MLB: Wednesday May 2nd Plays

buffettgambler · May 2, 2007

I may add later.

Cubs @ Pirates
Play: Cubs +116
Intrinsic Value: -113
Consider Buying Price: +101
Comment:
No matter what happens in the continuation game, I view the Cubs undervalued in the following game. Despite being high on Snell, he is no longer a secret, as the general public has caught on to his pitching abilities, and are now exaggerating his abilities by over bidding on the Pirates. This appears to be a good spot for Snell to come back to earth, as he faces a team that dominated him last year and fundamentally matches up well with is power pitching style. He has actually been more vulnerable this year against right handed hitters, which could be a problem going up against a lineup loaded from the right side. Almost all his poor outings in his career have occurred during day games, as he was one of the worst day game pitchers in baseball last year. He comes into today’s game with a career day game ERA over six. There are several Cubs batters that have hit him well in limited at bats, while even Soriano took him deep last year when playing for the Nats. The Pirates bullpen has been solid, but still are vulnerable in the backend, as Torres is still a liability on the mound. The Cubs have one of the most potent lineups in baseball, and sooner or later will show that to be the case. They went deep three times yesterday.

Snell is not the only starting pitcher in this game that has been dominant on the mound to start off the season, as Marquis is showing his potential as well. He seems to have gotten his head on straight and has fixed a couple of deficiencies that plagued his season last year. He was one of the easiest pitchers to hit home runs against last year, but this year has allowed just one home run. He has been one of the hardest pitchers to get hits off of, and has been dominating both right and left handed hitting. He has always been more effective on the road and during day games, two variables that will also be working in his favor. He has also had solid career success against the Pirates, especially in this park. The depth in the Cubs bullpen allows them to be built for having to pitch in two games in one day. The Pirates have done a good job winning games, but their propensity to play station to station baseball still exists, making their offense not terribly potent, and are still struggling to score runs.

buffettgambler · May 2, 2007

Marlins @ Mets
Play: Marlins +164
Intrinsic Value: +129
Consider Betting Price: +150
Comment:
It appears that the public mentality of believing that there is no way that the Mets get swept at home has bid up the market price of today’s game. Although there is a good chance that they win this game, there is it not nearly as good as the current line indicates. There is no denying that Sanchez does not look nearly as sharp on the mound this year. His command is lacking, forcing him to walk a lot of batters as well as being much more hittable compared to last year. However, the risk he brings to the table is fully reflected in the market price, and then some. He still has the ability to be dominant, and won both games against the Mets last year. He has been equally as hard on left handed hitting in this career, making him less vulnerable against this Mets lineup than most teams. The Mets are clearly not playing to their potential in recent series, as a few of their hitters are battling a slump right now. They are one of the rare teams that don’t hit better at home, and have been known to rest a starter or two in a day game following a night game.

Unlike the Mets lineup, the Marlins are hitting the ball as well as any other team in baseball right now, and it is no fluke, as their young hitters are the real deal. Today they have a good chance to bring Perez back to earth, as he has been pitching over his head a bit this year. He has struggled in the past against the Marlins, and has been a southpaw that is harder to hit for right handed hitters throughout his career. This does not bode well for his chances, as there are a couple of Marlins right handed hitters that have hit him well in limited at bats. The Marlins have scored at least five runs in four of their last five games, have been one of the best lineups year to date against left handed pitching, hitting on the road, and hitting during day games. The Mets bullpen is not as good as last years pen.

buffettgambler · May 2, 2007

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers
Play: Dodgers -122
Intrinsic Value: -143
Consider Betting Price: -125
Comment:
Although Hendrickson has been pitching over his head this season, there is no denying that he has become a more effective pitcher since his surgery a couple of years back, as he added velocity to his pitches as well as improved his command. He has been one of the hardest pitchers in baseball to hit this year, as he has allowed just eleven hits in over 21 innings year to date. Leaving Tampa to go to the Dodgers was also an ideal match for him, as being a fly ball pitcher should be helped by the spacious home park he now pitches in. His finesse style matches up best against the more impatient lineups in the league, which the Diamondbacks are considered. His home woes in past years have been a product of the confines of home park rather than psychological. He has put together dominant starts at home this year. He is not a candidate to go deep into games, but is backed by the ideal bullpen to supplement this deficiency. The Diamdonbacks are not nearly as dangerous of a team on the road, and have not hit southpaws well this year.

There is no way Davis will be able to sustain his current numbers with the way he has been pitching this year. He has actually looked bad on the mound in almost all of his starts, as his lack of command will sooner or later catch up to him. His whip is currently at a dangerous level, as his high walk ratio and ability to get hit as well will produce a lot more runs in the future. Although he has put forth solid numbers in limited innings against the Dodgers, they lack sustainability, as he has struggled against as many hitters as he has had success against. He is not as an effective pitcher compared to the one he was when these numbers were accumulated. The Dodgers are a lineup better built for left handed pitching, and are always a more dangerous home team. Davis’s propensity to accumulate a high pitch count early in games, does not bode well for the Diamondbacks, as he is backed by not a very good bullpen.

buffettgambler · May 2, 2007

Blue Jays @ Indians
Play: Indians -150
Intrinsic Value: -174
Consider Betting Price: -158
Comment:
The Indians are the real deal, and the public knows it. Therefore, it is not often that you will see them undervalued, but you will when they are putting forth a struggling pitcher on the mound and are up against an overrated road team. Westrbrook is a better pitcher than his numbers would indicate, and has actually put forth a quality start in three of his five outings. Aside from two poor road outings, a situation that he really struggled in last year as well, he has actually been solid. He was one of the most dominant home pitchers in baseball last year, and has pitched solidly at home this year as well. Being a sinkerball pitcher is ideal against a lineup with so much power spread throughout. He has always been hard for right handed hitters to take out, which curtails the talent the Blue Jays lineup brings to the table. The Blue Jays are not nearly as potent on the road as they are at home. Although he is not backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, it is a bullpen that has pitched well so far this season, and is actually more talented than their counterparts right now.

This is not the ideal team you want to pitch against in your first start of the season, but that will be the case for Zambrano, a pitcher that has not looked good on the mound for nearly two years. Zambrano earned this rotation spot on default rather that pitching ability, as he is not the same pitcher he once was at a younger age and prior to injuries. He has not looked sharp on the mound in relief role, and has always been vulnerable against left handed bats. His propensity to walk a lot of batters will also be magnified, as he is up against one of the most patient lineups in the league. He is not expected to go deep into this game, and the underbelly of the Blue Jays pen should be overmatched by this dangerous Indians lineup.

buffettgambler · May 2, 2007

Twins @ Devil Rays
Play: Twins -122
Intrinsic Value: -163
Consider Betting Price: -141
Comment:
Although I am not as high on Bonser as I was prior to seasons start, I still appear to think much more of him than linesmakers. He has been plagued by two deficiencies this year, a lot of walks and home runs allowed. The Devil Rays lack of patience will allow them to take advantage of only one of these deficiencies, and will be limiting the damage of the home run if they are unable to draw a lot of walks in this game. The Devil Rays lineup has also cooled off of late, and were even unable to do damage against Ponson last night. Bonser has actually been somewhat hard to get hits off of this year, and has been striking out a lot of batters. Unlike the other struggling pitcher going on the mound this game, Bonser is backed by the best bullpen in baseball, which should force the Devil Rays to have to do a lot of damage early in the game.

Seo might be the biggest liability on the mound right now. You can not be more hittable than what he has been, and it appears that his struggles of last year have only gotten worse, as he has been batting practice this year. Even a sub par road lineup like the Twins could do damage against them, as they proved this to be the case this year as well as last year. They are batting .360 against him going into this game, while opponents in general are batting nearly .400 against him this season. Both right and left handed bats have thoroughly dominated him. Things won’t get much harder for the Twins when he leaves the game, as he is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, that are especially vulnerable in the front end, a portion that Seo has been unable to avoid this year.

buffettgambler · May 2, 2007

Phillies @ Braves
Play: Braves -114
Intrinsic Value: -153
Consider Betting Price: -138
Comment:
After two sub par outings in a row, the public seems to not want anything to do with James, are not factoring in that he was built to struggle in both starts, and is still one of the better young left handers in the league. This is also a start in which he is primed to pitch well in, as he has dominated the Phillies in his young career, and fundamentally matches up well against them. He has been much harder to pick up and time during night games, and has put forth better numbers at home. The Phillies have not done a good job scoring rungs against him in past starts, were once again overmatched by his style of pitching earlier in the year, and have averaged nearly a strike out an inning against him. He has actually been harder on right handed hitters, and a bit more vulnerable against left handers, which has not helped out the Phillies most dangerous hitter Howard, who is hitless in nine at bats against him. James is backed by one of the better bullpens in the league, and a bullpen whose 9th inning has actually become safer with Wickman now on the DL.

Garcia does not yet look right on the mound, as he has been overlying on the off speed pitch and has not found confidence in his fastball yet. Left handed hitters have owned him so far this year, which does not bode well for his chances, as the Braves have some talented hitters from the left side, including one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He is also the easiest pitcher to steal off of, which is also something the Braves could really take advantage of. His propensity to accumulate high pitch counts early in games has forced him to early exits, and although the Phillies bullpen has pitched well so far this year, are not terribly talented. Their front end bullpen has also struggled against the Braves.

buffettgambler · May 2, 2007

Reds @ Astros
Play: Astros -162
Intrinsic Value -200
Consider Betting Price: -182
Comment:
Although on the surface, Oswalt always appears to carry a large price tag at home, he has consistently been undervalued in his home starts. There might not be a pitcher in the NL that I would rather have at home, as he has been absolutely dominant at home throughout his career. Adding to this huge asset is the notion that he has also dominated the Reds in his career, and has been able to win 17 of his 18 decisions against them. He has had the upper hand against a few of their hitters, and has really dominated them when pitching in this park. The Reds have one of the least potent road lineups in baseball, and I see no reason think they don’t remain overmatched by Oswalt. He is also one of the better pitchers at going deep into games, and could avoid the front end of the Astros bullpen.

Lohse finally came back to earth in his last start, as he was just not fooling anyone. His strikeout rate is down in two straight starts, and the embedded advantage of facing teams that have not seen him does not apply in this game, as he has now pitched to the Astros three times. Lohse has not been as effective on the road throughout his career, and was dominated by Lee when they were both playing in the AL. He is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball, which should give the Astros the advantage in the later innings.

Jibba · May 2, 2007

Love the Marlins play but just think the combination of Snell and the Cubs playing awful makes Pitt the play here. I actually think Marquis is the one being overvalued here after his 2 big performances against the Cubs' arch rival and his former team the Cardinals.

Like the Twins and Indians but that Braves game gave me hell trying to get an angle on it. Great writeup and analysis on that one. Will likely follow you on that one and LAD. Somehow I completely missed that this was the same Hendrickson that was on TB last year.

Thanks for the plays and BOL as always BG.

Edit to comment on Houston since I didn't see that play before responding: I actually liked Cincy a little when I saw this come out at over +180. Because of Oswalt's history against the Reds I stayed away and am happy I did. Pretty shocked to see how far this one has fallen and at around -160 I will likely consider a play on Houston.

buffettgambler · May 2, 2007

Jibba said:
Love the Marlins play but just think the combination of Snell and the Cubs playing awful makes Pitt the play here. I actually think Marquis is the one being overvalued here after his 2 big performances against the Cubs' arch rival and his former team the Cardinals.

Like the Twins and Indians but that Braves game gave me hell trying to get an angle on it. Great writeup and analysis on that one. Will likely follow you on that one and LAD. Somehow I completely missed that this was the same Hendrickson that was on TB last year.

Thanks for the plays and BOL as always BG.

Edit to comment on Houston since I didn't see that play before responding: I actually liked Cincy a little when I saw this come out at over +180. Because of Oswalt's history against the Reds I stayed away and am happy I did. Pretty shocked to see how far this one has fallen and at around -160 I will likely consider a play on Houston.

Good to see you back Jibba. Good luck today.

Jibba · May 2, 2007

buffettgambler said:
Good to see you back Jibba. Good luck today.

Wish I hadn't been away considering that I heard you had a couple of great days over the weekend. Keep up the great work.

Dr.Swamee · May 2, 2007

Wow!! Great capping BB!!!

Ruffneck · May 2, 2007

Man you are on fire! Keep up the good work
and good luck today.
:money8:

HiPockets · May 2, 2007

Congrats on another sweep sheet BG. Bodog scored the Pitt game a win so the BG East Coast Parlay is now up 15.1 units for the season. As a MLB tailer, I mix my daily bets from 8 to 10 mostly RX cappers and am 72-70 (+1 unit) so the BG parlay is starting to look like an easier way to make a living (I won't spend any serious money on parlays, just entertainment ). Keep up the sweeps BG.

OSUCOWBOYS · May 2, 2007

+6.12 Yesterday

+40.31 YTD

Well I know the day would come just not this quick. My local has "waved the white flag". He told me he was cutting me off in baseball. I was still welcome to bet basketball and football but no more baseball. I think the $6500 ($500 units are my standard play) in two days I beat him out of was the straw that broke the camels back. He added it up and I have beat him out of $18K+ so far this season.

Oh well, I still have 5dimes and Betjam.

buffettgambler · May 2, 2007

OSUCOWBOYS said:
+6.12 Yesterday

+40.31 YTD

Well I know the day would come just not this quick. My local has "waved the white flag". He told me he was cutting me off in baseball. I was still welcome to bet basketball and football but no more baseball. I think the $6500 ($500 units are my standard play) in two days I beat him out of was the straw that broke the camels back. He added it up and I have beat him out of $18K+ so far this season.

Oh well, I still have 5dimes and Betjam.

Ha. It happens. Is that your first? Glad to be of help.

Good luck.

DNoonan · May 2, 2007

Your picks and writeups are much appreciated, good luck man.

edmac164 · May 2, 2007

OSUCOWBOYS said:
+6.12 Yesterday

+40.31 YTD

Well I know the day would come just not this quick. My local has "waved the white flag". He told me he was cutting me off in baseball. I was still welcome to bet basketball and football but no more baseball. I think the $6500 ($500 units are my standard play) in two days I beat him out of was the straw that broke the camels back. He added it up and I have beat him out of $18K+ so far this season.

Oh well, I still have 5dimes and Betjam.

Congratulations! I equate thet with a woman seeing me naked and saying" I can't take that thing big fella". So far neither have happened to me.

Stabler12 · May 2, 2007

OSUCOWBOYS said:
+6.12 Yesterday

+40.31 YTD

Well I know the day would come just not this quick. My local has "waved the white flag". He told me he was cutting me off in baseball. I was still welcome to bet basketball and football but no more baseball. I think the $6500 ($500 units are my standard play) in two days I beat him out of was the straw that broke the camels back. He added it up and I have beat him out of $18K+ so far this season.

Oh well, I still have 5dimes and Betjam.

They have to have better lines than the local.:thumbsup: Congrats!! Only had that happen once, hockey season about 25 years ago w/ the old puck lines. A great feeling and a bad one, all at once.:ughhh:

Stabler12 · May 2, 2007

edmac164 said:
Congratulations! I equate thet with a woman seeing me naked and saying" I can't take that thing big fella". So far neither have happened to me.

:missingte :missingte :missingte :missingte :missingte :missingte :missingte :missingte :missingte :missingte :missingte :missingte :missingte

OSUCOWBOYS · May 2, 2007

Just to clarify on my previous post I am NOT bragging on myself. I am just able to read and copy the best plays on the net. I told you guys a month ago this guy was a "cut above". He is just proving me right. We are BLESSED to have someone with his abilities to share his stuff with us. Most people would charge thousands of dollars for what he does for FREE.