Boxslayer's MLB Sunday (79-66, +34.85)

Boxslayer · May 6, 2007

79-66, +34.85
4-1, +5.65

4 straight big winning days since cutting back on plays and making an adjustment. Really starting to roll right now. Had a great day yesterday overall, winning big in baseball, had the Pistons in basketball and GS the night before, had a winning bet on every fight on the card last night, and only loss was my boy Scat Daddy putting out a horrendous showing in the Derby. I'm hot right now, and another cashout is on the horizon. Want to break through to 40 units and start rolling towards 150+. Good luck on your action today. Here's what I'm personally playing today:

1* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -110

Sheets, like most power pitchers, relies heavily on a power curve to be effective. According to Sheets, he has made an adjustment during mid start bullpens to his curve, and it was working for him last game. Like I've said before, especially about guys like Rich Hill and Barry Zito who rely heavily on the curveball, it is a feel pitch. When it is working, you gotta bet on these guys while they have the feel for it. When they lose it, you gotta fade them. While Sheets can be effective enough to win without his curveball working, he can be dominant when it is on. With the Brewers rolling right now, they have the opportunity for the home sweep of Pittsburgh. Tony Armas will square off vs. Sheets, and Armas is just overmatched in this game. He has struggled pitching away from home, and in order to get through this aggressive Brewer lineup today and get a win, he'll have to hold down this hot Brewer lineup, while his Pirate lineup will have to find a way to put up 3-5 runs on Sheets. I just don't see it happening. Brewers are rolling right now, and they expect to win everytime they come out to the yard. Staying with them here.

Boxslayer · May 6, 2007

1* Padres/Marlins under 8.5 -110

Jake Peavy is one of my faorite pitchers in the bigs because his stuff is not just overpowering, but he has the nastiest movement in baseball. His run and sink on his fastball can get in on right handed hitters, and runs away from left-handed batters. Marlins struggle with pitchers that are crafty, and/or have movement. After pitching on Team USA last summer for the WBC, Peavy was burnt out last year. This year, he is back to form, and is a solid bet everytime out to put together a solid performance. His last few outings have been flat out dominant. And thse young Marlin hitters that have shredded through average MLB pitching, will have a tall task today. Scott Olsen is another young pitcher that has been great. Olsen pitches better at home, and the Padre bats just never seem to give Peavy run support. This play stays small at 1* because of bullpen issues from Florida, especially after the extra inning game last night.

Boxslayer · May 6, 2007

2* Toronto Bluejays -122
1* Toronto Bluejays -1.5 +120

I like the Bluejays here to avoid the sweep in Texas. Texas has had Toronto's number, particularly in Texas, but there is one thing about AJ Burnett that I have noticed through the years, and that is that he always seems to step up when his team needs him most. His team needs him here to avoid the sweep and losing 6 straight, and this isnt a situation I like betting on a team, hence the 2*/1* instead of 3*/1*, but I still like this spot. Bluejays are 6-1 when Burnett starts a pivotol game 3, and Burnett is 7-0 when he pitches following a Bluejays loss. After shutting down the Yankees, Burnett had his let down game last game. But I think this is a great bounceback spot for him and a spot to get back on track. He faces off vs. Kameron Loe, who has not taken well to being a starter. Loe has been shelled, and he'll face a top 5 offense in baseball today, that despite losing 5 straight, has been battling. The Bluejays losing streak is rare because it hasnt been because of lack of hitting. Usually when teams are on losing streaks, you can point to a slump from the lineup. Bluejays have hit 8 hits/4runs, 9hits/5runs, 12 hits/6runs, 6 hits/5runs in 4 of their 5 losses. Bluejyas have averaged about 4-5 runs a game in their losses. So they havent been getting the pitching, and that was obvious as Halladay got hanlded yesterday. So if they can get a good outing from their starter, this is a very good team, and thats what I anticipate today from AJ Burnett who can be dominant, vs. Kameron Loe, who has been performing terribly as his temporary role as a starter.

That's all for today. Will probably have a play on tonight's SNB.

Good luck

ssbowtie1 · May 6, 2007

Hey Box great job so far. I was wondering if you had any comments regarding Chop's big game today? Would like to hear your insight.

Stay hot.

Boxslayer · May 6, 2007

ssbowtie1 said:
Hey Box great job so far. I was wondering if you had any comments regarding Chop's big game today? Would like to hear your insight.

Stay hot.

I've seen Chop's post, and definitely respect his baseball handicapping.

I am very familiar with Lincecum from multiple perspectives as I've seen him pitch in-person in the minors, and followed his career at Washington when he popped up on the map. He will be the real deal in this league, but he has a hard time locating his curveball. When it is on, he is tough to hit. When he loses feel, he has a hard time locating it, then he cuts back on the velocity of the pitch, tries to guide it over the plate, and he becomes hittable. With Barry Bonds sitting out today, this Giants lineup becomes VERY weak. If there are any hitters in baseball that love sitting dead red on fastballs it is Chase Utley and Ryan Howard. With Cole Hamels having the experience edge over Lincecum, and this game being on Sunday Night Baseball, this is too big of a step up for Lincecum.

He'll run his fastball in the upper 90's and he has touched a 100 a few times, but he isn't like Zumaya, where he sits at 100. However, with the adrenaline tonight, he may over throw, he could sit 98-99, but he may be up in the zone from overthrowing. Either way, Philly has some live bats in that lineup and although Lincecum is undervalued at +125 considering what we will be in the long haul, he is still making his 1st major league start on a very big stage vs. some very good hitters in this Phillies lineup. The Big Leagues is a wholw new ballgame, and at +125, I think the books are giving this kid the respect he deserves as you rarely see a rookie step in in his 1st start, especially with Bonds out of the lineup and facing an elite pitcher like Cole Hamels, and get +125 respect.

I will most likely be on Philly this game, but will definitely be on Lincecum while he remains undervalued over his next few starts.

I don't like him being on SNB. I would preferred his 1st start be an under the radar day game.