Service Selections For the KentucKy Derby

Bookie Buster · May 4, 2007

Service Selections For the KentucKy Derby(post here)
<HR style="COLOR: #fdde82" SIZE=1>Any Derby Selections from the cappers post here.....

Big Al <HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1>At 6 pm, in the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs (Race 10), our selection is on Hard Spun, and the recommendation is to wager on Hard Spun "across the board" -- that is, to Win, Place, and Show. Thus, if Hard Spun finishes "in the money", we'll make a profit.

In what has to be considered one of the most wide-open Kentucky Derby fields in recent memory, many stories have emerged covering the horses, trainers, jockeys, and even some owners. The past few years of the Derby and Triple Crown have given us some of the most exciting and memorable moments in sports. One story that has been lost somewhat has been the sudden success of some relatively unknown connections from the Mid-Atlantic part of the United States. In each of these years, these personalities were overshadowed by regally-bred horses, big-name trainers, popular jockeys, and billionaire owners. For example, three years ago it was little-known Philadelphia-based trainer John Servis and jockey Stewart Elliott who guided Smarty Jones to victories in the Derby and Preakness and within a breath of the Triple Crown. Then two years ago it was even lesser-known Delaware-based trainer Tim Richie and jockey Jeremy Rose who had by far the best horse in Afleet Alex who, although an unlucky third in the Derby, went on to crush his rivals in both the Preakness and Belmont before running away with the 3 year old title of 2005. Then last year it was another mid-atlantic trainer in Michael Matz who guided Barbaro to a smashing win in the Derby before the tragic breakdown in the Preakness. And Barbaro's jockey, Edgar Prado, has his roots in the mid-atlantic, having started out riding on the Maryland circuit for years before moving on to the big time tracks in New York, Kentucky, and Florida. Even as Barbaro fought for his life, he, Matz, Prado, and the owners (the Jacksons of Pennsylvania) dominated the horse racing headlines for the rest of the year. Big names such as Pletcher, Baffert, Lukas were nowhere to be seen as these relative unknowns stole the Derby and Triple Crown spotlight over the past 3 years.

So this year we turn to another group of relative unknowns from the mid-atlantic region in trainer Larry Jones, jockey Mario Pino, and a horse named Hard Spun. Jones and Pino may be strangers to the wise guys who follow the big time circuits of Kentucky, Florida, and California, but they are well known and well respected on the Maryland-Delaware circuit. Unlike Stewart Elliott and Jeremy Rose before him, Mario Pino is no youngster, and at 45 years old, he has been riding for almost two-thirds of his life and during that time has made 5,888 trips to the winner's circle, more than all but 15 other jockeys in history. So, just how good is their horse? In 6 lifetime starts, Hard Spun has done very little wrong, winning 5 times, including 2 graded stakes wins in the LeComte at Fair Grounds and in the Lanes End at Turfway Park, a race which he dominated and won easily. His running style in that last race is perfect for the Derby as a patient Pino need only to keep his mount close to the lead in a stalking position and stay out of trouble. And that is something that Pino has made a career of. Few jockeys these days know how to judge the pace of a race better than Pino and he will need to draw on all that experience this Saturday. Hard Spun has improved his performances in every race, something I love to see going into the first Saturday in May. And then on Wednesday, Jones and the owners of Hard Spun got what would seem to be the perfect post position for their horse - the #8 spot in the starting gate. With a questionable field around them, Jones, Pino, and a horse named Hard Spun seem destined to continue the trend of sucess for mid-atlantic connections in the Kentucky Derby; and at 15-1 (the morning line, which may or may not be the odds at post-time), I will be right there cheering them on and looking forward to collecting a nice fat reward in the process. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie

ATS Consultants <HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1>ATS Consultants Pick for the derby is

#8 Hard Spun

Doc has a selection in the Derby...... <HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1>18- Any given Saturday

and box it with the 16 and 7

Golden Contender

im not gonna bore everyone with long writeups on each horse- im going to do like i do evey year, im gonna throw horses out who dont match the criteria of a derby winner- THE FIRST IS THE FAVORITE CURLIN, DERBY FAVS RARELY WIN, AND YOU SHOULD BE LOOKING FOR A PRICE- HORSES WHO HAVENT RACED AS A 2 YEAROLD HAVENT WON S-1915- PLUS FAVS RARELY WIN- I WILL CONYTINUE TO UPDATE AS I THROW MORE HORSES OUT AND CAP THE PAST PERFORMANCES BOL GC-


ServiceKing
Breaking Down The Kentucky Derby Field <HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1>Kentucky Derby fever has reached its critical stage and the only cure is to take two aspirins and go to bed until Sunday morning.

Kentucky Derby
# Curlin draws No. 2 post
# Vogel: Catch Derby fever
# Klein: No sure bets
# $1M bonus for winner?

But why do that when Saturday's 133rd edition of America's greatest race gives us two brilliant colts in Curlin and Street Sense who will square off at Churchill Downs, not only against each other, but against long-standing ideas about where and when a horse needs to run to have him ready for 1 1/4 miles on the first Saturday of his 3-year-old year.

Right behind this pair are a host of talented runners, including five trained by Todd Pletcher, the Eclipse Award-winning conditioner still looking for his first Derby score. Many of them also are bucking old trends or looking to join new ones as they complete the myriad of routes that have brought them to Louisville.

Owners have reacted predictably, lining up to ensure that Churchill Downs' cut-off at 20 starters means exactly that number will run. For those with few horses in training, being a major player on the sport's biggest stage, surrounded by an ocean of 150,000 screaming fans and with a stake in what's rightly called "the most exciting two minutes in sports" is too much to resist. And for the movers and shakers in the sport's breeding industry, the wealth connected to a Derby winner is overpowering as well.

Soon, the desire to have a legitimate "Derby horse" gives way to desiring to have a horse in the Derby, regardless of how good his chances are, with the result being the annual mayhem of the first run past the stands. So let's give kudos to the connections of Cobalt Blue, Birdbirdistheword and Xchanger, three horses that qualified to run in the Derby but will not because, in their trainers' eyes, they had no chance to win.

Here is the field by post position with each horse's lifetime record (Starts-1st-2nd-3rd), jockey and morning-line odds:

# 1. Sedgefield 8-2-3-0 Julien Leparoux 50-1
If a horse making his first-ever start on a conventional dirt track is what you seek in the Derby, look no further. Most of his graded earnings came from his Polytrack races and the rest were garnered on the grass, making his Churchill Downs prospects most inscrutable. Sire Smart Strike is also Curlin's daddy, but this colt fits better in Friday's Crown Royal Turf.

Curlin is the morning line favorite, but history is not on his side. (Ed Reinke / FOXSports.com)

# 2. Curlin 3-3-0-0 Robby Albarado 7-2
He's the favorite despite the challenge of trying to win the Derby without a race at two, a feat last accomplished 125 years ago and the equivalent of leading a team to the NBA title in your first year out of high school. He's obviously loaded with talent, but the competition he's faced has been meager and his inside post means he'll have plenty of dirt and other horses to contend with. A tough road ahead of him but he may be the superstar that can pull it off.

# 3. Zanjero 8-2-2-3 Shaun Bridgmohan 30-1
Trainer Steve Asmussen's second starter and another with a win over the track, he had every chance to grab the Blue Grass after the rail opened wide but could not quicken sufficiently to get the job done. The son of Breeders' Cup Sprint winner Cherokee Run tries hard every time and should pass a few down the lane but even his best effort may not be good enough to hit the board.

# 4. Storm in May 13-4-2-6 Juan Leyva 30-1
The stronger half of trainer Bill Kaplan's unlikely two-horse Derby contingent, he was second in the Arkansas Derby but, in fact, was just another horse left in Curlin's wake. Second-place money was enough to get him here though he's actually more at home on the turf. He's been off the board just once in 13 starts, a stat certain to change for the negative on Saturday.

# 5. Imawildandcrazyguy 11-2-2-2 Mark Guidry 50-1
A non-threatening sixth in the Florida Derby, this gelding made the cut after two defections earlier in the week and if he wins on Saturday it will be his first stakes victory. "It's a once-in-a-lifetime thing for the owners," said Kaplan, "but this horse has tremendous cardiovascular capability and the 1 1/4-mile distance will be perfect for him." Name your price.

# 6. Cowtown Cat 7-4-0-1 Fernando Jara 20-1
Another Pletcher runner and the costliest auction purchase in the race at $1.5 million, he took the path of least resistance to Louisville — the Gotham Stakes and Illinois Derby — after showing significant improvement in Florida. Though he won both with authority and has been training well since, the suspect opposition of those races make his record look gaudier than it is. Outsider.

# 7. Street Sense 7-3-2-2 Calvin Borel 4-1
The curse of the Breeders' Cup Juvenile champ and doubts surrounding the effectiveness of a two-race campaign are his potential stumbling blocks, but he has impressed everyone all year and his trainer remains supremely confident in light of a week of dazzling workouts. If a horse is ever to break the BC spell, it's one returning to the scene of his 10-length romp last October. Looks hard to deny.

Poll

# 8. Hard Spun 6-5-0-0 Mario Pino 15-1
Hails from Smarty Jones country and the plan was to follow that Derby hero's route to Louisville. It changed when this son of Danzig showed a marked dislike for Oaklawn Park but he regrouped over Turfway's Polytrack and has worked sensationally — maybe too well — since arriving at Churchill. Questions aplenty about this colt whose flashy record lacks a win against a quality field.

# 9. Liquidity 7-1-2-1 David Flores 30-1
A member of the Paul Reddam trio of contenders with trainer Doug O'Neill that was reduced by one when Notional broke down, his star was bright after a solid second in the Sham Stakes followed a similar effort in the Hollywood Futurity. But subsequent dull races in New Orleans and Arcadia have dropped him off the charts. O'Neill has always spoken highly of him but he still hasn't won a race since his career debut last fall.

# 10. Teuflesberg 15-4-1-2 Stewart Elliott 30-1
He is the most experienced horse in the race with 15 starts — twice the average of the rest of the field — but was unable to hold the lead in the Blue Grass despite setting a tortoise-like pace. His speed will have him in the first flight down the backstretch but it is hard to see this non-winner of a graded race hanging on for even a small share.

# 11. Bwana Bull 9-4-2-1 Javier Castellano 50-1
Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer said the Santa Anita Derby would tell him what he needed to know about this colt but his owners evidently got a different message from his fifth-place finish. Ostensibly sent to Louisville for the Derby Trial, he was scratched after a poor draw. The good news is he ran a career-best 91 Beyer at Santa Anita; the bad news is that every other horse in the race has posted a higher number.

Wood Memorial winner Nobiz Like Shobiz expects big things at Churchill Downs. (Ed Betz / Associated Press)

# 12. Nobiz Like Shobiz 6-4-1-1 Cornelio Velasquez 8-1
It was love at first sight between Barclay Tagg and this colt and, despite his wandering ways in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, things have gone pretty much as planned for the pair. Funny Cide's trainer didn't come to Louisville until Wednesday — "I don't like to go down and mess around with that crowd," he said — but his consistent colt, who responded well to the addition of blinkers in the Wood Memorial, has the style and stamina to put him in position for a victory.

# 13. Sam P. 8-2-2-1 Ramon Dominguez 20-1
He is the least-fancied of the Pletcher quintet, having never won a stakes or a two-turn race but he had a very smart win over the Churchill strip as a 2-year-old, and his California form was encouraging. That may mean more about the quality of horses he faced there than his own improvement but it wouldn't surprise if he's in the first half-dozen finishers.

# 14. Scat Daddy 8-5-1-1 Edgar Prado 10-1
Thoughts that he was a miler were put to rest at Gulfstream Park with successive nine-furlong wins, including the Florida Derby in a time identical to Barbaro's last year — though over a slower track. He's coming into the race in the best shape of any of Pletcher's starters and, as was proven in 2006, a five-week break may be just the thing to give a horse the best chance of winning. Expect to hear his name called in the last furlong.

# 15. Tiago 4-2-0-1 Mike Smith 15-1
While others flaunt tradition, trainer John Shirreffs made sure to give this half-brother to 2004 Derby winner Giacomo a start before he turned three, saying, "I know all about the history." The colt looked like a poor relation until he stormed from behind to win the Santa Anita Derby and has held his form since. A horse with his pedigree and showing such marked improvement belongs on a few superfecta tickets at worse.

# 16. Circular Quay 7-4-2-0 John Velazquez 8-1
Another powerhouse from the Pletcher barn, his spring went astray almost from the get-go. Blocked by a fallen horse in the Risen Star, he rebounded in February's Louisiana Derby but was put on ice after his progress was deemed unsatisfactory. Pletcher, who has had great success with fresh horses, opted for the uncommon strategy of training him up to the Derby. It's a tall order but what a storybook way it would be to break his Derby drought.

Kentucky Derby field
# In post position order from the rail out: Sedgefield (Julien Leparoux, 50-1)
# Curlin (Robby Albarado, 7-2)
# Zanjero (Shaun Bridgmohan, 30-1)
# Storm in May (Juan Leyva, 30-1)
# Imawildandcrazyguy (M. Guidry, 50-1)
# Cowtown Cat (Fernando Jara, 20-1)
# Street Sense (Calvin Borel, 4-1)
# Hard Spun (Mario Pino, 15-1)
# Liquidity (David Flores, 30-1)
# Teuflesberg (Stewart Elliott, 30-1)
# Bwana Bull (Javier Castellano, 50-1)
# Nobiz Like Shobiz (C. Velasquez, 8-1)
# Sam P. (Ramon Dominguez, 20-1)
# Scat Daddy (Edgar Prado, 10-1)
# Tiago (Mike Smith, 15-1)
# Circular Quay (John Velazquez, 8-1)
# Stormello (Kent Desormeaux, 30-1)
# Any Given Saturday (G. Gomez, 12-1)
# Dominican (Rafael Bejarano, 20-1)
# Great Hunter (Corey Nakatani, 15-1)

# 17. Stormello 9-3-1-2 Kent Desormeaux 30-1
This fiery colt looked like a coming star until he showed signs of strain following a taxing spring that saw him twice fly cross-country to run in Florida. He's had five weeks to recover, will be reunited with main man Desormeaux and may set a more sensible pace since this field is wanting for speedballs. Staying the distance could be a problem but it's easy to see him with the leaders turning for home and getting a check is definitely within reason.

# 18. Any Given Saturday 6-3-2-1 Garrett Gomez 12-1
Starting out on the Tampa Bay Downs path like Pletcher's ace Bluegrass Cat last year, this colt disappointed in the Wood. Said the trainer, "He took the worst of it being wide around the turns but he really didn't polish it off in the last sixteenth of a mile. He will have to step up a notch to get it done." The flashy colt has trained well since and, after his big performance over the track as a 2-year-old last November, still must be given a chance.

# 19. Dominican 7-3-0-2 Rafael Bejarano 20-1
Is it real or is it Polytrack? The gelding's dramatic improvement this spring normally would have fans gushing his praises but a cautious approach is warranted because everything of note has come on the all-weather. That closing burst in the Blue Grass was mighty impressive but he's been just ordinary on dirt and it takes a leap of faith to see him duplicating the feat on Saturday.

# 20. Great Hunter 9-3-4-1 Corey Nakatani 15-1
The second Reddam entry and thought to be best of all O'Neill's Derby horses this winter, he was jostled around in the stretch run of the Blue Grass — just his second race of the year — but jockey Corey Nakatani didn't bother to claim foul because, he said, "I was beat." He still has his backers but no closing punch after a snail's pace is not a harbinger of success.

The Crystal Ball

In any race, especially one as taxing as the Kentucky Derby, the question of pace is an issue and it appears that this Derby, unlike most recent ones, lacks a horse like Sinister Minister, Spanish Chestnut or Songandaprayer, one that will take everyone along at a demanding clip.

That doesn't mean the race is likely to be stolen by a front-runner, since the vast majority of contenders don't utilize that style, but that a slower pace — 1:11 versus 1:09 and change, for example — will make it hard on the deep closers, or horses who find themselves shuffled back in the pack, to catch up to the leaders.

This puts a premium on racing luck, as always, and the best way to assure luck is going your way is to employ tactical speed to stay away from the bad-luck spots on the racetrack. Horses with this commodity are Nobiz Like Shobiz, Street Sense, Scat Daddy and Any Given Saturday. Cowtown Cat and Hard Spun also may vie for position in the second flight though the latter likely will be up with Teuflesberg and Stormello at the front.

I look for Street Sense to emerge from that group and, in his first start on the ground he relished last October, to put to rest a few Derby canards in the process. Nobiz and Scat Daddy will be on my exacta box ticket and Stormello and Tiago will be used in wider exotics.

As for Curlin, it will be a wonderful thing for racing if yet another exciting, undefeated horse emerges from the Derby and advances to the Triple Crown. But the obstacles he faces seem quite a bit more formidable and, coupled with his post position, look like too much to overcome. Of course, that should get him right into the winner's circle since last year I narrowed it down to Barbaro and Bob and John and chose the latter

Bookie Buster · May 4, 2007

hotbustop

KY Derby Info

>
>
> PP
HORSE JOCKEY
> TRAINER
ODDS
>
>
> 1. SEDGEFIELD
Leparoux
> Miller 50-1
>
> Positives: uh?
>
> can’t see Sedgefield getting evena piece of this Derby.
>
> 2.
CURLIN Albarado
> Asmussen
7/2
>
> Positives:
>
> Undefeated after three starts, he is the current darling of the
racing
> world. He won the Arkansas Derby like a good horse—sat comfortably
> behind a lone slow pacesetter, took control at will and drew off in
> good time. He can relax just off the lead and then kick. has run
Beyer
> speed figures over 100 in two of three starts. already won at a mile
> and one-eighth and the way he did it doesn’t give a good indication
of
> a mile and a quarter. trained by one of the top and ridden by a
> veteran jockey. is the 7/2 morning line choice. worked well in his
> final prep, but still an unknown.
>
> Negatives:
>
> He is bucking two very strong trends: 1. Since 1882, no horse has won
> the Kentucky Derby without first racing as a 2-year-old. 2. Since
> 1915, no horse has won the Kentucky Derby with fewer than four
> lifetime starts. probably will experience racing in traffic for the
> first time in his career against tough competition
>
> Analysis:
>
> If he wins the Derby off three prep races from the two-hole in a
> crowded, contentious field, he’ll prove he’s for real. beatable
> favorite
>
> 3. ZANJERO
Bridgmohan
> Asmussen 30-1
>
> Positives:
>
> Already beaten by street sense, Circular quay, and nobiz like shobiz;
> has a steady, closing style,will pick up some tired beatles late.
With
> only 2 wins in 8 starts, he’s out of his league.
>
> Negatives:
>
> See positives
>
> Analysis:
>
> Back to cheaper races where he belongs.
>
> 4. STORM IN MAY
Leyva
> Kaplan 30-1
>
> Positives:
>
> won 4 of 13 starts.
>
> Negatives:
>
> His trainer is 1 for 28 this year. Two of this horse’s four wins
have
> come on the turf. His biggest win came in a six-furlong sprint race.
> He has just one race with a Beyer over 90.
>
> Analysis:
>
> throw him out.
>
> 5. IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY Guidry
> Kaplan 50-1
>
> Positives:
>
> Lost to circular quay and scat daddy, but beat the bum zanjanero .
>
> Negatives:
>
> 2 wins in 11 starts—a maiden score and an optional claiming
> non-winners of two.
>
> Analysis:
>
> impossible
>
> 6. COWTOWN CAT
Jara
> Pletcher 20-1
>
> Positives:
>
> won 4 of 7 lifetime stars, including the Gotham at Aqueduct and the
> Illinois Derby at Hawthorne in his last two. Some early speed, may
> fight with curlin .
>
> Negatives:
>
> has not faced top competition. John Velasquez, Pletcher’s main
rider
> who has ridden ‘Cat in four of seven starts, elects to ride
Circular
> Quay in the Derby. Nuff said
>
> Analysis:
>
> will need to do better than he has in the past, not out of the
> question, but a stretch
>
> 7. STREET SENSE
Borel
> Nafzger
4-1
>
> Positives:
>
> 2-year-old Champ and winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile by 10
> lengths at Churchill Downs, only won 3 of 7 starts but never worse
> than third. has the highest Beyer in the field—108 in the Juvenile.
> has earned over $1.5 million. posted a great work at Churchill Downs
> the week before the Derby and followed that up with a nice
maintenance
> breeze.
>
> Negatives:
>
> enters the Derby off a nose defeat in the Blue Grass. In that race he
> spent some time ducking around in the stretch. not the best behavior
> for a horse heading toward Churchill Downs and a crowd of 150,000
> people. His closing style may be compromised in the large Derby
field.
> He’ll have to get lucky to find a way through the pile.
>
> Analysis:
>
> may not win, but the winner has to go through Street Sense to get
> there.
>
> 8. HARD
>
SPUN Pino Jones
> 15-1
>
> Positives:
>
> won 5 of 6 races, figures to be just off the early Derby pace before
> unleashing his best kick. hasn’t shown any inclination to fade in
the
> latter stages
>
> Negatives:
>
> has not faced top competition. Hasn’t raced since March 24 and that
> might be too long a layoff
>
> Analysis:
>
> Could be a longshot
>
> 9.
LIQUIDITY Flores
> O’Neill 30-1
>
> Positives:
>
> has registered a 102 Beyer at a mile and one-eighth has faced stakes
> competition--three Grade I appearances.
>
> Negatives:
>
> won only one race in seven starts. regular jockey Corey Nakatani has
> elected to ride Great Hunter
>
> Analysis:
>
> Not this time
>
> 10. TUEFLESBERG
Elliott
> Sanders 30-1
>
> Positives:
>
> He has more experience than any other Derby starter with 15 races.
>
> Negatives:
>
> has lost to Dominican, Curlin, Hard Spun, Street Sense, Great Hunter,
> Circular Quay, Zanjero and Scat Daddy, all of whom are in this race.
> has never won going further than one mile.
>
> Analysis:
>
> passing on this one.
>
> 11. BWANA
BULL Castellano
> Hollendorfer 50-1
>
> Positives: uh?
>
> Negatives:
>
> Too many too go into, lead pony has to slow down for him
>
> Analysis:
>
> Not a prayer
>
> 12. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ C. Velasquez

> Tagg 8-1
>
> Positives:
>
> won 4 of 6 races, one of the most consistent horses on the Triple
> Crown Trail this winter. has faced top-notch competition, including
> two Grade I races, and never has been worse than third. Blinkers and
> ear plugs added last time out and he won the Wood. His trainer won
the
> Derby with Funny Cide. Nobiz has won two of three starts at a mile
and
> one-eighth.
>
> Negatives:
>
> Horses who need blinkers and ear plugs for their best usually find
> tough sledding with the crowds and noise on Derby Day. never had a
> Beyer over 98. Scat Daddy holds a 2-1 advantage over him in
> head-to-head meetings
>
> Analysis:
>
> tough horse to throw out, but my feeling is that he will have a
> difficult time winning, but he sure could hit the board.
>
> 13. SAM
P. Dominguez
> Pletcher 20-1
>
> Positives:
>
> has a win over the Churchill Downs surface. Blinkers were added in
his
> last race
>
> Negatives:
>
> only 2 wins in 8 lifetime starts and beaten by both tiago and great
> hunter.
>
> Analysis:
>
> Another way to lose your poke
>
> 14. SCAT DADDY Prado

> Pletcher 10-1
>
> Positives:
>
> won 5 of 8 starts against top competition, including four Grade I
> races and two wins at that level. ridden by one of the top jocks
Edgar
> Prado (Prado won the Derby last year aboard Barbaro). won both of his
> races at one mile and one-eighth
>
> Negatives:
>
> never earned a Beyer figure over 98. has been beaten by Nobiz Like
> Shobiz, Street Sense, Circular Quay and Great Hunter. John
> Velasquez,the jockey for Scat Daddy in seven of his eight lifetime
> starts, is aboard Circular Quay
>
> Analysis:
>
> Count him in the mix will need more than his previous best
>
> 15. TIAGO
Smith
> Shirreffs
15-1
>
> Positives:
>
> same jockey/trainer/owner combination that brought you Giacomo two
> years ago, and this colt has the same dam; has won two of four
> lifetime starts and earned a 100 Beyer .
>
> Negatives:
>
> inexperience (four lifetime starts) a negative in a large field in
> front of a huge crowd;
>
> Analysis:
>
> Will lightning strike twice for the Giacomo crew? Not likely. But, it
> must be noted that Tiago did earn a 100 Beyer in the Santa Anita
Derby
> and figures to be closing in the lane.
>
> 16. CIRCULAR QUAY Velasquez

> Pletcher 8-1
>
> Positives:
>
> won 4 of 7 lifetime starts and over $1 million. ridden by one of the
> country’s top jocks John Velasquez; has faced top competition
> throughout his career. has a late-running style in a field of
> pace-pressing foes. He has won 2 of 3 starts at Churchill.
>
> Negatives:
>
> has not raced since March 10—an eight-week layoff. When Barbaro won
> last year’s Derby off a five-week layoff the experts were amazed.
> Circular Quay has never raced further than a mile and one-sixteenth,
> tough post position
>
> Analysis:
>
> has talent and figures off some of his best races. However, his
8-week
> layoff is a real concern
>
> 17. STORMELLO
Desormeaux
> Currin 30-1
>
> Positives:
>
> has a world of speed and should find himself on or near the lead in
> the Derby. He has Grade I and Grade II wins to his credit already and
> has won 3of 9 lifetime starts. has faced top competition this season.
> Also has been bet in the future book by that world-reknowned
> handicapper, Bruce Ambo
>
> Negatives:
>
> His early speed could result in a killer duel with curlin that could
> ruin it for both of them. Too many pace-pressing types are signed up
> this year to permit Stormello to steal such a lucrative prize without
> a big fight.
>
> Analysis:
>
> He’ll be around for a while. Kent Desormeaux will try to take
things
> as easy as possible early. If the rest of the field leaves him
> alone…nah, that can’t happen. Stormello is up against it any way
you
> look at it.
>
> 18. ANY GIVEN SATURDAY Gomez

> Pletcher 12-1
>
> Positives:
>
> has won three of six lifetime starts against mostly top-notch
> competition
>
> Negatives:
>
> Beaten by Nobiz Like Shobiz
>
> Analysis:
>
> a contender to win; Gomez will have this one a bit further back in
the
> early going. He should be able to make an early move that will put
him
> into contention turning for home but then he meets street sense.
>
> 19. DOMINICAN
Bejarano
> Miller 20-1
>
> Positives:
>
> has won both of his starts since having an un-descended testicle
> removed during the gelding process. Backstretch rumor is that the
> operation has immensely improved his stride since he can now run
> without discomfort. defeated 2-year-old Champ Street Sense in the
Blue
> Grass Stakes at Keeneland with a furious closing kick.
>
> Negatives:
>
> He has had only two prep races this year. The Blue Grass was a
‘funky’
> race whose outcome can be taken with a grain of salt. The field
walked
> early and sprinted home and most of the field was in the photo for
the
> win. Any Given Saturday and Zanjero, two entrants in the Derby have
> defeated him before, although Dominican did turn the tables on
Zanjero
> in the Blue Grass. He has never earned a Beyer speed figure over 95.
>
> Analysis:
>
> Did the gelding of Dominican turn him into a different horse?
>
> 20. GREAT HUNTER
Nakatani
> O’Neill 15-1
>
> Positives:
>
> defeated Street Sense and Circular Quay in the Breeders Futurity at
> Keeneland in October and got a Beyer of 101. has won over $750,000,
> most in Graded Stakes races
>
> Negatives:
>
> only had two prep races for the Derby; has more seconds than wins—4
to
> 3—and that’s not the pattern of a top horse.
>
> Analysis:
>
> will get merely hot and dirty on Saturday
>
>
________________________________________ _______________________________
> ________________________________________ ___________________
>
>
> Summary will take 103-106 Beyer to win (average Derby win is 108,
this
> is not a great field, even a bum could get up to win)
>
> Most Likely Winner: #7 Street Sense
>
> Chance to Upset: #14 Scat Daddy, #18 Any Given Saturday
>
> Others Worth Attention: #8 Hard Spun, #12 Nobiz Like Shobiz
>
> Worth Trying to Beat: #2 Curlin, #16 Circular quay

Bookie Buster · May 4, 2007

HRTV "Experts" Derby Picks

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Laffit- Any Given Saturday
Jon- Nobiz Like Showbiz
Peter- Scat Daddy
Joann- Curlin
Aaron- Street Sense
__________________

METFAN · May 4, 2007

Thank You Bookie Buster...i See My Final One For The 5 Way Box

Bookie Buster · May 4, 2007

METFAN said:
Thank You Bookie Buster...i See My Final One For The 5 Way Box

GL should be more to come.

sds23 · May 4, 2007

BB ~

When ever you get a chance, check out the Bases Service Play thread. I have a question for you after doing a W~L breakdown.

METFAN · May 5, 2007

I REALLY APPRECIATE YOUR FAST RESPONSES AND HARD WORK. I'D LIKE TO MAKE A $25 WAGER ON THE DERBY FOR YOU AND ANOTHER $25 FOR SDS. PLEASE LET ME KNOW HOW YOU GUYS WANT TO PLAY IT BY 1:00 EASTERN TIME. IF YOU WIN AND WANT TO SEE THE PAYOUT I'LL BE PLAYING THE BETS AT NASSAU DOWNS. THANKS AGAIN AND GOOD LUCK!!!:lol: :toast: :drink: :drink:

METFAN · May 5, 2007

I'm Playing $250 On The Derby...if You Guys Prefer You Can Have 10% Each On My Action.i'll Be Boxing 7.8,12,14 ,16 In The Exacta And Triple. 18 Makes Me Nervous So I'll Be Putting 10 To Win And Place On 18.undecided To Play Win Bets Or A Perfecta With The Rest.let Me Know

Bookie Buster · May 5, 2007

METFAN said:
I'm Playing $250 On The Derby...if You Guys Prefer You Can Have 10% Each On My Action.i'll Be Boxing 7.8,12,14 ,16 In The Exacta And Triple. 18 Makes Me Nervous So I'll Be Putting 10 To Win And Place On 18.undecided To Play Win Bets Or A Perfecta With The Rest.let Me Know

That is very nice of you, If I find any thing I like will let you know if not I will be routing for you.

I might be able to find something good by then and that is very nice of you to offer, you are a gentleman and a scholar.

GL today. :toast:

Bookie Buster · May 5, 2007

Wizard's Major Stakes for Saturday, May 5th, 2007
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1>Wizard's Major Stakes for Saturday, May 5th, 2007
Churchill Downs Race 10 - KENTUCKY DERBY

Churchill Downs Race 10 - KENTUCKY DERBY 1 1/4m Grade I 3yo, Purse: $2,000,000. Post Time: 6:04 ET

Race Synopsis
I have a very strong opinion that this year's Kentucky Derby boils down to Curlin and Street Sense. No one else in the field has impressed me enough to consider them above these two horses. Curlin will have first run on Street Sense who must catch him from behind. I can envision either of these two scenarios happening which could provide a very exciting finish. I am aware that both these horses are 1-2 in the morning line and deserve to be. Street Sense is a proven commodity while Curlin can be anything. Past history is against both horses as I will explain in my write-ups. Many people will throw both these horses out because of this fact. Barbaro overcame history, winning last years Derby off a layoff. Handicappers would throw out horses because they did not have the dosage. Times have changed as well as thoroughbred racing and breeding. This could be the year that proves that there are other more important factors in determining a Derby winner than history.
Visit the Wizard's new website at Wizardpicks where you can read the Wizard's ten rules of handicapping successfully, sample all products and read articles about the Wizard.

The Field from the rail out
# Name ML
1 SEDGEFIELD 50/1
2 CURLIN 7/2
3 ZANJERO 30/1
4 STORM IN MAY 30/1
5 IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY 50/1
6 COWTOWN CAT 20/1
7 STREET SENSE 4/1
8 HARD SPUN 15/1
9 LIQUIDITY 30/1
10 TEUFLESBERG 30/1
11 BWANA BULL 50/1
12 NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ 8/1
13 SAM P. 20/1
14 SCAT DADDY 10/1
15 TIAGO 15/1
16 CIRCULAR QUAY 8/1
17 STORMELLO 30/1
18 ANY GIVEN SATURDAY 12/1
19 DOMINICAN 20/1
20 GREAT HUNTER 15/1

First Selection: (2) CURLIN (Asmussen Steven M/Albarado R J)

If you had told someone that the morning line favorite for this year’s Kentucky Derby would be a horse that has had only three career races in the last three months, they would think you were out of your mind. Curlin is on the brink of silencing any critics that say it is impossible to overcome 217 years of history. A horse named Apollo was the last one to win the Kentucky Derby without a race as a two year old. The great filly Regret, was the last horse to win the Derby off only three races.
Thoroughbred racing has changed dramatically in recent years. Many factors that you would use to handicap the Derby in the past are not etched in stone in the present. Pedigree, dosage, time between races, and training regimens by old fashioned horseman were the main tools which handicappers focused their attention on. The biggest change in the last couple of years is the switch from the conventional dirt track to a new synthetic racing surface called polytrack. There are many advantageous to polytrack but the major factor is if horses can reproduce their form from one surface to another. An example of this is how do you properly evaluate the outcome of the Bluegrass stakes at Keeneland, run over the polytrack for the first time? The winner Dominican won his third straight race on polytrack. He is 0-4 in his four other dirt starts. Last years dominant Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner Street Sense was beaten a nose. He is now winless in both his races over polytrack while all three of his wins have been on dirt. Conventional wisdom says that Dominican will not repeat on dirt at Churchill while Street Sense should be forgiven for his effort in the Bluegrass. Meanwhile, as soon as these two hit the finish line, Street Sense future book odds went up and Dominican went down. Before polytrack was installed at Keeneland, inside speed was dominant every meet. With the change to polytrack last year, only one horse the entire meet went wire to wire. This spring’s meet was much the same. Handicappers are in a quandary trying to decide how these horses will perform next time out when shipped to other track surfaces.

In Curlin’s case, his form can only be evaluated based on all three of his winning efforts on dirt. In each race, he crushed his opposition, showing big improvement each time. Very few horses break their maidens first asking the way Curlin did on Feb 3 going 7f at Gulfstream. Following that race, Curlin was privately purchased for big money and transferred over to trainer Steve Asmussen, one of the best horsemen in the land. Asmussen wasted no time, shipping Curlin to Oaklawn Park for the Grade 3 Rebel stakes. He was stretching out to two turns for the first time. The result was the same but even more impressive. In his debut, Curlin wired the field. In the Rebel, he rated comfortably in mid pack, and then made a monster wide move on the turn, In the stretch he blew away the field as if they were tied to a pole. Off that effort, Curlin was sent off the odds on favorite in the prestigious Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. Just as he did in the Rebel, Curlin rated nicely while saving ground. Midway on the far turn, jockey Robbie Albarado, nudged him a little, and Curlin took off, winning by 10 ½ lengths under a hand ride. It was one of the most visually impressive performances I have ever seen.

Critics of Curlin will point out that history is against him and that he beat a very weak field in the Arkansas Derby. I feel you have to look beyond this and examine more important issues than the simple ones being echoed. My strength is as visual handicapper first, then taking other handicapping factors in consideration afterwards. What I loved most about Curlin’s effort was the way he hit the ground with a smooth and fluid motion. He did it effortlessly. When I watched the head on shot, Curlin switched leads at the perfect time turning for home. Through the stretch he raced three paths off the inside, while keeping a straight line to the wire. This is not common for a horse not to drift out or in a bit down the lane. What all this means is that Curlin, with only three races under his belt, is already a professional and mature horse who is as sound physically as a horse can be.

With many questions marks surrounding the major contenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby, Curlin is the wild card. No one really knows how good this colt is. In the hands of Steve Asmussen, anything and everything is possible. NOTE: Curlin had an outstanding four furlong workout on Monday. He galloped out powerfully past the wire. Based on all three of his starts in which he has finished up full of run and his workout, I feel that 1 ¼ miles is well within his scope.

Second Selection: (7) STREET SENSE (Nafzger Carl A/Borel C H)

Street Sense was just another runner when he entered the starting gate at Churchill Downs on November 4 to contest the Grade 1 Breeders Cup Juvenile. Dispatched at odds of 15-1 that day, nothing was much expected from this homebred runner. However, when the dust had finally settled, Street Sense had demolished the competition in the juvenile, and emerged as the leading two-year-old in 2006.
Owned by his breeder, James B. Tafel, Street Sense unleashed an ”Arazi like” move in the Juvenile leaving the far turn to place himself in contention. Trained by Carl Nafzger, who saddled Unbridled to win the Kentucky Derby in 1990, Street Sense blew past the beleaguered pacesetters shortly after entering the stretch, and was four lengths in front by the time he passed the eighth pole. He continued to pad his lead with every stride, eventually winning by a commanding ten length margin in racehorse time. While Street Sense flew under everyone’s radar prior to his break out performance, he would now have the distinction as the early-bird favorite for the 2007 Kentucky Derby.

A son of Street Cry, Street Sense collected an Eclipse Award for his spectacular effort in Louisville. He would also be saddled with the so-called “Breeders’ Cup Juvenile jinx”, as no horse who has been victorious in the Juvenile has been able to win the Run for the Roses the following year. Street Sense made his belated three-year-old debut in the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby on March 17. The two-year-old champ wasn’t even the favorite in that race, as that honor was bestowed upon Any Given Saturday. In the Tampa Bay Derby, Any Given Saturday boasted a recent winning race over the track in addition to a tactical edge over his chief rival. However, none of that mattered. Street Sense slipped through along the inside to seize command in the stretch, and then won a stirring stretch duel over Any Given Saturday by a head bob. Street Sense’s connections were delighted not only with his victory that day, but the fact that he received some much-needed conditioning which was a bonus.

A deserving favorite in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 14, Street Sense was merely a shell of his former self over the Polytrack surface. Racing wide while tracking a snail-like pace down the backstretch, Street Sense was carried out during the stretch run when he was set down for the drive by jockey Calvin Borel. Conspicuous by its absence was Street Sense’s potent late kick. He ducked-in a bit under heavy pressure from Borel, and was one-paced to the wire. Still, he finished with good energy, losing only by a scant nose in a tight photo finish.

Without question, Street Sense was not in his comfort zone at Keeneland, losing ground throughout while chasing a slow pace over the Polytrack surface. At times during the stretch, he appeared as if he was merely spinning his wheels over the all-weather surface, but persevered nevertheless. He is now 0 for 2 at Keeneland, but returns to what could arguably be his favorite traditional dirt track, Churchill Downs. Street Sense has run four races around two turns. He is perfect over conventional dirt tracks, and he looks to keep that record unblemished in the Kentucky Derby.

Undoubtedly, the pace scenario in the Kentucky Derby will be in stark contrast to the one he encountered in the Blue Grass. Street Sense will lay a lot farther off what should be a much quicker pace in the Derby. Borel with obviously let him relax early while attempting to save ground, affording him every opportunity to make full use of his come-from-behind style of running. Street Sense has yet to attain the level of excellence that he demonstrated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. To be fair, he has only had two chances since that race. He makes his third start off the layoff in the Derby, and could possibly deliver another sparkling effort over the track where he shined last year. He appears to be on the brink of delivering an explosive performance, and should things fall that way, not only can he win this race, but he can do so by a daylight margin. NOTE: Street Sense last two workouts at Churchill Downs have been nothing less than spectacular.

Third Selection: (12) NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ (Tagg Barclay/Velasquez Cornelio)

The day Nobiz Like Shobiz was to make his debut going a mile at Belmont Park on September 9, I was watching a TV show filmed from upstate New York. The guest that morning was Barclay Tagg, trainer of Nobiz. He said that this was a very special colt, one of the best 2 year olds he had ever trained. That was strong words from a horseman who has had great success throughout his career and has won a Kentucky Derby with Funny Cide. No Biz was making his debut going a one turn mile against a decent field of maidens. Nevertheless, a horse could not be more impressive winning first time out than this son of Albert The Great.
Nobiz Like Shobiz stamped himself as a potential star off that one race. It would not be long before he proved that he was in his next two starts. He was beaten less than a length stepping up from his maiden win into the prestigious Grade 1 Champagne and then once again crushed the field in the Grade 2 Remson in his first start around two turns. Nobiz certainly would have been one of the favorites in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but Tagg opted to skip the race and point for his three year old campaign which I felt was a smart move.

He returned February 3rd at Gulfstream Park back at a one turn mile. He did not disappoint with a game win in the Grade 3 Holy Bull. Nobiz was back with a vengeance and following that victory, he became the future book favorite for the run for the roses. Despite running third in his next start as the odds on favorite in the Grade 2 Fountain Of Youth, Nobiz ran better than it looks on paper. He was bumped at the start, and steadied on the first turn. He rated behind a quick pace then made a menacing move midway on the turn. For some reason he appeared to lose his focus at the top of the stretch dropping back a bit while between horses. At that point it did not look for a second that he was going to come again to get the victory. With about 100 yards to go, Nobiz found another gear, finishing up strong but beaten a half length by Scat Daddy whom he beat by three lengths in the Holy Bull. His performance took on added importance when you take into consideration the fact that he raced wide against a strong speed inside bias.

Tagg wasted no time adding blinkers following the Fountain Of Youth. Nobiz trained very well with the hood as he prepared for the Grade 1 Wood Memorial back at Aqueduct, the scene of his powerful victory as a two year old in the Remson. With his new hood and cotton inserted in both ears, Nobiz was all biz with a game victory as the odds on favorite. Skeptics who wrote him off when losing the Fountain Of Youth, were back on his bandwagon.

Obviously this is a very talented horse, possibly the most talented in this year’s Kentucky Derby field. Nevertheless, there are serious question marks concerning his effectiveness going 1 ¼ mile in a big field with an expected lively pace. Despite having won four of his six career starts with a second and third place finish, in each of those six races, he still shows me some immaturity. Nobiz clearly is at his best when he is able to bust the race open at the top of the stretch as he did in winning his maiden race and the Remson. It’s a different story when he is set down as the field turns for home and there are horses challenging for the lead inside and outside of him. He begins to lose his focus and has to work that much harder to fight on to the finish. What he will face in the Derby with many horses jockeying for position early on and then making their moves midway on the turn. It is possible that Nobiz could have the lead turning for home which will play to his strength, but I am predicting that he will wait on horses and be forced to battle hard through the lane. He cannot lose his focus and the “greenness” he still displays must be put behind him. Blinkers were added in the Wood Memorial. The verdict is still out whether or not they really helped him. He stalked the leaders from the start, but still appeared a bit rank. Once again this can not happen Saturday or else Nobiz will not win. NOTE: Nobiz has been training very well at Belmont Park while equipped with blinkers on.

Fourth Selection: (14) SCAT DADDY (Pletcher Todd A/Prado E S)

Last year, the major knock concerning Barbaro’s chances of winning the Kentucky Derby were tied to the fact that he had not raced since winning the Florida Derby, meaning that he would be idle for five weeks before attempting to win the Run for the Roses. No horse had accomplished that feat in the past, and as a result, he was summarily dismissed by many handicappers. Barbaro silenced his detractors in the Derby with an impressive daylight victory. Scat Daddy will attempt to catch lightning in a bottle in 2007, returning to the racing wars off a professional victory in the Florida Derby on March 31.
One of the leading juvenile runners in 2006, Scat Daddy failed miserably at Churchill Downs in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in November. Making his sophomore debut for trainer Todd Pletcher on February 3 in the Holy Bull Stakes, he ran creditably to finish third, his first start off the layoff. He would need to show improvement off that effort if he was going to be successful against top competition. Scat Daddy showed remarkable progress in his next start, with a determined come-from-behind victory in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. He overcame an inside speed bias in the process. The son of Johannesburg rallied determinedly in the stretch to win by a nose over Stormello and Nobiz Like Shobiz. Scat Daddy once again rose to the occasion in the Grade 1 Florida Derby in late March, with yet another fine tactical victory. He rallied to the lead in midstretch and edged away slowly, enroute to his second successive win at nine furlongs.

A runner who was once thought to have distance limitations, Scat Daddy has certainly proven his mettle over a route of ground. Without question, he is at his absolute best when afforded the opportunity to “sit and pounce” and rate outside of horses. He has enough tactical speed to handle whatever pace scenario he is confronted with as well as his ability to persevere no matter what circumstances are present. Whether or not he will be as effective at ten furlongs remains to be seen. That said, this is one runner who gives you his all every time he sets foot on a racetrack against good fields. All these qualities make him a major contender. NOTE: Scat Daddy has been training in bar shoes. He will not be equipped with them come Derby day. Many people would consider any horse who wears bar shoes, whether it is in workout or a race a major negative. I do not when it comes to Scat Daddy. Since May of his two year old campaign, Scat Daddy has trained in bar shoes. In each race they were removed. All five of his wins, four in Graded stakes, have been accomplished with this training regiman.

Fifth Selection: (3) ZANJERO (Asmussen Steven M/Bridgmohan S X)

This colt is an uncoupled mate of Curlin, one of the favorites to win the Derby. Both are trained by superb conditioner Steve Asmussen. Zanjero has shown steady improvement in his last three starts as a three year old. He was a well beaten second to Nobiz Like Showbiz in last year’s Remson, but nobody was going to beat him that day. Zanjero made his three year old debut in the Grade 3 Risen Star. He broke from a tough outside post then made a huge middle move from far back while very wide throughout. I was expecting a better performance in his next start, the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. Once again Zanjero was taken far back early. He sustained a decent rally from midway on the far turn to the wire, but had no punch late. His final prep for the Derby came in the Bluegrass Stakes at Keeneland. Zanjero’s third place finish was better than it appears. The pace could not have gone any slower. He found himself stalking along the inside. Zanjero was beaten only a head, in a blanket finish but again had no late punch. That had more to do with a change in running style. Zanjero clearly prefers to take back well off the pace and make one run. He will get much faster fractions in the Derby and therefore will find himself where he wants to be. He will be completely overlooked in the wagering. It is unlikely that Zanjero would need to make a big move forward to upset the field. He is an interesting horse to hit the board at a big big price.

The Remainder of the Field (In order of preference)
(16) CIRCULAR QUAY (Pletcher Todd A/Velazquez J R)

Circular Quay, a homebred runner owned by Michael and Doreen Tabor, attained his first measure of prominence with an electrifying come-from-behind win in the Grade 1 Hopeful Stakes last summer at Saratoga. Racing in a different zip code as the pacesetters butted heads on the front end, Circular Quay uncorked a powerful burst of late foot to reach contention leaving the far turn. He quickly joined the leaders nearing the eighth pole and then drew clear to a 4 1/4 length victory.
That winning effort stamped him as one of the leaders of the sophomore division, but it would be some time before he would reacquaint himself with the winner’s circle. Circular Quay was a commendable second to Street Sense in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November, despite losing by 10 lengths. He was forced to rally from last place after being virtually eliminated at the break. He improved his position against the grain of an inside speed biased track, and obviously would have been closer with a better trip and a fairer track. A son of Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch, Circular Quay was off-the-board in his sophomore debut on Feb. 10 in the Grade 3 Risen Star Stakes at the Fair Grounds. He was stopped cold while in the midst of his rally as jockey John Velazquez steered him clear to avoid trampling over a fallen rider. Despite that incident, he somehow managed to recapture his stride and finished a respectable fifth. I’m sure that was not the race that Todd Pletcher had in mind for his top three-year-old.

Circular Quay had now been beaten three times in as many starts around two turns, and the whispers were rampant that he was nothing more than a late-running sprinter. Circular Quay quickly silenced the skeptics with a devastating late burst of speed to win the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby by more than two lengths. Breaking alertly from the rail and without a straw in his path, Circular Quay picked off runners one-by-one down the backstretch and around the far turn. He challenged eventual runner-up Ketchikan for the lead at the midstretch point, and left that rival in his wake as he drew clear with complete authority.

A dyed-in-the-wool closer, Circular Quay enters the Kentucky Derby off nearly a two-month break, a difficult task to be sure. His ability to emerge victorious today may be directly attributed a clean trip and/or a lively and contentious pace scenario, which is vital to set-up his late run. Deep closers usually need everything to fall their way in order to be successful, and Circular Quay is no different. He would definitely profit if the race falls apart during the late stages, as his closing kick would even be more enhanced with quick fractions, particularly in a race where many contenders are suspect at 1 1/4 miles. In the end, whether he emerges victorious today may not be tied to his ability, but rather the kind of trip he gets, in what can be one of the most roughly run races at times.

(20) GREAT HUNTER (O'neill Doug/Nakatani C S)

Despite being soundly trounced by Street Sense in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November at Churchill Downs, Great Hunter was still considered to be one of the leading juvenile runners of 2006. Prior to his Breeders’ Cup effort, Great Hunter acquired a measure of notoriety with his game off-the-pace victory in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on October 7 while making his initial foray around two turns. Forced to steady a bit early on and overcome a bumping incident as well, Great Hunter still managed to lodge a strong rally leaving the far turn. His sustained bid propelled him to the lead in the stretch, and when the Polytrack finally settled after the race, the West Coast invader had emerged with a 1 3/4 length victory.
Despite being well-beaten to conclude his two-year-old campaign, Great Hunter was bet down to odds-on favoritism when he returned in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis S. at Santa Anita on March 3. This time, Great Hunter did not disappoint. The Doug O’Neill trained sophomore overcame a bit of a wide trip, uncorking a powerful burst of speed leaving the far turn to reach contention. His forward momentum carried him to the front in the stretch, and he maintained a clear advantage to the wire. Great Hunter showed noticeable improvement off the layoff, clearing the first hurdle of his three-year-old season with style. However, much tougher obstacles lie ahead him in the not to distant future.

In his next start, the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, Great Hunter was the second choice in the wagering, with Street Sense installed as the post time favorite. With a snail-like pace to contend with in the Blue Grass at Keeneland, jockey Corey Nakatani found himself stalking the crawling fractions. A horse that likes to make a swooping late run, Great Hunter was quite clearly out of his element pressing the pace. As a result, he was unable to quicken was asked by Nakatani. He had been taken out of his game plan by tracking the sluggish fractions. While attempting to rally in the stretch, Great Hunter was forced to steady a bit approaching the 1/16 pole, but it didn’t really matter as he was just not himself with the change in tactics.

While Great Hunter would live to fight another day, this is not the type of effort you want from your horse as he prepares to contest the Kentucky Derby. While Great Hunter is a talented individual, he has yet to win beyond 1 1/16 miles, and that does not bode well for him today as he returns to Churchill Downs. A runner who is at his best when able to sit and make one run, how effective he will be at ten furlongs is certainly a question mark. His late kick has been quite useful at shorter distances while receiving the most optimal setups. In my opinion, Great Hunter will be severely tested today against much more accomplished rivals, and would have to be at his absolute best to have a chance of hitting the board at the demanding 1 1/4 mile distance.

(18) ANY GIVEN SATURDAY (Pletcher Todd A/Gomez G K)

Off his three two year old races, I was of the opinion that this $1.1 million dollar yearling purchase was one to keep a close eye on as potential Kentucky Derby contender. Any Given Saturday broke his maiden first asking breaking from an outside post in a field of eleven at the 5 ½ furlong distance. Based on his long winded pedigree, he showed he was quality colt to win at this distance. He scored easily in his next start stretching out to two turns. Both races were on polytrack at Turfway Park and Keeneland. Any Given Saturday would get his stiffest test stepping up into a Grade 2 stake in his final start as a two year. This would be his first start on a conventional dirt track at Churchill Downs, while facing a quality and more seasoned runner in Tis Wonderful. Despite a wide trip throughout, he was only beaten a half length by that rival.
I was anxiously awaiting Any Given Saturday’s first start as a three year old. That came nearly three months later in the Sam Davis at Tampa Bay Downs. Despite not being more than 75 % fit going into the race as trainer Todd Pletcher indicated, he won ridden out against a modest field. Following that race, a major interest was sold to Win Star farm for an amount way above his yearling price. Any Given Saturday had gotten a good sharpener for his next race, the Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby. This race would be a true barometer of his ability as he would face last year’s two year old champion, Street Sense, who was making his three year old debut. The Tampa Bay Derby was clearly a two horse race and that was how it was run, with Street Sense winning by a scant nose. Both horses ran extremely well. Street Sense sat a perfect rail trip, but showed how gritty he is by eking out a win over a horse that had the advantage of a race over the track. I felt that jockey John Velazquez who was aboard Any Given Saturday finessed him to much. With a more aggressive ride, he would have won. Nevertheless he had proven that he was a potential Kentucky Derby winner with loads of talent. Pletcher felt after this race, that he was his best chance to win the run for the roses.

Any Given Saturday would have one more prep race in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct to have him dead fit for the Derby. I felt he would defeat Nobiz Like Showbiz. As the odds on favorite, Any Given Saturday ran a disappointing third. He lacked any kind of strong finish in the final eighth of a mile, running third, beaten nearly four lengths. The second place finisher had only a maiden win to his credit

With a month to recover from that effort, it is really difficult to predict which horse will show up in the Derby. There are two ways to evaluate his performance. Did the Tampa Bay Derby take too much out of him? Did he dislike the Aqueduct main track surface? Was he hindered by racing wide throughout? Could he have had some sort of minor illness which was discovered after that race, but was not disclosed? These are questions very difficult to answer.

Handicappers have short memories and evaluate horses by their last race. Because of this, Any Given Saturday will be ignored at the windows. This was exactly the same scenario last year when Pletcher won with Bluegrass Cat in the Tampa Bay Derby as the heavy favorite, then ran poorly in the Bluegrass stakes at Keeneland. Off that unforgiving effort, Bluegrass Cat went off at very long odds in the Kentucky Derby, finishing a strong second. This could occur again with Any Given Saturday. Regular rider John Velazquez has opted to ride the Pletcher trained Circular Quay. New rider Garrett Gomez will get the call. I am not concerned by this rider change. I have seen many times that Velazquez will jump off a horse he has ridden for another Pletcher runner and the other one wins. A matter of fact, I prefer Gomez as a rider over Velazquez. He is a stronger finisher and a more aggressive jockey. Velazquez is more of a finesse rider, a style which I feel does not suit Any Given Saturday. His best chance to win the Derby is to take back further off the pace than he has been in his last two starts. If Gomez can have him nice and relaxed until he asks his mount for his run approaching the stretch, I feel that he has a chance to be a factor. My main concern is that Any Given Saturday had every chance to beat Street Sense in the Tampa Bay Derby and could not. He had every chance to run second in the Wood and could not. His final workout for the Derby was good but he did not gallop out that strong. All three factors concern me about his ability to win at 1 ¼ miles.

If for some reason the track comes up wet, his chances of winning increases. He has the best wet track pedigree of any horse in the Derby field. Any Given Saturday has worked very well on many occasions over wet surfaces.

(19) DOMINICAN (Miller Darrin/Bejarano R)

I could sum up Dominican with one sentence; “He is a significantly better horse on Polytrack than he is over traditional dirt surfaces”. Purchased for $150,000 as a two-year-old, this gelded son of El Corredor has yet to taste defeat over a “synthetic type” track, most recently taking the measure of Street Sense by a nose in the Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes last month at Keeneland. His last second heroics at the wire were good enough for him to take down the lion’s share of the purse, rallying determinedly from off the pace, while racing widest of all in the stretch. Dominican overcame a lackluster pace scenario to boot.
The conundrum that will beset Dominican in the Kentucky Derby is the reality that he is winless from two starts over the Churchill Downs main track, with one of those races coming against preliminary Allowance runners last fall. The Darrin Miller trained runner finished fourth in that aforementioned effort. He certainly has not been disgraced over conventional dirt surfaces, overcoming a troubled-trip to take down fourth money in the Arlington-Washington Breeders’ Cup Futurity last summer at Arlington Park over a sloppy track. He dispensed a creditable third-place finish later in the year over this track in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Gold Cup, with Tiz Wonderful and Any Given Saturday finishing in front of him in that contest.

That said, the fact he has never won on dirt is problematic for me. Even though Dominican was victorious in the Bluegrass, it was a bizarre race from start to finish because of the “snail” pace. The fractions in the Derby will be much faster, but I do not have a feel that Dominican will be able to duplicate his win in the Derby, even though he can hit the board.

(8) HARD SPUN (Jones J Larry/Pino M G)

As a two-year-old, Hard Spun was one of the leading juveniles in the Mid-Atlantic region, winning all three of his races for trainer Larry J. Jones. As a result, his connections sought greener pastures for him in the New Year, shipping to the Fair Grounds to compete in the Grade 3 LeComte Stakes on January 13.
The LeComte would be Hard Spun’s first race around two turns, and his initial effort against graded stakes competition. The son of Danzig cleared both of those obstacles with aplomb as the even money favorite. Hard Spun wired the field with remarkable ease, rating kindly under jockey Mario Pino and then drawing off at will to win by daylight, while remaining unbeaten in the process. His next target would be the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park on February 19. Once again he was dispatched as the odds-on favorite despite breaking from a disadvantageous outside post. Settling into fifth position early, Hard Spun made a menacing middle move to come within shouting distance of the lead. Nevertheless, he could not sustain that bid into the stretch and had to settle for fourth. Reports were abundant that Hard Spun did not handle the Oaklawn Park track all that well, failing to grab a hold of it and extending himself. A change in venue was in order for the Pennsylvania-bred runner, as he would now contest the Grade 2 Lanes End Stakes on March 24 at Turfway Park.

Hard Spun took to the Polytrack surface like a duck takes to water. He overcame an outside post to sit a perfect stalking trip down the backstretch. This time when he was asked by Pino to accelerate leaving the far turn, he responded willingly, drawing away to an insurmountable lead at the midstretch point. He subsequently won by 3 3/4 decisive lengths. Hard Spun was now back on track and set his sights on Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland. However, when he missed a critical workout at his home base, Churchill Downs, due to track conditions, that plan had to be scrapped. Trainer Larry Jones wasn’t sure he would he make the Derby, but after a bullet workout on April 12 over a fast Churchill Downs main track, it was full steam ahead.

In his most recent winning effort at Turfway Park, Hard Spun proved that he didn’t need the lead to win. That said, not having raced in forty two days and the fact that he possesses a discriminating taste concerning what track he will run his best race over, is problematic. A horse with obvious talent, he faces an uphill battle stretching out to ten furlongs. While he should make his presence felt, I would be hard pressed to think that he could win at this distance. NOTE: Hard Spun had one of the fastest works ever seen by a Derby horse for as long as I can remember. On April 30, Hard Spun worked :57 3/5 breezing. He worked in company with a Grade 1 filly, and easily disposed of that rival before the work ended. What I did not like to see was how tired he pulled up.

(15) TIAGO (Shirreffs John/Smith M E)

Half brother to 2005 Kentucky Derby upset winner Giacomo, attempts to catch lightning in the bottle once again for trainer John Shirreffs and owner Jerome Moss. There are similarities between the two colts. Both run from off the pace even though Giacomo had less gate speed and more of a grinder. Tiago is more agile and can make that middle move that puts him in contending position entering the stretch. Tiago comes off an upset win in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. Blinkers were removed that day which seemed to keep him more focused. I felt it was not the blinkers that did the trick that afternoon, but the fast pace which set up his closing rally. The sire of Giacomo was Holy Bull. Tiago’s father is Pleasant Tap who loved a distance of ground. The 1 ¼ mile distance should not hurt Tiago. I can see Tiago possibly getting a piece of the pie, but I just don’t feel he is good enough to be a factor for the win.

(13) SAM P. (Pletcher Todd A/Dominguez R A)

One of five Todd Pletcher trained runners in the Derby and one that I do not like at all. Has two wins, a maiden score and an entry allowance win, both around one turn. Sam P has improved around two turns running second in a Grade 2 stake at Santa Anita and then returned with a solid third in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. As the betting favorite, Sam P forced a quick pace, dropped back on the turn and then came again to finish evenly in the stretch. He will be a pace factor in the Derby, but like several others in this race, he is expected to tire when the real racing begins.

(17) STORMELLO (Currin William/Desormeaux K J)

Except for his maiden loss in his career debut (without lasix) and a fifth place finish in last year’s BC Juvenile, Stormello has been a very consistent performer. Stormello loves the lead but has also run just as effectively stalking the pace. What I have noticed about him is that he prefers to race outside of horses. He appears to have distance limitations. Stormello has yet to win beyond 1 1/16 miles, even though he ran very well in the Fountain Of Youth at Gulfstream Park, when beaten a nose by Scat Daddy. Stormello is a hard knocking colt who will win stakes races in the future when placed in the right spot. The Kentucky Derby is not one of them.

(6) COWTOWN CAT (Pletcher Todd A/Jara Fernando)

He showed ability as a two year old, but the verdict was out whether or not he could develop into a serious Derby contender when he returned at three. With an easy allowance win and a third place finish in the Grade 2 Swale stakes, both at Gulfstream, it was evident that he had improved. The problem was that both those races were in sprints. He had yet proved he would be just as affective at two turns. The question was answered when Cowtown Cat won the Grade 3 Gotham at Aqueduct stretching out to 1 1/16 miles. His win was over the winterized inner dirt course. He had to prove that he could win on a conventional dirt track. Cowtown Cat shipped to Hawthorne Park and wired the field. He set a very slow pace but finished up fast.
He is not quick enough to take the lead or even force the pace in the Derby. His ability to rate will help him get a position in the first flight of horses. When the field turns for home, Cowtown Cat will make a move, but I find it difficult for him to sustain it. In the final eighth of a mile, it is likely that he will tire.

(1) SEDGEFIELD (Miller Darrin/Leparoux Julien R)

Sedgefield is an uncoupled mate of Dominican, winner of the Blue Grass stakes. Both horses are trainer by Darrin Miller. He has won two of eight starts, one on polytrack and once on the grass. Sedgefield’s best career effort was a solid second place finish in the Grade 2 Lanes End at Turfway Park. He broke from a tough outside post, racing wide throughout. Hard Spun won easily that day, but with a better trip, Sedgefield would have been closer. His last race was in the Grade 3 Transylvania on grass at Keeneland. Sedgefield forced the pace throughout, tiring in the final eighth of a mile. I feel he is best rating and then pouncing. In all three of his starts at 1 1/8 miles, he has lost ground in the stretch. I cannot consider him a win factor, because he does not appears to be a horse who will be effective at 1 ¼ miles.

(4) STORM IN MAY (Kaplan William A/Leyva J C)

Storm In May is a speed horse who has shown he can rate just of the leaders if need be. He has four wins, two on grass and two sprinting. He gets neither in the Derby. Storm In May found himself further back than expected in the Arkansas Derby. He was beaten ten lengths by Curlin, but could have been further back than that of Albarado on Curlin has been hard urged late to extend his margin. Storm In May has no shot winning the Derby. He is not even likely to beat half the field at a distance which is much further than what he wants.

(9) LIQUIDITY (O'neill Doug/Flores D R)

Liquidity is an uncoupled mate of Cobalt Blue. Both are trained by California based horseman Doug O’Neill. Liquidity broke his maiden in his debut and since that race, he has yet to win, despite solid efforts in the Grade 1 Hollywood Futurity, the Grade 3 Sham and the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. He has shown a tendency to be a little head strong early on, and then moves up quickly to force the pace. The major flaw for this colt is that in all six starts against winners, he has lost ground from the eighth pole to the wire. Facing a much stiffer pace and a full field of twenty, Liquidity will be a factor for a mile, but after that, he is likely to tire badly.

(10) TEUFLESBERG (Sanders Jamie/Elliott S)

Teuflesberg gets into the race with the defections of Xchanger and Cobalt Blue. It would have been better for him if those two elected to run. His fourth place finish in the Bluegrass, beaten only a neck, was not nearly as good as it might look on paper. Teulflesberg set a snail pace which gave him every advantage over the other off the pace runners, who had to adjust to a very different pace scenario, than what was anticipated. He is most effective as a sprinter and up to mile. Tueuflesberg is unlikely to last even a mile in the Derby. If I could wager on which horse will run last, I would be tempted to place some money on this colt.

(5) IMAWILDANDCRAZYGUY (Kaplan William A/Guidry M)

Sneaks into the Derby because of two late defections. It’s too bad, because he is being thrown to the wolfs with no chance at all. He has won two races, one a maiden win sprinting and the other in an optional claimer in a five horse field. Imawildandcrazyguy was long odds in the Louisiana Derby and the Florida Derby. In both races he passed tired and overmatched rivals late. He will make a late run in the Derby which will help him pass speed horses who figure to back up badly in the stretch. He is just not good enough to be a factor at the finish.

(11) BWANA BULL (Hollendorfer Jerry/Castellano J J)

Bwana Bull was scratched out of the Derby Trial last Saturday in favor of the Kentucky Derby. It was not unexpected because he has been racing around two turns whereas the Trial is around one. Prior to the Santa Anita Derby in his last start, Bwana Bull had reeled off three strong wins at Golden Gate and Bay Meadows. In the Santa Anita Derby he did not fire at all in the stretch and actually lost ground. He had a good post and got a fast pace to close into. Off that effort in his first start at 1 1/8 miles, it is very difficult to consider him a contender on Saturday, especially at the 1 ¼ mile distance.

Wagering Strategy
The key to making money on any particular race is how you structure your wagering tickets. In this case I have selected the two morning line favorites. This does not concern me at all because it is how I plot out the wager which is the difference between winning and losing.
A win bet on # 2 Curlin.

Equal exacta box 2-7.

$1.00 trifecta part wheel: 2 / 7 / 3-6-8-12-14-15-16-18-19-20 = $10.00.

$1.00 trifecta part wheel: 7 / 2 / 3-6-8-12-14-15-16-18-19-20 = $10.00

$1.00 trifecta part wheel: 2 / 3-6-8-12-14-15-16-18-19-20 / 7 = $10.00

$1.00 trifecta part wheel: 7 / 3-6-8-12-14-15-16-18-19-20 / 2 = $10.00

Total trifecta wager = $40.00

(I have given the trifectas for $1.00 as an example on what each ticket would
cost. The total cost for the trifecta = $40.00. Obviously you can play each
trifecta for a differant amount. Always remember to wager within your own
comfort level).

I have constructed a wagering strategy for trifecta plays using my top two
selections in the first, second and third positions in the tri along with those
horses that I feel have the best chance to complete the trifecta ticket

Golden Contender

Im Done- Ive Looked At This Race From A Number Of Different Ways, And If Street Sense Didnt Have That Derby Jinx Of Needing More Than 2 Prep Races Going Ag Him I Would Have Taken His As His 108 Career Best Beyer Is The Highest Of Any In Here, But Horse With Only 2 Prep Races Have Won Once In 20 Years, And Great Hunter Is Another Who I Cant Bet To Win Because Of This- Nobizlikeshowbiz Who I Like Alot And Has All The Credentials Simply Isnt Fast Enough Like Most In Here- Scat Daddy Also Not Fast Enough,despite A Good Career So Far, So That Leves Me With A Horse Who Was Almost As Good As Street Sense In His Last, Has Run A Shade Below Him In The Beyers, But Did Not Get Disqualified For Anything Else Has A Decent Post, And Had Dirt Kicked In His Face And Still Gained Lenghts In The Stretch, Which Means Hes Battle Tested,and Sitting On A Big Race- My Win Bet Is On Anygivensaturday- And These Horses Behind Him For Exactas And Triples- Streetsense, Nobizshobiz, Liquidity,scatdaddy, Samp-, Im Gonna Box Some Triples And Maybe A Super- But Im Not Gonna Stray From These- Bol Gc-

Bookie Buster · May 5, 2007

<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=3 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=alt3 vAlign=center align=left width="80%" height=20><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=style6 align=left>Kentucky Derby and Churchill Card </TD><TD class=style6 align=right>Posted Yesterday at 09:54 PM</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR><TR><TD class=alt3 vAlign=top align=left>
This field is gonna be a tough field.
Here are the bets I took on the Derby (Race 10 @ Churchill 1 1/4 mile main track)

Tri Box 14-9-2 ($12)
* these three horses have been training at 1 1/8 and before that were training at 1 1/16. All the horses in the field have never run this distance, but out of all the horses, these three have the best learning curve when increasing distance. I know curling is new to the game, but he ran such a great race at Arkansas winning by 12 lenghts with out the jockey even whipping the horse once.

Long Shot Play

Ex Box 2-9-19 ($12)
*I know no horse has ever one the derby from any post position beyond 15, but this horse Dominican#19 is in the top 5 horses as far as a learning curve is considered,and this horse is making his critical thrid start, winning both starts since his layoff

I also like to play a Pick 3 around the Derby, because there is so much stupid money being bet on the race, we could see a huge payout for the bet.

I played 2 pick 3's

PK3
Race 7
4,10
Race 8
1
Race 9
9
($4 bet)

PK3
Race 8
1
Race 9
9
Race 10
14,9,2
($6 Bet)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

mgiouri

___________________
Duckgawd

Interresting using Liquidity in your TriB. #9 Liquidity, Racing in the biggest race of any horses career, comes in with 7 starts and only 1 win! So for all us Horse Players we know that is a Md Sp Wt, and in this case for 40k at 6F and since then has finished 2nd twice, once in Holywood Futurity G1 to stormello, and that was as a 2YO and then at 3YO in the Sham G3 to Ravel who is off the derby trail! I dont know what his owner was saying, when he stated he liked this horse better then Great Hunter, but maybe this one will finsih 19th and Great Hunter 20th (exagerating) but this would take a big step up for this horse who does show some good speed to step up here and be in the Tri! Blinkers come off today which I think can only hurt with a 150,000+ crowd roaring coming around the stretch! He has been a beaten favorite twice and low odds two more times not even coming in the tris in those either! O'niel might send this horse early to steal it but most likely be a set up horse for great hunter.

Only thing he fits in for me is, he is one of a handfull of horses who have run 100+ beyer speed fig, running a 102 3 starts back in the G3 Sham.

P.S. As i stated in a previous thread watch out for scatt daddy, he has been working on bar shoes which is a protective shoe- and If you look at his Florida derby he was all out and starting to fall in his win, added 3/8 might be trouble for him! (***** IF THE TRACK IS WET/OFF THIS HORSE SHOULD LOVE IT! 1 START OVER AN OFF TRACK WITH A WIN!)

___________________________
These are current odds from 7 PM Friday night with a little over 371K bet into the win pool, you see Street Sense as the fav at 9-2 with Curlin falling to 6-1! This is were the early money has gone!

1, Sedgefield, 46-1

2, Curlin, 6-1

3, Zanjero, 34-1

4, Storm In May, 20-1

5, Imawildandcrazyguy, 18-1

6, Cowtown Cat, 18-1

7, Street Sense, 9-2

8, Hard Spun, 10-1

9, Liquidity, 46-1

10, Teuflesberg, 44-1

11, Bwana Bull, 35-1

12, Nobiz Like Shobiz, 12-1

13, Sam P., 47-1

14, Scat Daddy, 6-1

15, Tiago, 10-1

16, Circular Quay, 14-1

17, Stormello, 48-1

18, Any Given Saturday, 21-1

19, Dominican, 17-1

20, Great Hunter, 26-1

jaanis

OK here we go. I will give my quick notes on each horse and show my selections:

1 Sedgefield Julien Leparoux 50-1 Love the jockey, wish he could have got a better first ride in the Derby. This horse wont like the "real" dirt and should try the grass.
[SIZE=+0]
2 Curlin Robby Albarado 7-2 - Has done nothing wrong, but then again has crushed pretty weak competition. Most will be this horse and certainly think it will factor into the exotic bets. I am just not a fan of a horse that has not run as a 2-year old and the horse is speed and like to up front in a grueling 10 furlong event.[/SIZE]
[SIZE=+0]
3 Zanjero Shaun Bridgmohan 30-1 - Decent horse that just missed beating Street Sense and Dominican last time out. Will be a great price for the long shot bettors.

4 Storm in May Juan Leyva 30-1 - Will get some "name play", but not from me.

5 Imawildandcrazyguy Mark Guidry 50-1 - Sneaks in with Cobalt Blue not entering and hasn't even won a race this year. No thanks.

6 Cowtown Cat Fernando Jara 20-1 - Want to like but simply is not good enough with with his top figure being 97. Yikes!

7 Street Sense Calvin Borel 4-1 - Really want to like this horse a lot, but hard three hard battles. Did he spend to much already? Will play in exotics, but the Juvenile Jinx will keep him from winning, but not showing up.

8 Hard Spun Mario Pino 15-1 - Front ender with a very fast work and will prove his speed Saturday. Has not raced in 6 weeks, to long for me.

9 Liquidity David Flores 30-1 - Only maiden win? How do these horses get in?

10 Teuflesberg Stewart Elliot 30-1 - Hate speed horses like this. He will be in the lead to the half and no where in the finish.

11 Bwana Bull Javier Castellano 50-1 - Another horse that is simply going backwards of late. Never a good thing.

12 Nobiz Like Shobiz Cornelio Velasquez 8-1 - Really like this horse. With second time blinkers on this horse will be focused on the task at hand show in the top 4, if not win.

13 Sam P. Ramon Dominguez 20-1 - Way to over matched her with only a allowance win.

14 Scat Daddy Edgar Prado 10-1 - Todd Pletcher finally wins the Derby!

15 Tiago Mike Smith 15-1 - I have always leaned towards closers. With that being said don't think a closers will win this year, but sure will finish in the top 4.

16 Circular Quay John Velazquez 8-1 - Once again usually love closers, but not in today's field it will be tough, especially after 8 week layoff, wow.

17 Stormello Kent Desormeaux 30-1 - Blah another speed horse. Wont be able to rate this horse, thus it wont be there at the end.

18 Any Given Saturday Garrett Gomez 12-1 - Liked this horse earlier this year, but seems to be regressing now, not a good sign and being 18 kicks him out for me.

19 Dominican Rafael Bejarano 20-1 - Like the fact that this horse has been improving over the last 5 starts. Just don't like fact that it is a closer at heart. This race race has a quite a few closers in it, maybe one will surprise.

20 Great Hunter Corey Nakatani 15-1 - Post is horrible, but could wait, wait and wait take down horses one by one, but so could Dominican and Any Given Saturday as much as this one could. Like this distance, might consider for exotics.[/SIZE]

I feel the track will be dry tomorrow and it wont be a factor. Sure I like closers but maybe not this year because of the lack of true speed in the race. Sure horses like Curlin and Stormello will push the pace but nothing like last year to allow a horse like Tiago/Circular Quay to come flying. With that being said I love closers to much and will include on in my exotic plays if only because lots of the horses have trouble with the added distance of the Kentucky Derby. Horses that will be able to rate with tactical speed, and in the middle of the pack with late kick will excel. Also be cautious of horses that won or raced mostly on the poly track (synthetic-surface), we know Churchill is no cushion track. The dirt will be flying! My picks:

1. Scat Daddy
2. Street Sense
3. Nobiz Like Shobiz
4. Tiago
5. Zanjero

Consider: Great Hunter, Dominican and Hard Spun

Boxing these 5 for tri, Scat and Sense for exacta and playing Scat Daddy WPS

Shows on ESPN:

Handicapping the Derby
Saturday, May 5, 5:30 a.m. ET on ESPN2
Kentucky Derby Breakfast Show (live)
Saturday, May 5, 6 a.m. ET on ESPN2
Today at the Kentucky Derby (live)
Saturday, May 5, 12 p.m. ET on ESPN
Kentucky DerbySpecial (live)
Saturday, May 5, 3 p.m. ET on ESPN
Kentucky Derby (live)
Saturday, May 5, 4:30 p.m. ET on NBC

Bookie Buster · May 5, 2007

Pacman

KY Derby 2007
<HR style="COLOR: #2b295e" SIZE=1>The formula:
http://www.geocities.com/pacmans_pag..._WorkSheet.pdf

There will be exotics listed later this morning.

sds23 · May 5, 2007

METFAN said:
I'm Playing $250 On The Derby...if You Guys Prefer You Can Have 10% Each On My Action.i'll Be Boxing 7.8,12,14 ,16 In The Exacta And Triple. 18 Makes Me Nervous So I'll Be Putting 10 To Win And Place On 18.undecided To Play Win Bets Or A Perfecta With The Rest.let Me Know

Wow, what a wonderful gesture! I am not even sure how to respond to this offer. On the one hand, I have never played horses, so I am probably the last person who should suggest a play. And on the other hand, I feel like I don't really deserve such a great offer from you.

But then again, it may be even more rude of me to turn you down. With that said, please don't worry about taking care of me or giving me thanks in way....but if this is something that you indeed want to do or insist upon doing....then I will tail whatever you or Bookie Buster come up with since your opinions will be more valuable than mine could ever be in this arena.

Thank you so much for the offer. Just let me know who or what I sould be rooting for if this something that you insist upon doing. Very, very cool gesture!

Bookie Buster · May 5, 2007

Gus Bus

Kentucky Derby thoughts
<HR style="COLOR: #a8a8a8" SIZE=1>WOW 20 horse field! This is a tough race to lay mucho dinero on with that kind of bumping going on out of the gate. If a front runner or early speed horses can draw clear out of the gate they could put it away here.

Lets run em down!

#1 Sedgefield-Throwing him out...this is a horse that runs on the weeds.

#2 Curlin-Recorded a nice Beyer of 103 in the Arkansas Derby, but, what is more impressive to me is that top of stretch to wire run. He gained 12 lengths effortlessly!!! Add in the fact of a wet track and Curlin is offspring of Mr. Prospector. Very dangerous, I'll keep him...consider a bounce?

#3 Zanjero-Looks like a rabbit for the Asmussen barn...throw out.

#4 Storm in May-Finished out a nice exacta in the Arkansas Derby at 15-1 running second,but,lost by 10 to Curlin in that race

#5-Imawildandcrazyguy-Blind in one eye. Heart felt story for Kaplan but does not fit with these other 3 year olds.

#6-Cowtown Cat-One of five for Pletcher today. Talk about trying to corner the market. Nice romp in the Illinois Derby wiring the field. Hasn't broken a 100 beyer and that's a problem for me.

#7-Street Sense-Impressive horse BLOWOUT in the Breeders Cup juvenille recording a 108 beyer. Running decent this year beating anygivensaturday in the TB Derby and recording a 102 Beyer.

#8-Hard Spun-Could be my WIN ticket here. This horse has been odds-on in every start but last and has won by no less that 3 lengths in winning 5 of 6 LT. Been posting BULLET workouts and seems to like Churchill surface. Gets veteran Pino to navigate the voyage...maybe none better.

#9-Liquidity-Even with blinkers off does not entice me. Throw out

#10Teuflesberg-Has had more starts than any horse in this field. under .500 in the money and took awhile to get thrown into a maiden race to win. Not what was expected from this horse . Throw out.

#11-Bwana Bull-Outclassed here. Took 4 tries to break maiden and no impressive Beyers to speak of, Castellano is out of this early. Throw out

#12-Nobiz Like Shobiz-In the money every start with 4 being wins! Velasquez mounts up again so there must be something here. Odds-on in all but 1 race and has faced many in this field today. Will keep for exotics

#13-Sam P.-Another Pletcher horse with hot jockey Ramon Dominguez. Has faced a few of these opponents today but no wins over them and today is not the day to score. Equipment change with Blinkers off may let this horse move with more confidence, just feel he comes up short of the money. Lets move on

#14-Scat Daddy-Really like this horse even without a 100 Beyer figure. Ran 2nd to stablemate Circular Quay in the Hopeful G-1 event but didnt show in the rematch falling off by 15. I like the descision to keep Edgar Prado on this horse as he will get the best of of Scat here today. Wet track? This is the one as a Mr. Prospector offspring ..romped in maiden mud at Belmont.

#15-Tiago-Half brother to Giacamo and has similar talents. Consider shouldn't have had maiden win (won through DQ) in second try. Impressive that he was tied up in a 7 wide stretch run and was not bothered by getting dirt kicked up at Santa Anita. Kept the longshot family history going as a 15-1 shot winner in the Santa Anita Derby. Problem is this is the first race at an off track..Coming East as first time off of Santa Anita.

#16-Circular Quay-My 2nd favorite Pletcher horse in the field and Don't think the layoff will hinder at all. I always look for moves on the turn and this horse recorded a nice move in the LA Derby gaining 5 while 4 wide!! Continued to romp gaining 9 down the stretch and recorded a respectable 102. Loves this track at Churchill winning 2 of 3 here and coming 2nd as he was steadied in the Juvenille. Owners switched trainers from Pletcher then came right back and Velazquez keeps the faith by taking the mount today.

#17-Stormello-Not up to this class here and this horse is totally OWNED by many others in todays field. Throw out

Bookie Buster · May 5, 2007

Stu Finer
Kentucky Derby Trifecta...1. NOBIZ LIKE SHOBIZ 2. CIRCULAR QUAY 3. STREET SENSE

HONDO
Kentucky Derby
Scat Daddy

Bookie Buster · May 5, 2007

Saturday May 5, 2007
Eddie McKinney
Fast Eddie Sports

Kentucky Derby and Boxing

To Win Race

5* $100 Regular Plays -

Tiago at 15 to 1

AnyGivenSaturday at 12 to 1

Boxing

De La Hoya + 160

Rz's Qiuet Winner.....

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

WINNER= GREAT HUNTER 20-1
Sports Picks 1019 Handicapping Plays Successfully and Picking Winners Since 1995

Bookie Buster · May 5, 2007

METFAN said:
I'm Playing $250 On The Derby...if You Guys Prefer You Can Have 10% Each On My Action.i'll Be Boxing 7.8,12,14 ,16 In The Exacta And Triple. 18 Makes Me Nervous So I'll Be Putting 10 To Win And Place On 18.undecided To Play Win Bets Or A Perfecta With The Rest.let Me Know

Metfan,

Here is who I like today:

2, Curlin, 6-1
8, Hard Spun, 10-1
14, Scat Daddy, 6-1
12, Nobiz Like Shobiz, 12-1
16, Circular Quay, 14-1
4, Storm In May, 20-1
7, Street Sense, 9-2

Bookie Buster · May 5, 2007

Metfan,

I would box exacta this for $56.

Thanks,

BB

Bookie Buster · May 5, 2007

Gus Bus

#18-Any Given Saturday-Owners paid the price for this one and have returned only 33% of their investment. A win today would change that in a big way. This horse has the breeding and class to get the roses round the neck but has Pletcher done enough to help his cause? This horse has the best mud numbers at 458 but has never ran on a wet track,so, unproven. No graded stakes wins concerns me allthough close,losing by a nose and then by a half length.

#19-Dominican-2 wins in 2007 and impressive running 7 wide in the Bluegrass while tackling Street Sense and Zanjero. Could be there in the end as Bejarno is 2-0 on the back of this Mr. Greeley product.

#20 Great Hunter-Could return to the winners circle off of the bounce effort at Keenland. Very familiar with foes today and Nakatani back aboard. Numbers say that this horse doesn't have the class to stick with these but actual races say different. Coming out of a bad post position many will skip over him here as he looks like a fill in. Any horse that has earned close to 800k at this age is worth a look for me. Kenny Mayne hopefully does not put the ESPN jinx on him here. lol

OFFICIAL SELECTIONS COMING UP!

METFAN · May 5, 2007

Bookie Buster said:
Metfan,

Here is who I like today:

2, Curlin, 6-1
8, Hard Spun, 10-1
14, Scat Daddy, 6-1
12, Nobiz Like Shobiz, 12-1
16, Circular Quay, 14-1
4, Storm In May, 20-1
7, Street Sense, 9-2

DUDE THAT IS 7 HORSES BOXED WOULD BE 44 BETS NOT SURE HOW YOU FIGURED $25 UNLESS YOUR SPLITTING WITH SDS. YOU HAVE 25 MIN TO GET BACK TO ME OR YOU AND SDS WITH HAVE TO TAIL MY PLAYS.SURE ME THE BET AND AMOUNT IT 'S NOT THAT HARD

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