Jibba's Wed MLB

Favorites: 55-29 for +14.53 units
Underdogs: 20-10 +15.95 units
Total: 71-34 for +30.48 units

Run Lines: 0-1 -1.00 units

My last day before my vacation was a bad one. Lost a couple really tough games and if not for my vacation I likely would have been on tilt. Still kind of was, but fortunately I didn't play anything for the first couple days. Started up again a couple days ago and finished off my vacation with a 4-0 day yesterday. I'm hoping I can get right back on track today after a nice relaxing vacation.

Pittsburgh -117: I think Marquis's last two starts against the Cards have created an image among the public that he is a better pitcher than he is. But he's not playing his old team this time around. While Marquis has had success against the Pirates in the past, it has not been against an offense this good, especially considering that LaRoche hasn't started hitting yet.

Pittsburgh has played solid all year while the Cubs have more often than not looked awful. In this game, the Pirates will be at home and will be sending their ace to the mound. And the public still refuses to give him respect in my opinion. Snell has given up 4 earned runs in his last 28 innings pitched (6 on the season) and is sporting some extremely impressive numbers on the year that just can't be argued with. 1.17 units to win 1.

Milwaukee -138: Nobody is playing better than the Brewers right now and tonight they'll be facing a pitcher who has consistently been overvalued this year in my opinion. Anthony Reyes came into this season with expectations of serious improvements over last year. But we haven't seen any and batters are hitting him pretty hard so far this season (.265 BAA - .286 BAA on the road). I like this hot young Brewers offense to keep it going today against Reyes.

Capuano will be taking the hill for Milwaukee in this one. He's been very consistent so far this year and should be able to put up another quality start today against an offense that just hasn't started clicking yet. 1.38 units to win 1.

NY Yankees -144: The Yankees' downfall has been all the talk in sports the past week or two. And I think we're seeing the effect of that tonight in Texas. Pettitte has been the most solid and consistent pitcher on the Yankees' staff this year by far. Getting him at under -150 is a huge steal against this weak Rangers team.

I don't know if the public really thinks Tejeda is a good young pitcher or what. But I feel confident that he doesn't have nearly the stuff to shut down this NY offense. 1.44 units to win 1.

_________________________________________

I still have a lot of work to do on the other games, but I currently have leans on Florida, Minnesota, Cleveland, Detroit, LAA, SD, and Oakland. BOL to everyone on their cards today.

Florida +166: The Marlins are playing solid ball right now and Ollie just doesn't deserve this much credit. Florida has won 7 of their last 10 while the consistently overvalued Mets have been stumbling a bit lately. Oliver Perez has looked decent in his last 2 starts, even if he did give up 17 hits in 13.2 innings. But over -170 at some books against an offense that leads the majors with 148 runs scored? The only reason I can come up with is a public infatuation with strikeouts (Ollie had 9 in each of his last 2 starts). Perez has never looked all that great against the Marlins when their offense wasn't one of the best in the league (5.46 ERA in 6 starts). Additionally, against the current Marlins, Perez has faced only 2 players in 8 or more at bats. Cabrera is 3 for 9 with 2 HRs, and Willingham is 4 for 8 with 2 HRs. I could easily see Ollie getting knocked out of this one early.

For the Marlins, Anibal Sanchez will be making his 6th start. While he has yet to show us the pitcher who threw a no-hitter last year as a rookie, he hasn't looked too bad either. In 2 career starts against the Mets, he's looked good enough to warrant much more respect than he's getting with this line. 1 unit to win 1.66.

Will be back shortly with more. Haven't decided if I'll play the other early game (Det/Balt). While I'm not too high on the Tigers' pitching this year, Robertson is the one who I think is undervalued the most. Not sure if he warrants this line or not though. BOL to everyone.

Dsethi said:

hope you enjoyed your vacation jibba jibba and hope the Brewers pull one out for us.

Click to expand...

Same here man. And the Marlins wouldn't be a bad way to start the afternoon either.

Just want to update my record as well, since I screwed it up yet again in the OP.

Favorites: 55-29 for +14.53 units
Underdogs: 20-10 +15.95 units
Total: 75-39 for +30.48 units

Run Lines: 0-1 -1.00 units

Houston -164: I did a big roundabout on this one. When I saw the line come out at over -180 after Oswalt was named the starter, I was looking at a potential play on the Reds. Even though I'm not huge on Lohse, he's looked good so far this year and the line just seemed a little high considering how badly Houston is playing. When I looked a little deeper, I decided to stay away as I thought the line was pretty much where it should have been, and possibly even slightly low.

So in the past 20 minutes or so, the line somehow dropped to -164, possibly due to the logic that made me first consider the Reds as a play. But while Oswalt has not been his normal self so far this year, you don't bet against him when he's facing the Reds. I don't even know how a pitcher gets to be 17-1 with a 2.54 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP against a team (also 127 Ks against only 34 walks in 142 IPs), but I don't care. I've been a little down on Oswalt after his last 2 starts, but after some digging I really think that he could not ask for a better situation in which to bounce back. 1.64 units to win 1.

LA Angels -107: I've mentioned at least a few times this year that De La Rosa is simply not as good as his stats would lead us to believe. At least not yet. He may have a very bright future, but I don't think he can stop this hot Angels offense. On the other side, Santana's woes on the road are well documented. I think he's regularly been overpriced this year, but I think De La Rosa and the Royals are getting a bit too much respect from the books with this line. 1.07 units to win 1.

Jibba,
I, too, continued to doubt De La Rosa, but this guy has continued to put up pretty respectable numbers and keep the Royals in ball games. As you mentioned, everyone is aware of Santana's road numbers, but they are what they are, even against the Royals. I think this team will hit better in the coming weeks. Gordon is getting more comfortable, Teahen is improving, Dejesus will continue to hit, and Billy Butler, the rookie they called up yesterday, may actually add a spark to the lineup. The guy can hit- just 21 years old. Went 2 for 4 last night in his debut. I think the line is this low for a reason. Probably will play the Royals here 1st 5 innings, as I cannot trust the Royals pen. Always enjoy your writeups. GL.

solid season till now blue man ..keep the run ..

rouxdogg said:

Jibba,
I, too, continued to doubt De La Rosa, but this guy has continued to put up pretty respectable numbers and keep the Royals in ball games. As you mentioned, everyone is aware of Santana's road numbers, but they are what they are, even against the Royals. I think this team will hit better in the coming weeks. Gordon is getting more comfortable, Teahen is improving, Dejesus will continue to hit, and Billy Butler, the rookie they called up yesterday, may actually add a spark to the lineup. The guy can hit- just 21 years old. Went 2 for 4 last night in his debut. I think the line is this low for a reason. Probably will play the Royals here 1st 5 innings, as I cannot trust the Royals pen. Always enjoy your writeups. GL.

Click to expand...

Thanks man. I actually love KC's youth. I stop a little short of saying they'll be good in a couple years, but not because they don't have talent. Just because they won't keep all their talent. Gordon and Butler are top propsects and probably have great careers ahead of them, but I want to see them to it in the bigs before I put any faith in them. Even Dejesus has never been the player I thought he would be.

You definitely make me a bit less confident in the play, but I'll ride it out. Just think the pitching disparity is too great and Santana isn't going to lose every game he pitches on the road. BOL with your plays roux.

The Mask said:

solid season till now blue man ..keep the run ..

Click to expand...

Thank you sir.

___________________________________

Will be back in an hour or so with the rest of my card if I decide to add.

gl jibba i'm on two of yours pitt an stros....

gl:toast:

Hey Jib, Thanks for the well wishes.. Keep up the good work..Maybe ill get a 2-0 day one of these days..Hah!

mudder said:

gl jibba i'm on two of yours pitt an stros....

gl:toast:

Click to expand...

Good to hear it man. Let's hope Pitt's got enough in their tank to get this one.

Currently the Brewers are up 4-0, the Marlins are down 5-1, and the Pirates are down 2-1. Still plenty of time in all of them. Going to add a couple plays:

Minnesota -126: I'm a little skeptical of Bonser these days as he consistently fails to get out of (or even into) the 6th inning. But I can't resist a solid opportunity to fade Jae Seo and his 9.15 ERA, 2.15 WHIP, and .398 BAA. Minnesota has been solid on the road this year and I think they get it done in Tampa. 1.26 units to win 1.

Cleveland -154: I think that pretty much everyone was down on Westbrook and the Tribe about 2 weeks ago. I still don't understand how this team looked so bad during that stretch. But at this point I don't care. They're playing the way I expected them to play coming into the season, and they're winning ballgames left and right. The only thing left to worry about is getting Jake Westbrook back on track. His last two starts, while not great, were steps in the right direction. I think he takes another one tonight.

For Toronto, Victor Zambrano makes his first start of the season tonight. If it's anything like his relief performances, Cleveland is going to crush him. 1.54 units to win 1.

___________________________________________

Best of luck to everyone on their cards today.

I'm on Brewers (looking pretty good), Cleveland, and Angels aswell I went with -1 1/2 on Brewers and Indians though. GL

Well, 1-2 to start the day for -1.17 units. Going to add a bit to some of my plays after I've had a bit more time to run them through my head. Going to add a half unit to Minnesota (-130), Cleveland (-154) and NYY (-144).

Final card:

NY Yankees -144: 2.16 to win 1.5.
Minnesota -126: 1.91 units to win 1.5.
Cleveland -154: 2.31 units to win 1.5.
Pittsburgh -117: 1.17 units to win 1. Loss
Milwaukee -138: 1.38 units to win 1. Win
Florida +166: 1 unit to win 1.66. Loss
Houston -164: 1.64 units to win 1.
LA Angels -107: 1.07 units to win 1.

As always, BOL to everyone tonight.

Jibba said:

Well, 1-2 to start the day for -1.17 units. Going to add a bit to some of my plays after I've had a bit more time to run them through my head. Going to add a half unit to Minnesota (-130), Cleveland (-154) and NYY (-144).

Final card:

NY Yankees -144: 2.16 to win 1.5.
Minnesota -126: 1.91 units to win 1.5.
Cleveland -154: 2.31 units to win 1.5.
Pittsburgh -117: 1.17 units to win 1. Loss
Milwaukee -138: 1.38 units to win 1. Win
Florida +166: 1 unit to win 1.66. Loss
Houston -164: 1.64 units to win 1.
LA Angels -107: 1.07 units to win 1.

As always, BOL to everyone tonight.

Click to expand...

Pitt game is not over yet....we have seen crazier things. Have some faith:banger:

billsfan said:

Pitt game is not over yet....we have seen crazier things. Have some faith:banger:

Click to expand...

True. I generally don't give up on games like that but for some reason was willing to write that one off. 7-1 in the 9th, still with nobody out though.

1-2 on the day still officially but winning my 3 of my last 4 late. Let's hope they can all hold on. Like one of the late games after thinking about it all day.

San Francisco -150: Francis can be a solid pitcher at times, but I don't like this spot for him. Considering the way he's pitched lately, going up against a hot Giants offense on the road is not the perfect situation for him. The Giants have put up 24 runs in their last 4 games and have won 6 of their last 7 home games. I don't see any reason for that to change going up against Francis, who has always been bad on the road. 1.50 units to win 1.

good pick

ATP said:

good pick

Click to expand...

Thanks. Not a bad day you're having I noticed. Keep up the good work man.

Also, I said above I was winning 3 of my last 4. Cleveland is tied though so only winning 2 right now.