MLB FRIDAY PICKS (16-17-0 YTD -0.25 Units) With Writeup

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First, I want to give a shoutout to the Golden State Warriors for beating the Mavs last night. Truly one of the greatest games I've ever witnessed.

The D-Rays pulled out a convincing win yesterday against an overrated pitcher. Today's picks exhibit a similar trend with two strong home offenses against a couple of pitchers who've started the season playing a bit over their heads.

2007 RECORD:16-17-0 -0.25 Units

FRIDAY 5/4/2007: TWO PLAYS

Colorado Rockies (J. Hirsh) @ Cincinnati Reds (M. Belisle)
PLAY ON:<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003cb\>CINCINNATI\u003c/b\>\u003cb\> REDS (Moneyline, -125) \u003c/b\>\nTo Win 1 Unit\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>Boston\u003c/span\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\> Red Sox (T. Wakefield) @ Minnesota Twins (C. Silva)\u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>PLAY ON: \u003cb\>MINNESOTA\u003c/b\>\u003cb\> TWINS (Moneyline, +110) \u003c/b\>\nTo Win 1 Unit\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:9.5pt;font-family:Arial\"\>*\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cb\>\u003ci\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Reds Writeup\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/i\>\u003c/b\>\n\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cb\>\u003ci\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/i\>\u003c/b\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>With a 9-inning, 5-hit game at Pittsburgh in his last outing, Matt Belisle deserves some renewed attention. Tonight Belisle faces one of the weakest road offenses in the league, and while he has had his ups and downs, he should fare well in \nCincinnati tonight. The Rockies are coming off of a tough late-inning loss to the division rival Barry Zito. After a day off to relax, the Rockies now head to Cincinnati to face Matt Belisle. Whoop de doo. In my mind, there's no way that \nColorado comes into this game with any sort of focus or intent. Think about it. You're coming off of an extremely meaningful game against a division rivals number one starter, and now you have to go to Cincinnati and actually focus against a guy named Matt Belisle? I expect \nColorado to be swinging at bad pitches, and looking flat-out silly tonight. Fading a lackadaisical Rockies team on the road is a recipe for success. \u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>",1]);//--></SCRIPT> CINCINNATI REDS (Moneyline, -125) To Win 1 Unit

Boston Red Sox (T. Wakefield) @ Minnesota Twins (C. Silva)
PLAY ON: MINNESOTA TWINS (Moneyline, +110) To Win 1 Unit


Reds Writeup

With a 9-inning, 5-hit game at Pittsburgh in his last outing, Matt Belisle deserves some renewed attention. Tonight Belisle faces one of the weakest road offenses in the league, and while he has had his ups and downs, he should fare well in Cincinnati tonight. The Rockies are coming off of a tough late-inning loss to the division rival Barry Zito. After a day off to relax, the Rockies now head to Cincinnati to face Matt Belisle. Whoop de doo. In my mind, there's no way that Colorado comes into this game with any sort of focus or intent. Think about it. You're coming off of an extremely meaningful game against a division rivals number one starter, and now you have to go to Cincinnati and actually focus against a guy named Matt Belisle? I expect Colorado to be swinging at bad pitches, and looking flat-out silly tonight. Fading a lackadaisical Rockies team on the road is a recipe for success.
<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>On the other side of the ball is a hungry Reds team. They just got embarrassed in Houston by Wandy Rodriguez and have dropped their last two games. They finally get to come home after a nine-game road trip, and on a Friday night, the place should be rockin'. Tonight they get their chance to face a highly-touted rookie with a respectable ERA on their home field. Jason Hirsh may look good now, but his line after this game may look like something out of a baseball horror movie. In a start at \nCincinnati last year, Hirsh gave up 10 runs in 2 innings. While he isn't as vulnerable as he once was, Hirsh still walks a ton of batters. Against one of the most homerun-happy lineups in the league, Hirsh should be out of this game by the fifth inning. Then comes the \nRockies bullpen, need I say more?\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>If Belisle can handle his business, this game should be a rout. Facing an unmotivated Rockies road offense, I'll take my chances. \n\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cb\>\u003ci\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Twins Writeup\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/i\>\u003c/b\>\n\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cb\>\u003ci\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/i\>\u003c/b\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>I love this pick. It starts with an overrated Tim Wakefield who hasn't put up a sub-4 ERA season in four years. \nWakefield has been pitching out of his mind lately, but it ends tonight. He has tip-toed around disaster all season, walking six batters last game, and eleven in his last three games. Against one of the best home teams in baseball, \nWakefield should be in for some trouble tonight. Here are some batting averages against Wakefield: ",1]);//--></SCRIPT>
On the other side of the ball is a hungry Reds team. They just got embarrassed in Houston by Wandy Rodriguez and have dropped their last two games. They finally get to come home after a nine-game road trip, and on a Friday night, the place should be rockin'. Tonight they get their chance to face a highly-touted rookie with a respectable ERA on their home field. Jason Hirsh may look good now, but his line after this game may look like something out of a baseball horror movie. In a start at Cincinnati last year, Hirsh gave up 10 runs in 2 innings. While he isn't as vulnerable as he once was, Hirsh still walks a ton of batters. Against one of the most homerun-happy lineups in the league, Hirsh should be out of this game by the fifth inning. Then comes the Rockies bullpen, need I say more?

If Belisle can handle his business, this game should be a rout. Facing an unmotivated Rockies road offense, I'll take my chances.

Twins Writeup

I love this pick. It starts with an overrated Tim Wakefield who hasn't put up a sub-4 ERA season in four years. Wakefield has been pitching out of his mind lately, but it ends tonight. He has tip-toed around disaster all season, walking six batters last game, and eleven in his last three games. Against one of the best home teams in baseball, Wakefield should be in for some trouble tonight. Here are some batting averages against Wakefield:<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Torii Hunter .379\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Luis Castillo .529\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Joe Mauer: .600\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Justin Morneau: .600\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Jason Kubel: .333\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Jason Bartlett: .429\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/div\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>*\u003c/div\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Yes, I am leaving some players out, but that should make up about 2/3 of the Minnesota lineup tonight. Certainly a tough challenge when you're walking one batter every two innings. After a loss and a terrible offensive night against the D-Rays yesterday, the Twins should be thrilled to come home tonight and prove themselves against the Boston Red Sox. \n\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Last year, Carlos Silva was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Somehow, some way, he ended the season with 11 wins, but don't think for a second that \nBoston will show him any respect tonight. Despite his low ERA, Silva deserves to be laughed at for how bad he pitched in 2006. Following a thrilling comeback victory against the Mariners last night, the Sox should feel invincible coming into this game. They get to face a guy who gives up well over 1 hit per inning, and they have their best April pitcher on the mound. So, what's to worry about? The Sox should be swingin' for the fences against Silva tonight, and I fully expect them to come up empty. They have only been scoring \n",1]);//--></SCRIPT>

Torii Hunter .379
Luis Castillo .529
Joe Mauer: .600
Justin Morneau: .600
Jason Kubel: .333
Jason Bartlett: .429

Yes, I am leaving some players out, but that should make up about 2/3 of the Minnesota lineup tonight. Certainly a tough challenge when you're walking one batter every two innings. After a loss and a terrible offensive night against the D-Rays yesterday, the Twins should be thrilled to come home tonight and prove themselves against the Boston Red Sox.

Last year, Carlos Silva was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. Somehow, some way, he ended the season with 11 wins, but don't think for a second that Boston will show him any respect tonight. Despite his low ERA, Silva deserves to be laughed at for how bad he pitched in 2006. Following a thrilling comeback victory against the Mariners last night, the Sox should feel invincible coming into this game. They get to face a guy who gives up well over 1 hit per inning, and they have their best April pitcher on the mound. So, what's to worry about? The Sox should be swingin' for the fences against Silva tonight, and I fully expect them to come up empty. They have only been scoring<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","4.2 runs per game on the road this season, and Silva seems to be back to his successful ways. With a 5-1 record against Boston over the last three seasons, the Twins should take this one handily against a cocky and unfocused \nBoston team sittin' pretty atop the AL East.\u003cspan\>* \u003c/span\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cp style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>*\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/p\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Did I mention we're getting +110 on this game? This line is a flat-out steal. \u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/div\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>*\u003c/div\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Good Luck.\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/div\>",1]);//--></SCRIPT> 4.2 runs per game on the road this season, and Silva seems to be back to his successful ways. With a 5-1 record against Boston over the last three seasons, the Twins should take this one handily against a cocky and unfocused Boston team sittin' pretty atop the AL East.

Did I mention we're getting +110 on this game? This line is a flat-out steal.

Good Luck.
<SCRIPT><!--D(["mb","\u003cspan class\u003dsg\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>*\u003c/div\>\n\u003cdiv style\u003d\"margin:0in 0in 0pt\"\>\u003cspan style\u003d\"font-size:10pt\"\>\u003cfont face\u003d\"Times New Roman\"\>Chase\u003c/font\>\u003c/span\>\u003c/div\>\n\u003c/span\>",0]);D(["ce"]);//--></SCRIPT>
Chase
 

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Eventually people have to start noticing these great writeups. Maybe after tonight once you're back in the positive. You really put time into these and at least I appreciate it. I'm not on either one, and can't root against my Sox (although I finally bet against them last night), but as always BOL.
 

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good write-ups but have to disagree with you on the Reds play. Hirsh is just as good a young pitcher as Belisle (maybe even better), and it's tough to play the motivation card against a Rockies squad filled with youngsters that just don't take games off like certain veterans do. Rockies had a day off to clear their heads, they are last place in a very winnable division, 6 games back early.

Rockies haven't gotten anything going offensively on the road, agreed, but this is always subject to change. Also, Hirsh doesn't walk a ton of guys, he walked 4 against the Braves (who are one of the most walked teams in the MLB), but other than that he's right around 2 a game. Not great, not terrible.

GL on the plays, just unfortunately on the other side of that Rockies game, I really like their lineup and it's only a matter of time before Atkins and Hawpe get their offense going.


I would agree, Hirsh is definitely better than Belisle, but it comes down to mindset for me.. I think you're right that being a bad team, the Rockies take a lot less games lightly, but against another bad team, and an unknown pitcher following a huge game against Zito, I think this could be the spot.

Rockies on the road are always a tough card to play, but I think you'll take this one down if they're hyped up for Belisle. I just dont see it though.

GL
 

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Joined
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Eventually people have to start noticing these great writeups. Maybe after tonight once you're back in the positive. You really put time into these and at least I appreciate it. I'm not on either one, and can't root against my Sox (although I finally bet against them last night), but as always BOL.

Thanks Jib,

I could care less about my notoriety..Just want to get in the positive and stay there! Hopefully tonights the night.

Good luck
 

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