CalvinTy's "Survivor" streak attempt

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Raising 4 girls!
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First of all, I like to tinker with numbers and ideas just like many of us here do. I did watch in interest a few weeks ago when a survivor on Wagerline did finally select 21 consecutive wins to win $100K (a push is considered *not* a loss so any pushes are "ignored").

Then Journeyman mentioned in one thread how doing $1 with progressive double-ups would actually have netted somebody over $100K after ONLY 18 straight wins (Journeyman's post here).

The conversation between Journeyman & Biggamer3 stuck in my mind at that time for me to try something like this in the near future.
13 in a row at a $1 would buy you a nice plasma TV, 14 and you treat yourself to a wave runner...letting it ride past that would be really crazy.
In Theory you are correct, but i dont know one small time bettor who would wager after he reaches 512, i mean if you have the money in front of you, its harder to bet it all, when you have to pick for a contest, its not really ever yours till 21

Its a lot easier said than done
very true...I personally would pull that plug early, I would want to saviour the accomplishment at about 2 dimes.

Finally the time has arrived for me to do something like this for FUN! I agreed with the conversation above that I told myself, "If I make one 8-game-in-a-row, I'd rather to pull the plug at $1K... *THEN* make several more attempts at $1 to reach $1K *again* as I prefer to win several 8-games-in-a row than attempt a 9th bet (at $2K) bet or 10th bet (at $4K)." Heck, most sportsbooks don't offer those limits anyway.

Now, for those of you who aren't familiar with the free Wagerline contest, you are usually restricted to those picks (again, stress on the usually part):

1.) The ML for a team isn't over -130, which sucks (as well as O/U).
2.) The Survivor consensus on one single pick would have to be under 59% for the side/total to be available (that includes how if many people are on the Under in that game to the tune of 65%, the side of that game is not available!) Basically, sometimes the most desired picks are only available overnight for a few minutes before the consensus makes the pick unavailable.
3.) You need to pick one selection within 7 days of your last pick or your streak is reset.
4.) Prizes for Wagerline's Survivor contest:
  • After 9 consecutive wins, you win a Wagerline branded baseball hat (ARV $16). I missed out on it when I won 8 in a row right after starting to play this contest there. Okay, no biggie. :)
  • After 13 consecutive wins, you win a Wagerline branded wind-breaker-style jacket (ARV $44). That is quite a small prize for 13 in a row, but okay.....
  • After 17 consecutive wins, you finally win hard-earned cash in the tune of $1,000. Yes, just 1 dime, but for a free contest, nobody should complain at that point... yet it bugged me.
  • After 21 consecutive wins, now the grand prize is $100K & well worth the goal. But, alas, since "Tuppy" at Wagerline won the top prize, the grand prize for the rest of 2007 calendar year is now just $10K. Forget it.
By making my own streak attempt, I can bypass all those rules & do whatever I want, including picking a -200 favorite or making a pick that 95% of the RX'ers are on.

I wanted to start the attempt by just playing MLB picks (ML, O/U, RL, ARL, first 5 innings, even props but I won't bother with props) so that's why I just put in the MLB thread instead of Offshore. I don't care about views or if nobody follows this stuff, really. :103631605

My guidelines are simple:

1.) I will make actual bets at the same book for each string of bets, which most likely will be Bodog. It'd be fitting to let them be the 1st book since they sponsor the free Wagerline contest, LOL.
2.) My first pick *has* to be an underdog since Bodog (and other books) do not let you to bet less than $1.00 (i.e. if playing a favorite, can't play a -150 favorite by risking the whole $1.00 to win just $0.67. Both amounts have to be at least $1.00.)
2.) I will make another $1 attempt after a loss at any bet level.
3.) I think I'll start with some baby steps and just aim for 12 straight wins based on this snapshot in my Excel file. I'm only showing bets 13-15 for illustrative purposes, grins.

survivorjv2.jpg


4.) By now, some of you may look at the above & scratch your head on what the heck I'm doing with the prices. I guess I was playing around with just how many bets I needed at various prices to reach $1K. That's how I came to this plan above. I decided not to do something like playing a -200 favorite early in the streak because my return would be considerably small & increase the number of bets I'd have to make to reach $1K. The numbers are based on exactly the prices (i.e. at least +120 in the 1st bet; at least +110 for the 2nd bet; at least +100 for the 3rd bet; no more than -110 for the 4th bet & so on).

5.) I will try to imitate the prices as I progress, but obviously, if I choose to make a bet on a cheaper favorite than required, it just would help me to make a bit more than $1K by the 12th win (if I ever get to that, LOL).

6.) I'm going to guess I'd try this for the rest of the season so I'd imagine I would give myself a $100 "bankroll" to make 100 attempts before calling it quits or if interest fades for this.

Finally, I'll *ATTEMPT* to post a pick probably everyday & even two in one day if circumstances permit. My pick would almost always be picking from a RX capper (as I don't really cap games much).

My 1st pick is coming next.

* CalvinTy
 

Raising 4 girls!
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May 7th pick

Attempt 1, Bet #1:

Atlanta Braves-1½ (+165)

===actual bet===
Single Bet Details
Atlanta Braves-1½ (+165)
Baseball - MLBNATIONAL LEAGUE - Runline
Mon@7:05p
Game must go 9 innings (8.5 if home team is ahead) or this pick is NO ACTION.
Chris Young (R) must throw first pitch for San Diego Padres or this pick is NO ACTION.
Chuck James (L) must throw first pitch for Atlanta Braves or this pick is NO ACTION.
Risk Details
Risked $1.00 to win $1.65
===

* CalvinTy
 
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I Am Along For The Ride. Bm Will Allow You 1.00 Bets Also. Just For The Record. What The Hell Starting With Only A 1.00. No Worse Than A Lottery Ticket
 

Raising 4 girls!
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Good luck Calvin. Interesting idea.
Thanks, rouxdogg.
I Am Along For The Ride. Bm Will Allow You 1.00 Bets Also. Just For The Record. What The Hell Starting With Only A 1.00. No Worse Than A Lottery Ticket
Yes, I'll use BetJam for some of the attempts since they offer many lines overnight that I can hit early if I need to.

Haha, I wanted to start at $1 because I know I will lose many times, I'm sure I'd lose some 1st bets or lose a 8th bet, whatever. I guess I'm deciding that that my goal is to reach 12 wins to win $1,000+. It'll be a while before I can even get close.

GL to us!

* CalvinTy
 

Raising 4 girls!
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May 7th result

Attempt 1, Bet #1:

Atlanta Braves-1½ (+165)

LOST (SD 4, ATL 2)

That game was what I expected... but the other way around. Chris Young of SD actually threw a decent game, while Chuck James of ATL struggled mightily and left after 3.2 innings and 94 pitches.

Not a start I was looking for to try to string together a winning streak if I lose the FIRST game! Ha. But in reality, I admit I was grasping for potential picks yesterday on a travel day card.

There were only two underdogs over +120 on the ML yesterday (with others between -110 to +115). So I checked the RL out, and saw a capper pick ATL -1.5 +165 & told myself, "I like Atlanta so why not take that RL."

No worries, I hope to select one good dog (or a fav on the RL) over +120 today for my 2nd attempt. Again, this will be based on RX cappers who have posted before I make the decision of whick pick to use.

Cheers,

* CalvinTy
 

Raising 4 girls!
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May 8th picks

Thought I would start with 3 new attempts to build a $1 bet up survivor-wise. Since I restricted myself to play +120 or higher in the 1st bet level, that's why you will see one dog & 2 favs on RL below.

Note: I checked BetJam & noticed that their minimum wager is actually at $2... for those who're wondering.

Attempt 2, Bet #1
:
Bodog

Pittsburgh Pirates +150

===actual bet===
Baseball - MLB (Game)Moneyline
(957) Pittsburgh Pirates+150 Tue@8:05p
Competitor: (958) Chicago Cubs
* Ian Snell (R) must throw first pitch for Pittsburgh Pirates or this pick is NO ACTION.
* Ted Lilly (L) must throw first pitch for Chicago Cubs or this pick is NO ACTION.
Risk $1.00 to win $1.50
=====

Attempt 3, Bet #1:
Bodog

Baltimore Orioles-1½ (+140)

===actual bet===
Baseball - MLB (Game)Runline
(968) Baltimore Orioles-1½ (+140) Tue@7:05p
Competitor: (967) Tampa Bay Devil Rays
* Game must go 9 innings (8.5 if home team is ahead) or this pick is NO ACTION.
* Jae Seo (R) must throw first pitch for Tampa Bay Devil Rays or this pick is NO ACTION.
* Jeremy Guthrie (R) must throw first pitch for Baltimore Orioles or this pick is NO ACTION.
Risk $1.00 to win $1.40
=====

Attempt 4, Bet #1:
Bodog

Minnesota Twins-1½ (+180)

===actual bet===
Baseball - MLB (Game)Runline
(978) Minnesota Twins-1½ (+180) Tue@8:10p
Competitor: (977) Chicago White Sox
* Game must go 9 innings (8.5 if home team is ahead) or this pick is NO ACTION.
* Javier Vazquez (R) must throw first pitch for Chicago White Sox or this pick is NO ACTION.
* Boof Bonser (R) must throw first pitch for Minnesota Twins or this pick is NO ACTION.
Risk $1.00 to win $1.80
=====

* CalvinTy
 

Raising 4 girls!
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I put mine in already pitt +145
Nice to see that we have the same dog in mind. GL to us!

Why not start at $4.62? You'll have to hit 12 in a row to get 1K instead of 14.
I'm not sure how you came up with $4.62. Could you tell me what you have in mind? The snapshot in the 1st post do show how I can hit 12 in a row to get $1K by using progressive values... starting with dogs & then allowing myself to expand to include more potential picks that are higher favorites as my streak grows, etc.

As you can imagine, if I were to try -200 favorites from the get go, I'd imagine it'd be 18 in a row or something to finally hit $1K (not going to bother to find out, LOL).

Any more feedback, anyone, I'm up for it.

* CalvinTy
 

Self appointed RX World Champion Handicapper
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start with 10 bucks .

play the runline looking for teams that would be -1.5 + 140

hit 6 in a row and i think you have just over 1900 bucks ..

5 in a row gets you $ 800 if my math is right
 

That's what she said
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Isn't bodog max bet like $500 or 1k ? (making 100k if you actually went for it unreachable).
 

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Nice to see that we have the same dog in mind. GL to us!


I'm not sure how you came up with $4.62. Could you tell me what you have in mind? The snapshot in the 1st post do show how I can hit 12 in a row to get $1K by using progressive values... starting with dogs & then allowing myself to expand to include more potential picks that are higher favorites as my streak grows, etc.

As you can imagine, if I were to try -200 favorites from the get go, I'd imagine it'd be 18 in a row or something to finally hit $1K (not going to bother to find out, LOL).

Any more feedback, anyone, I'm up for it.

* CalvinTy

I got that $4.62 from the chart in your first post. Bet No. 3 is $4.62.

I say screw the first two bets (risking $1 and $2.20) because they're basically pointless, given that $4.62 isn't really much to lose.
 

Raising 4 girls!
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BOL, like Pitt tonight as well.
Thanks, Johnny B.

Isn't bodog max bet like $500 or 1k ? (making 100k if you actually went for it unreachable).
Yes, Bodog's maximum amount to win the base amount for MLB's moneylines is $1K. Other than Pinny, there is probably no online book that has a limit high enough to wager 5 figures (for us to make 21 successful double-up bets in a row anyway).

I'm basically looking for a balance where I can try to win "X games in a row" with a low starting amount & taking into consideration the book's minimum & maximum wager limits. *THEN* after making one of those small streaks, I simply rinse & repeat. Doing this twice at 5 different online books where I hit $1K+ would mean I net around $10K profit.

I did more Excel work using ideas above from World Number One & soswalter. Follow-up post on that coming up.

P.S. I am happy to see BAL up, 5-1 so far.

* CalvinTy
 

Raising 4 girls!
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start with 10 bucks .

play the runline looking for teams that would be -1.5 + 140

hit 6 in a row and i think you have just over 1900 bucks ..

5 in a row gets you $ 800 if my math is right
Confirmed as the snapshot below indicates that. It's interesting to consider favorites on the RL & only need to win 5 or 6 times at $10 starting amount to reach $1K every time. Of course, the $10 losses may add up fast so we'd be better off using that once the "first $1K" has been won, probably.

I got that $4.62 from the chart in your first post. Bet No. 3 is $4.62.

I say screw the first two bets (risking $1 and $2.20) because they're basically pointless, given that $4.62 isn't really much to lose.
A very valid point. I decided to test with the $5 amount, and saw how it would shave at least 3 consecutive wins less to be required to reach $1K following the original prices idea (from 12 to 9). As we make bets that are better than the minimum price required, our potential winnings go up so it can be done with just 8 bets using $5 starting amount. Might do that for some attempts in future, especially that BetJam has a minimum of $2 per bet.

Here's the info:

survivor2mt5.jpg


Thanks, everyone! I will see how this goes with puny $1 starting amount. I guess I am figuring that, for now, I can throw in several $1 attempts to see if at least some would go into a winning streak for me to focus more on further.

* CalvinTy
 
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