MLB: Tuesday May 8th Plays

buffettgambler · May 8, 2007

On a 32-6 run, but not expecting the greatest of winning percentages today.

Mariners @ Tigers
Play: Mariners +191
Intrinsic Value: +128
Consider Betting Price: +154
Comment:
There is no denying that Ramirez has not looked good on the mound this season and is a risky pitcher to bet on. However, I feel that his risks are fully reflected in the line and then some. Expect him to slowly get things back on track as he has the pitching arsenal to get big league hitters out. When on, he could be really effective against left handed hitters, an asset you want when going up against this Tigers lineup. He is also a pitcher that needs a spacious outfield to be effective, something that he will get in today’s game. I have no problem backing him when he is this out of favor, especially since he is backed by a front end bullpen pitching well right now. The Tigers are swinging the bats well right now, but are one of the few teams that have consistently been less effective hitting at home the last couple of years.

Bonderman has a pitching arsenal to be a dominant pitcher, a variable that has not bypassed the public, as he continues to come with a high price tag. However, he has been known to go into bouts of hittable stretches, something that he might be on the brink of now, as he has allowed 20 hits in his last two starts. Much like the Tigers lineup, Bonderman has been a pitcher that prefers to pitch on the road throughout his career, and this year appears to be no exception. Despite putting forth solid career numbers against the Mariners, they are misleading, as he has not had success against any hitter that he will have to face in today’s lineup. He has however, struggled against all three hitters that have over ten lifetime at bats against him. Bonderman is backed by a solid bullpen, but is a bullpen that suffered a big blow with the injury to Zumaya. This holds especially true as Rodney has not pitched well this season. The Mariners are another team that hits better away from home, and a few of their hitters that underachieved the first month of the season are starting to hit the ball well. In my opinion, they have a better chance of winning this game that linesmakers are leading you to believe.

buffettgambler · May 8, 2007

Red Sox @ Blue Jays
Play: Blue Jays +170
Intrinsic Value: +108
Consider Betting Price: +126
Comment:
This line is way off. Although they have been producing profit year to date, the Red Sox are the most overvalued team in baseball, something that will sooner or later catch up to their bettors. Beckett has pitched well so far year to date, and is an improved pitcher from last year. However, his fast start to the season is exaggerated, and has shown signs of slowing down a bit. Don’t be surprised if he continues his downward trend, as he is up against a team and in a park in which he has struggled against in the past. Last year, the Blue Jays really gave Beckett problems, as he generated a six plus ERA in five starts against them, and allowed a run an inning in his two outings in this park. The Blue Jays have really become out of favor after losing six straight. However, as mentioned continually throughout the season, this is a team much better at home, an environment that they have yet to play in this month. There are a few hitters spread throughout the lineup that hit Beckett well last year. Although the Red Sox bullpen has pitched well year to date, they lack the talent to keep it sustained.

Zambrano is a risky pitcher to put money on, but at this price, his risks are accounted for. He is not a pitcher that can give you more than four or five innings per start, but can keep his team in the first half of the game. Despite having horrible career numbers against the Red Sox, he has actually dominated a few of their key hitters, including Lowell, Ramirez and Varitek. The only hitter with past success against him is Ortiz, who could be pitched around due to the struggles of three hitters behind him. The Blue Jays have a lot of long inning relief pitchers to accommodate Zambrono’s deficiency, and have a few arms with past success against the Red Sox. The Red Sox, much like the Blue Jays, are a much more potent team at home, magnifying the home field advantage in this game.

buffettgambler · May 8, 2007

Pirates @ Cubs
Play: Pirates +150
Intrinsic Value: +118
Consider Betting Price: +146
Comment:
As expected, once the Cubs started getting things on track, they would come with an inflated price tag. Snell is too good of a pitcher to warrant such disrespect by linesmakers. He has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this season, and has the stuff to continue to put forth dominant numbers. He continues to be effective against right handed hitters, but has improved drastically against left handed bats this year, which is a nice asset going up against this Cubs lineup that has some dangerous hitters from the left side as well. Snell is also one of those young pitchers that appears to be better off pitching on the road, when he is less prone to overthrowing. Although the Cubs lineup matches up well against him, their past numbers are a bit misleading, as his five runs allowed last year in this park were a product of getting squeezed and mentally breaking one inning because of it. He is backed by a solid enough bullpen that can slow down a dangerous Cubs bullpen.

Lilly’s curveball has been one of the best in baseball this season, but he simply is not a good enough pitcher to keep his current numbers sustained. He witnessed some regression last week against the same Pirates lineup, who was able to get nine hits against him in just over five innings of work. Most of Lilly’s success this year has been a product of dominating right handed hitters, a variable that he has not done effectively in his career until now. This is just another variable leading to unsustainable numbers. The Pirates have been improving their road performances this year, and are a lineup built to hit left handed pitchers. This is a third straight underdog that has a slightly greater chance of losing, but a better chance of winning than what the market price indicates.

buffettgambler · May 8, 2007

White Sox @ Twins
Play: Twins -107
Intrinsic Value: -131
Consider Betting Price: -117
Comment:
It is becoming quite evident that linesmakers and I have a different opinion on Bonser, as he continues to remain undervalued in my opinion. There is no denying that he has regressed a bit from the second half of last year, but it has been more of a product of underachieving and lacking ideal command, something that he was always good at. Walks have been really plaguing him this year, which is a deficiency that should be helped out by going up against (what was once a patient lineup) and overly aggressive lineup. The White Sox lineup is also a lineup that has really taken a step backwards this year, as regression and age are catching up to them. They are also a lineup that has clearly shown that they miss Thome and Posednick. They have scored more than four runs in one of their last seven games, and are much less dangerous away from home. Being backed by the best bullpen in baseball should force a struggling lineup to put up runs early.

This is the second straight year in which Vazquez has not been effective on the road. This is a trend that has a good chance of continuing today, as he is up against a team that has dominated him in the past, and inside a park that has give him problems as well. He comes into today’s game with an ERA approaching six against the Twins, when most of his struggles have occurred in the Metrodome. Although Mauer’s injury should hurt the Twins in the long run, this game appears to be a game in which his absence is over quantified, as he is a rare Twins player that has struggled against Vazquez, while his replacement has hit him well. There are a few Twins hitters spread across the lineup with past success against him, which is something the Twins are in dire need of, as they have struggled scoring runs in recent games.

buffettgambler · May 8, 2007

Indians @ Angels
Play: Angels -111
Intrinsic Value: -125
Consider Betting Price: -112
Comment:
As much as Santana is a compelling fade on the road, he is a compelling bet at home. There is not a pitcher in baseball with more of a disparity of productivity when comparing home and away performances the last few years. He has been one of the most dominating home pitchers in baseball throughout his young career, coming into today’s game with a career 3.01 home ERA, which is light-years ahead of his 6.60 career road ERA. This year is no exception, as he has put forth solid home performances yet again. Although he has some ugly career totals in limited innings against the Indians, they are inflated by a horrific road start against them. Santana is backed by one of the best bullpens in baseball, so if he can continue his home dominance, this hot Indians lineup may have a hard time scoring throughout.

Lee looked rusty in his first outing coming off the DL, allowing five runs and nine hits in just six innings of work. He should continue to be on a limited pitch count, which should limit him from going deep into the game when you couple the fact he takes a lot of pitches to get outs. Until Lee proves that 05 wasn’t a fluke, I will continue to assume that he is a middle of a road pitcher that put forth one solid year. He has never been terribly effective on the road, has struggled in this park, and has been overmatched by a few Angels hitters spread across the lineup, including Guerrero. The Angels are one of the biggest stealing threats in baseball, especially with Figgins back, which does not bode well for an Indians team not good holding runners on baseball. The Angels have been playing well at home, and have been hitting left handed pitching well this year. The Indians bullpen is not terribly talented, which should give the Angels a clear pitching advantage in the later innings.

buffettgambler · May 8, 2007

Mets @ Giants
Play: Mets +109
Intrinsic Value: -119
Consider Betting Price: -102
Comment:
I am a big fan of Cain. He probably has the heaviest fastball out of any starter in the league right now, which has made him extremely hard to get hits off of. However, there still remain two teams in the NL that he does not match up particularly well against. One is a Phillies team that handed him his first bad start of the season last week. The other is a Mets lineup that he will have to face tonight. Cain has the propensity to struggle with his control, especially against left handed hitters. When he continually falls behind counts, he implodes. So two ideal variables you want against Cain is to have a lineup loaded from the left side, which the Mets are, and a lineup with patient hitters that take a lot of pitches and do not go out of the strike zone, which the Mets do. This should make Cain vulnerable on the mound, and force him to accumulate a high pitch count early in the game. He is also not a good pitcher holding runners on, while Molina has struggled throwing runners out, deficiencies that the Mets will make you pay for having. Cain has been on a low pitch count, and is not an ideal candidate to go deep into this game. The Giants do not have a strong bullpen, and should be overmatched by this Mets lineup. The Mets are the most potent road lineup in the NL, and probably the most dangerous against right handed power pitchers as well.

This is a good spot for Glavine to put forth a solid outing and continue his early season success. He has the spacious outfield he works well with, and is up against a veteran lineup with hitters he is familiar with. Glavine has dominated several role players in today’s lineup, and the only two hitters he has had past struggles against, occurred a few years back, as neither have had much at bats against him the last three years. Glavine has showed solid command in his last few outings, and has been able to generate solid numbers despite pitching against the Phillies and Braves in four of his seven starts. His lack of control in April was a product of pitching in cold weather, a variable that really effects his pitching style and won’t be a factor in today’s game. Aside from Bonds and Durham, the Giants have been displaying free swinging tendencies this year, which Glavine can pick apart. He is also backed by a much better bullpen, which should give the Mets the pitching advantage in the later innings.

OSUCOWBOYS · May 8, 2007

+4.48 Yesterday

+57.60 YTD

I have run out of things to say.......... speechless.

trains40 · May 8, 2007

Good Stuff Lets Nail These.

thecruncher · May 8, 2007

My bankroll thanks you, as it's shaping up to be adequate for football season. Keep up the good work.

worldwidekid · May 8, 2007

thx man... if u dont mind me asking, what book do you go through?

:money8:

Jibba · May 8, 2007

This is a sick run you are on BG. With you on a few today. Love the Angels play. Have been considering the Giants, as I have been riding their solid home play for awhile (aside from Sunday night), but am rethinking it after reading your review. I don't think Cain will get lit up like that 2 games in a row at home, but I also don't see him completely shutting down that Mets offense.

Keep up the great work and thanks as always.

RunsWithKnives · May 8, 2007

i'm gonna follow you again... except against the Cubs... I can go with the Cubs when it's right, but never against them

thanks BG

Dr.Swamee · May 8, 2007

Awesome BG! Will tale you again. Not a Glavine fan but hope he keeps the Giants total managable for the Mets offense to do some damage.

CapNWatch · May 8, 2007

BG congrats and keep it up. With all the hard work you do you deserve it.

finman13 · May 8, 2007

tremendous writeups. im on all of them. was hoping to see you on the orioles as i will fade seo on the road til he doenst get shellacked. what did you value the dbacks at? eaton has a rediculous era going on the road against a dangerour lineup. get on the nets +5 tonight

Boxslayer · May 8, 2007

i just wanted you to know you are very average at what you do. :monsters-

finman13 · May 8, 2007

buffett final question for the day. what did you value the royals at. i think jibba had a good writeup on this game. de la rosa has been the best home pitcher in baseball this year. i know the a's are playing pretty well right now, but i think that will come to an end. i hate betting on the royals, as apparently the public does to, with most money coming in on the a's. i think that has made this a real value play. if you cant score, you cant win and i think the a's will have a real hard time scoring tonight. thanks

finman13 · May 8, 2007

boxslayer...hysterical. lets all hope buffett doesnt start a 900 line or a website:+)

finman13 · May 8, 2007

actually i cant envision buffett with a cheesy suit and grin on a website, or screaming a recorded message:+)

buffettgambler · May 8, 2007

Thanks all.

Finman,
I didn't derive a value for either game. I want to see Owings a bit more before I feel comfortable valuing his worth. On the surface there doesnt appear to be much value on either side.

I also want to see Gaudin in the starting role a couple more starts before I know if he could handle it as well as it appears. But again, on the surface, that line seem fairly priced. The A's are a bit undervalued tommorrow though.

Good luck.