ATP Picks 5-3-07 (52-39-2) +$938

ATP · May 3, 2007

1. Cincy +117

Its not everyday that I think Eric Milton is the guy to bet on, actually never until today. The reds found a team that is completly pitiful against lefties in the houston astros, who right now are terrible against everyone, so I wont let the 4-7 record for cincy vs lefties sway me in comparison to houston's 1-7 mark. Almost thought about the under in this game but I do not trust either of these pitchers to deliver whatsoever, seems like cincy is the better team right now. I believe that gorzellany and maholm of pittsburgh are both lefties, could be wrong on that but if they are cincy slugged out 9 and 8 runs respectively in those games while houston is having trouble just to get three runs across against anyone. Over their last 5 save the 10 run outburst vs the brew crew they only had 3, 2, 1, and 1 run in those games, not enough to win this game especially with wandy rodriguez on the mound. Both pitchers in this game are winless with 4+ ERA's but Milton hasnt faced this team in 2 years while Wandy had one outing vs cincy last season, one to forget going one inning giving up 7 ER and walking 5, probably concerend with the likes of Griffey, Dunn and company. Houston is 2-9 SU over their last 11 and are not worth being a favorite in this game 6-8 as a fav, and 5-8 at home.

100/117

ATP · May 3, 2007

2. Boston -1.5 -120

Dice-kay finally gets back to an offense he can handle after back to back starts vs the yanks he gets a team though they did beat him earlier in the season and were able to put up some hits he held them to three runs and should have won were it not for the spectacular effort of Felix Hernandez. Seattle has won 7 of its last 8 but the majority of those games were at home against the likes of KC and the slumbering whitesox, now they go cross country to face a red hot boston team that is starting to bring the lumber with their pitching. Only 12-8 vs righties but they they have been lighting up lefties at 5-1 and Horacio Ramirez is not one of the better lefties in the league. Seattle's road scoring is miserable at 3.5 while Boston scores nearly 6.5 runs per game at home. -235 is a tough # to take so Ill look for Boston to score enough and let Dice Kay silense Seattle with the run and half line.

120/100

ATP · May 3, 2007

3. Minnesota -103

This game is looking more and more like my big play for the day, even with Joe Nathan blowing that lead last night vs these guys Ill go right back to the well. Minnesota has been playing well and are 10-5 vs righties while TB is 7-12. Ive noticed a pattern with these two teams playing each other. They have played 6 games this year with the loser coming back to win the next game each time, for what its worth minnesota lost last night. Shields has been good at 2-0 with a 3.75 era but Ortiz has been amazingly good for the twinkies at 3-1 with a pedestrian 2.5 ERA. Shields has had one start vs the twins going 4 innings and giving up 5 runs while Ortiz lifetime had one horrible outing where he only went one inning and gave up 6 runs but over his other 4 starts vs tampa he has gone 30 innings and given up 3 runs, Ill take the chance that he will control this lineup rather than get pummeled. Technically as of right now Minn is the dog in this game at -103 and they are 4-3 in that department and a very acceptable 8-5 on the road. Losses like last night piss teams off and they usually come out and win next time out. Overall it looks like Tampas home pitching is seriously worse than Minnesotas road pitching making the Twins the play.

206/200

ATP · May 3, 2007

4. Pitt/Brewers OVER 8 EVEN

Ill give credit to Gorzellany he had been very very good this season up until his last start vs Cincy where he got rocked and Dave Bush has shown the ability to get rocked as well. Over these pitchers last 6 starts the over is 4-2. This isnt the same typical Pirates team that never scores, their road offense isnt great but they do average 4 runs a game while the brewers absolutly light up the board at miller park at 18-9, these brewers score nearly 6 runs per game at home, 3/4's of the total needed tonight. These pitchers have only face the opponent 3 times put together and though they pitched decent the opposing team won all three of those starts. The total has gone over at the brewers park 9 of the last 12 games and 4 of the last 5 times when playing pittsburgh. The total has gone over 5 games in row for pittsburgh when playing on the road. It seems that the brewers are so hot that they can score on anyone so if Pitt can manage 2 or 3 runs at least the brewers should handle the rest of the load.

100/100

ATP · May 3, 2007

5. METS -143

Ive been trying to talk myself out of the Mets tonight but there is no possible way not to use this team tonight, everything adds up to a mets win. Glavine has been studly this season going 3-1 with a 2.8 ERA and the Mets score a ton of runs everytime he pitches and you get a consistant 6 innings out of him all the time, while Owings is just coming off the DL, though he has been good I cant think that he will be pushed deep into a contest this early vs a team like NY so we may get a lot of the zona bullpen tonight. The mets have won 9 of the last 10 in this series and 5 in a row when playing at arizona. Ill give you the fact that zona has won 5 straight games at home right now but this mets team will end that tonight, while sluggish at home the mets are 9-3 away from Shea. I look at glavines starts vs zona since '02 he has gone 4-1 pitching 35 innings and giving up 7ER. The mets score 6 runs per game on the road and zona only scores 4 at home relying mainly on pitching, which shouldnt be enough vs this mets team that is starting to see David wright get out of his slump.

143/100

ATP · May 3, 2007

6. 3-team parlay, Mets -144, OVER 8 Pittsb EVEN, Boston -240

50/190

ATP · May 3, 2007

7. Texas GM 2 +136

Just going on the fact that most home teams do not lose both games in day night double-headers. Not going to go in depth in stats, other than Im thinking this is Mussina's first start of the DL and he probably wont go deep in this, with Vizcaino and Rivera pitching in GM1 Im not sure they could come back for game two and be effective, which means a lot of that other yankee pen that is dreadful. Pettitte to Mussina is night and day in styles and Texas prefers hitting righties, given that posada caught the first game and giambi seemed to be laboring in the 8th inning they may be a little light on the bats in this game and Texas dropped both of the first two in the series, so Ill take a stab at Texas here.

50/68

ATP Picks 5-3-07 (52-39-2) +$938

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