Jibba's Tuesday MLB

Jibba · May 8, 2007

Money Lines:

Favorites: 76-40 for +20.03 units
Underdogs: 25-19 +13.31 units
Total: 87-50 for +33.34 units

Run Lines: 3-2 +1.88 units
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Thanks for all the kind words in yesterday's thread. Very solid day yesterday going 5-1, hitting on all four 1.5 unit plays, and finishing the day up about 6 units. May be a little slow getting my plays up today. Tough card and I've got a lot of work to do today.

Baltimore -138: Baltimore looked to be coming out of their funk against Cleveland before dropping the last 2 games of the series. But I think they get back on track tonight against the D-Rays and Jae Seo. Seo just looks horrible on the mound this year, especially on the road. Away from the confines of Tropicana park, Seo has an ERA of 10.19, a WHIP of 2.32, and a whopping BAA of .422. In 3 starts on grass, he's somehow even worse (ERA of 13.50, WHIP of 3.00, and BAA of .473). This exactly what the Orioles need right now.

The Orioles have played extremely well against Tampa recently. They have taken 8 of their last 10 against the D-Rays and 14 of 18 at Camden Yards. The Rays have never been a good road team and I'll fade them tonight and hope Guthrie can just avoid being shelled, because I see no reason why Seo won't get roughed up in this one. 1.38 units to win 1.

Have a few leans right now, but need to put in some more work on them before playing them. BOL to everyone on today's cards.

Jibba · May 8, 2007

LA Angels -114: The Indians exploded yesterday on a weak Baltimore bullpen and I think they're in for a letdown today against one of the better young home field pitchers in the league. This season LA is 12-5 in Angel Stadium and should add to that tonight. Ervin Santana takes the hill for LA at home today where he is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and a .200 BAA. Over his last 8 home starts, Santana is 6-0 with a 2.88 ERA. In 33 starts at home over his career he is 21-5 with a 3.01 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .226 BAA. While he has yet to have any success against the Tribe, he has never faced them at home (he is a completely different pitcher on the road, going 9-15 with a 6.66 ERA, a 1.61 WHIP, and a .292 BAA. After Cleveland's offensive explosion yesterday, I would expect a bit of letdown against almost anyone, nevermind against such a solid home starter and team.

The Indians send Cliff Lee to the mound today to make only his second start of the season after allowing 9 hits and 5 runs in 6 innings against the Blue Jays. Lee has had trouble in the past in Angel Stadium, going 1-2 in 3 starts with a 6.23 ERA and a .301 BAA. And I don't really doubt that he's going to have trouble with LA's only big offensive threat today. Vlad Guerrero is hitting .417 at home this season with 6 HRs. And he's dominated Lee in the past, going 7 for 17 against the lefty. The rest of the LA offense has also hit Lee pretty well. Garrett Anderson is 6 for 13 against Lee. Orlando Cabrera is 4 for 14. And Chone Figgins is 6 for 20. The more I look at this one the more I like it. 1.71 units to win 1.5.

mudder · May 8, 2007

again nice going yesterday jibba, i agree VERY TOUGH card today, i haven't made any plays myself in my tracking forum, don't have a feel for anything so maybe i'll check you out an possibly tail you as i value your opinion....

thanx again,
mudder.....

:toast:

finman13 · May 8, 2007

what a night last night again jibba. almost hit a big 6 team parlay, but got our hearts broken in the cards game.

the play that jumped off the page to me is the orioles today. my god what a horrible line. if i saw jibba pitching against seo on the road id jump on it. also like the angels play. tough card today with some young pitchers. other leans are dbacks, yanks run line and twins. will see what buffett has.

currently 15-4-2 in the nba playoffs. right before tipoff last night i got some late line movement on the jazz so i bought a half pt and got the warriors +5 and also hit over 103.5 for the first half. im not counting that toward my record though.

tonight take the nets +5. i was going to take a shot on the moneyline at +180 but it went down to +160. if it goes back up ill take the moneyline at +180. dont have time for a writeup right now. gl

Jibba · May 8, 2007

Mudder,

Thanks. Didn't know you had a tracker thread. Will have to check it out sometime. Hopefully we can make a little money tonight.

finman,

Glad to see you like the O's and Angels. I also have leans on 'Zona and Minnesota (actually making the Twins a play here), along with a couple others. Going to go ahead and add at least two plays now, although I'm still a bit crunched for time.

Kansas City +101: It's tough for me to finally make an about-face and make a play on the Royals and De La Rosa. But I've really looked hard into this kid after fading him a couple games in a row, and my opinion has changed a bit, especially when he's at home. We all know that Oakland has been hit pretty hard by the injury bug lately, and their offense could certainly use some help. But they won't receive any tonight from De La Rosa, who is 3-0 this year at home in 3 starts (22 IPs) with an ERA of 0.82, a WHIP of 0.86, and a BAA of .182. In his three home starts this year, the lefty has now completely shut down the Angels, the Twins, and the Tigers. And speaking of lefties, Oakland is 27th in the league with a .231 BA against lefties this year. They're also 25th in the league with bot an SLG of .349 and an OPS of .675 against lefties (and it should be noted that De La Rosa has yet to give up a HR at home this year). I don't like betting on the Royals very often, but I'm finally going to roll the dice with this hot starter. 1 unit to win 1.01.

Minnesota -105: Really think the Chi Sox are playing poor baseball right now. Vazquez has not been good on the road and Bonser is undervalued. I look for Bonser to start getting back on track at home against an offense that just can't hit lately. 1.05 units to win 1.

Still have a few leans to work through so I will be back later.

GreenMachine+ · May 8, 2007

Good Luck Jibba, stay hot. Love the Twins tonight, too.

Jibba · May 8, 2007

Thanks Green Machine. Nice night for you last night as well if I remember correctly.

Seattle +192: Jeremy Bonderman came into this season with high expectations among the public. While he does have very solid stuff, I've been happy to go against him more times than not this season because I think the books are treating him like an ace when he has yet to earn that status. In his last 2 starts, lasting 11 innings, he's given up 20 hits and 9 runs. And tonight he faces a Seattle team that continues to play solid ball under the radar. Through last Wednesday the M's had won 7 of 8. Then they ran into road games against the Red Sox and Yankees, where they were still able to go 2 and 3. Now they face a Tigers team that has won 7 straight, but I think this line is too high considering that Seattle is no longer the team that had lost 6 straight before getting hot again. Plus, Detroit has been far better on the road than at home this year. I'll roll the dice with the dog that isn't getting enough respect here. 1 unit to win 1.92.

Pittsburgh +150: Well it looks like the public is back on the Cubs' bandwagon. A week ago, if the Cubs were favored with this line against anyone but the Nats or Royals, everyone would have gobbled up the Pittsburgh money. But today we have the Cubs on a 6 game winning streak and everyone has forgotten about how bad they can play at times. I think the Cubs will have a hard time duplicating their last performance against Snell, as he has good enough stuff that it is hard to beat him twice in a week.

While the Cubs have been heating up, the Pirates have been playing poorly lately, having lost 7 of 9, and have plummeted out of favor with the public. Now the public is jumping all over the idea of a renewed Ted Lilly dominating that lineup. Despite Lilly's hot start to the season, however, I think he's playing over his head right now. He is not on the same level as a pitcher like Snell. Additionally, the Pirates (and Snell for that matter) have played better on the road than at home. I'll take the Pirates gladly at this price. 1 unit to win 1.50.

Still considering San Fran, St. Louis, Arizona, and the Dodgers. Also strongly considering making the Angels a full 2 unit play. BOL to everyone today.

BadassMoFo · May 8, 2007

Quick tidbit on Bonderaman:

A blister on the pitching hand of Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Jeremy Bonderman has forced manager Jim Leyland to juggle his pitching rotation. According to DetroitTigers.com, while the blister is not serious, Leyland wanted to give his young ace a few extra days to recover.
http://detroit.tigers.mlb.com/news/...t_id=1946023&vkey=news_det&fext=.jsp&c_id=detThe move is a direct result of the blister that popped up in his last outing. Team medical staff removed the blister from his index finger, but the goal now is to make sure it doesn't grow back.

I think Bonderman will be alright tonight. I have the Tigers RL.

Jibba · May 8, 2007

Badass MoFo said:
Quick tidbit on Bonderaman:

A blister on the pitching hand of Detroit Tigers starting pitcher Jeremy Bonderman has forced manager Jim Leyland to juggle his pitching rotation. According to DetroitTigers.com, while the blister is not serious, Leyland wanted to give his young ace a few extra days to recover.
The move is a direct result of the blister that popped up in his last outing. Team medical staff removed the blister from his index finger, but the goal now is to make sure it doesn't grow back.

I think Bonderman will be alright tonight. I have the Tigers RL.

Thanks. I actually saw that as well and meant to include it. Having seen Josh Beckett's huge problems with blisters, we all know how they can persist sometimes, no matter what the team claims. This may not be the case here, but it is certainly a possible explanation for why he hasn't looked good lately. And it's also possible that they are still lingering. BOL tonight on you card though and thanks for the info.

finman13 · May 8, 2007

nice picture badas. are you okay?:+)

finman13 · May 8, 2007

final card jibba. all of buffetts plays and adding the nets and orioles. im going to make a half play on the nets +180 as well. gl tonight. you look into yanks game runline?

finman13 · May 8, 2007

actually jibba im gonna add the royals do. was looking hard at that play earlier. this line is off by quite a bit after doing some more digging and reading your writeup

Jibba · May 8, 2007

finman,

Saw BG's card and am on most plays with him. A little nervous about going against San Fran the way they've played at home. Will likely be the Giants or no play for me. Also can't go against the Sox and Beckett. I've been riding Beckett a lot this season and have said all along he is not the same pitcher he was last year. I just don't think there's much chance he loses to Zambrano.

I actually hadn't looked into the Yanks runline, as I instead focused on whether I had the guts to take Texas as a huge dog (no interest in that money line). Definitely wasn't worth it even with the +212. I'm trying not to get too comfortable with run lines, because I've heard from many solid cappers that they rarely offer any value, but I may look into this one now that I've given it some thought.

As for the Royals, I'm definitely a bit nervous about that one, but possibly because I've been so down on De La Rosa most of the season. Would be ironic if he loses when I finally stop fading him, but I think there's good value. Oakland's offense is in shambles right now and it will catch up to them. Finally, I'm very close to bumping the Angels from a 1.5 unit play to a 2 unit play.

finman13 · May 8, 2007

im staying away from the yanks runline. briefly considered the brewers. i think this is a good spot for bush to turn it around against a reeling nats team. will stay away.

i wouldnt feel nervous about the royals play. a's banged up. terrible offense anyway. de la rosa as you noted as been amazing at home. the public is all over the a's and i dont know why. there is good value in this line.

i see joe public is pounding the warriors for game 2. they had their chance to win outright last night but wouldnt exploit the mismatches. this series, much like the rockets series, has a home team winning most, if not all games kinda feel.

no play on the suns game tonight.

have a lean on the pistons tomorrow night plus 3. this team is incredibly focused right now and i dont see how the bulls can offset that, especially with a struggling interior game and heinrich. will let you know. okay im done for the day. plays all in. gl

Jibba · May 8, 2007

I ended up throwing half a unit on the Yanks run line actually. Not really my play so I won't include it in my stats though. As for NBA, I ended up playing the Spurs +5.5 and Nets +5, but as small plays.

Going to add a play or two before I take off from work. And I'm also going to go ahead and make that LA Angels game a 2 unit play and the Baltimore and Minnesota games a 1.5 unit play (same price for all). Unfortunately, I don't really have time for full writeups, but will try to get on once I get home.

Boston -166: This one has fallen just enough to make me feel comfortable. Peole continue to doubt Beckett, but I'll continue to ride him as long as possible when I see him getting undervalued. Zambrano is just not a good pitcher IMO and has never been all that good against the Sox (5.49 ERA over 8 career starts). Ortiz has hit Zambrano very well and I think it continues tonight. 1.68 units to win 1.

San Diego +118: Going to ride the hot team. Like I said yesterday, for whatever reason, this team plays great ball in May. They've done it 2 straight years and I believe are now 5-1 this May. Bit of a tough game to cap, but I'll take the hot hand. 1 unit to win 1.18.

Arizona -112: I'm not 100% sold on Owings, and he hasn't proven he can go deep into games, but I like this spot for him with Howard out and playing at home. I also like the aspect of fading Eaton on the road. 1.12 units to win 1.

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Still have slight leans on LAD and now Cincinatti, but am going to hold off unless I see something in the lineups that pushes me over the edge. BOL to everyone on their cards today.

Total card:

LA Angels: 2.28 units to win 2.00.
Minnesota: 1.58 units to win 1.50.
Baltimore: 2.07 units to win 1.50.
Boston: 1.68 units to win 1.
Arizona: 1.12 units to win 1.
Kansas City: 1 unit to win 1.01.
Seattle: 1 unit to win 1.92.
Pittsburgh: 1 unit to win 1.50.
San Diego: 1 unit to win 1.18.

finman13 · May 8, 2007

glad to see you got on the spurs jibba. i just came in here to say, after more research ill be on that game as well. +5.5/ spurs are 8-2 their last 10 in phoenix and seem to be a bad matchup for the suns. kurt thomas starts tonight in an attempt to slow down duncan. this slows the pace for the suns, which will be to their disadvantage to me.

GoSteelers248 · May 8, 2007

Jibba...with you on the angels

Jibba · May 8, 2007

Good to hear dcs. Right now it's looking like it will make or break my night. The San Diego loss was disappointing since they had the lead late and blew it. Boston and Baltimore are looking like wins, but De La Rosa just imploded right on cue as I feared he would when I finally stopped fading him. Seattle is also losing in the 9th and Minnesota just gave up 3 runs in the 6th. Arizona just started and the big play on the Angels is about to start. Let's cash it bro. :toast:

GoSteelers248 · May 8, 2007

min looking little better...GL to your plays Jibba!

Jibba · May 8, 2007

Just saw that. Would definitely be nice if they could find a way to pull that one out. LA down 1-0 but a long way to go and I don't think those LA bats will stay quite for long. But Santana does seem to be struggling a bit early. He's up 37 pitches with nobody out in the 3rd.