MLB: Tuesday May 1st Plays

I may add throughout the day, as there are a couple of teams close to my target.



Cubs @ Pirates
Play: Pirates +144
Intrinsic Value: +102
Consider Betting Price: +126
Comment:
There is no denying that the Cubs will be putting forth a lot more talent on the field in this game. However, it is quite evident that the Cubs continue to play well below their talent level, and went from an underachieving undervalued team to an underachieving overvalued team in a matter of days. Armas is a risky pitcher to bet on, as he could implode in any start. However, no matter the home park he has pitched in, he has had one of the highest disparities of productivity when comparing his home and away performances. This year appears to be no different, as he was dominated in his first two outings, which happened to be road starts, and came back in his home debut allowing just one run to the Astros. Despite a sub par career, he has managed to put forth a career 3.64 home ERA. Even though he has not consistently showed it this year, he can be really tough on right handed hitters, which is an asset you want when going up against a lineup loaded with talent on the right side. He is backed by a decent and underrated bullpen.

Lilly has looked really sharp to start off the season, but the numbers he is putting forth are not sustainable in my opinion, but are being quantified by linesmakers as if they were. He, much like Armas, has always been more productive in his home starts, and has only had to pitch one road outing all year. His career road ERA is approaching five. The Pirates continue to be a tough team to beat at home, and are better matched against left handed pitching. They will more than likely put in the lineup five hitters that are hitting over .300 against southpaws so far this season.

A’s @ Red Sox
Play: A’s +168
Intrinsic Value: +134
Consider Betting Price: +158
Comment:
Although the Red Sox have been winning money for their backers year to date, they still remain undefeated and will have to maintain a winning percentage above their potential if they are going to produce a profit behind an inflated price tag books continually put out on them. Schilling continues to be priced as if he were the same dominant pitcher he was years back, and even though he has been able to put forth solid numbers to start off the season, he isn’t the same pitcher he once was. This sub par, yet pesky A’s lineup gave him problems last year. It is also a lineup that tends to hit better pitchers as well as the more anemic ones they are up against, and try to play to the talent level of their opponents. Therefore putting a solid pitcher on the mound has the propensity to be over quantified against the A’s. The Red Sox bullpen has been solid, but do not have the advantage over their counterparts in this series.

Blanton appears to be the solid pitcher he was in 05 rather than the struggling and out of shape one he was last year. He has shown great command and poise on the mound, and has been hard to generate hits off of. He has also put forth solid outings in both his two career starts against the Red Sox, which both happened to be pitched at Fenway, which is a huge asset, as this park has been known to give young pitchers problems. He has been dominant against right handed hitters yet again this year, but may still be vulnerable against the left handed bats he faces. However, the potential left handed hitters in the Red Sox lineup come into today’s game with a combined 6 for 33 lifetime against Blanton. He is backed by a solid bullpen which should make it hard for this Red Sox lineup to score throughout this game.

White Sox @ Mariners
Play: Mariners -112
Intrinsic Value: -125
Consider Betting Price: -112
Comment:
Despite coming into this game with a winning record, the White Sox have some serious concerns. Age finally appears to be catching up with them, as players that they were getting productivity from the last couple of years appear to be finally past their prime. Several of their veteran hitters are off to a horrible start, and although they should improve off their current numbers, expecting them to return to the numbers they put forth a the last couple of years might be wishful thinking. The only veteran hitter that has actually hit the ball well this year is Thome, whose absence in the lineup has already proved costly, as they have yet to have someone step up in his place. This might be a game in which their bats continue to struggle, as Washburn is another pitcher pitching like he pitched in 05 rather than 06. He has been locating his pitches really well, and has dominated the left handed hitters he has faced. Whether he was a road pitcher pitching in this park or a home pitcher in this park, he has always been a much more effective pitcher in this park. Not only has he reached a comfort level on the mound, but the spacious outfield compliments his fly ball tendencies and curtails the effects of the White Sox power they have in their lineup. Washburn has done a good job eating up innings, and the Mariners back end bullpen is solid.

Vasquez has started out the season in solid form and has always been one of the streakiest pitchers in baseball. However, he is coming off his worst outing of the year, which may be a potential trend, as he is up against a lineup with a few hitters with past success against him. Beltre, Guillen, Sexon, and Suzuki have all hit him well in the past, while he has yet to show to have the upper hand against any hitters in the lineup. The lineup also has role players with not much of a past history against him, yet match up well against his pitching style. Vasquez has never been terribly effective pitching on the road, and has really struggled pitching to right handed hitters this year, which could be a problem against this lineup loaded from the right side. The White Sox bullpen has a lot of hard throwers, but is a volatile group that also doesn’t match up terribly well against this lineup.

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -144
Intrinsic Value: -195
Consider Betting Price: -174
Comment:
Good value on the Dodgers, as recent line movement indicates that the public is starting to back a young team playing well, yet are failing to acknowledge all the favorable fundamentals for the Dodgers that are making them a value play at this price. Penny is a fundamental handicappers dream, as he is one of the most situational pitchers in baseball. He appears to be completely different pitchers in his home and away starts, and has always been a much more dominant pitcher at home. He has also been a completely different pitcher during night games compared to day games, and has always been much more dominant under the lights. He is off to a dominant start this season, as he has put forth a quality start in all five of his outings, including one in Arizona a couple of weeks ago. He has always had success against the Dbacks and overpowered them in his first outing against them. Being backed by a solid bullpen should give the Dodgers the pitching edge throughout this game.

Hernandez is also a very situational pitcher that needs a few variables to be working in his favor. His finesse style matches up best against the younger and less patient lineups in the league that are willing to chase out of the strike zone. This is a fundamental variable that will not be working in his favor in this game, as the Dodgers lineup is loaded with veteran hitters with a deep past history against him and know what he is about. His soft throws also makes him a candidate to be run on, which could work in the Dodgers advantage, as they have the fastest 1,2 hitters in baseball. He is backed by a sub par bullpen, which should give the Dodgers the advantage in the later innings.

Wow, I have a parlay against your first 3 picks. Normally, I go with you because I like your analysis and style, but today I'm going alone.

As always, Go Cubs!

+7.18 Yesterday

+34.19 YTD

My local guy is threatening to "cut me off". He says he has never seen anything like "me" in his 25 years of booking. HAHAHAHAHA!

Nice day yesterday, thanks. I need to keep a better eye out for your added plays. The last 4 I've missed have been winners!

Adding.


Blue Jays @ Indians
Play: Indians -140
Intrinsic Value: -154
Consider Betting Price: -140
Comment:
It is not often in which I find the Indians undervalued, but once again books appear to be neglecting how much more productive the Blue Jays are at home. Sabathia is quietly shaping up to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. He has started this year where he left off last year, putting up numbers that could be classified in elite status. Last year, the Blue Jays were the most potent team against southpaw pitchers, but that did not stop Sabathia from putting forth solid outings in both his starts against them, allowing just eleven base runners in sixteen innings of work. This year, they are simply not as potent against left handed pitching, as not only did they lose key personnel to hit southpaws, but the injury to Johnson takes a key bat away that can exploit them. Although the Blue Jays are still one of the better lineups against left handed pitching, Sabathia has had past success against a few hitters that have been hitting southpaws well. The Blue Jays bats have not been nearly as effective hitting on the road the last few years. Sabathia is one of the biggest workhorses in baseball and could avoid the weakest link on the Indians, their bullpen.

Burnett is a hit or miss pitcher, that is prone to one of his miss starts, as he has been thoroughly dominated by the Indians in past years, and simply does not match up well against them. There are several hitters in today’s lineup with past success against him in limited at bats. They also possess the patience at the plate that has given Burnett problems. Burnett has never been as effective pitching on the road, and has struggled in this park, allowing over a run an inning here. The Blue Jays bullpen in no longer talented, and lack pitchers that match up well against this Indians lineup.

Great day yesterday!

OSUCOWBOYS said:

+7.18 Yesterday

+34.19 YTD

My local guy is threatening to "cut me off". He says he has never seen anything like "me" in his 25 years of booking. HAHAHAHAHA!

Click to expand...

Ha. I missed this post first time around. Funny stuff.

Gl cruncher/swamee.

Amazing stuff, another sweep (counting the Pirates as either no action or a win)? That's sick......

Nice day. I appreciate your write-ups