Jibba's Monday MLB

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Favorites: 72-39 for +16.03 units
Underdogs: 24-19 +11.81 units
Total: 87-50 for +27.84 units

Run Lines: 2-2 +0.38 units
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Philly is still pending as a 1 unit play. Ended up adding to my play but didn't get it posted. Hope the Phils can hang on.

A few really tough losses today which prevented a very good day. Still up about a unit and a half with the Philly game pending. Want to get these early plays out before hitting the sack.

LA Dodgers -115: As I said today, the Dodgers have played very well this year on the road (10-6 after today). If not for a late meltdown today, they would have added another win to their road record. I think they get it done tomorrow against Ricky Nolasco. In Penny's 2 road starts this year (14 IPs), he's given up 2 ERs. I think his road succcess continues against a Marlins team that has started to fade lately. 1.73 units to win 1.5.

Houston -140: This one is all about Oswalt. In 21 starts, Oswalt is 18-1 against the Reds with a 2.46 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP, and a .228 BAA. He shut down the Reds last week with 8 solid 4 hit innings without the use of the strikeout (2 on the day, although he generally doesn't seem to be picking up the Ks like he has in the past). 2.10 units to win 1.5.

Cleveland -123: I think Carmona has very impressive stuff. And he really just dominated this Orioles lineup a week or so ago. After being sent to the minors and then recalled because of an injury to Westbrook, I think he'll be hungry to prove he belongs. Trachsel has not had success against the Tribe in the past (2-4 in 6 starts with a 6+ ERA) and I don't think he can keep this Cleveland offense to 2 runs (in 5+ innings) twice in a week. 1.23 units to win 1.

Currently have leans on Seattle, San Diego, and San Fran. Hope everyone made some money this weekend. BOL tomorrow.
 

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Thanks oatmeal.

Going to add one more for now:

San Francisco -106: Up until tonight I've been riding San Fran hard at home. And they've been pretty good to me. I'll get back on board for tomorrow night's game against the Mets and Odalis Perez. Barry Zito has really started turning it on lately, giving up only 5 ERs and 17 hits over his last 4 starts (27.1 IPs). The Mets have hit lefties very well so far this year but Zito is a different breed than your average lefty. They've also played very well on the road this year, but the goings will be much tougher in San Francisco where the Giants have won 9 or 11 (9 of 12 I believe if they lose tonight). They are also 7-2 in their last 9 games as home favorites, so they've generally been winning the games they should be winning. Against Odalis Perez, I think this game is one of them.

Speaking of Perez, do people really think he's turned a corner and is no longer the pitcher who put up an ERA of around 6 the past two years, or the one who had a BAA of around .290 last year? Maybe I'm not giving him enough credit, but I just think this is a huge pitching mismatch. Factor in that Perez is 0-3 in 6 career starts against the Giants with a 6.60 ERA and a 1.73 WHIP, and the mismatch becomes even clearer. Finally, he's had 3 starts in AT&T Field and put up a 5.63 ERA. Makes the Giants a clear play IMO. 1.06 units to win 1.
 

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Its Oliver Perez not Odalis...Just want to make sure you capped the right Perez as Odalis used to pitch for the Dodgers.
 

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Its Oliver Perez not Odalis...Just want to make sure you capped the right Perez as Odalis used to pitch for the Dodgers.

:lol:

Yeah, knew it was Oliver but slipped up when posting it. Odalis and Oliver have both actually burned me this year so far. Thanks for catching that.

Thanks Dsethi. BOL.
 

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gl jibba i'm on two of yours, Dodgers an Astros, gotta ride that Oswalt streak, dam 18-1 fascinating anyways good luck my man lets do this!

ty,mudder:toast:
 

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Thanks Mudder. BOL today.

Adding:

St. Louis -120: I've faded Anthony Reyes in every one of his starts so far this year (or at very least in 4 of 5). But today I'm going the other way as I think the kid finally notches a win this year. It seems that the books have not adjusted to the fact that the Cards and Reyes are finally starting to play solid ball (even though it's yet to really show up in the results). In his last 2 starts, Reyes has allowed a mere 7 hits in 12 innings while striking out 13. And tonight he faces a Rockies team that has not been good on the road this year (although I think they finally won their first road series, against the Reds).

The Cards have had a lot of success against the Rockies at home recently, going 5-1 against them in Busch Stadium last year. And not much has changed with Colorado. They are just a bad road team so far this year, going 7-11 (2nd worst in NL). This game is also a good spot for Pujols to get back on track after looking like he was finally starting to really turn it on last week (6 hits in the MIL series, but followed with only 1 hit in the HOU series). In his career, Pujols is batting .366 against Colorado while slugging .775 with an OPS of 1.239. In 19 home games against the Rockies, he's never gone without a hit and is batting .403 with 8 HRs and 19 RBIs. Last season alone, Pujols went 7 for 18 with 3 HRs against the Rockies in Busch Stadium. I think this continues against Jeff Francis tonight, whom he is 3 for 6 against with 3 walks in his career.

Speaking of Francis, although he's pitched well against the Cards in the past, his better performances against the team have come in the comfy confines of Coors Field. He just isn't a good road starter though, even though he's admittedly been decent on the road so far this year. In his career, Francis is 13-18 and has a 5.20 ERA on the road. I think the price is right to finally take Anthony Reyes. 1.20 units to win 1.

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Still have a lean on San Diego +120, and it will basically be a play at this point, but I don't know which way this line will move (started out at +113 or so). I also have a lean on the Milwaukee run line +104. BOL to everyone today.
 

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i agree with all your plays jibba, but id stay away from the mariners yanks game with a new pitcher for the yanks. as usual the yanks could club their way to a victory. they might be buoyed by the fact that roger is coming back.

my eyes lit up when i first saw the astros and the dodgers lines. those are 2 horrible lines. im 6-0 in runlines this year and like the brew crew to get it done like you mentioned. i may play every game on the board but the yanks game.

1-0 in the nba yesterday, not sure if you saw my late post sat on that game. hit on the nets. i was leaning on the spurs but never posted it and didnt play it. not sure if im playing the nba tonight. the bulls shocked me how bad they were the other nigth. hard to see another blowout.. ill stay away. ive been riding the warriors hard these playoffs, but this may not be the best matchup. i think they would have destroyed the rockets. i dont think they have any answer for boozer and i think deron williams can play okay defense on baron davis. harpring is also a hard nosed player. al harrington will have to play a big role here imo. joe public is all over the warriors. line has dropped. jazz off a long series however. can the warriors ride the momentum? i might just sit back and watch the first game. gl jibba
 

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actually have no opinion on the phillies/dbacks game. forgot about that one
 

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i agree with all your plays jibba, but id stay away from the mariners yanks game with a new pitcher for the yanks. as usual the yanks could club their way to a victory. they might be buoyed by the fact that roger is coming back.

my eyes lit up when i first saw the astros and the dodgers lines. those are 2 horrible lines. im 6-0 in runlines this year and like the brew crew to get it done like you mentioned. i may play every game on the board but the yanks game.

1-0 in the nba yesterday, not sure if you saw my late post sat on that game. hit on the nets. i was leaning on the spurs but never posted it and didnt play it. not sure if im playing the nba tonight. the bulls shocked me how bad they were the other nigth. hard to see another blowout.. ill stay away. ive been riding the warriors hard these playoffs, but this may not be the best matchup. i think they would have destroyed the rockets. i dont think they have any answer for boozer and i think deron williams can play okay defense on baron davis. harpring is also a hard nosed player. al harrington will have to play a big role here imo. joe public is all over the warriors. line has dropped. jazz off a long series however. can the warriors ride the momentum? i might just sit back and watch the first game. gl jibba

Yeah, I'm leaning toward just staying away from the Yanks game. Over looks like a possibility, but I almost never play totals. Glad to see you like the Astros and Dodgers. Felt really good about those ones. Dodgers line has moved about 10 cents but the Houston line is down to -131 on MB (I actually ended up getting -132 on this one but will stick with the -140 VIP line I posted last night obviously for record purposes).

Will probably end up on that Brewers runline. Just have been focusing a lot on the San Diego game and line the past hour or so. Already have my writeup pretty much ready to go but I think the line might get a little better for a Padres play (although I'm usually wrong with line movements). I also have no opinion right now on the Phils game. Haven't even capped it yet, although I probably will after lunch. My gut says it will not be a play though. Maybe BG will be on that one though.

Let me know if you decide to make an NBA play today. May even head over to the NBA forum and see what people think over there. Also, thanks for the info on the Cleveland line. Hadn't even been watching it. BOL on your plays today.
 

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no sweat. i was hoping to get the total on the bulls game to over adjusted for the low output the first game, but not dice. was leaning on the over in the gs game, but its gone up. i think the jazz are willing to run with them a bit.

tomorrow leaning on the nets and maybe a moneyline on them as well. suns are a bit overpriced now even though i like them in game 2. will keep you posted
 

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oops forgot that indians game is early today. you have any feeling on the over in that one?
 

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oops forgot that indians game is early today. you have any feeling on the over in that one?

It's really tough to say what Trachsel will do today. I think Carmona will pitch a nice game, but Trachsel could come out looking good like he did a week or so against the Tribe, or he could give up 3 HRs to this offense. Never been very comfortable doing totals in MLB so I generally stay away.
 

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Still holding off on San Diego for the moment, but will probably have it in shortly. Have seen some surprising line movements in some of the games I played last night, but won't let it discourage me.

I don't want to get too comfortable with run lines, but I'm going with another one today.

Milwaukee -1.5, -107: I put this one off because I was too caught up in researching the SD game, but with the line moving I can't wait any longer. I just can't see the Nats keeping this one close. We all know how bad Chico has been (6.59 ERA, 2.09 WHIP, .322 BAA), and he's even worse on the road (7.62 ERA, 2.31 WHIP). His longest stint of the season was 5.1 innings and he's only gone 13.2 in his last 3 starts. And we all know what to expect if this one gets into the hands of Washington's bullpen. Whether it be Chico or the Nats' bullpen, I think the Brewers' offense will have some fun today. The Brewers so far this year are tied for best in the league with 54 runs scored against lefties and are batting .277 against them. They've also scored a whopping 106 runs at home this year (11 more than any other team in baseball) and are 4th in the league with a .290 BA at home. This might explain why they are a very impressive 13-5 at home this year (Nats are 5-12 on the road).

On the moung, Milwaukee will have Chris Capuano, who has been very solid thus far. He may not be the type of pitcher to go deep into a game, but Milwaukee's bullpen has some pretty solid pitchers. I just don't see this one staying even remotely close. For now though, it will just be a standard play. 1.07 units to win 1.
 

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Forgot to give my updated record after last night's win.

Favorites: 73-39 for +17.03 units
Underdogs: 24-19 +11.81 units
Total: 87-50 for +28.84 units

Run Lines: 2-2 +0.38 units
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Just don't know which way this one may move, so I'm going to take the +120 while I can (VIP).

San Diego +120: I'm not big on playing trends, but it seems that there are a boatload of them pointing to a Padres play tonight. First, we all know that Young is best known for his road success after he went 25 straight road starts without a loss. This year he has not looked nearly as good on the road, but part of that may be to the fact that he is not a solid April starter. The month of May, however, is a whole other story. In his career, Young is 6-1 in 12 starts in the month of May, with a 2.57 ERA, a 1.14 WHIP, and a .230 BAA. And he couldn't have started off this May much better, giving up 3 hits and 0 runs while striking out 8 in 8 innings on May 1st (yes ... it was against the lowly Nats, but still . . . ). Crazy enough, the kid is even better in June. But that's for another day and another thread.

The Padres also have a very nice trend coming into May. Since 2005, the Padres are 45-17 in the month of May, including 4-1 this year. And I believe more of those games were on the road than at home. While there is only so much stock you can put into a stat like this, at very least it gives the Padres a solid boost of confidence (this record is very well known among all the Padres' players), which can make a world of difference in baseball.

Chuck James is one of the better young pitchers in baseball right now. There's no doubt about that, and it is certainly tough to go against him at home. But he simply hasn't been all that great so far this year. He's gone 6 innings only once, and in his last 4 starts (20.2 IPs) he's given up 16 runs and 29 hits (he even managed to pick up a loss against the Nats). As much as I think the kid has very solid stuff, I have to go with Young in this matchup. 1.5 units to win 1.8.
 

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