Derby Chat with Andrew Beyer
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
<TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>DRF_Moderator:
</TD><TD>Welcome to tonight's Kentucky Derby chat with Andrew Beyer!
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Slewhand:
</TD><TD>Q: Can you give us your opinion on the relative strengths / ratings of various Derby preps the Wood, Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Lanes End, Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, etc and describe which might provide this years best stepping stone to the Kentucky Derby.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>They were almost equally mediocre. Most of the winning figures were in the high 90s or low 100s. The Blue Grass of course was an aberration because of the Polytrack and the absurdly slow pace.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>boboo:
</TD><TD>Q: Is Curlin a false favorite? or is he a super-freak?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>That will be the subject of my column in Thursday's Post/Friday's DRF. I think he'll be a false favorite. We know that he doesn't have the necessary seasoning, and I believe in all of those historical yardsticks that a lot of people dismiss. I would be more hesitant to take a stand against him if he'd run a giant figure in the Arkansas Derby, but his 103 doesn't give him enough of an edge to suggest he can overcome that lack of experience.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>3Dee:
</TD><TD>Q: Does Scat Daddy's lack of a triple fig. Beyer concern you?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Yes it does. And the same can be said for Nobiz. If these were the old days, before people had reference to speed figures, you'd look at these horses' records and say they look great; they've won the big stakes at both 2 and 3. But figures in the high 90s don't usually make you a bonafide Derby contender.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Bob_from_Calif:
</TD><TD>Q: Andy, I would love to know your thoughts on Any Given Saturday. Personally I feel he has the breeding, trainer, Jockey, positional speed and class to be right there. Of course anything can happen so I will be playing him to Great Hunter, Street Sense.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>His race against Street Sense was very good, and makes him a solid contender, in my book. I'm going to be a little hesitant about playing any of the Pletchers, though, because of his mediocre record in the Derby.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Winooski_Tip:
</TD><TD>Q: Many people like Tiago...however, he finished the last f in :13...your thoughts? I think he may be a underlay...
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I can't like any horse related to Giacomo. Also, the history books are very much against any horse with only 4 career starts.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>CHICKENDINNER:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you think there are any health concerns with Circular Quay? An eight week layoff seems out of the ordinary for an upper echelon type horse on the Derby trail.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Pletcher says this is what he wants to do, and though I'm usually skeptical of trainers' comments in situations like this, I believe him. He says he prefers to give horses plenty of time between races as a general rule, so he's doing it here. My feeling is that Pletcher is searching for the right style of preparation to win the Derby (just as his mentor Wayne Lukas searched.) With five horses in the field this year, he can afford to try something wildly unorthodox with one of them.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Mr__E:
</TD><TD>Q: I'm probably going to play against the deep closers Dominican and Zanjero. Their speed figs worry me and I don't think the pace will be hot enough for them to knock off horses like Giacomo did two years ago. What are your thoughts on these two?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Zanjero is too weak, figure-wise--with a lifetime best of 93. Dominican--I don't know. He looks like a Polytrack specialist, but he did outkick Street Sense in the final yards of the Blue Grass. If he's a big, big price I might include him in my supers.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>SJS:
</TD><TD>Q: Andy, is Street Sense going to finally break the BCJ jinx?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Definitely he can. I don't really believe in this jinx. Unlike some of the other historical guidelines that are important, I think the failure of BCJ winners to win the Derby is a fluke. Plenty of horses have run well in both races--they just haven't won both. It's time for somebody to do it.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>slim:
</TD><TD>Q: Mr. Beyer, which of Pletcher's horses do you consider to have the best shot at winning the Derby this year?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I would rate Any Given Saturday a narrow No. 1 over Scat Daddy in the Pletcher lineup. Even though Circular Quay's win at FG was visually impressive and the fig was OK, I can't take him off that long layoff.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>vjcisme:
</TD><TD>Q: what do you think about the fast work of hard spun?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>It doesn't make any sense to me, but neither does anything else the trainer has done this spring. I never understood all of his vacillation about running in the Derby. Hard Spun has the talent and should have been kept on a steady course to the Derby. But it's hard for me to like him with this management.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>SAL:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you think Stormello can make the distance if Kent D. can harness his speed?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>No. It's pretty tough to harness anybody's speed the way the Derby is usually run.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>AtomSmasher:
</TD><TD>Q: Andy, how much importance do you give the Derby horses most recent Beyers? In '99 the best last Beyers ran 1-2 and the EX paid almost $800.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I keep telling myself I should be more slavish to them--I still can't believe that I overlooked War Emblem when he won with the top fig at 20 to 1. In the last decade we've seen how important the figures are in the Derby. Horses coming into the race off a fig of 108+ have done tremendously well, and often get overlooked at the windows. But this year I can't touch the best last-race fig, because it belongs to Curlin.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>bigshu:
</TD><TD>Q: Will you be using Cowtown Cat in the exotics?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Only if I can find a trifecta on the last three finishers. He is my number-one hate in the race. When he won the Illinois Derby, he got the lead in a moderate pace on a strongly rail-favoring track at Hawthorne. The time before that he gook advantage of a similar inside bias on the inner dirt at Aqueduct. He's a bum.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Jimmy_California:
</TD><TD>Q: How should we treat speed figures for performances on the polytrack (i.e. such as from the Bluegrass)?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>dreamer:
</TD><TD>Q: Can Great Hunter win without an exceptionally fast pace and at what odds would you consider him a good value play?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I'm not sure what to make of him. I thought he was being outkicked when he got into that trouble at Keeneland--and he is a horse who had previously shown he likes Polytrack. His last dirt number, at Santa Anita, was good enough that you have to consider him a contender, though. I'd consider 10-1 or 12-1 the right price for him, I guess.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>3Dee_2:
</TD><TD>Q: Who do you feel will definitely not get the distance
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I think it's pretty obvious (to everybody but the trainer) that Teuflesberg won't be able to go 1 1/4 miles. He's never passed a horse in the stretch, and he's never won beyond a mile.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>clancy:
</TD><TD>Q: does Liquidity have any chance of fininishing in the money at about 50-1 ???
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I can't like him. I don't understand why Doug O'Neill has kept him on the Derby track after his last 2 bad races. But he does show a figure of 102 at 1 1/8 miles, so that might be a basis for throwing him in at a huge price.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>LarVato:
</TD><TD>Q: Post position will help determines this year derby with so many horses so close, which PP will be a death sentence? 17-20 or 1-3
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>All the trainers now seem to have succumbed to a mass delusion that inside posts are death and outside posts are desirable. But I'd always want my horse to have an inside post. Yes, you might get caught in traffic there, but horses breaking from the outside are assured of losing ground. Moreover, the jockeys who break from far-outside posts usually have to hustle just to get position, and sometimes that hustling doesn't help a horse--remember Point Given's trip?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Winooski_Tip:
</TD><TD>Q: Can any justification e given to Sam P?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>My friend Andy Serling thought he had a tough trip in his last and will be an overlay on Saturday. I don't think I agree that the trip was so notable. But like so many of the others, Sam P. has run a figure (his 99 at Santa Anita) that puts him close to everybody else.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Sir_Ralston:
</TD><TD>Q: Last year we had Steppenwolfer & Jazil as bonafide deep closers, do we have any this year?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I don't think there are any horses that slow in the early going. Circular Quay has been running from far back in his recent starts, but he was quick enough to win at 5 1/2 and 6 furlongs last year.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>charlie_horse:
</TD><TD>Q: How important is the two year old foundation for derby success?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>This is a key component in my upcoming column on Curlin. It is essential. In no other race would you be concerned about what a horse did a year earlier; but the Derby is so demanding that you can't cram sufficient preparation into a few months. It's a huge plus if a horse has won at a mile or more at 2, but at the minimum it is essential that he has raced once or twice as a 2-year-old. The stat that says nobody has won since 1882 without racing at 2 is not a fluke.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>BG:
</TD><TD>Q: FROM BG: Andy, what do you think of Nobiz Like Showbiz's chances to win the Derby?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Everything about him looks good except his figures. He's got the 2-year-old foundation; he's got an outstanding trainer in Barclay Tagg. But he still hasn't run a number. When Funny Cide won the Derby, you'll remember, he tipped his readiness by running a figure of 110 (as I recall) in the Wood. I was looking for something like that from Nobiz--not a 98.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Unitas:
</TD><TD>Q: Why the seemingly widespread disrespect for Scat Daddy? His times aren't exceedingly fast, yet he continues to win...Will the distance be his achilles?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I don't know that he's necessarily been disrespected. His wins in Florida were OK, but he didn't blow anybody away.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>the_squire:
</TD><TD>Q: Given the sameness of this year's field speed-wise, would you say there should be more of an emphasis on pedigree/Tomlinson ratings when handicapping the Derby than in years past? If so, who do you see as the best to get the distance?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>DC:
</TD><TD>Q: You site historical reasons for lightly raced colts not winning the Derby- what about the historical rule of 3 or 4 three year old prep races ? Not 2 or 5 prep race. Street Sense,Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Stormella,Dominican have only 2 prep races like
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Well, training styles are changing and good horsemen are giving their horses lighter and lighter preparation. Barbaro upset the rule that horse need a prep race within four weeks of the Derby. So I think it's more important to ask if a horse has sufficient overall preparation rather than whether he qualifies under a specific rule. Street Sense, Circular Quay and Greater Hunter have all certainly done enough to be fit on Saturday.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>TOYMAN:
</TD><TD>Q: Would you consider AGSs performance in the Wood as a bounce?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I don't really believe in" bounces" most of the time. But I'd nevertheless be willing to forgive him for that sub-par performance. I suspect that Pletcher will have him revved up to run back to the level of his Tampa Bay race.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>55555:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you think Street Sense's last race took too much out of him coming into the Derby?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>No--he only exerted himself in the last quarter mile. The same can be said for all the other horses.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>ash3sue6:
</TD><TD>Q: can you conclude whichever jhonny velazquez opts to ride is todds best horse
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Jockeys are so often wrong when they make these decisions that I wouldn't let his choice sway me a bit. I think it would be very hard for him, Pletcher or any handicapper to say whether Circular Quay, Scat Daddy or Any Given Saturday is the best horse.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>HDembski:
</TD><TD>Q: How bout a live Bomb in Sedgefield? We already know he can get the distance being Kin to English channel. Most recently sharpened up on turf now returns to dirt. what do you think?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I don't kow what he's doing in the race. He seems to be a turf specialist who can also handle Polytrack. This is a bizarre spot to be testing him on the dirt for the first time.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>ctrentman:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you think Stormello will rebound after the Florida Derby performance
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I don't think he can rebound enough to get the 1 1/4 mile distance.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Thanks, everybody, for joining us tonight. My final picks will be in the Friday Wash Post and the Saturday DRF. Have a great Derby!
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Tuesday, May 1, 2007
<TABLE border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>DRF_Moderator:
</TD><TD>Welcome to tonight's Kentucky Derby chat with Andrew Beyer!
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Slewhand:
</TD><TD>Q: Can you give us your opinion on the relative strengths / ratings of various Derby preps the Wood, Florida Derby, Blue Grass, Lanes End, Arkansas Derby, Santa Anita Derby, etc and describe which might provide this years best stepping stone to the Kentucky Derby.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>They were almost equally mediocre. Most of the winning figures were in the high 90s or low 100s. The Blue Grass of course was an aberration because of the Polytrack and the absurdly slow pace.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>boboo:
</TD><TD>Q: Is Curlin a false favorite? or is he a super-freak?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>That will be the subject of my column in Thursday's Post/Friday's DRF. I think he'll be a false favorite. We know that he doesn't have the necessary seasoning, and I believe in all of those historical yardsticks that a lot of people dismiss. I would be more hesitant to take a stand against him if he'd run a giant figure in the Arkansas Derby, but his 103 doesn't give him enough of an edge to suggest he can overcome that lack of experience.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>3Dee:
</TD><TD>Q: Does Scat Daddy's lack of a triple fig. Beyer concern you?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Yes it does. And the same can be said for Nobiz. If these were the old days, before people had reference to speed figures, you'd look at these horses' records and say they look great; they've won the big stakes at both 2 and 3. But figures in the high 90s don't usually make you a bonafide Derby contender.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Bob_from_Calif:
</TD><TD>Q: Andy, I would love to know your thoughts on Any Given Saturday. Personally I feel he has the breeding, trainer, Jockey, positional speed and class to be right there. Of course anything can happen so I will be playing him to Great Hunter, Street Sense.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>His race against Street Sense was very good, and makes him a solid contender, in my book. I'm going to be a little hesitant about playing any of the Pletchers, though, because of his mediocre record in the Derby.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Winooski_Tip:
</TD><TD>Q: Many people like Tiago...however, he finished the last f in :13...your thoughts? I think he may be a underlay...
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I can't like any horse related to Giacomo. Also, the history books are very much against any horse with only 4 career starts.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>CHICKENDINNER:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you think there are any health concerns with Circular Quay? An eight week layoff seems out of the ordinary for an upper echelon type horse on the Derby trail.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Pletcher says this is what he wants to do, and though I'm usually skeptical of trainers' comments in situations like this, I believe him. He says he prefers to give horses plenty of time between races as a general rule, so he's doing it here. My feeling is that Pletcher is searching for the right style of preparation to win the Derby (just as his mentor Wayne Lukas searched.) With five horses in the field this year, he can afford to try something wildly unorthodox with one of them.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Mr__E:
</TD><TD>Q: I'm probably going to play against the deep closers Dominican and Zanjero. Their speed figs worry me and I don't think the pace will be hot enough for them to knock off horses like Giacomo did two years ago. What are your thoughts on these two?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Zanjero is too weak, figure-wise--with a lifetime best of 93. Dominican--I don't know. He looks like a Polytrack specialist, but he did outkick Street Sense in the final yards of the Blue Grass. If he's a big, big price I might include him in my supers.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>SJS:
</TD><TD>Q: Andy, is Street Sense going to finally break the BCJ jinx?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Definitely he can. I don't really believe in this jinx. Unlike some of the other historical guidelines that are important, I think the failure of BCJ winners to win the Derby is a fluke. Plenty of horses have run well in both races--they just haven't won both. It's time for somebody to do it.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>slim:
</TD><TD>Q: Mr. Beyer, which of Pletcher's horses do you consider to have the best shot at winning the Derby this year?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I would rate Any Given Saturday a narrow No. 1 over Scat Daddy in the Pletcher lineup. Even though Circular Quay's win at FG was visually impressive and the fig was OK, I can't take him off that long layoff.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>vjcisme:
</TD><TD>Q: what do you think about the fast work of hard spun?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>It doesn't make any sense to me, but neither does anything else the trainer has done this spring. I never understood all of his vacillation about running in the Derby. Hard Spun has the talent and should have been kept on a steady course to the Derby. But it's hard for me to like him with this management.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>SAL:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you think Stormello can make the distance if Kent D. can harness his speed?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>No. It's pretty tough to harness anybody's speed the way the Derby is usually run.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>AtomSmasher:
</TD><TD>Q: Andy, how much importance do you give the Derby horses most recent Beyers? In '99 the best last Beyers ran 1-2 and the EX paid almost $800.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I keep telling myself I should be more slavish to them--I still can't believe that I overlooked War Emblem when he won with the top fig at 20 to 1. In the last decade we've seen how important the figures are in the Derby. Horses coming into the race off a fig of 108+ have done tremendously well, and often get overlooked at the windows. But this year I can't touch the best last-race fig, because it belongs to Curlin.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>bigshu:
</TD><TD>Q: Will you be using Cowtown Cat in the exotics?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Only if I can find a trifecta on the last three finishers. He is my number-one hate in the race. When he won the Illinois Derby, he got the lead in a moderate pace on a strongly rail-favoring track at Hawthorne. The time before that he gook advantage of a similar inside bias on the inner dirt at Aqueduct. He's a bum.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Jimmy_California:
</TD><TD>Q: How should we treat speed figures for performances on the polytrack (i.e. such as from the Bluegrass)?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>dreamer:
</TD><TD>Q: Can Great Hunter win without an exceptionally fast pace and at what odds would you consider him a good value play?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I'm not sure what to make of him. I thought he was being outkicked when he got into that trouble at Keeneland--and he is a horse who had previously shown he likes Polytrack. His last dirt number, at Santa Anita, was good enough that you have to consider him a contender, though. I'd consider 10-1 or 12-1 the right price for him, I guess.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>3Dee_2:
</TD><TD>Q: Who do you feel will definitely not get the distance
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I think it's pretty obvious (to everybody but the trainer) that Teuflesberg won't be able to go 1 1/4 miles. He's never passed a horse in the stretch, and he's never won beyond a mile.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>clancy:
</TD><TD>Q: does Liquidity have any chance of fininishing in the money at about 50-1 ???
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I can't like him. I don't understand why Doug O'Neill has kept him on the Derby track after his last 2 bad races. But he does show a figure of 102 at 1 1/8 miles, so that might be a basis for throwing him in at a huge price.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>LarVato:
</TD><TD>Q: Post position will help determines this year derby with so many horses so close, which PP will be a death sentence? 17-20 or 1-3
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>All the trainers now seem to have succumbed to a mass delusion that inside posts are death and outside posts are desirable. But I'd always want my horse to have an inside post. Yes, you might get caught in traffic there, but horses breaking from the outside are assured of losing ground. Moreover, the jockeys who break from far-outside posts usually have to hustle just to get position, and sometimes that hustling doesn't help a horse--remember Point Given's trip?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Winooski_Tip:
</TD><TD>Q: Can any justification e given to Sam P?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>My friend Andy Serling thought he had a tough trip in his last and will be an overlay on Saturday. I don't think I agree that the trip was so notable. But like so many of the others, Sam P. has run a figure (his 99 at Santa Anita) that puts him close to everybody else.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Sir_Ralston:
</TD><TD>Q: Last year we had Steppenwolfer & Jazil as bonafide deep closers, do we have any this year?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I don't think there are any horses that slow in the early going. Circular Quay has been running from far back in his recent starts, but he was quick enough to win at 5 1/2 and 6 furlongs last year.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>charlie_horse:
</TD><TD>Q: How important is the two year old foundation for derby success?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>This is a key component in my upcoming column on Curlin. It is essential. In no other race would you be concerned about what a horse did a year earlier; but the Derby is so demanding that you can't cram sufficient preparation into a few months. It's a huge plus if a horse has won at a mile or more at 2, but at the minimum it is essential that he has raced once or twice as a 2-year-old. The stat that says nobody has won since 1882 without racing at 2 is not a fluke.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>BG:
</TD><TD>Q: FROM BG: Andy, what do you think of Nobiz Like Showbiz's chances to win the Derby?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Everything about him looks good except his figures. He's got the 2-year-old foundation; he's got an outstanding trainer in Barclay Tagg. But he still hasn't run a number. When Funny Cide won the Derby, you'll remember, he tipped his readiness by running a figure of 110 (as I recall) in the Wood. I was looking for something like that from Nobiz--not a 98.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Unitas:
</TD><TD>Q: Why the seemingly widespread disrespect for Scat Daddy? His times aren't exceedingly fast, yet he continues to win...Will the distance be his achilles?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I don't know that he's necessarily been disrespected. His wins in Florida were OK, but he didn't blow anybody away.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>the_squire:
</TD><TD>Q: Given the sameness of this year's field speed-wise, would you say there should be more of an emphasis on pedigree/Tomlinson ratings when handicapping the Derby than in years past? If so, who do you see as the best to get the distance?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>DC:
</TD><TD>Q: You site historical reasons for lightly raced colts not winning the Derby- what about the historical rule of 3 or 4 three year old prep races ? Not 2 or 5 prep race. Street Sense,Circular Quay, Great Hunter, Stormella,Dominican have only 2 prep races like
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Well, training styles are changing and good horsemen are giving their horses lighter and lighter preparation. Barbaro upset the rule that horse need a prep race within four weeks of the Derby. So I think it's more important to ask if a horse has sufficient overall preparation rather than whether he qualifies under a specific rule. Street Sense, Circular Quay and Greater Hunter have all certainly done enough to be fit on Saturday.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>TOYMAN:
</TD><TD>Q: Would you consider AGSs performance in the Wood as a bounce?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I don't really believe in" bounces" most of the time. But I'd nevertheless be willing to forgive him for that sub-par performance. I suspect that Pletcher will have him revved up to run back to the level of his Tampa Bay race.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>55555:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you think Street Sense's last race took too much out of him coming into the Derby?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>No--he only exerted himself in the last quarter mile. The same can be said for all the other horses.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>ash3sue6:
</TD><TD>Q: can you conclude whichever jhonny velazquez opts to ride is todds best horse
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Jockeys are so often wrong when they make these decisions that I wouldn't let his choice sway me a bit. I think it would be very hard for him, Pletcher or any handicapper to say whether Circular Quay, Scat Daddy or Any Given Saturday is the best horse.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>HDembski:
</TD><TD>Q: How bout a live Bomb in Sedgefield? We already know he can get the distance being Kin to English channel. Most recently sharpened up on turf now returns to dirt. what do you think?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I don't kow what he's doing in the race. He seems to be a turf specialist who can also handle Polytrack. This is a bizarre spot to be testing him on the dirt for the first time.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>ctrentman:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you think Stormello will rebound after the Florida Derby performance
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>I don't think he can rebound enough to get the 1 1/4 mile distance.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Andy_Beyer:
</TD><TD>Thanks, everybody, for joining us tonight. My final picks will be in the Friday Wash Post and the Saturday DRF. Have a great Derby!
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Derby Chat with Dan Illman
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
<TABLE><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>boboo:
</TD><TD>Q: Can Curlin overcome both inexperience and the inside draw?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>He does have a ton of history to overcome, but he's been spectacular in his three races thus far, and it's possible that we haven't seen his best yet. The inside post is tough, but he does have tactical speed, and he should be in the mix going into the first turn. I've never really followed all of these "jinxes." The three lifetime race theory doesn't hold much water to me. Regret was the last Derby winner with three races...
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>but there haven't been many Derby starters with three lifetime starts so the sample size isn't that big. The "no juvenile experience" is a big hurdle, but let's say he started once at two, and tossed his jockey one stride out of the gate. He'd have technically "started" at two, right? I think he's one of the best horses in the race, and think he's going to be very tough on Saturday.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Belmont_Bud:
</TD><TD>Q: I'm in love with Circular Quay how much do you think the 8 week layoff will hurt?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I think you have to trust Pletcher on this one as he certainly knows what he's doing. The long layoff isn't what bothers me about Circular Quay, it's that he hasn't started at 1 1/8 miles that worries me. My advice would be to keep an eye on Pletcher's Rags to Riches in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She'll be coming off a similar layoff, and has been working in company with Circular Quay. If she runs a big one in the Oaks, I'll feel better about Circular Quay.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I, of course, meant the Kentucky Oaks (grin)
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>boboo:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, who do you think was most helped by the post position draw? Who was most hurt?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>The connections of Street Sense, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy, and Hard Spun should be thrilled. Asmussen can't be too happy about Curlin's post, and Great Hunter, Any Given Saturday, and Stormello are going to have to work very hard from their outside posts.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>boboo:
</TD><TD>Q: The top contenders seem evenly matched on paper. Who do you think will improve the most on Saturday?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I think that Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy have tremendous room for improvement. Both have shown tons of natural ability, but their speed figures aren't quite there yet. It's possible that Nobiz Like Shobiz is just starting to grow into that massive body. Once he totally figures this game out (and it may be on Saturday), he'll be a force. Scat Daddy is a win machine, and he reminds me of Silver Charm in that he wants to beat you in a dogfight. They have plenty of room to improve on speed figures.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>CONCERNED:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan,your thoughts on the pace of the derby..slow,honest or fast?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I think it will be honest, but not blistering. If I had to predict how things are going to shake out, I'd assume that Stormello (despite his trainer's assertions that he won't send) will go to the front with Sam P., and Teuflesberg chasing...
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Curlin has no choice but to go from his inside post so he'll be among the early leaders as wel as Cowtown Cat. I think that Nobiz Like Shobiz and Hard Spun will also be close. In the next flight will be the confirmed stalkers like Scat Daddy, and Any Given Satruday. Street Sense, Great Hunter, Tiago, and Circular Quay should be near the rear of the field.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>DecentHunter:
</TD><TD>Q: How fast will Teuflesberg/Liquidity/the pacesetter run the half mile?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I'm guessing the half-mile will be posted in 46 and change. Again, not too fast, but certainly honest. I wonder if Liquidity will be sent without the blinkers.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Bensell:
</TD><TD>Q: What are your thoughts on Any Given Saturday?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>coach:
</TD><TD>Q: what is your take on Dominican in this field
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Again, here's a horse that presents more questions than answers. Is his recent improvement because of being gelded, or is he simply a Polytrack freak? I'm going to say it's a little of both. He's an improving horse, but he only has two preps, and they really didn't run until the last 3/8ths of a mile in the Bluegrass. I wonder if he has enough preparation. I'm going to play against him, and hope he doesn't bite me.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Erik:
</TD><TD>Q: What (if any) knocks on Street Sense?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>If you believe in jinxes (I don't), then you have the entire BC Juvenile - Derby hex. I'm more concerned that he only has two preps this year. His Tampa Bay Derby race was a good, hard race for him, but again, they didn't start running until the stretch of the Bluegrass. Some trip handicappers will also note that he got a dream run in both the Breeders' Cup and the Tampa Bay Derby. What happens if he has to go around and through 19 horses?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>HARDSPUNby20:
</TD><TD>Q: Hi Dan was Hardspuns workout to fast ? how do you rate his chances ?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I do think it was too fast, but I'm not going to completely panic. After looking at the past 11 Derby winners, I found that six of them had fast bullet works for their final preparation for the Derby...
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Barbaro went a bullet 4f in 46...Giacomo worked 6f in 1:11.40, Smarty Jones worked 5f in 58, and Funny Cide worked 5 furlongs in 58.43 so the last 4 Derby winners had bullet workouts before the Derby. It was fast, but he is a quality horse, and I'm not going to toss him based on one work.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>handyzapper:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, was Tiago's run in the SA derby as solid as it looks or was it artificial?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I think it wasn't a very strong race on paper. It looked like King of the Roxy was home free in midstretch before his distance limitations, and Sam P. and Liquidity were very disappointing. That being said, Tiago is moving forward at the right time. Shireffs is working him exactly the same way he prepped big brother Giacomo. The Santa Anita Derby didn't impress me visually, but it got a good number. He's an interesting horse, but may be somewhat of a "wiseguy" play. I'll try to beat him.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>handyzapper:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, which of the prep races holds keys in your opinion?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>From a visual standpoint, the Arkansas Derby was the most impressive. It's true that Curlin didn't beat the strongest runners that day, but the way he did it was breathtaking. The Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby were both solid as well. Scat Daddy simply refused to lose the former, and was very good in the Florida Derby. Visually, I like the Arkansas Derby, then the main Florida preps followed by Nobiz Like Shobiz's game performance in the Wood.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Rail:
</TD><TD>Q: Have any of the contenders failed to impress you in their final preparations?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I think Cowtown Cat is a cool little horse, but he rode an inside, speed-favoring track in the Illinois Derby. Hard Spun was a little late to change leads in the Lane's End. Liquidity just didn't fire in a poor performance in the Santa Anita Derby, and Sam P. was under the whip 3 furlongs from the wire in that race. Teuflesberg blew an easy lead, and was drifting out badly at the wire of the Blue Grass. Those horses didn't impress me visually. Now go box 'em (grin)
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>parimutual:
</TD><TD>Q: I know it's the Kentucky Derby Chat but the Oaks deserves some space also with a potential superstar in Rags to Riches. Can any other filly look her in the eye and beat her? I don't see a Lemons Forever finish this year.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Rags to Riches is a beast, but the layoff does worry me a little bit (see Circular Quay). I've always had a soft spot for Mistical Plan although the post doesn't do her any favors. Also, watch out for Cash Included as a potential bomb with blinkers added. I'd use those three in my Oaks/Derby double.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>whiteoakgin:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan- using High Heels and Swift Temper in my Oaks DD with Street Sense, Nobiz, and Hard Spun-would you loan me money for this wager?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Neither a borrower nor a lender be. So I can't help you out there. I've never really been a big High Heels fan. She was good beating Cash Included and Cotton Blossom at Oaklawn, but I want to see her do it again. As for Swift Temper, well, good luck.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>jackal07:
</TD><TD>Q: i know you are a good two year old guy...so which of the derby contenders would you say have progressed the best from last year till now?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Dominican has really improved. It may be Polytrack, and it may be because he was gelded, but I didn't think he'd be this good. Also, Cowtown Cat's debut at Saratoga wasn't good, and I never dreamed he'd be in the Derby (seven figure price and all). Tiago is a late-bloomer as well as Zanjero and I think that Stormello (despite being 0-2 this year) has improved.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>vinnieroe:
</TD><TD>Q: Lauren Stich says that many of the horses have strong 1-1/4 pedigree. Why don't they have stronger speed figures?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>It could be many reasons. Perhaps it's because long-winded horses not only improve with additional distance, but with maturity as well. These horses are still young, and they may not have hit their physical and emotional peak yet. In years past, we've seen precocious horses run big numbers going into the Derby only to fizzle out. Perhaps this crop will improve as the year goes on (starting with a big performance on the first Saturday in May).
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Or, they could just be slow.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>POPGUY:
</TD><TD>Q: Nary a word is said about Storm in May or Bwana Bull...for good reason?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>For very good reason. Bwana Bull was scheduled to run in the Derby Trial last week, but supposedly scraped himself up on the flight from Northern California, was on antibiotics, and wasn't ready for the race. Since he was here, and had the earnings, the owners decided to take a shot. He hasn't shown that he's fast enough to win. Storm in May is a weird horse in that he likes grass, and is a pretty decent sprinter. I'm not sure he wants to go this far, however.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Ralph:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, we have all heard how great Street Sense has looked in the morning workouts. Who else has looked good and may be sitting on a big race on Saturday.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Scat Daddy has supposedly been very, very good in his morning trials. He's been working in bar shoes, but Pletcher says he always works in them. Curlin is also working well, and Nobiz Like Shobiz seems to be on edge for a good performance.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>GreyGhost:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you think Great Hunter has any chance, seeing as how only one horse has won from the 20 spot?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>He has a chance because he's more of a closer, and will be taken back anyway. Theoretically, he shouldn't lose too much ground going wide into the first turn. Whether he can pass 19 or 20 horses off only two prep races is another story. I'm going to try and beat him.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>kelso_2:
</TD><TD>Q: Nobiz Like Shobiz seems to have everything going for him except for a requisite Beyer figure as a 3YO, though his BRIS numbers have been decent. Do you think that his relatively low Beyer is less of a factor this year?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I think so. No one has really run that huge Beyer (remember Bellamy Road's Wood Memorial a couple of years ago) so it's a pretty even playing field. I'm not worried too much about his Beyers. He is a quality horse, and if he relaxes when they pass the stands the first time, he'll be a tough customer.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>joe_joe:
</TD><TD>Q: What do you think of Teuflesberg?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I have a tremendous amount of respect for the horse because he dances every dance, no matter the distance or class of the race. Racing needs more horses like that. He has good speed, but the distance and pace scenario are going to work against him. I prefer others.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>longshot_louie:
</TD><TD>Q: Can Liquidity have an impact on this race? Could he surprise like Charistmatic was able to do at long odds?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I've been waiting for that big race from Liquidity for a long time, and I'm through waiting. I liked him in the Louisiana Derby, and he folded badly when they turned for home. He looked like a winner going into the turn of the Santa Anita Derby, then fizzled out. Maybe the blinkers will help him, but he's broken my heart one too many times. I can't see it.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>BoKnows:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, can you help me decide between 3 Pletcher horses to bet: circular Q, Scat D, or Any GS?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I prefer Scat Daddy. He's a real bulldog, he knows how to win, and he's been training really well. He has the tactical speed to sit off the pace, and should be pouncing on the leaders going into the final turn. Circular Quay would be second on my list although I'm worried about the lack of a 9 furlong prep. Any Given Saturday has the talent, but does he really want it like Scat Daddy does?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>coldstoli:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan do you think Borel will try to find a seam on the rail for Street Sense? He likes to ride that way and the workout reports I've read say he's a real rail hugger
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>If I'm one of the Derby jockeys, the last thing I want is to let Borel have the rail...again. I think that Borel is going to try and save as much ground as he can...the shortest distance between two points and all...but I would be shocked if the other jocks don't let him earn it by going wide.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>kjerod_70:
</TD><TD>Q: If the derby falls apart late, like I think it will, how do you like the chances of Zanjero?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>He does have that Giacomo thing going for him, doesn't he? A stone closer without a lot of wins on his record. I really wanted to see him finish stronger in the Blue Grass as he had the run of the rail all the way around. Perhaps the inside wasn't the place to be, and the early pace was glacial. He's not the worst longshot in the world, but I'm probably going to pass him.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>cardmania:
</TD><TD>Q: Why is Cowtown Cat getting no respect?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>He's had good trips in his last two races, and he took the path of least resistance to get here. The Gotham and Illinois Derby were both weak preps, and he had candy trips in both. I like that he's versatile, but this may be a bit much.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>steinlen_s_daddy:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, Which of the Derby contenders do you think brings the best pedigree to the race?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Artax_106:
</TD><TD>Q: Which longshot has the best chance of upsetting?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>For longshots, I like Stormello and Hard Spun. I liked Stormello's Fountain of Youth, and that workout is going to scare people off Hard Spun. Not my top picks, but longshots to consider.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>boboo:
</TD><TD>Q: What type of wager offers the most bang for the buck on the Derby for those with a moderate bankroll?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Last year's favorite went off at something like 5 1/2 to 1, and while that kind of price may not be in attendance on Derby day, you usually can find value in the win pools. For a moderate bankroll, I'd play a strong opinion to win, and maybe fool around with the Oaks/Derby double.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>CHICKENDINNER:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, who is your top four? No offense but you talked me onto SNS last year and I need to know who to throw out!
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Sorry about that. Let's give you four to throw out. I like Curlin, Hard Spun, Nobiz Like Shobiz, and Scat Daddy. Now, go throw 'em out.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Thanks a lot for coming out tonight everybody. t's much appreciated. Enjoy the Derby!
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Wednesday, May 2, 2007
<TABLE><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>boboo:
</TD><TD>Q: Can Curlin overcome both inexperience and the inside draw?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>He does have a ton of history to overcome, but he's been spectacular in his three races thus far, and it's possible that we haven't seen his best yet. The inside post is tough, but he does have tactical speed, and he should be in the mix going into the first turn. I've never really followed all of these "jinxes." The three lifetime race theory doesn't hold much water to me. Regret was the last Derby winner with three races...
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>but there haven't been many Derby starters with three lifetime starts so the sample size isn't that big. The "no juvenile experience" is a big hurdle, but let's say he started once at two, and tossed his jockey one stride out of the gate. He'd have technically "started" at two, right? I think he's one of the best horses in the race, and think he's going to be very tough on Saturday.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Belmont_Bud:
</TD><TD>Q: I'm in love with Circular Quay how much do you think the 8 week layoff will hurt?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I think you have to trust Pletcher on this one as he certainly knows what he's doing. The long layoff isn't what bothers me about Circular Quay, it's that he hasn't started at 1 1/8 miles that worries me. My advice would be to keep an eye on Pletcher's Rags to Riches in the Fair Grounds Oaks. She'll be coming off a similar layoff, and has been working in company with Circular Quay. If she runs a big one in the Oaks, I'll feel better about Circular Quay.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I, of course, meant the Kentucky Oaks (grin)
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>boboo:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, who do you think was most helped by the post position draw? Who was most hurt?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>The connections of Street Sense, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Scat Daddy, and Hard Spun should be thrilled. Asmussen can't be too happy about Curlin's post, and Great Hunter, Any Given Saturday, and Stormello are going to have to work very hard from their outside posts.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>boboo:
</TD><TD>Q: The top contenders seem evenly matched on paper. Who do you think will improve the most on Saturday?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I think that Nobiz Like Shobiz and Scat Daddy have tremendous room for improvement. Both have shown tons of natural ability, but their speed figures aren't quite there yet. It's possible that Nobiz Like Shobiz is just starting to grow into that massive body. Once he totally figures this game out (and it may be on Saturday), he'll be a force. Scat Daddy is a win machine, and he reminds me of Silver Charm in that he wants to beat you in a dogfight. They have plenty of room to improve on speed figures.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>CONCERNED:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan,your thoughts on the pace of the derby..slow,honest or fast?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I think it will be honest, but not blistering. If I had to predict how things are going to shake out, I'd assume that Stormello (despite his trainer's assertions that he won't send) will go to the front with Sam P., and Teuflesberg chasing...
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Curlin has no choice but to go from his inside post so he'll be among the early leaders as wel as Cowtown Cat. I think that Nobiz Like Shobiz and Hard Spun will also be close. In the next flight will be the confirmed stalkers like Scat Daddy, and Any Given Satruday. Street Sense, Great Hunter, Tiago, and Circular Quay should be near the rear of the field.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>DecentHunter:
</TD><TD>Q: How fast will Teuflesberg/Liquidity/the pacesetter run the half mile?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I'm guessing the half-mile will be posted in 46 and change. Again, not too fast, but certainly honest. I wonder if Liquidity will be sent without the blinkers.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Bensell:
</TD><TD>Q: What are your thoughts on Any Given Saturday?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>coach:
</TD><TD>Q: what is your take on Dominican in this field
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Again, here's a horse that presents more questions than answers. Is his recent improvement because of being gelded, or is he simply a Polytrack freak? I'm going to say it's a little of both. He's an improving horse, but he only has two preps, and they really didn't run until the last 3/8ths of a mile in the Bluegrass. I wonder if he has enough preparation. I'm going to play against him, and hope he doesn't bite me.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Erik:
</TD><TD>Q: What (if any) knocks on Street Sense?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>If you believe in jinxes (I don't), then you have the entire BC Juvenile - Derby hex. I'm more concerned that he only has two preps this year. His Tampa Bay Derby race was a good, hard race for him, but again, they didn't start running until the stretch of the Bluegrass. Some trip handicappers will also note that he got a dream run in both the Breeders' Cup and the Tampa Bay Derby. What happens if he has to go around and through 19 horses?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>HARDSPUNby20:
</TD><TD>Q: Hi Dan was Hardspuns workout to fast ? how do you rate his chances ?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I do think it was too fast, but I'm not going to completely panic. After looking at the past 11 Derby winners, I found that six of them had fast bullet works for their final preparation for the Derby...
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Barbaro went a bullet 4f in 46...Giacomo worked 6f in 1:11.40, Smarty Jones worked 5f in 58, and Funny Cide worked 5 furlongs in 58.43 so the last 4 Derby winners had bullet workouts before the Derby. It was fast, but he is a quality horse, and I'm not going to toss him based on one work.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>handyzapper:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, was Tiago's run in the SA derby as solid as it looks or was it artificial?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I think it wasn't a very strong race on paper. It looked like King of the Roxy was home free in midstretch before his distance limitations, and Sam P. and Liquidity were very disappointing. That being said, Tiago is moving forward at the right time. Shireffs is working him exactly the same way he prepped big brother Giacomo. The Santa Anita Derby didn't impress me visually, but it got a good number. He's an interesting horse, but may be somewhat of a "wiseguy" play. I'll try to beat him.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>handyzapper:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, which of the prep races holds keys in your opinion?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>From a visual standpoint, the Arkansas Derby was the most impressive. It's true that Curlin didn't beat the strongest runners that day, but the way he did it was breathtaking. The Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby were both solid as well. Scat Daddy simply refused to lose the former, and was very good in the Florida Derby. Visually, I like the Arkansas Derby, then the main Florida preps followed by Nobiz Like Shobiz's game performance in the Wood.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Rail:
</TD><TD>Q: Have any of the contenders failed to impress you in their final preparations?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I think Cowtown Cat is a cool little horse, but he rode an inside, speed-favoring track in the Illinois Derby. Hard Spun was a little late to change leads in the Lane's End. Liquidity just didn't fire in a poor performance in the Santa Anita Derby, and Sam P. was under the whip 3 furlongs from the wire in that race. Teuflesberg blew an easy lead, and was drifting out badly at the wire of the Blue Grass. Those horses didn't impress me visually. Now go box 'em (grin)
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>parimutual:
</TD><TD>Q: I know it's the Kentucky Derby Chat but the Oaks deserves some space also with a potential superstar in Rags to Riches. Can any other filly look her in the eye and beat her? I don't see a Lemons Forever finish this year.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Rags to Riches is a beast, but the layoff does worry me a little bit (see Circular Quay). I've always had a soft spot for Mistical Plan although the post doesn't do her any favors. Also, watch out for Cash Included as a potential bomb with blinkers added. I'd use those three in my Oaks/Derby double.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>whiteoakgin:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan- using High Heels and Swift Temper in my Oaks DD with Street Sense, Nobiz, and Hard Spun-would you loan me money for this wager?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Neither a borrower nor a lender be. So I can't help you out there. I've never really been a big High Heels fan. She was good beating Cash Included and Cotton Blossom at Oaklawn, but I want to see her do it again. As for Swift Temper, well, good luck.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>jackal07:
</TD><TD>Q: i know you are a good two year old guy...so which of the derby contenders would you say have progressed the best from last year till now?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Dominican has really improved. It may be Polytrack, and it may be because he was gelded, but I didn't think he'd be this good. Also, Cowtown Cat's debut at Saratoga wasn't good, and I never dreamed he'd be in the Derby (seven figure price and all). Tiago is a late-bloomer as well as Zanjero and I think that Stormello (despite being 0-2 this year) has improved.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>vinnieroe:
</TD><TD>Q: Lauren Stich says that many of the horses have strong 1-1/4 pedigree. Why don't they have stronger speed figures?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>It could be many reasons. Perhaps it's because long-winded horses not only improve with additional distance, but with maturity as well. These horses are still young, and they may not have hit their physical and emotional peak yet. In years past, we've seen precocious horses run big numbers going into the Derby only to fizzle out. Perhaps this crop will improve as the year goes on (starting with a big performance on the first Saturday in May).
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Or, they could just be slow.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>POPGUY:
</TD><TD>Q: Nary a word is said about Storm in May or Bwana Bull...for good reason?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>For very good reason. Bwana Bull was scheduled to run in the Derby Trial last week, but supposedly scraped himself up on the flight from Northern California, was on antibiotics, and wasn't ready for the race. Since he was here, and had the earnings, the owners decided to take a shot. He hasn't shown that he's fast enough to win. Storm in May is a weird horse in that he likes grass, and is a pretty decent sprinter. I'm not sure he wants to go this far, however.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Ralph:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, we have all heard how great Street Sense has looked in the morning workouts. Who else has looked good and may be sitting on a big race on Saturday.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Scat Daddy has supposedly been very, very good in his morning trials. He's been working in bar shoes, but Pletcher says he always works in them. Curlin is also working well, and Nobiz Like Shobiz seems to be on edge for a good performance.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>GreyGhost:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you think Great Hunter has any chance, seeing as how only one horse has won from the 20 spot?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>He has a chance because he's more of a closer, and will be taken back anyway. Theoretically, he shouldn't lose too much ground going wide into the first turn. Whether he can pass 19 or 20 horses off only two prep races is another story. I'm going to try and beat him.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>kelso_2:
</TD><TD>Q: Nobiz Like Shobiz seems to have everything going for him except for a requisite Beyer figure as a 3YO, though his BRIS numbers have been decent. Do you think that his relatively low Beyer is less of a factor this year?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I think so. No one has really run that huge Beyer (remember Bellamy Road's Wood Memorial a couple of years ago) so it's a pretty even playing field. I'm not worried too much about his Beyers. He is a quality horse, and if he relaxes when they pass the stands the first time, he'll be a tough customer.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>joe_joe:
</TD><TD>Q: What do you think of Teuflesberg?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I have a tremendous amount of respect for the horse because he dances every dance, no matter the distance or class of the race. Racing needs more horses like that. He has good speed, but the distance and pace scenario are going to work against him. I prefer others.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>longshot_louie:
</TD><TD>Q: Can Liquidity have an impact on this race? Could he surprise like Charistmatic was able to do at long odds?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I've been waiting for that big race from Liquidity for a long time, and I'm through waiting. I liked him in the Louisiana Derby, and he folded badly when they turned for home. He looked like a winner going into the turn of the Santa Anita Derby, then fizzled out. Maybe the blinkers will help him, but he's broken my heart one too many times. I can't see it.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>BoKnows:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, can you help me decide between 3 Pletcher horses to bet: circular Q, Scat D, or Any GS?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>I prefer Scat Daddy. He's a real bulldog, he knows how to win, and he's been training really well. He has the tactical speed to sit off the pace, and should be pouncing on the leaders going into the final turn. Circular Quay would be second on my list although I'm worried about the lack of a 9 furlong prep. Any Given Saturday has the talent, but does he really want it like Scat Daddy does?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>coldstoli:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan do you think Borel will try to find a seam on the rail for Street Sense? He likes to ride that way and the workout reports I've read say he's a real rail hugger
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>If I'm one of the Derby jockeys, the last thing I want is to let Borel have the rail...again. I think that Borel is going to try and save as much ground as he can...the shortest distance between two points and all...but I would be shocked if the other jocks don't let him earn it by going wide.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>kjerod_70:
</TD><TD>Q: If the derby falls apart late, like I think it will, how do you like the chances of Zanjero?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>He does have that Giacomo thing going for him, doesn't he? A stone closer without a lot of wins on his record. I really wanted to see him finish stronger in the Blue Grass as he had the run of the rail all the way around. Perhaps the inside wasn't the place to be, and the early pace was glacial. He's not the worst longshot in the world, but I'm probably going to pass him.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>cardmania:
</TD><TD>Q: Why is Cowtown Cat getting no respect?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>He's had good trips in his last two races, and he took the path of least resistance to get here. The Gotham and Illinois Derby were both weak preps, and he had candy trips in both. I like that he's versatile, but this may be a bit much.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>steinlen_s_daddy:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, Which of the Derby contenders do you think brings the best pedigree to the race?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Artax_106:
</TD><TD>Q: Which longshot has the best chance of upsetting?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>For longshots, I like Stormello and Hard Spun. I liked Stormello's Fountain of Youth, and that workout is going to scare people off Hard Spun. Not my top picks, but longshots to consider.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>boboo:
</TD><TD>Q: What type of wager offers the most bang for the buck on the Derby for those with a moderate bankroll?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Last year's favorite went off at something like 5 1/2 to 1, and while that kind of price may not be in attendance on Derby day, you usually can find value in the win pools. For a moderate bankroll, I'd play a strong opinion to win, and maybe fool around with the Oaks/Derby double.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>CHICKENDINNER:
</TD><TD>Q: Dan, who is your top four? No offense but you talked me onto SNS last year and I need to know who to throw out!
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Sorry about that. Let's give you four to throw out. I like Curlin, Hard Spun, Nobiz Like Shobiz, and Scat Daddy. Now, go throw 'em out.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dan_Illman:
</TD><TD>Thanks a lot for coming out tonight everybody. t's much appreciated. Enjoy the Derby!
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Derby Chat with Steven Crist
Thursday, May 3, 2007
<TABLE><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Greeting all! Let's talk Derby ...
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Ianv:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, it seems handicapper either love Curlin chances or dismiss him out of hand. What say you?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>That's understandable...
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>He's a wonderfully talented horse who faces a huge challenge here. I'd take a flyer on him at 12-1 but as the 7-2 favorite I want no part of him
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Djarum:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, Dominican beat Street Sense once, why can't he beat him again?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>He's one of the few 20-1+ shots I give a chance to....People dismiss him as a Poly-only horse, and that's possible but it's also possible he really improved after being grlded over the winter.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>grlded=gelded
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Jackson_White:
</TD><TD>Q: Beyer called Cowtown Cat a bum, I don't see him in the exacta but will use in 3-4 slots. Your opinion on CC?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>It's hard for me to like him over two perfect-setup races where he earned low winning figures but I suppose he could be fourth if you stretch it.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Woofer:
</TD><TD>Q: Evening Steve, great competitive field, no? Tiago's manuevering in the SA Derby looked superb. Can he win the Roses, though
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Tiago has come a long way for a horse with only four starts and I like him more than I liked his half-brother Giacomo. Still, he's stepping way up in terms of the quality of horse he's meeting. I think he's a very live underneath horse for tris and supers.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Buzz_Man_on_Campus:
</TD><TD>Q: I loved Exotic Betting, great book, in that vain Hard Spun= A,B,C or X?? I have him an X but could move up.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>IThanks...I also have him as an x but he hasn't done a lot wrong. I thought there'd be more of a buzz and him and he'd be a toss for me at 10-1 but 20 I wouldn't want to get beat by him for third.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>plodder17:
</TD><TD>Q: Steven - What is your take on the low Beyer speed figures for the field?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>It's an indisputable fact that they're unusually and consistently low this year. In part this could be because everyone is less developed and has fewer starts than usual, and everyone seems to be training them to peak for now. But the major preps were ALL slower than par this year.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Jimmy_California:
</TD><TD>Q: Steven, between all the typical biases--not racing as a 2 year-old, a 5-week plus layoff, less than 3 preps--you can pretty much eliminate most of the contenders, save Nobiz and Scat Daddy. Which "bias" do you think as the least impact?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I think that to continue to insist a horse have three preps is probably unreasonable. Barbaro's first of three preps was on January 1. Would he have lost the Derby if he'd raced on 12/31/05 instead of 1/1/06? Of course not. Training has changed so dramatically that some old rules should be tossed.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Jimmy_California:
</TD><TD>Q: Steven, I know it was Polytrack, but Street Sense just lost to potential 20-1 shot Dominican and wasn't much better than potential 40-1 shots Zanjero and Teufelsberg...what do you make of Sense's effort in the Blue Grass?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>The race was run so strangely that I wouldn't micro-analyze it. I also don;t think he was trained to be 100 percent for that race. It was a step to get to where I hope he'll be Saturday.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>wowow888:
</TD><TD>Q: what do you think of Sam P.? He is the only Pletcher's horse that trained on CD.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>He was too close to the pace in the SA Derby but I still just see him as being a cut below the top flight in here.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>SJS:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, I'm liking Dominican and Great Hunter a little less after the post selection. How much influence does post position have on your betting of the Derby?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I think post is vastly overrated, and only because you have 1000 reporters here on Wednesday with nothing else to write about. Good horses overcome bad draws.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Br00klynAJ:
</TD><TD>Q: Hi Steven. Nobiz' final 8ths have been a bit slow. He came home faster n tihe Remsen over the same surface. Am I wrong to think he's got enough in him to step forward?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I hope you're not wrong because I've always liked him and he's my second pick in the race. I think we haven't seen the best of him and that he has room to improve after starting out at a very high level. I also like that he can make his own trip and avoid looping 15 of them.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Mitch:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, How concerned are you about Circular Quay's layoff? Is he a toss?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Well, he's my THIRD pick so he's not a toss with me. I think the layoff would be more of a concernb with a speed horse or presser. With a one-run closer, I don;t care as much. Similarly, you see grass hoprses win long rcaes off long layoffs more than on dirt because they're kicking in late.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>detroitd:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, it looked like Great Hunter got blocked down the lane in the Blue Grass, how do u like his chances Sat.?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I think he was finished an going nowhere when he was blocked. I can't like him off that effort. Also, I still think he won the Breeders Futurity because SS moved too soon and CQ moved too late.He's been a huge disappointment
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>geeker2:
</TD><TD>Q: opps Steve what do you think of Liquidity
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I think his owner really wants to run in the Derby, and he's entitled.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>3Dee:
</TD><TD>Q: Including the Wood, I don't feel Any Given Saturday has run a bad race. What are your thoughts for Saturday?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I didn't like his Wood at all. And he seems to be everyone's wiseguy horse so I'm expecting an unexciting 14-1ish on him.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>derbyfritz:
</TD><TD>Q: can stormello go the distance ?? what's your thoughts on this
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>The way he stopped going a furlong shorter in the Florida Derby I just can't see it.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>mromeo:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve - Who are your A's and B's
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I really haven't finalized it but my A's are Street Sense, Nobiz and Circular QUay. I'll also use Scat Daddy, Curlin only defensively, and Dominican as a longshot flyer.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>boboo:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, what do you think about Zanjero. He was stuck inside in the Bluegrass and finished pretty well?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I didn't like his finish all that much and he was closer early to that ridiculously slow pace than either SS or Dominican, so I don;t see why he should reverse his finish b ehind them. To me he's a cut below, a 3rd/4th-only kind of horse.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>marty_dirt:
</TD><TD>Q: scat daddy pretender or contender?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I may get drummed out of the Speed Figure Fraternity for saying this but I think he's a contender. He has done almost nothing wrong, he's won more stakes than anyone, he's the only dual Grade 1 winner, and he's held in well in races where he prompted a fast pace. No figs, but a pretty nice horse.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Silver_Charm:
</TD><TD>Q: Hello Steven. How do you think the horses that ran on the polytrack surfaces Beyer numbers translate to the Churchill surface or any dirt surface for that matter?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I think the Beyer figures earned in superslow-paced Poly races are virtually meaningless. When you go 1:17 early, trhe final time is going to be goofy.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Winooski_Tip:
</TD><TD>Q: Can you make any case for Sedgefield or Teuflesberg?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>No and no.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Though I'll say Teuflesburg is a hell of a horse to survive how he's been campaigned.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>vic_ace:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve: do you think the exp hiweight/dosage angle has any validity?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>No and no.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Look, obviously it's good to be a good 2-year-old and to be bred not entirely for sprinting, but codifying it beyoind that becomes a silly academic exercise.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Robwins1:
</TD><TD>Q: I told my daughter to pick a winner for the derby and I would bet her 2 bucks on it. She picked Bwana Bull! Should I keep my two bucks?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I'll book her $2 if you're not man eniough.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Joe_Rod_:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, who do you think will be the wiseguy horse?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I think AGS is likely to fill that role. EVeryone's always fighting the last war and people remember Bluegrass Cat at 30-1. But I think AGS will be half that price.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dr__D:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, what longshots are you including and why?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Dominican because maybe he's really improved and not just on Poly, and Tiago because his SA Derby was okay and he's still got upside.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Jackson_White:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you have an Oaks pick?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>R to R is a really nice filly and it's not a great group but if I can really get the 15-1 ML on Autobahn Girl I might try her.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Hotsie_Totsie:
</TD><TD>Q: Hi Steven, what is your take on jrv's choice of mount?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I found it reassuring in regards to Cq BECAUSE i DON;T THINK jv WOULD HAVE TAKEN HIM IF THE HORSE HAD A SECRET PROBLEM THAT KEPT HIM ON THE SIDELINES. bUT IT'S NOT CLEAR THAT gOMEZ DOESN'T HAVE NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUT AND CHOICE WITH pLETCHER THESE DAYS.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>whiteoakgin:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve- what's the minimum odds you'll take on SS
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I'm not primarily a win bettor so that's not a huge issue for me. I think he may well go off the post-time fave bbut I expect him to be 7-2/4-1.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>tc:
</TD><TD>Q: of the twenty, who can we safely toss from the top four?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Sedgefield, Storm in May, Imawildncrazytrainer, Liquidity, Bwana Bull
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>rfh52pop:
</TD><TD>Q: Is Pletcher finally going to win one?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>It's just a matter of time till he does....I'm old enough to remember when Lukas was being tormented by the press for going 0-15 or something in the Derby and he went out and won three. The idea that Pletcher's jinxed in the race is riudiculous. He's going to have 3-5 top contenders every year for a long time.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>CESOPX:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you see any horse surpassing Barbaro's winning margin to win the bonus that is being offered? Thanks, and good luck to you
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>That bonus is an atrocity and it's a shame no one at Churchill was brave enough to say no. It's also pretty chicken, since a horse has won by more than six lengths exactly once in the last 60 years.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Wallyhorse:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you think there should be some rules in place to perhaps try and make top conteders go in more preps before the Derby (i.e.: Give first entry preference to horses who race in Graded stakes events at least three times in the 60 days immediately prior to
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I don;t think that works. Do you really want to keep Curlin out of the Derby for only running in two stakes? But I do think they need to change the system to points or berths instead of money or pretty soon we'll be qualifying horses to the Derby for running in $3 million Grade 3 preps at racinos.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>rfh52pop:
</TD><TD>Q: Even though Circular Quay has not been 1 1/8 miles yet, his closing kick looks like he would appreciate the longer distance, your thoughts
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>That's what I'm hoping. After his 2yo campaign I thought he might be a closing sprinter his Louisiana Derby may have been the most visually impressive of all the preps. I'm guessing distance won;t be a problem for him.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>CESOPX:
</TD><TD>Q: Is this Steve Asmussen's year to win the KY Derby?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Obviously the guy's an excellent trainer and wins a lot but his record in Grade 1's and at classic distances isn't very inspiring. And he's only had Curlin this year. On balance, I don;lt think he's a plus or a minus.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>ddm:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, Did Street Sense's "off the rail" performance in the stretch in the Bluegrass indicate he runs best on the rail and his trip could compromise his Derby performance ??
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Just because he came up the rail twice doesn't mean that's the only way he can win. I'm expecting him to improve off his Blue Grass.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Thanks for all your question and good luck Saturday. Don;t forget to handicap the rest of the card -- there should be lots of opportunities there.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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Thursday, May 3, 2007
<TABLE><TBODY><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Greeting all! Let's talk Derby ...
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Ianv:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, it seems handicapper either love Curlin chances or dismiss him out of hand. What say you?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>That's understandable...
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>He's a wonderfully talented horse who faces a huge challenge here. I'd take a flyer on him at 12-1 but as the 7-2 favorite I want no part of him
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Djarum:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, Dominican beat Street Sense once, why can't he beat him again?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>He's one of the few 20-1+ shots I give a chance to....People dismiss him as a Poly-only horse, and that's possible but it's also possible he really improved after being grlded over the winter.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>grlded=gelded
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Jackson_White:
</TD><TD>Q: Beyer called Cowtown Cat a bum, I don't see him in the exacta but will use in 3-4 slots. Your opinion on CC?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>It's hard for me to like him over two perfect-setup races where he earned low winning figures but I suppose he could be fourth if you stretch it.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Woofer:
</TD><TD>Q: Evening Steve, great competitive field, no? Tiago's manuevering in the SA Derby looked superb. Can he win the Roses, though
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Tiago has come a long way for a horse with only four starts and I like him more than I liked his half-brother Giacomo. Still, he's stepping way up in terms of the quality of horse he's meeting. I think he's a very live underneath horse for tris and supers.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Buzz_Man_on_Campus:
</TD><TD>Q: I loved Exotic Betting, great book, in that vain Hard Spun= A,B,C or X?? I have him an X but could move up.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>IThanks...I also have him as an x but he hasn't done a lot wrong. I thought there'd be more of a buzz and him and he'd be a toss for me at 10-1 but 20 I wouldn't want to get beat by him for third.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>plodder17:
</TD><TD>Q: Steven - What is your take on the low Beyer speed figures for the field?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>It's an indisputable fact that they're unusually and consistently low this year. In part this could be because everyone is less developed and has fewer starts than usual, and everyone seems to be training them to peak for now. But the major preps were ALL slower than par this year.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Jimmy_California:
</TD><TD>Q: Steven, between all the typical biases--not racing as a 2 year-old, a 5-week plus layoff, less than 3 preps--you can pretty much eliminate most of the contenders, save Nobiz and Scat Daddy. Which "bias" do you think as the least impact?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I think that to continue to insist a horse have three preps is probably unreasonable. Barbaro's first of three preps was on January 1. Would he have lost the Derby if he'd raced on 12/31/05 instead of 1/1/06? Of course not. Training has changed so dramatically that some old rules should be tossed.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Jimmy_California:
</TD><TD>Q: Steven, I know it was Polytrack, but Street Sense just lost to potential 20-1 shot Dominican and wasn't much better than potential 40-1 shots Zanjero and Teufelsberg...what do you make of Sense's effort in the Blue Grass?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>The race was run so strangely that I wouldn't micro-analyze it. I also don;t think he was trained to be 100 percent for that race. It was a step to get to where I hope he'll be Saturday.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>wowow888:
</TD><TD>Q: what do you think of Sam P.? He is the only Pletcher's horse that trained on CD.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>He was too close to the pace in the SA Derby but I still just see him as being a cut below the top flight in here.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>SJS:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, I'm liking Dominican and Great Hunter a little less after the post selection. How much influence does post position have on your betting of the Derby?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I think post is vastly overrated, and only because you have 1000 reporters here on Wednesday with nothing else to write about. Good horses overcome bad draws.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Br00klynAJ:
</TD><TD>Q: Hi Steven. Nobiz' final 8ths have been a bit slow. He came home faster n tihe Remsen over the same surface. Am I wrong to think he's got enough in him to step forward?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I hope you're not wrong because I've always liked him and he's my second pick in the race. I think we haven't seen the best of him and that he has room to improve after starting out at a very high level. I also like that he can make his own trip and avoid looping 15 of them.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Mitch:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, How concerned are you about Circular Quay's layoff? Is he a toss?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Well, he's my THIRD pick so he's not a toss with me. I think the layoff would be more of a concernb with a speed horse or presser. With a one-run closer, I don;t care as much. Similarly, you see grass hoprses win long rcaes off long layoffs more than on dirt because they're kicking in late.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>detroitd:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, it looked like Great Hunter got blocked down the lane in the Blue Grass, how do u like his chances Sat.?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I think he was finished an going nowhere when he was blocked. I can't like him off that effort. Also, I still think he won the Breeders Futurity because SS moved too soon and CQ moved too late.He's been a huge disappointment
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>geeker2:
</TD><TD>Q: opps Steve what do you think of Liquidity
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I think his owner really wants to run in the Derby, and he's entitled.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>3Dee:
</TD><TD>Q: Including the Wood, I don't feel Any Given Saturday has run a bad race. What are your thoughts for Saturday?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I didn't like his Wood at all. And he seems to be everyone's wiseguy horse so I'm expecting an unexciting 14-1ish on him.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>derbyfritz:
</TD><TD>Q: can stormello go the distance ?? what's your thoughts on this
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>The way he stopped going a furlong shorter in the Florida Derby I just can't see it.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>mromeo:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve - Who are your A's and B's
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I really haven't finalized it but my A's are Street Sense, Nobiz and Circular QUay. I'll also use Scat Daddy, Curlin only defensively, and Dominican as a longshot flyer.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>boboo:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, what do you think about Zanjero. He was stuck inside in the Bluegrass and finished pretty well?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I didn't like his finish all that much and he was closer early to that ridiculously slow pace than either SS or Dominican, so I don;t see why he should reverse his finish b ehind them. To me he's a cut below, a 3rd/4th-only kind of horse.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>marty_dirt:
</TD><TD>Q: scat daddy pretender or contender?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I may get drummed out of the Speed Figure Fraternity for saying this but I think he's a contender. He has done almost nothing wrong, he's won more stakes than anyone, he's the only dual Grade 1 winner, and he's held in well in races where he prompted a fast pace. No figs, but a pretty nice horse.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Silver_Charm:
</TD><TD>Q: Hello Steven. How do you think the horses that ran on the polytrack surfaces Beyer numbers translate to the Churchill surface or any dirt surface for that matter?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I think the Beyer figures earned in superslow-paced Poly races are virtually meaningless. When you go 1:17 early, trhe final time is going to be goofy.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Winooski_Tip:
</TD><TD>Q: Can you make any case for Sedgefield or Teuflesberg?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>No and no.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Though I'll say Teuflesburg is a hell of a horse to survive how he's been campaigned.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>vic_ace:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve: do you think the exp hiweight/dosage angle has any validity?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>No and no.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Look, obviously it's good to be a good 2-year-old and to be bred not entirely for sprinting, but codifying it beyoind that becomes a silly academic exercise.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Robwins1:
</TD><TD>Q: I told my daughter to pick a winner for the derby and I would bet her 2 bucks on it. She picked Bwana Bull! Should I keep my two bucks?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I'll book her $2 if you're not man eniough.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Joe_Rod_:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, who do you think will be the wiseguy horse?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I think AGS is likely to fill that role. EVeryone's always fighting the last war and people remember Bluegrass Cat at 30-1. But I think AGS will be half that price.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Dr__D:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, what longshots are you including and why?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Dominican because maybe he's really improved and not just on Poly, and Tiago because his SA Derby was okay and he's still got upside.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Jackson_White:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you have an Oaks pick?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>R to R is a really nice filly and it's not a great group but if I can really get the 15-1 ML on Autobahn Girl I might try her.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Hotsie_Totsie:
</TD><TD>Q: Hi Steven, what is your take on jrv's choice of mount?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I found it reassuring in regards to Cq BECAUSE i DON;T THINK jv WOULD HAVE TAKEN HIM IF THE HORSE HAD A SECRET PROBLEM THAT KEPT HIM ON THE SIDELINES. bUT IT'S NOT CLEAR THAT gOMEZ DOESN'T HAVE NEARLY AS MUCH CLOUT AND CHOICE WITH pLETCHER THESE DAYS.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>whiteoakgin:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve- what's the minimum odds you'll take on SS
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I'm not primarily a win bettor so that's not a huge issue for me. I think he may well go off the post-time fave bbut I expect him to be 7-2/4-1.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>tc:
</TD><TD>Q: of the twenty, who can we safely toss from the top four?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Sedgefield, Storm in May, Imawildncrazytrainer, Liquidity, Bwana Bull
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>rfh52pop:
</TD><TD>Q: Is Pletcher finally going to win one?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>It's just a matter of time till he does....I'm old enough to remember when Lukas was being tormented by the press for going 0-15 or something in the Derby and he went out and won three. The idea that Pletcher's jinxed in the race is riudiculous. He's going to have 3-5 top contenders every year for a long time.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>CESOPX:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you see any horse surpassing Barbaro's winning margin to win the bonus that is being offered? Thanks, and good luck to you
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>That bonus is an atrocity and it's a shame no one at Churchill was brave enough to say no. It's also pretty chicken, since a horse has won by more than six lengths exactly once in the last 60 years.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Wallyhorse:
</TD><TD>Q: Do you think there should be some rules in place to perhaps try and make top conteders go in more preps before the Derby (i.e.: Give first entry preference to horses who race in Graded stakes events at least three times in the 60 days immediately prior to
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>I don;t think that works. Do you really want to keep Curlin out of the Derby for only running in two stakes? But I do think they need to change the system to points or berths instead of money or pretty soon we'll be qualifying horses to the Derby for running in $3 million Grade 3 preps at racinos.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>rfh52pop:
</TD><TD>Q: Even though Circular Quay has not been 1 1/8 miles yet, his closing kick looks like he would appreciate the longer distance, your thoughts
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>That's what I'm hoping. After his 2yo campaign I thought he might be a closing sprinter his Louisiana Derby may have been the most visually impressive of all the preps. I'm guessing distance won;t be a problem for him.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>CESOPX:
</TD><TD>Q: Is this Steve Asmussen's year to win the KY Derby?
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Obviously the guy's an excellent trainer and wins a lot but his record in Grade 1's and at classic distances isn't very inspiring. And he's only had Curlin this year. On balance, I don;lt think he's a plus or a minus.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>ddm:
</TD><TD>Q: Steve, Did Street Sense's "off the rail" performance in the stretch in the Bluegrass indicate he runs best on the rail and his trip could compromise his Derby performance ??
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Just because he came up the rail twice doesn't mean that's the only way he can win. I'm expecting him to improve off his Blue Grass.
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD>Steven_Crist:
</TD><TD>Thanks for all your question and good luck Saturday. Don;t forget to handicap the rest of the card -- there should be lots of opportunities there.
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
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