hudson has been the right there with Jake Peavy as CY Young contenders going 3-0 with a 1.22 ERA and he should have been 4-0 were it not for bob wickman down in florida. Hudson has already silenced these phills this year going 7 innings and allowing 2 hits and 1ER. Love the fact that Hudson can go deeper than other braves starters so they can turn it over to soriano and wiliams, hopefully no wickman will be involved; whereas, I dont think Lieber is more than a 6 inning pitcher anymore. The bravos have won 4 of their last 5 vs these phils and the bats all awoke in colorodo including the weaker guys: langerhans, wilson and thorman, when those guys hit the ball look out national league. Philly though improving is 2-9 as a dog and only 1-7 within the division in that category. The braves are 9-2 vs righties and will be looking at hamels tommorow with the pathetic redman going so tonight is a must to take this series.

210/150

ATP · Apr 30, 2007

5. Arizona/LAD OVER 7.5 -105

I understand that Webb has been great this year and has won 4 of his last 5 starts vs the Dodgers but the over looks more possible tonight with Zona winning only 1 of their last 5 on the road. Webb's last two starts were against SD going 8 innings in each, but SD is the type of team that you are either really good against or really bad; whereas, this dodger team can jump up and score a bunch in any inning. Im not too impressed with Wolf, he has been involved in at least three overs in a row and typically goes 6 innings, which could be a problem is Arizona can get to him with the dodgers playing 17 innings yesterday afternoon and using the pen for 11 of those innings including 2 innings from Saito and Broxton. The total has gone over in 7 of the last 9 games between these teams when playing in LA. In that 17 inning game the bats were there pounding out 16 hits in the win, they just left a lot of guys on. Arizona has scored 20 runs over their last 5 games and the dodgers have scored 17 runs, if that run productivity continues this will go over.

105/100 OVER 7.5

ATP · Apr 30, 2007

6. Cubs/Pirates UNDER 8 -105

The cubs bats woke up going down to ST Louis against their rivals while Pitt dropped two straight vs the reds. The Pittsburgh rotation has been very effective thus far and the bats for both teams may go into hiding here. Rich Hill has been lights out all season and his two career starts vs the bucs resulted in 2- 7 inning 11K and 9K 1ER performances. Duke has been very solid vs the cubs as well, save one 5 ER performance at Wrigley he has gone 31 innings and given up 2 ER over the other 4 starts. I understand that the pirates are a slightly better offensive team then they were last year and that the cubs are starting to come to life but the career stats dont lie, ill hop on this under.

105/100 UNDER 8