Jibba's Fri MLB

Favorites: 60-35 for +10.56 units
Underdogs: 21-12 +14.47 units
Total: 81-47 for +25.03 units

Run Lines: 0-2 -2.24 units

Well it was another really tough day yesterday. But I still feel like half or so of my losing plays had solid value. Cincinatti had the lead late and blew it. Seattle jumped out to a 5-0 as 2-1 dogs and blew it. San Fran I'd bet again in a second with the same matchup. I don't expect to see Cain shelled like that very often this season, especially at home. Really going to bust my ass to put up a winning day today.

I also want to thank the posters here on the Rx. My last 2 losing days I've followed cappers on a couple MLB and NBA games and you guys have kept me treading water while I get rid of the kinks in my own MLB capping. So for that, thank you. On to the plays. Still have a lot of work to do on most, but these ones stuck out to me.

Oakland -129: I understand that Oakland's already weak offense is definitely going to feel Piazza's absence, but I have to take the pitching mismatch here. Oakland's pitching staff is at or near the top of the ranks in the AL so far this year. And they send their ace to the hill tonight. After a somewhat slow start, Haren is really starting to heat up, having one his last 3 starts (and allowing 4 ERs during the 21.1 IP span). Haren is 4-1 in his career against TB with a 2.48 ERA, a 0.88 WHIP, and a .226 BAA.

The D-Rays send Casey Fossum to the mound tonight. Fossum was roughed up badly by this Oakland offense in his last performance. In his last 2 starts against the A's, he's given up 14 runs in 6.2 IPs. This Oakland team hits him pretty well and I look for Tampa's winning streak to end tonight at home. I had Oakland at -175 to -180 before factoring in the injury to Piazza. So I still see a lot of value at this price. 1.29 units to win 1.

LA Angels -138: The Angels have been very tough at home this year, going 11-3 so far. And they send Kelvim Escobar to the mound for his second straight start against what is the worst offense in the majors right now. In that game, Escobar put up 7.2 solid innings, allowing only 4 hits and 2 ERs. While Escobar's history against Chicago may make some nervous, we have to remember that this is not the offense he's faced in the past, as we saw last week. I had this game capped at -155 to -160. 1.38 units to win 1.

San Francisco +101: Even with last night's home loss, the Giants are still playing very solid ball at home (winning 6 of their last 8 I believe). Matt Morris, who I still have reservations about, has also looked pretty good at home, allowing only 2 ERs in 12.2 innings at AT&T Park. In his career, he's actually a very solid home starter, going 64-38 with a 3.40 ERA, a 1.22 WHIP, and a .251 BAA. Coming off his worst performance of the year, I look for him to bounce back with a quality start tonight.

On the other side, we have Jamie Moyer, who has also overperformed a bit this year. I just don't see a reason for him to be favored in San Francisco, seeing as how the Phillies are one of the most inconsistent teams thus far this season. Bonds his hitting only .229 against Moyer, but in 35 ABs, he's got 5 HRs. Omar Vizquel has also hit Moyer well, batting .375 in 56 ABs against against the leftie. And speaking of lefties, San Fran has hit lefties pretty well so far this year with a .457 SLG (8th), a .807 OPS (9th), and a .273 BA (11th). I had the Giants favored in this one at about -130 to -135. 1 unit to win 1.01.

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I also currently have leans on Washington, LAD, Milwaukee, NYM, Seattle, and Cleveland. Still have to dig through those ones more though. BOL to everyone today.

I sure hope these are better than yesterday.
GL

sooner said:

I sure hope these are better than yesterday.
GL

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I hope every day is better than the last. But especially this one, since yesterday may have been my worst day this season. BOL.

Good luck with your plays Jibba. My Toronto play didn't work out yesterday. Stairs playing for Wells certainly didn't help. Live for another day -- today.

The Poet

Love the Oakland play. Good luck Jibba!

The Poet said:

Good luck with your plays Jibba. My Toronto play didn't work out yesterday. Stairs playing for Wells certainly didn't help. Live for another day -- today.

The Poet

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Wells was definitely big. Had looked hard at that game, but when I saw the lineup I decided to stay away. Still was solid value considering the game could have gone either way. Same with my Seattle play. I'll take a big dog almost any day if I know they're going to be tied late. BOL to you today.

mhf109b, glad to hear you like the Oakland pick bro. Going to add:

LA Dodgers +150: In a matchup of 2 first place teams, we should not have a line this high. The Dodgers have been very solid on the road this year (9-4) and although I'm not huge on Tomko, you can't argue with his results so far. He has yet to give up more than 3 ERs so far in his 4 starts. I don't expect the world from him tonight, but I don't think the first place Dodgers should be getting this little respect. Additionally, Atlanta's offense has really impressed me this year, but they've actually been much better on the road than at home (.253 at home v. .279 on the road). I hope that trend continues tonight.

Smoltz is pitching for the Braves tonight. It's never a great idea to go against Smoltz at home, but at this price I have to. Although he's done well historically against the Dodgers, last year he was knocked around a bit by LA in his only start against them. Plus, he'll have the rookie catcher in there tonight, and although he's an old vet, it's certainly possible they'll have some adjustment problems. Smoltz hasn't pitched to anyone but McCann this year so far. 1 unit to win 1.50.

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At this point I'm pretty certain I'll be on the Nats this afternoon and am waiting to see where this line eventually ends up (currently at +216). I'm also close to plays on Cleveland, Seattle, Detroit and NYM. BOL guys. Be back in a bit.

Cleveland +119: I have to jump on this now, as the line seems to be dropping. Originally I was skeptical of going against Bedard, but so far this year he just hasn't been the pitcher a lot of people expected. And if you ever had a situation of 2 teams going in different directions, this is it. The Tribe have won 4 straight and 10 of 11. The O's have lost 4 straight and 9 of 10. During that span, Baltimore has been outscored 52-32 and are hitting only .230. Cleveland's offense, on the other hand, is really clicking right now. They've scored 5 or more runs in 11 of their last 12 games (4 runs in the other game).

As much talent as I think Bedard has, I just can't see him shutting the Indians down the way they're playing. And considering how Baltimore's offense has looked lately, I think Byrd could have a good deal of success. If nothing else, Byrd is a consistently middle-of-the-pack starter. That's more than Cleveland should need to keep the O's bats silent. I had Cleveland as pretty much even money originally, and after some digging ended up with them as a slight favorite. 1 unit to win 1.19.

Seattle +172: Another game where I thought I'd be able to get a better line as the day went on. Similar to last night's game, I just don't see a reason for such a high line. The M's are playing really solid ball right now. Since their 6 game losing streak, they've won 7 of their last 9. While it's tough taking a young guy like Baek against the Yanks' offense, I think odds like this warrant it. And it's not like NY is hitting the cover off the ball these days. I know that offense will come around, but when?

So far, Igawa has been hit or miss with his best performance coming in relief. I just can't see a guy with an ERA over 6 (even after his 0 ERs in 6 IPs in his last outing) being this big of a favorite against a team that is playing as well as Seattle. I had this one capped at NYY -135 to -140. 1 unit to win 1.72.

Washington +210: I missed out on a little value by waiting too long, but this is still a solid price. The Cubs are becoming a popular play again after winning 5 of 6. But this price is just too high IMO. Bergmann is not getting any credit this year, and while he may not be as good as his stats would have us believe, you can't argue with results. So far this year he's shut down the Mets (7 innings, 2 hits, 1 ER, 6 Ks), the Phillies twice (12.1 innings, 8 hits, 4 ERs, 11 Ks), and the Braves (6 innings, 1 hit, 0 ERs, 8 Ks). Those are some rock solid offenses. And what has Zambrano done so far? The guy is a great pitcher, but he's in a funk this year, even after his best start of the year over the weekend. In his only 2 home starts, he's put up a 7.71 ERA. And it's not like the Cubs team as a whole has played well at home this year, going 4-9 thus far. I had this one capped at -170 to -180 and wish I had taken the bigger line while available, but I think there's still value here. 1 unit to win 2.10.

NY Mets -118: This line is 100% about Randy. The public can't wait to see old Randy pitch a doozie. But they'll be waiting awhile longer, especially facing this Mets offense. Maine has been lights out for NY so far and I'm going to make the 43 year old Randy prove that he's still got a little gas in the tank. I had this one at about -140 and was hoping I could get it closer to -110, but I'm still happy taking the 25 year old over the 43 year old at this price. And by the way, Maine's B-Day is in 3 or 4 days, although that doesn't really factor in at all. 1.18 units to win 1.

Detroit -149: I was really hoping this would fall under 150 and it finally did. I see no reason why Verlander won't continue to dominate the Royals tonight. The Tigers have really started coming around and have won 4 straight. Their bats are slowly coming alive, especially Shef, and they get to face a team they've performed well against tonight. Verlander has had some tough luck this year, but over his career he's 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA in 5 starts against KC. And he's looked very solid in 2 starts against them already this year. I think this is a great bounce back spot for him after a rough outing over the weekend. And I expect the Tigers offense to put up a nice performance against Bannister, who has not had good stuff so far this year. I had this one at about -160 to -165 before seeing Verlander's career stats against KC. That bumped it just enough to make it a play. 1.49 units to win 1.

Jason Bergmann is tied for the league lead in quality of batters faced. (The OPS of your opponents throughout the season).

gl Jibba....

i'm on 2 of yours, OAK, DET.....

gl,mudder

Dsethi,

Definitely didn't like seeing that I was against one of your 2* plays. Don't go messing with success on my part though bro.

Capn,

Thanks for the info. I knew he had faced some very tough competition but didn't know it was that tough.

mudder,

Good to see you on them. Looks like you've been pretty consistent so far this year and hope it sticks.

Jib,

On Minnesota and Cincinnati tonight...Just about the only games you dont have a play on ...Good Luck tonight. Nothin wrong with a little slump, I know them all too well.. Itll turn around.

Cheers.

w3rdy303 said:

Jib,

On Minnesota and Cincinnati tonight...Just about the only games you dont have a play on ...Good Luck tonight. Nothin wrong with a little slump, I know them all too well.. Itll turn around.

Cheers.

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Yeah. Generally play a lot of games but gotta go with what works. Every time I try to just go with my strong plays, or start playing, for example, 1, 2, and 3 unit plays, I end up falling backwards. So I'm going to go back to what has worked for me, flat betting every game where I see value. Probably makes some of the pros cringe a bit, but gotta do what works for me. Still a work in progress.

Minnesota seems like a solid play but be careful of Wake. He's been very solid against the Twins. I had a lean toward Colorado but just don't see enough value. Rockies are not good on the road, although I do like Hirsh in that matchup. BOL though.

Jibba said:

Washington +210: I missed out on a little value by waiting too long, but this is still a solid price. The Cubs are becoming a popular play again after winning 5 of 6. But this price is just too high IMO. Bergmann is not getting any credit this year, and while he may not be as good as his stats would have us believe, you can't argue with results. So far this year he's shut down the Mets (7 innings, 2 hits, 1 ER, 6 Ks), the Phillies twice (12.1 innings, 8 hits, 4 ERs, 11 Ks), and the Braves (6 innings, 1 hit, 0 ERs, 8 Ks). Those are some rock solid offenses. And what has Zambrano done so far? The guy is a great pitcher, but he's in a funk this year, even after his best start of the year over the weekend. In his only 2 home starts, he's put up a 7.71 ERA. And it's not like the Cubs team as a whole has played well at home this year, going 4-9 thus far. I had this one capped at -170 to -180 and wish I had taken the bigger line while available, but I think there's still value here. 1 unit to win 2.10.

NY Mets -118: This line is 100% about Randy. The public can't wait to see old Randy pitch a doozie. But they'll be waiting awhile longer, especially facing this Mets offense. Maine has been lights out for NY so far and I'm going to make the 43 year old Randy prove that he's still got a little gas in the tank. I had this one at about -140 and was hoping I could get it closer to -110, but I'm still happy taking the 25 year old over the 43 year old at this price. And by the way, Maine's B-Day is in 3 or 4 days, although that doesn't really factor in at all. 1.18 units to win 1.

Detroit -149: I was really hoping this would fall under 150 and it finally did. I see no reason why Verlander won't continue to dominate the Royals tonight. The Tigers have really started coming around and have won 4 straight. Their bats are slowly coming alive, especially Shef, and they get to face a team they've performed well against tonight. Verlander has had some tough luck this year, but over his career he's 4-0 with a 1.36 ERA in 5 starts against KC. And he's looked very solid in 2 starts against them already this year. I think this is a great bounce back spot for him after a rough outing over the weekend. And I expect the Tigers offense to put up a nice performance against Bannister, who has not had good stuff so far this year. I had this one at about -160 to -165 before seeing Verlander's career stats against KC. That bumped it just enough to make it a play. 1.49 units to win 1.

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Best of luck...

Hope you cash that Nat's play...

I know its early...but nice call.

TonyMar said:

Best of luck...

Hope you cash that Nat's play...

I know its early...but nice call.

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Thanks a lot man. Hope so too.

Dsethi,

Always good to be on the same page with ya.

You`re The Only Capper

that I follow that`s on the Indians, also most on Braves. I won`t go against Smoltz @ home. I`m loading up on Mets, may play RL too. Beware Cuddyer may be out tonite, he`s the fire in that lineup. BOL

silver7 said:

that I follow that`s on the Indians, also most on Braves. I won`t go against Smoltz @ home. I`m loading up on Mets, may play RL too. Beware Cuddyer may be out tonite, he`s the fire in that lineup. BOL

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Yeah, I noticed guys like BuffettGambler on the O's in this one. I may be way off, but I really think Cleveland should be favored in this one. Mets RL may be a good play if we see the ugly Randy again (well, he's always ugly, but his pitching that is). I also saw a few very solid cappers on the Braves. Would say I'm less confident in that one, but I guess that goes along with them being dogs at +150. You won't see me go against Smoltz at home very often this season. Just had to play it at those odds though because I think they're very live in this one.

Why the Cuddyer reference though? You mean Michael Cuddyer from the Twins right? Only play I have on that game is following Choptalk on the under. If Cuddyer is out then all the better.

i got back home about 10 min later than i thought and missed out taking the nats today. nice call jibba.