Favorites: 59-32 for +13.88 units
Underdogs: 20-11 +14.95 units
Total: 79-43 for +28.83 units
Run Lines: 0-1 -1.00 units
Well I fell under 30 units on ML plays last night. Really rough loss with the Twins, but at least Cleveland came through and the Giants came back to win it late. Like what I see of the card today so far.
NY Mets -134: The Mets haven't lost in Arizona since May, 2004. They've won 10 straight at Chase Field and the way Glavine has pitched against the D-Backs historically, they should make it 11 tonight. Glavine is 10-3 in 14 starts against Arizona, with a miniscule 2.27 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and a .219 BAA. And he's even better in Arizona, sporting an 8-1 record in 9 starts in Chase Field with a 1.37 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a .187 BAA. Additionally, May has always been Glavine's best month (55-31, 14 CGs, 3.54 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .244 BAA).
For the D-Backs, Micah Owings will be coming off the DL to pitch against one of the best offenses in the league and a very solid road team (9-3). Owings' outings thus far have lasted 5 innings, 6.1 innings, and 4 innings. I think that expecting him to last 6 coming off the DL is asking too much. And with an offense like the Mets', you always love getting to the bullpen. I really like the Mets to take this one easy. 2.01 units to win 1.5.
San Francisco -139: There is a big pitching mismatch in this one IMO. Eaton was a decent pitcher before his injury, but since coming back he has not shown good stuff. And going into San Fran, where the Giants have won 7 of their last 8 games, is not a good spot to try to get back on track. In 5 starts so far this year he's sporting a 7.71 ERA. With the way the Giants have been hitting lately, I think we can expect more of the same tonight.
The Giants send Matt Cain to the Hill tonight and he'll be looking to continue his streak of 4 straight games giving up 1 run or less. As if it isn't bad enough that the D-Backs are 25th in the league with a .245 batting average, they get to go against a pitcher with an amazing .109 BAA. Philly's offense has fizzled since heating up a couple weeks ago. Look for that to continue. 2.09 units to win 1.5.
Tampa Bay +102: I think the wrong team is favored here as James Shields continues to be overlooked and Ramon Ortiz continues to be overvalued. We all know he's not as good a pitcher as we've seen so far this year. He's not going to finish the year with an ERA under 3. Not even close. And I think this solid young D-Rays offense can help bring back the Ramon Ortiz of 2005, 5.57 ERA, .297 BAA, and all.
Just to throw out a few stats to show why I think Shields is underrated. In his last 2 starts, he's gone 16 innings while giving up only 6 hits and 3 ERs. In that span he's Kd 21 while walking only 2. On the season, teams are batting only .194 against him. He gives opposing hitters nothing. They have to earn every hit and every run. I like him to shut down an unpredictable Twins offense. 1 unit to win 1.02.
LA Angels -120: Don't have time to do a full writeup, but Weaver looked very good in his last start and the Royals offense doesn't terrify me. Meche is very solid at home, but it's not like he's blowing teams away. In his last start in Seattle he gave up 10 hits in 6 innings. If he's that hittable against the Angels, they will definitely take more advantage and put up more than 3 unearned runs. I'll take my chances with the road favorite here. 1.20 units to win 1.
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Have a bunch of leans but have to take care of a few things. Will be back later this morning.
Underdogs: 20-11 +14.95 units
Total: 79-43 for +28.83 units
Run Lines: 0-1 -1.00 units
Well I fell under 30 units on ML plays last night. Really rough loss with the Twins, but at least Cleveland came through and the Giants came back to win it late. Like what I see of the card today so far.
NY Mets -134: The Mets haven't lost in Arizona since May, 2004. They've won 10 straight at Chase Field and the way Glavine has pitched against the D-Backs historically, they should make it 11 tonight. Glavine is 10-3 in 14 starts against Arizona, with a miniscule 2.27 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP and a .219 BAA. And he's even better in Arizona, sporting an 8-1 record in 9 starts in Chase Field with a 1.37 ERA, a 0.91 WHIP, and a .187 BAA. Additionally, May has always been Glavine's best month (55-31, 14 CGs, 3.54 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and .244 BAA).
For the D-Backs, Micah Owings will be coming off the DL to pitch against one of the best offenses in the league and a very solid road team (9-3). Owings' outings thus far have lasted 5 innings, 6.1 innings, and 4 innings. I think that expecting him to last 6 coming off the DL is asking too much. And with an offense like the Mets', you always love getting to the bullpen. I really like the Mets to take this one easy. 2.01 units to win 1.5.
San Francisco -139: There is a big pitching mismatch in this one IMO. Eaton was a decent pitcher before his injury, but since coming back he has not shown good stuff. And going into San Fran, where the Giants have won 7 of their last 8 games, is not a good spot to try to get back on track. In 5 starts so far this year he's sporting a 7.71 ERA. With the way the Giants have been hitting lately, I think we can expect more of the same tonight.
The Giants send Matt Cain to the Hill tonight and he'll be looking to continue his streak of 4 straight games giving up 1 run or less. As if it isn't bad enough that the D-Backs are 25th in the league with a .245 batting average, they get to go against a pitcher with an amazing .109 BAA. Philly's offense has fizzled since heating up a couple weeks ago. Look for that to continue. 2.09 units to win 1.5.
Tampa Bay +102: I think the wrong team is favored here as James Shields continues to be overlooked and Ramon Ortiz continues to be overvalued. We all know he's not as good a pitcher as we've seen so far this year. He's not going to finish the year with an ERA under 3. Not even close. And I think this solid young D-Rays offense can help bring back the Ramon Ortiz of 2005, 5.57 ERA, .297 BAA, and all.
Just to throw out a few stats to show why I think Shields is underrated. In his last 2 starts, he's gone 16 innings while giving up only 6 hits and 3 ERs. In that span he's Kd 21 while walking only 2. On the season, teams are batting only .194 against him. He gives opposing hitters nothing. They have to earn every hit and every run. I like him to shut down an unpredictable Twins offense. 1 unit to win 1.02.
LA Angels -120: Don't have time to do a full writeup, but Weaver looked very good in his last start and the Royals offense doesn't terrify me. Meche is very solid at home, but it's not like he's blowing teams away. In his last start in Seattle he gave up 10 hits in 6 innings. If he's that hittable against the Angels, they will definitely take more advantage and put up more than 3 unearned runs. I'll take my chances with the road favorite here. 1.20 units to win 1.
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Have a bunch of leans but have to take care of a few things. Will be back later this morning.