Jibba's Wednesday MLB

Jibba · May 9, 2007

Money Lines:

Favorites: 80-41 for +22.75 units
Underdogs: 26-22 +11.50 units
Total: 87-50 for +34.25 units

Run Lines: 3-2 +1.88 units
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Mediocre night yesterday going 5-4 for a profit of about a unit. Winning is winning though. On to today's card, which I like much more than yesterday's. Really swamped at work today and only have one play that I can post right now. I'll also post my leans and come back to confirm them as plays once I've had a chance to dig through them a bit more, but I feel pretty good about them at the moment. Hopefully I won't lose out too much with line movement, although I notice 1 or 2 potential plays have already moved against me a bit while I've been running around this morning. Maybe I'll get a bit more value from some of them though.

LA Angels -119: Got burned by the Angels last night on my 2 unit play, but I'll go right back to them as I do not expect them to lose 2 straight at home, where they have been very solid this year (12-6). Weaver has yet to look like the stud SP of last year, but he's also only had one start at home thus far where the Angels like to pour on runs. It will certainly be tough to shut down this Indians offense the way he's pitched, but I think he can put up a solid enough performance and let the Angels bats do the rest against an overvalued Paul Byrd. 1.19 units to win 1.

Leans:

Tampa Bay +128
Boston -157
Oakland -115
Chicago (AL) +135
Washington +185
Colorado +125
San Fran +130
Philly +107
Cincinatti -133
San Diego +146

oatmealpancakes · May 9, 2007

Good luck, Jibba.

Playing the Nats for first time this year. Hoping Bergmann can get the Brewers off the bases and Vargas looks like the near 5.00 ERA pitcher from '05 and '06. He got hit hard last outing.

finman13 · May 9, 2007

luckily there were 2 extra inning wins last night to keep the day from being a loser. got spanked in the nba last night to drop my record to 15-6-2.

i have a lean on the angels now. getting good value on the nats today. not sure yet if ill take them. i am playing the under though. with you on phillies, rockies and reds. red sox game is a no play for me because dice k is struggling. also really like the braves. on the twins and mets probably to.

maybe a no play on the orioles game for me. waiting for bedard to wake up. shields has been good lately and the drays smack left handed pitching. not sure about the oakland play because meche has been solid. looking at the jazz or no play tonight. hoping the line will drop another half pt

Jibba · May 9, 2007

Thanks oatmeal. Nats certainly look like decent value with Bergmann going, but I'm still a little gunshy after watching them give up that big lead (or two?) last week when I was on them. We'll see after I do a bit more research. BOL today.

Oakland -115: Well, I got burned with De La Rosa last night as I feared I might, and today I'm going back to fading the worst home team in the league. And it really doesn't hurt that they're facing one of the best pitchers in baseball right now. Haren has started 4 games on the road this year and holds a 1.33 ERA, a 0.89 WHIP, and a .194 BAA in those games. He has been able to pretty much shut down every team he's faced, including the Angels twice, the D-Rays twice, the Yankees (3 runs, but on 4 hits), the Orioles, and the Mariners. If these offenses can't get to him, what are the Royals going to do? If past matchups between them tell us anything, it does not look good for KC.

Oakland's offense hasn't shown any effects from the injuries that have hit their offense. They have a very tought opponent today in Gil Meche, but one they have really succeeded against in the past (Meche is 2-7 with a 4.56 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP against the A's). While Meche has been able to keep teams from scoring a lot of runs this year, he hasn't had as much luck when it comes to keeping them off the bases. Aside from his last game, in which he fared much better, he's been prone to give up a higher number of hits than the Royals would like, considering their own weak offense's inability to come from behind. I'll gladly take the league leader in ERA against this weak offense. 1.15 units to win 1.

mudder · May 9, 2007

gl today jibba i'm with you on the A's got them an three others posted in the tracking forum....i'd like your opinion if possible, this is your thread so i don't wanna be rude, may i ask you your opinion on the Dodgers/Marlins game. i myself think the Dodgers are a strong play (which i took) but every time i go against Dontrelle i get burnt, i'd like your opinion...Tomko 6-1 vs. Fla, Willis 1-4.....thanx your insight greatly appreciated.....

finman13 · May 9, 2007

where is the tracking forum?

Jibba · May 9, 2007

Hey mudder,

Have to be short at the moment as I'm still swamped, but my initial reaction was Florida. And I think that's generally the public play on this one. After some digging (although admittedly brief digging, as I had not yet capped this game), I'd actually lean toward LAD myself. As I've been saying for awhile, they are a solid team on the road this year. Florida started off hot and their offense was on fire, so of course the public fell in love with them. And then there's Willis, another public favorite, going against Tomko, a public fade. But the numbers you mentioned are certainly cause to rethink a play on Florida. So I like the Dodgers but have to give it more thought and research. And a lot depends on where the line goes from here. I thouht I saw LAD at around +125 this morning and see it's now at +120. If it continues to drop I'm not sure what I'll do. Definitely not a play yet, but you look to be on the right side after only a minimal amount of digging. BOL.

Jibba · May 9, 2007

finman13 said:
where is the tracking forum?

Here.

finman13 · May 9, 2007

looks like a lot of crappy handicapping per those standings. yikes!

Jibba · May 9, 2007

I don't go in there often, and I've actually never looked at the standings. Gotta get one early play in quick.

Colorado +126: Hirsh, if nothing else, has been consistent this year and does not let up a lot of hits. That's a good sign against a team is having huge troubles at the plate recently. Wainwright came into the season overrated and we have seen him struggle after converting from a relief pitcher. Also, there's only so much stock you can put in it, but Hirsh pitches well in day games while Wainwright does not. I like the Cards' struggles to continue today against the consistently undervalued Hirsh. 1 unit to win 1.26.

GoSteelers248 · May 9, 2007

with you on colorado Jibba.. but did you know that holiday is not playing today?? I just saw that from the line up

GreenMachine+ · May 9, 2007

Good Luck Jibba on the A's with you and will tail you on Angels.

Jibba · May 9, 2007

dcspride said:
with you on colorado Jibba.. but did you know that holiday is not playing today?? I just saw that from the line up

I did know that. It did almost convince me to stay away, but I still like the play. I just think Wainwright needs more than 5 starts to complete the conversion from reliever to starter. And the way St. Louis has been playing, they really shouldn't be favored against a starter who has performed well so far this year.

Also, as for the Nats game, I did like them today but the line kept dropping and by game time it just wasn't worth the price. BOL to everyone today. Back in a bit. Let's go Rockies!

ymmit2nd · May 9, 2007

good luck...........

Jibba · May 9, 2007

Thanks GM and 50. Hope we all win some cash today.

NY Mets -141: I'm doing a bit of an about-face on this one. I think I've overinflated San Fran a bit in my own head and have ridden them hard over the past week and a half. Fortunatly, I've known when to stay away (such as last night). Today I'm going to have to hop on the John Maine Train. With a good chance that Bonds will be out today, I can't justify going against this kid. He's given me absolutely no reason to think his unbelieveable run won't continue. He's giving up an average of only 4 hits per game over 6 starts (about 6 and a half innings per start on average). He's also gotten his control together after giving up too many walks in 2 of his first 3 starts. The Giants have played great ball lately at home, but they've certainly shown signs of slowing down. And the Mets are playing great ball on the road this season.

Matt Morris will be taking the hill for the Giants, and he's given the public enough reason to back him with his 4-1 record and 3.20 ERA. But the public doesn't care that he's also put up a .289 BAA and a 1.58 WHIP, or that he has more walks than Ks on the season. He won't be facing a middle of the road offense like he has during most starts this year. This time around he'll have one of the most dangerous lineups in the game. Ended up with a somewhat bad line on this, but in the end I see where the value is. 1.41 units to win 1.

Philadelphia +109: I still think Randy is being overvalued. He's the only reason the D-Backs are favored today, and he is undeserving based on his performance so far this season. I'll continue to fade this 44 year old until he proves that he still belongs in the game. And I'll go with the 44 year old who has shown us all season that he does still belong in baseball. Jamie Moyer has been putting up great numbers this year so far and is reminding me more and more of Greg Maddux every start. He doesn't walk many guys and has been pretty solid keeping players off the basepaths. He has looked good both on the road and against very solid offenses. And he faces a D-Backs team today that is hitting a measly .230 this season against lefties (28th in MLB). Furthermore, over the last 7 days, Arizona is hitting .228 and has put up only 20 runs. I like this situation considering we're getting the better pitcher and the better offense as a dog. 1 unit to win 1.09.

trains40 · May 9, 2007

with you on all 3 gl man

Jibba · May 9, 2007

with you on all 3 gl man

Good to hear man. Hope we make some cash tonight.

LA Dodgers +123: I don't particularly like putting money on Tomko on the road. Although he's pitched well this year so far, he's not a very good starter away from home. But for some reason he's pitched well in Dolphins Stadium, as well as against the Marlins in general. During his career, he's gone 6-1 over 9 starts against Florida, with a 3.00 ERA, a 1.15 WHIP, and a .253 BAA. In Dolphins Stadium, he's gone 3-1 in 5 career starts with a 2.29 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, and a .233 BAA. And he's facing the Marlins at just the right time, as this public favorite is falling back to Earth. Over the last 7 days, the Marlins have only been able to put up 22 runs while batting a meager .217. And just one more note on Tomko . . . May has historically been one of his best months.

On the other side, we have Dontrelle Willis, who has been a public favorite the past few years even during his struggles. Willis has struggled in the past against the Dodgers, going 1-4 in 5 starts with a 7.66 ERA, a 1.99 WHIP, and a .327 BAA. He's also never been any better at home than he is on the road, and May has been his worst month over his career. Moving onto this year, the public is eating up his 5-1 record. Nevermind the fact that he's put up a 5.44 ERA to go along with a 1.56 WHIP and a whopping .298 BAA. He's been even worse in home starts. In sum, he's far from the dominating pitcher he was 2 years ago. He's getting by this year, but he's certainly not blowing anyone away with his stuff. I'll take the solid road team going against the sinking Marlins. Hate continuing this trend of going against Buffetgambler, but I like the dog here. 1 unit to win 1.23.

CHOPTALK · May 9, 2007

When you have a lean, when does it become a play if at all?

mudder · May 9, 2007

jibba thanx for the response, ...lets both make some money,

i tailed you on a couple lets cash........

:toast:

finman13 · May 9, 2007

im actually liking the over in the marlins game. i think the bats for the marlins wake up and i think dontrelle will continue to struggle against a solid lineup.