Boxslayer's MLB Tuesday (85-71, +36.06)

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UF. Champion U.
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85-71, +36.06
2-3, -1.60

Tough break yesterday as Houston ML cashed, but they allowed 2 pointless runs in the bottom of the 9th to ruin my RL bet, and snap what would have been my 6-day winning streak. Instead of going 3-2, +0.60 to make it 6 winning days in a row, the 9th inning runs put me at 2-3, -1.60. In other words, not as bad of a day as it looked yesterday. Nice card laid out tonight. Have a couple of nice plays, leading off with the first one that jumped off the card on the late game schedule:

3* Arizona Diamondbacks -114
1* Arizona Diamondbacks -1.5 +170

Last year, the Phillies managed to sweep the D-Backs in Arizona using a pitching combination of Corey Lidle, Hamels, and Madson - and a great series from Ryan Howard who went 5-12, with 2 homeruns and a double.

Today, they are trying to do it with Ryan Howard riding pine, resting his injury bug, and a free agent acquisition, Adam Eaton, that has been getting shelled. Last night the tide turned as the Phillies lost a 4-3 battle to Arizona.

Tonight the Phillies send Adam Eaton, who with great run support and one good performance, has a winning 3-2 record on the year, but the worst ERA in baseball for qualifying pitchers. He'll face off vs. one of my favorite pitchers - Micah Owings. Owings is a 24 year old pitcher that has impressed me since his days at Tulane where he was up for the Golden Spikes award as a two way player. Simply put, this guy knows how to win baseball games. He went 10-0 last season in the minors, earning his call-up and he has not disappointed. Besides bringing a solid performance to the bump, Owings adds another bat to the D-Back lineup.

Outside of one performance from Eaton in which he gave up 2 ER, Eaton has been giving up 5 spots left and right, earning him the worst ERA in baseball. Not only is he getting shelled, but he is plunking batters at a career worst rate, he is walking 3-4 batters a game, and simply helping his opposition find offense. With the D-Backs winning 2 straight, and primed to go on a winning streak, the last thing you want to give Arizona is extra chances to score.

Chase is a hitter's park, and that is why the Phillies have had some success here with Ryan Howard shredding this place up. But he is a huge left handed bat that will sit this one out tonight, and that hurts the Phillies lineup big time in this game vs. the right handed Owings. Welke will umpire, and he has been an over umpire thus far, so this tells me runs will be scored in this game, it's just a matter of who can get outs: Eaton and the worst bullpen and baseball, or Owings and the best bullpen in baseball.

Who can get outs when they need to? My money is on Arizona's Micah Owings, and the top bullpen in baseball. Jose Valverde is 2nd in the majors with 12 saves, saving another one last night, and this D-Backs bullpen brings out a sparkling 2.54 ERA overall, and 1.50 ERA in their last 3 games.

Between Tom Gordon seeing the DL, and the lack of talent in the pen, the Phillies have had to move starter Brett Myers to the Philly bullpen that has a 4.35 ERA and 6+ in their last 3 games.

Even if Eaton somehow pitches over his head, there is no ruling out a comeback from 'Zona off this Phillies pen.
 

UF. Champion U.
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I wanted to take Owings here as I think he's a stud in the making, but I'm not sold on their lineup even against the awful Eaton who I've faded regularly this year. Bullpen will eventually come back to earth IMO but seems like a solid play, GL on it big man.

That's sort of the point of the play. D-Backs lineup is average at best. So we gotta determine when percentages are in their favor to score runs. Because, regardless of how good or bad any lineup is, they all have games where they are able to produce offensively. IMO, today is one of those days for Zona.

Between them playing at home, in a hitter's park, with an over umpire, on a 2-game win streak, starting to heat up, with a pitcher that can actually hit in their lineup, facing a terrible bullpen and a pitcher that has the worst ERA in baseball - if the D-Backs are ever going to have a good outing at the plate - you would think today is the day.

With Philly missing Ryan Howard, facing an up and coming stud pitcher on the road, off a loss, and facing a good bullpen that is red hot, you would think percentages are good that Philly won't be able to have a breakout game offensively.

http://hollahollacp.ytmnd.com/
 

Rx. Junior
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Glad to see you are on the D-Backs as well....Truth be told...I am undefeated when my picks coincide with yours....Owings is going to Own This team tonight....Period
 

UF. Champion U.
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1* Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 -115

How could you not at this point? Team is red hot right now.
 

UF. Champion U.
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1* Pittsburgh Pirates +150

Ian Snell getting no respect. Ted Lilly getting too much respect.
 

UF. Champion U.
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2* Minnesota Twins -108

Twins are one of a few teams in baseball with a true homefield advantage. While Boof Bonser is 0-1 on the season, Twins are 3-3 in games that he appears in. He does even better at home, holding opponents to a .228 batting average at home. With Chicago missing half their team to injury, it has taken them awhile to find their groove. They have now won 2 straight, and I just think this is a bad spot for them to make it 3. Teams with serious injuries don't go off on winning streaks.

Javier Vazquez makes his start for the Whitesox and he has been traditionally one of baseball's worst road pitchers. Vs. Minnesota he has been horrid outside of his last start against them. Twins bat about .300 off him, and have had plenty of looks at him, with Luis Castillo getting 23 hits off of him. Backed by one of the elite bullpens in baseball, Boof Bonser and this Twins pitching staff should have a good bouncebackspot here tonight against a wounded Whitesox team that has a familiar face on the mound.
 

UF. Champion U.
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Cubs beat this guy last time out, he couldn't find the plate...

It is what it is.

You can't make any judgements on a guy based on one outing. It's not like he's 0-5 vs. the Cubs lifetime with 40 hits in 24 IP.

It was his worst outing of the season, and it wasnt even THAT bad. 4ER in 5IP. I'm sure you've seen much worse, and I'm willing to allow the guy a few bad starts every year. Most of those runs generated from his 4walks in 5IP. But other than that, 11 groundballs vs. 4 flyballs is outstanding. If he throws strikes tonight, he can get the Cubs to roll over pitches.

The guy has a 2.31 ERA, and that includes his 4ER in 5IP from last game. And he's at +150 vs. Ted Lilly? Value.

Overall, take it for what it's worth..... 1* play, not my GOY or anything.

Good luck
 

Buried Alive after week 2 of the NFL
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Gonna go head and follow you on that Twins play as I see several other solid cappers on it as well, while the public is on the ChiSox. Also played the RL +180 as Twins are capable of winning 8-2/9-1 games on any given night, feels like a good spot. Cant wait to get back into things starting on Saturday. Good luck.
 

UF. Champion U.
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Yes sir.

Then Soriano just made a helluva throw from LF to get Pitt's go ahead run at the plate though
 

Buried Alive after week 2 of the NFL
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Thanks for the Winna with the Twins...Had RL too, plus some hoops winnas, could be a big night.
 

Murder is like a workout plan gotta keep a fat bur
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this Pitt game is embarrassing to watch how the fuck you cant score with a man on 3rd and no outs
 

Murder is like a workout plan gotta keep a fat bur
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It seems like you never win those 1* RL bets when they're connected to your big plays
 

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