MLB: Saturday May 5th Plays

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Phillies @ Giants
Play: Giants -106
Intrinsic Value: -125
Consider Betting Price: -112
Comment:

What do you get when you put one of the most undervalued home pitchers in baseball up against a public favorite team being backed by an overachieving pitcher? Value. Although I have seen Lowry come with much more value in his home starts, he is still being priced below his worth. He has rebounded well from his injury plagued season of last year, and continues to put forth his best work at home, where he comes into today’s game with a 2.84 home ERA. He has been one of the best home pitchers in baseball over the last three years, as his career home ERA is 3.24, as the park compliments his fly ball pitching style. Most of Lowry’s success this year has been a product of being able to dominate left handed bats. Left handed hitters are batting just .107 against him, which does not bode well for the Phillies chances, as their most dangerous hitters bat from the left side. Lowry’s career numbers against the Phillies are inflated from one horrible road start against them. There is only one hitter in today’s lineup with at least ten at bats against him. He is a workhorse that could avoid a front end of a bullpen.

It is only a matter of time until Leiber reverts to the pitcher he is- very mediocre. His career is in a downward trend, making it only a matter of time until he comes back to earth. Last week may be a sign of things to come, as he really struggled with his control, walling seven batters. Not many pitchers last as long as he has while struggling so much against left handed hitters throughout his career, as they are batting .309 lifetime against him. This does not bode well for his chances, as the Giants may throw five left handed bats at him in this game. There are a few hitters that should be in today’s lineup that have dominated Leiber throughout his career. He is backed by a bullpen that has been overachieving all year, and now lacks an experienced closer with Gordon put on the DL.
 

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Padres @ Marlins
Play: Padres +106
Intrinsic Value: -110
Consider Betting Price: +105
Comment:
I am not a fan of Wells, and his recent pitching woes coupled with going up against one of the hottest lineups in baseball would lead one to believe he is in for a long day. However, I like how he matches up against a young, aggressive Marlins lineup. He has had past success against them, as he feeds off a lack of patience at the plate. It was only a week ago when this Marlins lineup was thoroughly dominated by a crafty veteran in Moyer, as they clearly showed again that day that they match up much better against power pitchers. Wells should also benefit from the home plate umpires large strike zone. If the Marlins can not get to Wells, they should have trouble scoring throughout this game, as he is backed by the best bullpen in the National League. Home field advantage is minimized in this game, as both lineups have been more productive on the road the last three years.

Mitre is not an ideal pitcher to bet on, especially when backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Although he has shown a good amount of command, his assets should be countered by going up against a patient lineup. Mitre is very hittable, and has been owned by left handed hitters throughout his career, as they are batting .350 lifetime against him. This does not bode well for his chances, as the Padres can put five or six left handed bats in the lineup to take advantage of this deficiency. It is no surprise that Mitre has struggled against this team in past years, and the three hitters with the most at bats against him have hit him well. The Padres should be able to have scoring opportunities throughout this game, as he is backed by a bullpen that has been allowing runs and a dangerous rate.
 

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Indians @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -104
Intrinsic Value: -129
Consider Betting Price: -115
Comment:
Although this bet has its fair share of risks, such as Cabrera returning to the wild child last week, and is now going up against one of the most patient lineups in baseball, I feel that the market price reflects this risk. Despite walking 11 batters in the last two games, I still think Cabrera has much better command and control of his pitches this year compared to years past. If he could find this command once again, he could dominate any lineup in the league. He showed that to be the case against the Indians last year, where he pitched seven shutout innings against them. He has always been a better pitcher at home, and his ability to pitch to left handed hitters effectively should allow him to match up decently against this Indians lineup. Unlike past years, he is also backed by a solid bullpen, which should give the Orioles the advantage in the later innings, like yesterday.

I am a fan of Sowers, but it appears the league may be catching up to him right now. He had an embedded advantage over the hitters last years, as his disparity of pitches could be overwhelming and tough to time. However, this advantage is quickly going away, and he is now starting to struggle against lineups that have seen him in the past. The Orioles got a good look at him last week, and dominated him in his only start against them last year. He has yet to prove to be an effective pitcher on the road, as he comes into today’s game with a road ERA now approaching five. Right handed hitters are starting to hit him really well. He is also backed by a sub par bullpen.
 

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Pirates @ Brewers
Play: Pirates +150
Intrinsic Value: +114
Consider Betting Price: +148
Comment:

Although I lost badly on the Pirates last night, I have no problem going against the, as the Brewers continue to be really overvalued. Their hot streak and solid play is more than reflected in the market price. Sooner or later, Duke will find that pitching level he was at late last year and the year prior. He has put forth two solid outings in a row. Although he was dominated by the Brewers in his only start against them this year, he has put forth solid starts against them in the past, and is more vulnerable against more right handed loaded lineups. He is backed by a decent bullpen, allowing the Pirates to put forth better pitchers than the market price suggests.

Suppan has been as solid as it gets since last years all star break. However, I continue to doubt the sustainability of this pitching level. He continues to struggle against left handed hitters, and really needs pinpoint command to be effective, as he lacks overpowering stuff to challenge hitters with. The Pirates have seen a lot of him the last few years, and were able to dominate him last year. This overachieving starter is also backed by an overachieving bullpen that is being valued above their true worth. Pure value play.
 

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A’s @ Devil Rays
Play: Devil Rays -138
Intrinsic Value: -163
Consider Betting Price: -148
Comment:
The A’s are just not a very good team right now. This holds especially true when they are not starting one of there dominant pitchers, which is the case today, despite Kennedy’s solid numbers. Kennedy’s WHIP and well hit balls suggest that is only a matter of time until he reverts to the pitcher he once was- average. Teams have been making solid contact against him, and he will allow his fair share of walks. It is only a matter of time until this results in runs, and this may be a good time for that to happen, as he faces a very dangerous and underrated home lineup. Kennedy is also most vulnerable against right handed hitters, which is predominantly what he will be up against in this game. He is easier to steal against compared to most southpaws, a variable that holds especially true with Kendall behind home plate, a catcher that can’t throw anyone out. This is not something you want against the fastest team in baseball, who could turn Kennedy’s walks into doubles.

Kazmir seems to have found his groove, as he has put forth two solid starts in a row, including a road one last week against the A’s. He now gets another chances against them at home, where he has always been a much more dominant pitcher. The A’s have the worst lineup in baseball. This holds especially true with all the injuries they are dealing with. Kazmir has always had past success against this team, and fundamentally matches up well against them. The A’s are no longer an ideal candidate to work pitch counts, which should allow Kazmir to eat up more innings that he is accustomed to, and avoid a horrible underbelly of a Drays bullpen. If he could go seven strong like he did last week against the A’s, the A’s will have really one inning where their lineup holds the advantage, as the Drays appear to have finally found a closer.
 

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Blue Jays @ Rangers
Play: Rangers +150
Intrinsic Value: +110
Consider Betting Price: +136
Comment:
There is no denying that Holliday is a top tier pitcher in the league. However, the asset he brings to the table is fully reflected in the market price, and then some. The Rangers are also a team that has always given him problems, as he comes into today’s game with a career ERA over five against them. Most of his problems have also occurred in this park, where he has also allowed a good amount of home runs. There exists three dangerous hitters that have had good success against him throughout there career, and if he continues to struggle against this team more than most, he will find it hard to go deep into games like he is accustomed to doing. This also does not bode well for the Blue Jays chances, as they do not have a good bullpen without Ryan. This is a series in which home field advantage is magnified, as both lineups hit much better at home.

I am starting to give up on Padilla, and am coming to realize that he will probably never be a pitcher that will pitch to his potential. However, he still has the ability to put fort solid outings every now and then, and is a dangerous home underdog. Part of this years struggle has also been the fact that he has pitched on the road in five of his six starts, and has always been a much better home pitcher, where he seems to pitch with a lot more motivation. He has put forth solid outings against the Blue Jays in the past, and is still one of the best pitchers in baseball against right handed hitters. This does not bode well for the Blue Jays chances, as they are loaded from the right side. He is also backed by the better bullpen. The Blue Jays are slumping, and are not very dangerous outside of their home park. They will also more than likely be without their best hitter, Wells, once again today.
 

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Mitre does look bad. Florida available bullpen is evaluated by covers as 2.84 era however so not understanding remarks about terrible bullpen. GL
 

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yet another very nice night last night buffett. once again, the one play i went against you...the indians...i got burned on. i wont make that mistake again today as im with you on all 6 plays. i especially like the giants, padres and drays plays. last night i added over marlins and yanks game for a very nice night.

the other games id like to take a look at are the braves and mets and yankees. hudson dominate this year and for his career agains the dodgers. vice versa for lowe.

mets own dbacks in arizona and are getting nice value as a dog, which will be rare this year. im aware that webb is rounding into form nicely.

i think wang will be much better today after shaking off a bit of rust. jeff weaver may be the worst pitcher in baseball. and era in the high teens! he needs to be out of the majors. he got rocked by the royals, yes the royals last time out. what do you think the best lineup in baseball will do to this guy? i like the yankees -1.5 -140 today.


look to continue my roll in the nba tonight. please take the bulls and the jazz plus the points. i have been perfect in the jazz series, essentially riding the home team each play. however, the jazz have looked like the better and deeper team playing on the road in this series. buy the half pt up to 6 if you have to. i may take a flyer on the moneyline, but not making that an official play

the bulls on the other hand have gotten better as the season as progressed. they play the pistons very well, having won the season series including at least one win in blowout fashion. win the pistons have won, the games have been very close. detroit will have a problem with the speed and quickness of the bulls team. the lack of a true post up player for the pistons, will diminish their ability to attack on the inside. that being said, the bulls are one of the best all around defensive teams. they will not have to double the pistons much, but when they do they have the ability to rotate quickly. i think the bulls have an excellent chance to win this game and the series outright. take the bulls +5 tonight.

buffett, any chance you can post your values for tomorrows games sometime tongiht? i have to leave early in the am and would like to see what you are considering tomorrow. if not, no sweat. thanks a bunch
 

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+3.06 Yesterday

+47.31 TYD

You ever have one of those dreams you don't want to wake up from????

This is it........
 

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Thanks fellas.

Finite,
The Marlins bullpen ERA is over 4. Covers only counts players currently on the roster, which is fine. However, their bullpen is young, raw, volitile, and are overachieving a bit. They have some live arms that throw hard and have a lot of movement, but until they show some longer term consistency, they are a liability imo.

Finman,
Nice work in the NBA. I am almost done deriving my values on tommrrow's game. I will post them in this thread in about 20 mins. There is not a lot of games I am capping tommorrow, as I am not deriving values just yet on a lot of starters on tommorrow's card.
 

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Lines on tommorrow's games are not out yet, but my guess is that the only game that will be trading at a price better than my consider betting price are the White Sox ( should open around +125 is my guess). Regardless, tommorrow's card should be a small one. The line I am most interested to see where it opens is the Giants line. I have been following Lincecum closely for a couple of years now, and the guy is as impressive as a prospect can get. It should be interesting to see what books think of him right off the bat.


Dodgers IV: -102 Consider Betting +122
Braves IV +102 CB: +124

Padres IV: -134 CB: -116
Marlins IV: +134 CB +170

Brewers IV -191 CB: -173
Pirates IV: +191 CB: +226

Reds IV: -146 CB: -131
Rockies IV +146 CB: +176

White Sox IV -108 CB: +106
LAA IV +108 CB: +126

Phillies IV -102 CB +116
Giants IV +102 CB +126
 

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Question for OSU

+3.06 Yesterday

+47.31 TYD


So when figuring these out is it by betting the same amount on each play or by betting to win the same amount each time. Last night I bet an equal amount amount on each play. Definately a great night( thanks BG), should I be playing to win $50 instead of betting $50?

Thanks in advance.
 

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+3.06 Yesterday

+47.31 TYD


So when figuring these out is it by betting the same amount on each play or by betting to win the same amount each time. Last night I bet an equal amount amount on each play. Definately a great night( thanks BG), should I be playing to win $50 instead of betting $50?

Thanks in advance.


In bases, you usually bet to win the amount your looking for. -150 bet $75 to win $50, +200 bet $25 to win $50
 

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OSU,
Do you have a record here for BG? W-L I mean? Would like to know what the winning % here is b/c I am sure it is enormous.
 

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OSU,
Do you have a record here for BG? W-L I mean? Would like to know what the winning % here is b/c I am sure it is enormous.

If you asked my local guy who cut me off this week it is 1000000000-0. But I don't have the actual W-L record. If you are dying to know use the search button to find all of Buffettgamblers threads and add em up. It has to be a sick number.

You have found the best. Just ride the horse til your pockets are full.

Travis
 

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thanks a bunch buffett. do you mind if i ask what you do for a living (might be killing in baseball)? quantam physics, statistical theory? im very impressed to say the least.
 

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