Jibba's Thurs MLB

Favorites: 59-32 for +13.88 units
Underdogs: 20-11 +14.95 units
Total: 79-43 for +28.83 units

Run Lines: 0-1 -1.00 units

Well I fell under 30 units on ML plays last night. Really rough loss with the Twins, but at least Cleveland came through and the Giants came back to win it late. Like what I see of the card today so far.

NY Mets -134: The Mets haven't lost in Arizona since May, 2004. They've won 10 straight at Chase Field and the way Glavine has pitched against the D-Backs historically, they should make it 11 tonight. Glavine is 10-3 in 14 starts against Arizona, with a miniscule 2.27 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and a .219 BAA. And he's even better in Arizona, sporting an 8-1 record in 9 starts in Chase Field with a 1.37 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a .187 BAA. Additionally, May has always been Glavine's best month (55-31, 14 CGs, 3.54 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .244 BAA).

For the D-Backs, Micah Owings will be coming off the DL to pitch against one of the best offenses in the league and a very solid road team (9-3). Owings' outings thus far have lasted 5 innings, 6.1 innings, and 4 innings. I think that expecting him to last 6 coming off the DL is asking too much. And with an offense like the Mets', you always love getting to the bullpen. I really like the Mets to take this one easy. 2.01 units to win 1.5.

San Francisco -139: There is a big pitching mismatch in this one IMO. Eaton was a decent pitcher before his injury, but since coming back he has not shown good stuff. And going into San Fran, where the Giants have won 7 of their last 8 games, is not a good spot to try to get back on track. In 5 starts so far this year he's sporting a 7.71 ERA. With the way the Giants have been hitting lately, I think we can expect more of the same tonight.

The Giants send Matt Cain to the Hill tonight and he'll be looking to continue his streak of 4 straight games giving up 1 run or less. As if it isn't bad enough that the D-Backs are 25th in the league with a .245 batting average, they get to go against a pitcher with an amazing .109 BAA. Philly's offense has fizzled since heating up a couple weeks ago. Look for that to continue. 2.09 units to win 1.5.

Tampa Bay +102: I think the wrong team is favored here as James Shields continues to be overlooked and Ramon Ortiz continues to be overvalued. We all know he's not as good a pitcher as we've seen so far this year. He's not going to finish the year with an ERA under 3. Not even close. And I think this solid young D-Rays offense can help bring back the Ramon Ortiz of 2005, 5.57 ERA, .297 BAA, and all.

Just to throw out a few stats to show why I think Shields is underrated. In his last 2 starts, he's gone 16 innings while giving up only 6 hits and 3 ERs. In that span he's Kd 21 while walking only 2. On the season, teams are batting only .194 against him. He gives opposing hitters nothing. They have to earn every hit and every run. I like him to shut down an unpredictable Twins offense. 1 unit to win 1.02.

LA Angels -120: Don't have time to do a full writeup, but Weaver looked very good in his last start and the Royals offense doesn't terrify me. Meche is very solid at home, but it's not like he's blowing teams away. In his last start in Seattle he gave up 10 hits in 6 innings. If he's that hittable against the Angels, they will definitely take more advantage and put up more than 3 unearned runs. I'll take my chances with the road favorite here. 1.20 units to win 1.
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Have a bunch of leans but have to take care of a few things. Will be back later this morning.

Agreed. The Royals bats are still in a major funk. And if Weaver is back to the form of last year... watch out. I have been very impressed with Meche in his outings so far this year. I think he has risen to the occasion every time he faces a good pitcher. Doesn't always win the game, but usually gives the royals a chance with 7+ innings pitched and 2.18 era. He did scatter 10 hits through 6 last time out vs. Seattle, but hard to say if his focus wasn't lost a bit after the Royals pounded brother Weaver and had a large, comfortable lead. Probably will take a shot at the under. GL.

rouxdogg said:

Agreed. The Royals bats are still in a major funk. And if Weaver is back to the form of last year... watch out. I have been very impressed with Meche in his outings so far this year. I think he has risen to the occasion every time he faces a good pitcher. Doesn't always win the game, but usually gives the royals a chance with 7+ innings pitched and 2.18 era. He did scatter 10 hits through 6 last time out vs. Seattle, but hard to say if his focus wasn't lost a bit after the Royals pounded brother Weaver and had a large, comfortable lead. Probably will take a shot at the under. GL.

Click to expand...

Thanks. Always appreciate your input on KC games or otherwise. You seem to know the Royals pretty well and were right about yesterday's game (although I think taking the Royals 1st 5 may have lost). The under looks like a solid play, even though I generally don't do totals in baseball. I don't really see the Royals young offense exploding against a pitcher with stuff as nasty as Weaver's. And Meche is always pretty reliable at home. But you really never know when this Angels offense is going to explode for 7 or 8 runs. And KC's pen doesn't exactly give bettors much confidence. Anyway, BOL on your plays.

Cincinatti +122: The Astros are not playing good ball right now and I'll continue to roll the dice against Wandy Rodriguez, who has not won a game in his last 16 starts dating back to July 2, 2006. In 3 starts against the Reds, he's got a bulging 8.03 ERA. At very least, the Reds have shown that they can score some runs against weak pitching (see recent matchups against Maholm, Albers, etc.). Houston, on the other hand, is in a downward spiral and just can't seem to score runs these days no matter who's pitching.

Milton, although he doesn't have great stuff, has been slightly better than his 0-4 record this year. In 3 of those losses, he received a total of 5 runs to support him. I think this is a good price to look for him to get a bit more support this time around. 1 unit to win 1.22.

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Back later. BOL to everyone on today's card.

Jib,

Glad to see all three of us on the same side..If that isnt good karma I dont know what is.

I was leaning very strongly towards the Angels as well, but Meche scares me just a little too much. Ill be watching this one closely, best of luck!

Chase

w3rdy303 said:

Jib,

Glad to see all three of us on the same side..If that isnt good karma I dont know what is.

I was leaning very strongly towards the Angels as well, but Meche scares me just a little too much. Ill be watching this one closely, best of luck!

Chase

Click to expand...

Definitely good seeing some quality cappers on the same play(s) I'm on.

As for LA, Meche definitely scares me a bit, but he is literally the only thing I'm worried about in this game. He's KC's #1 guy, but he's no Cy Young. Just couldn't resist LA at that price and I don't see their offense getting completely shut down 2 days in a row by the Royals. As always, BOL.

Jibba, I see alot of us are on the same side as the Rays. Hope we all cash. Might tail you on SF as well.

Thanks and BOL Dsethi and DRays.

Adding one play for now:

NY Yankees -1.5, -124: As I've said all season, I prefer to stay away from run lines, but I think there's good value in this one. The Yankees come into today's game in a downspin. But I do not think it can continue much longer, especially in Texas where the Yanks have had a lot of success lately. NY has won 8 straight in Texas, and all but 2 of them were by 2 runs or more (all but 3 were by 3 runs or more). Nothing tells me that things will change today.

The Yankees send Pettitte to the hill today. Although he's had trouble pitching in Texas in the past, he'll be facing a weaker Rangers lineup than they had in years past. Also, the last time he faced Texas was in June, 2005, when he threw 9 innings while giving up only 1 ER. He'll be facing Mike Wood today, who was subbed in for the injured Millwood. While Wood has looked good in the minors this year, he will most definitely not be facing minor league hitters today. To the contrary, he'll be facing one of the best lineups I've ever seen. I'll bite on a run line for the second time this season. 1.24 units to win 1.

totally agree with ya on mets and cincy, think twinkies win tonight though gl

0-2 on the day so far. Definitely have hit a bit of a rough stretch but being up 28 units definitely helps so my confidence doesn't go. I don't want to start second guessing myself too much, but obviously was on the wrong side of both early games. Going to add some.

First, I've poured over these two all day, and I'm going to make the Giants and Mets 2 unit plays. I honestly haven't liked a single game as much as these two in 3 to 4 weeks, and back then I was working my way into 1.5 unit plays. I'm trying to discipline myself to be able to not always flat bet. So I'm officially adding 0.69 (-137) units to win 0.5 for a total of 2.78 units to win 2 on the Giants. I'm also adding 0.69 units (-137 also) to win 0.5 for a total of 2.7 units to win 2.

Adding two more:

Milwaukee -134: My instinct on this one was Pittsburgh. But after a good deal of thought, I think Milwaukee and Bush deserve a bit more respect the way they're playing. The Brewers are certainly a popular bet these days (although the same coule be said about Pittsburgh), but Bush's stock has dropped so much that the Brewers, IMO, are actually undervalued here. I don't doubt that Bush will turn it around and I think he gets it done tonight. In every area, the Brewers are just playing really good ball right now and I'm going to ride them out, especially at home.

Gorzellany is a hot name right now. Bettors are onto him and we're not likely to get that many good lines on him until he throws up a couple stinkers in a row. He did finally have a bad game in his last outing, but I think the line is still a bit off. 1.34 units to win 1.

Seattle +210: My first bet against Boston this year. I see no reason for a line this high. Dice-K hasn't been lights out and Seattle has already seen him. M's come into Fenway very hot and shouldn't be affected as much by the travel because they had a day game yesterday. Also, Drew is out of the lineup for the Sox. I'll throw half a unit on Horacio. 0.5 units to win 1.05.

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Final card:

LA Angels: 1.20 units to win 1.
NY Yankees -1.5: 1.24 units to win 1.
Tampa Bay: 1 unit to win 1.02.
Cincinatti: 1 unit to win 1.22.
San Francisco: 2.78 units to win 2.
NY Mets: 2.70 units to win 2.
Boston: 0.5 units to win 1.05.
Milwaukee: 1.34 units to win 1.



BOL to everyone on their cards tonight.