MLB: Friday May 4th Plays

buffettgambler · May 4, 2007

Indians @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -114
Intrinsic Value: -129
Consider Betting Price: -114
Comment:
There is no denying that the Indians are hot right now. But usually hot teams are overvalued teams, which is the case in this game. Bedard is quickly becoming out of favor, as three straight sub par outings has forced the public to shy away from him. However, he simply has too much good stuff to underachieve for long periods of time, and his high strike out rate during that stretch implies he still has the ability to fool hitters. He is also a much more effective pitcher at home, and has had solid success against the Indians throughout his career. He was one of the best home pitchers in baseball last year, and dominated left handed hitting, which does not bode well for a lineup loaded from the left side. He has had past success against a few key hitters in the lineup, and was able to strike out eleven of their hitters in his last start. He is backed by a solid, well rested bullpen that is much better than their counterparts.

Byrd will more than likely be unable to sustain this ERA, and his Whip and well hit ratio indicates such. Hitters have managed a .300 average against him this year, and sooner or later that will result in runs. Byrd has not had much success against this Orioles lineup in past years. His inability to pitch to left handed hitters could be a problem facing a lineup more than likely throwing five left handers at him. He is backed by a tired and not terribly talented bullpen.

buffettgambler · May 4, 2007

Dodgers @ Braves
Play: Braves -149
Intrinsic Value: -190
Consider Betting Price: -173
Comment:
I am surprised to see a popular team like the Braves trade for such a cheap price with Smoltz on the mound, but it appears are neglecting to account for Tomko consistently being one of the worst road pitchers in baseball throughout his career. Tomko consistently has put forth a high disparity of productivity when comparing his performances on the road and at home. He comes into today’s game with a career road ERA well over five, including horrific starts in this park, as he has allowed over a run an inning here. The Braves have dominated him throughout his career, and have a few hitters that fundamentally match up well with his pitching style. He has not been pitching as well as his ERA would indicate, as his WHIP is at dangerous levels, and has allowed a lot of well hit outs. The Dodgers front end bullpen is not terribly strong, and Tomko is not expected to go deep into this game. The Braves have one of the hottest lineups in baseball, and have always hit the ball well at home.

This is a good spot for Smoltz to bounce back from two straight outings in which he appeared to be very hittable. He seems to be getting progressively less effective pitching on the road as years go by, but continues to be rock solid in his home starts. This is his first home start in four starts, and is against a team that he has always had success against. Being one of the smartest pitchers in baseball, Smoltz always prefers pitching against lineups with veteran hitters in which he has a deep past history against, which is a variable that is in his favor in tonight’s game. It also happens to be a veteran lineup in which he has had past success against their hitters. Although the Braves bullpen is not as deep with Wickman on the DL, they have now become more reliable in the 9th inning. Smoltz is one of the best pitchers in going deep into game, countering the decrease in depth. The Dodgers lineup has not been hitting in the clutch in recent games, and have been struggling to score runs against mediocre pitching. They are not as dangerous on the road either.

buffettgambler · May 4, 2007

Pirates @ Brewers
Play: Pirates +150
Intrinsic Value: +104
Consider Betting Price: +124
Comment:
There might not be a “sexier” team in baseball right now for the public than the Brewers, as they really have a lot of people jumping on their bandwagon, allow value to be created on the other side. There is no fundamental reason for this game to be trading where it is, and it is purely a popularity contest. Vargas is off to a solid start this year, however, has only started one home game all year. Unlike most pitchers, Vargas has consistently been much worse pitching at home throughout his career. His career home ERA is an astonishing 5.59 as opposed to his road ERA in the low fours. He has also been allowing a lot of base runners, and has had some good luck on his side, getting out of a lot of bases loaded jams that will sooner or later catch up with him. Although he comes into today’s game with some impressive career numbers against the Pirates, they may lack sustainability, as he has struggled against a couple of key hitters and doesn’t necessarily match up well against this lineup as a whole. Vargas is not known to eat up innings, and is backed by a front end bullpen that has been overachieving of late.

This may be a good bounce back opportunity for Maholm, as he matches up well against this aggressive Brewers lineup. His finesse style of pitching could really take advantage of their lack of patience at the plate. He has put forth solid starts against the Brewers in the past, and has dominated left handed hitting throughout his young career, which is also a big asset against this lineup. He has had past success against a few key hitters, as Fielder, Hall and Weeks come into today’s game a combined 1 for 21, while Jenkins has yet to play a game in which he has started. He is backed by an underrated bullpen. The Brewers lineup has slowed down a bit in the last couple of games, scoring just six runs in that time frame.

buffettgambler · May 4, 2007

Tigers @ Royals
Play: Tigers -152
Intrinsic Value: -184
Consider Betting Price: -160
Comment:
It is not often that you will see a pitcher like Verlander undervalued against a team like the Royals, but it appears that two straight underdog home wins for the Royals has some created some public backing, as there has been a downward trend in price for the Tigers since the open. There hasn’t been a team in the league in which Verlander has had more success pitching against, as he comes into today’s game with a career 1.36 ERA and .171 OBA against the Royals. Throwing just 79 pitches in his last start should allow him to come into today’s game with a fresh arm. It is no surprise that he has dominated a few of their hitters in the limited at bats that he has faced them, and is a young pitcher that has not shown any concern pitching on the road. Being backed by the superior bullpen should give the Tigers a decisive advantage later in the game as well.

Although injuries have plagued his young career, Bannister has the potential to be a solid pitcher in the league. However, potential doesn’t necessarily cut it at the present, and his lack of command and consistency can make him a real liability on the mound. Bannister has yet to learn how to pitch effectively to left handed hitters, which is not a deficiency you want when facing a lineup this dangerous from the left side. He also has the propensity to accumulate a high pitch count early in games, which is not a deficiency you want when being backed by the worst bullpen in baseball. Being prone to a high walk total is not something you want going up against a lineup that can score in bunches. The Tigers are also a dangerous road team, as they have been more productive hitting on the road on a three year aggregate level, and have a pitcher that has shown no preference pitching at home or on the road with Verlander.

buffettgambler · May 4, 2007

Red Sox @ Twins
Play: Twins +110
Intrinsic Value: -152
Consider Betting Price: -137
Comment:
Once again the Red Sox are much overvalued, and are much less dangerous team on the road. This is a series in which home field advantage is magnified, as both teams are much more dangerous at home. The Twins have given the Red Sox problems in the past as well, winning seven of their last nine against them, including sweeping them at home last year. Wakefield’s knuckleball has been working well for him so far this year, but could implode without a moments notice. He did not appear to have a good feeling for the knuckle ball in his last start, where he walked six, which could be a sign of things to come. The Twins have a lineup filled with hitters that have not shown to have problems with this type of pitch. There also exists two hitters that have dominated Wakefield in the past. The Red Sox bullpen has been pitching well, but has been overachieving. The loss of Timlin should hurt their depth, which is concerning with Wakefield on the mound.

Silva seems to have bounced back well from last years woes, and is looking more and more like the pitcher of 05, where he quietly put up a dominating season. He has always been more effective pitching at home, and this year is no exception, as he comes into today’s game with a home ERA of 2.31. This appears to be a good opportunity for him to continue his upward trend, as he has dominated the Red Sox in his career, putting forth an ERA of 1.80 against them. He has had past success against a few of their hitters, including Manny, who is hitless in nine at bats, which bodes well, as he is starting to swing the bat well. Being backed by the best bullpen in baseball that rested their best pitchers in yesterday’s game should make it hard for the Red Sox to score throughout this game. The Red Sox have never been nearly as potent of a lineup away from home.

buffettgambler · May 4, 2007

Mets @ Diamdondbacks
Play: Mets -115
Intrinsic Value: -137
Consider Betting Price: -119
Comment:
I was actually expecting to get more value on the Mets in this game, but it appears that the public is quickly backing off of RJ. RJ is simply not the same pitcher he once was, and never will be. His velocity is down and command has gotten worse, and is no longer intimidating hitters on the mound. He is also not dominating left handed hitters like he used to, which does not bode well for his chances going up against this Mets lineup. This is also a lineup filled with hitters who have hit RJ well when he was a much more effective pitcher. Alou, Beltran, LoDucca, Reyes, and Wright have all hit him well in the past, which may simply be overwhelming for RJ at this point and time. The Mets are a more dangerous hitting team away from home, and are built well for this park. They should also overmatch the Dbacks bullpen who they match up well against.

Maine is no longer flying under the radar, but continues to come with some value. He is once again putting forth a really impressive season, as he comes into today’s game with a 1.35 ERA and a WHIP of 1.05. He has been nearly unhittable, and his only minor problem has been his lack of command at times, which is a deficiency that should be helped out by the lack of patience the Dbacks possess at the plate. He has dominated both right and left handed hitters, and has been the best road pitcher in baseball so far year to date, allowing only two runs in over 20 innings of work. Being backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball should make it hard for the Dbacks to score throughout this game.

buffettgambler · May 4, 2007

Phillies @ Giants
Play: Giants +106
Intrinsic Value: -129
Consider Betting Price: -116
Comment:
Although I feel that Morris is past his prime and has been overachieving a bit this year, he is still coming with some value in this game. What he continues to do consistently even in the latter stages of his career is put forth solid outings at home. Even during last years disappointing season, he was able to be a solid home pitcher, and this year appears to be the same thing, as he comes into today’s game with a home ERA in the one’s. Morris is also a pitcher that has not shown much of a difference pitching to left handed hitters as opposed to right handed hitters, which is an asset going up against a left handed dominated lineup. Morris has also dominated Rollins, who is currently the catalyst of their offense. This park also curtails the effect of the Phillies greatest asset, their power. Morris is one of the better pitchers in going deep into games, which is a big asset, as the Giants front end got a lot of work in yesterday’s game.

It seems like the public is getting a bit carried away with Moyer’s fast start, as he is just not going to become this much better at age 44. We are still dealing with a pitcher that has put forth a road ERA of 4.88 or higher in each of the past three years. He is also a pitcher that matches up better against the younger and less patient lineups in the league, which is simply not what he is going to face going up against this veteran Giants lineup. The Giants one and two hitters have owned Moyer, which should force him to pitch from the stretch against the heart of their lineup. Moyer is also a pitcher heavily dependent on the home plate umpires strike zone, as simply does not have the stuff to challenge hitters with. This does not bode well for his chances, as he is up against a small strike zone. If the Phillies have the lead in the 9th inning, they will once again be without their closer.

im2bz4yaa · May 4, 2007

GL Buff. Great season so far, let's keep it rolling.

Jibba · May 4, 2007

Great writeups as always BG. Sad to say I'm against you on the first two. Curious to know what effect, if any, Salty will have on Smoltz. McCann has caught every one of his games this year and at times pitchers have trouble adjusting. I imagine this is much less of a factor with a veteran like Smoltz, but it could still play a factor. As far as Cleveland goes, I just see those two teams going in completely opposite directions. Baltimore can't hit for squat lately, which is definitely going to help Byrd today. I just couldn't pass up getting Cleveland at +119.

Love the Giants today, will be on the Mets and probably the Tigers myself. Was nervous about that Pirates game as yesterday I made a big mistake in ignoring my gut and talking myself into a play on the Brewers. May just follow you on that one as you seem to have a good grasp on the Pirates so far this year. Can't go against my Sox two days in a row, but that seems like a decent play. Wake has been very solid against the Twins in the past though. BOL and thanks for the writeups.

buffettgambler · May 4, 2007

Thanks BZ.

Jibba,
I don't think McCann's absence will have much of an effect. The signals were being called from the dugout Wednesday with James on the mound, and we will see Smoltz call his own game tonight, which simply means a lot of shakeoffs.

I could see someone making a case for the Indians with the way they have been hitting and the way the O's have not. However, most of the O's hitting woes have been a product of being overpowered by the fastball, something Byrd does not have.

Good luck with your plays and keep up the great work.

OSUCOWBOYS · May 4, 2007

+1.00 Yesterday

+44.25 YTD

I feel like I got screwed yesterday only winning one unit. (HAHAHAHA!!!!)

Jibba · May 4, 2007

buffettgambler said:
Thanks BZ.

Jibba,
I don't think McCann's absence will have much of an effect. The signals were being called from the dugout Wednesday with James on the mound, and we will see Smoltz call his own game tonight, which simply means a lot of shakeoffs.

I could see someone making a case for the Indians with the way they have been hitting and the way the O's have not. However, most of the O's hitting woes have been a product of being overpowered by the fastball, something Byrd does not have.

Good luck with your plays and keep up the great work.

Thanks for the feedback. Didn't want to put too much stock in Salty being in there, but I did factor it in a bit. As for the O's, I think they have zero confidence right now. See the fastball point though. Anyway, BOL as always.

jpitten · May 4, 2007

First off, thanks so much for your picks. I've been tailing and doing well.

Second - I like the Phils tonight so no play for me but good luck on everything!!

Kegler · May 4, 2007

BG, I want to thank you for taking to time to post your picks and for including the great writeups. :thumbsup:

finman13 · May 4, 2007

nice work again buffett. with you on all tha games but the indians game. indians bats have awakened and i dont see a struggling bedard stopping them. i think i might be able to handle the orioles lineup right now. the lines on the tigers, mets and twins are horrible.

i hope people followed me with the warriors plus the points last night. also hit big on the series and the moneyline for the game last night. staying away from the nets game tonight. blowout a possibility, but joe public is all over the nets making the line to high for me. gl buffett, jibba and the rest. dont see any other lines id like to ask you about buffett.

Jibba · May 4, 2007

I was with you on the games last night fin. Saw you, OldManTed and Box on the Warriors so I decided to throw 1.5 units on in at like +105. Also followed Ted (and I think you had a lean) on Utah. These and one or two other follows kept my own bad day in bases from really affecting the BR at all. :toast:

finman13 · May 4, 2007

im glad you got on utah. i played them on an if bet warriors moneyline and cashed them wont count that though since i didnt actually post it here. 13-3-2 in the nba playoffs right now.

dont see anything i love right now of the posted games. i did envision a 7 game series with the home team winning each game in the houston series. moneyline a little high right now on the rockets. id like to get the rockets at -4 and buy down to -3 at -130. i doubt that will happen. if the line goes up to 6 i might buy the jazz at +7. i think this last game will be pretty close. jazz have had more opportunity to win at houston than vice versa.

totals are pretty sharp right now. if i were forced to pick id take the bulls and spurs in game 1, but will dig a little deeper. gl jibba

im2bz4yaa · May 4, 2007

OSUCOWBOYS said:
+1.00 Yesterday

+44.25 YTD

I feel like I got screwed yesterday only winning one unit. (HAHAHAHA!!!!)

Not trying to be technical and Buff knows I love him, but I think he was even yesterday, not +1.00. Doesn't really relatively matter since he's up 40+ units, just trying keep everything straight. Ignore this if I'm wrong.

GL

buffettgambler · May 4, 2007

im2bz4yaa said:
Not trying to be technical and Buff knows I love him, but I think he was even yesterday, not +1.00. Doesn't really relatively matter since he's up 40+ units, just trying keep everything straight. Ignore this if I'm wrong.

GL

BZ,
Thanks for the heads up, but my Rangers game 1 bet was cancelled as Millowood ( the listed pitcher) was a late scratch. I made a post prior to the game stating the cancellation of the bet, and I would be laying off that game.

Good luck tommorrow.