I may add later.
Yankees @ Rangers Game 1
Play: Rangers +158 Game 1
Intrinsic Value: +110
Consider Betting Price: +136
Comment:
Although I prefer fading an overrated Rangers team, this line is terribly inflated. Petite has never been nearly as effective throughout his career in road starts, and has never had success pitching to the Rangers. He comes into today’s game with a career ERA approaching six against the Rangers, and there has not been a park in baseball in which has given him more problems, as he has allowed over a run an inning lifetime in this park. It is no surprise that the key hitters on the Rangers have dominated him in the past, and he will have to face a couple of role players with past success against him as well. I have been saying all year that the Rangers have one of the most overrated lineups in baseball, and so far they have shown that to be the case. However, I have also said that they are a much more dangerous lineup at home and match up better against left handed pitching, which so far has been the case as well. Pettite is backed by a bullpen with their fair share of holes, and Torre may be forced to hang with Pettite more than he would like, as playing a double header (with a starting pitcher fresh off the DL in game 2) will force him to conserve his bullpen in game 1.
I have made some money going against Millwood this year, as linesmakers have been stubborn in adjusting his line and had continued to price him as a Group B pitcher, which he no longer belongs. Three sub par outings in a row has finally forced books to adjust, and have now over adjust to where Millwood is now coming with value. Although Millwood does not have the most impressive numbers against the Yankees, he was able to put forth solid starts in both his outings against them last year. He has been hit or miss with the Yankees batters, yet has done a decent job keeping the ball in the park against the hitters he has struggled against. Also, most of the struggles against some of the hitters occurred in past years, while the success has occurred more recently. He is one of biggest workhorses in baseball that could avoid the underbelly of the Rangers bullpen that will be overmatched by this Yankees lineup.
Yankees @ Rangers Game 1
Play: Rangers +158 Game 1
Intrinsic Value: +110
Consider Betting Price: +136
Comment:
Although I prefer fading an overrated Rangers team, this line is terribly inflated. Petite has never been nearly as effective throughout his career in road starts, and has never had success pitching to the Rangers. He comes into today’s game with a career ERA approaching six against the Rangers, and there has not been a park in baseball in which has given him more problems, as he has allowed over a run an inning lifetime in this park. It is no surprise that the key hitters on the Rangers have dominated him in the past, and he will have to face a couple of role players with past success against him as well. I have been saying all year that the Rangers have one of the most overrated lineups in baseball, and so far they have shown that to be the case. However, I have also said that they are a much more dangerous lineup at home and match up better against left handed pitching, which so far has been the case as well. Pettite is backed by a bullpen with their fair share of holes, and Torre may be forced to hang with Pettite more than he would like, as playing a double header (with a starting pitcher fresh off the DL in game 2) will force him to conserve his bullpen in game 1.
I have made some money going against Millwood this year, as linesmakers have been stubborn in adjusting his line and had continued to price him as a Group B pitcher, which he no longer belongs. Three sub par outings in a row has finally forced books to adjust, and have now over adjust to where Millwood is now coming with value. Although Millwood does not have the most impressive numbers against the Yankees, he was able to put forth solid starts in both his outings against them last year. He has been hit or miss with the Yankees batters, yet has done a decent job keeping the ball in the park against the hitters he has struggled against. Also, most of the struggles against some of the hitters occurred in past years, while the success has occurred more recently. He is one of biggest workhorses in baseball that could avoid the underbelly of the Rangers bullpen that will be overmatched by this Yankees lineup.
