Padres @ Braves
Play: Padres +118
Intrinsic Value: -115
Consider Betting Price: -103
Comment:
It is no surprise here that Young is once again undervalued on the road, as he has consistently been such throughout his career. Although he has had a couple of rough outings, Young is once again quietly putting forth a solid year. He has been nearly unhittable for right handed hitters, which is a huge asset going up against this Braves lineup. Although he has not put forth the most impressive road numbers so far year to date, he has proven to be one of the most effective pitchers away from home the last couple of years. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.35 road ERA. Although he struggled against this Braves lineup last year, I don’t think it lacks sustainability. Not only were both his starts against them at home, where he has never pitched terribly well, but this lineup doesn’t fundamentally match up well with his style of pitching. He dominated them a couple years ago in his only start against them. Being a fly ball pitcher, he should also be helped out by the spacious outfield of this park. Being backed by the best bullpen in the National League should allow the Padres to put forth quality pitchers throughout this game, curtailing the effects of this Braves lineup. Although the Braves have been one of the most impressive hitting teams in baseball, expect their run productivity to slow down a bit, as their two out hitting can not sustain the current rate.
James just isn’t fooling the hitters like he did last year. His deceptive delivery and nice speed disparity made it really tough on hitters to time last year, which was a huge embedded advantage that allowed him to put forth impressive stats. Although he has the makings of being a solid pitcher, it appears that the league has caught up to him a bit. He has been much more hittable, and right handed bats have been dominating him. He also appears vulnerable to the home run ball of late, allowing five in his last three starts. Despite being a lineup loaded from the left side, the Padres roughed James up last year in his only start against them, and have been hitting southpaws better than right handed pitchers this year. They are also a team that consistently hits the ball better away from home. Although the Braves have an improved and solid bullpen, this is one series in which they do not have a bullpen advantage.
Play: Padres +118
Intrinsic Value: -115
Consider Betting Price: -103
Comment:
It is no surprise here that Young is once again undervalued on the road, as he has consistently been such throughout his career. Although he has had a couple of rough outings, Young is once again quietly putting forth a solid year. He has been nearly unhittable for right handed hitters, which is a huge asset going up against this Braves lineup. Although he has not put forth the most impressive road numbers so far year to date, he has proven to be one of the most effective pitchers away from home the last couple of years. He comes into today’s game with a career 3.35 road ERA. Although he struggled against this Braves lineup last year, I don’t think it lacks sustainability. Not only were both his starts against them at home, where he has never pitched terribly well, but this lineup doesn’t fundamentally match up well with his style of pitching. He dominated them a couple years ago in his only start against them. Being a fly ball pitcher, he should also be helped out by the spacious outfield of this park. Being backed by the best bullpen in the National League should allow the Padres to put forth quality pitchers throughout this game, curtailing the effects of this Braves lineup. Although the Braves have been one of the most impressive hitting teams in baseball, expect their run productivity to slow down a bit, as their two out hitting can not sustain the current rate.
James just isn’t fooling the hitters like he did last year. His deceptive delivery and nice speed disparity made it really tough on hitters to time last year, which was a huge embedded advantage that allowed him to put forth impressive stats. Although he has the makings of being a solid pitcher, it appears that the league has caught up to him a bit. He has been much more hittable, and right handed bats have been dominating him. He also appears vulnerable to the home run ball of late, allowing five in his last three starts. Despite being a lineup loaded from the left side, the Padres roughed James up last year in his only start against them, and have been hitting southpaws better than right handed pitchers this year. They are also a team that consistently hits the ball better away from home. Although the Braves have an improved and solid bullpen, this is one series in which they do not have a bullpen advantage.
