MLB: Wednesday May 9th Plays

buffettgambler · May 9, 2007

There are a few games close to my target, so I may add throughout the day.

Mets @ Giants
Play: Mets -132
Intrinsic Value: -169
Consider Betting Price: -148
Comment:
Ever since late last year, people have been waiting for Maine to come back to earth. Not only has he yet to do such, he hasn’t even shown signs of slowing down. He has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball this year, and might currently be the hardest pitcher to get hits off of. In nearly 40 innings of work, he has allowed just 24 hits, and has shown better command of his pitches in his last three games. Maine has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his starts, and has actually pitched more effectively in his road outings. He is just as dominant on left handed hitters as he is right handed ones, which is a nice asset when going up against a lineup that is balanced between the two. The Giants have never faced him before, and lack the ideal patience at the plate to take advantage of his only weakness, his propensity to walk batters. Maine has also pitched better during day games throughout his career, and is backed by one of the better bullpens in baseball. The Giants should have a hard time scoring throughout this game. The Giants have a roster filled with veteran players, and are more than likely going to rest a starter or two in a day game following a night game.

Morris has started the season off well, but is past his prime and has been in a downward trend for three years now. Morris has been more prone to getting overmatched by power hitters and left handed bats late in his career, two deficiencies you do not want to have against this Mets lineup. His solid career numbers against the Mets are misleading, as he has only had success against one hitter in the lineup, and has actually struggled pitching against a few. Morris also struggled pitching against the Mets last year. Teams have been running off of him this year, something the Mets could capitalize on. He is backed by a sub par bullpen that should be overmatched by this Mets lineup. The Mets are the most dangerous lineup against right handed pitcher and on the road in the NL.

buffettgambler · May 9, 2007

Devil Rays @ Orioles
Play: Orioles -131
Intrinsic Value: -190
Consider Betting Price: -173
Comment:
A lot of hidden value on the Orioles, as the public has started backing Shields after his fast start and have shied away from Bedard after early season struggles. There is no denying the upside potential in which Shields possesses. He has one of the best change ups out of any right handed pitcher in baseball. However, he has yet to show any consistency in his road starts, and there has not been a team in baseball that has given him more problems in his young career. The Orioles handed him his worst start of the season a couple of weeks back, and also had success against him last year. Shields comes into this game with a career five plus road ERA, and an ERA approaching six against the Orioles. Part of Shields success has been his ability to face lineups with not much experience against him, which bodes well for his chances, as he is hard to time and his change up is hard to pick up. However, the Orioles have faced him three times now and have had no problem hitting him. There are a few hitters with past success in limited at bats. The Orioles have been swinging the bats better of late and have gotten a boost from the return of Hernandez. Shields is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball.

It is only a matter of time until Bedard starts pitching to his ability, something that he showed in his last start against a potent Indians lineup. This is a good spot for him to put forth two solid outings in a row. He has always been a much more effective pitcher at home, and has dominated the Devil Rays throughout his career. His style of pitching always matches up well against free swinging lineups, something this Drays lineup is notorious for. Last year he dominated this lineup, posting a 2.75 ERA in six starts against them. It is no surprise that he has had past success against a few of their hitters. He is also backed by a solid bullpen that is much more talented than their counterparts. The Devil Rays are much less potent away from home, and are better suited for going up against pitchers easy to steal off of, which is not the case here.

buffettgambler · May 9, 2007

Dodgers @ Marlins
Play: Marlins -122
Intrinsic Value: -150
Consider Betting Price: -134
Comment:
Tomko is a fundamental handicappers dream, as he is a very situational pitcher. There have not been many pitchers in the last decade that has shown a higher disparity of home and away productivity than he. He comes into today’s game with a career ERA over one and a half runs higher in his road starts, which is a huge disparity after so many years of pitching. This does not bode well for his chances as he is making his second straight road start against one of the most potent lineups in the National League. The Marlins have been swinging the bats as well as any other team in the National League and have young players spread throughout the lineup that match up well with Tomko’s pitching style. Tomko has put forth solid, but misleading career numbers against the Marlins as he has not had much of a past history against most of their hitters. Although he is backed by a solid bullpen, he is not expected to go deep into this game, and their front end pen also possesses a pitching style that does not match up well with this lineup.

Willis has looked bad so far this year, but I have no problem backing him when he is this out of favor. He has been in some rough stretches before and has always bounced back in dominating fashion. Despite coming into this game with some poor career totals against the Dodgers, they too are misleading, as the has had past success against a some of their hitters, while the Nomar comes into this game with the best numbers against him, just 4 for 9. Willis has been the most dominant starter against left handed hitters this year, allowing just three hits, which should curtail the effects of the three left handed outfielders on the Dodgers. Although the Marlins bullpen has been overachieving, they have a few young, live arms pitching well right now.

buffettgambler · May 9, 2007

Astros @ Reds
Play: Astros +140
Intrinsic Value: -108
Consider Betting Price: +106
Comment:
It was quite apparent prior to season’s start that Williams numbers would depreciate by not having a pitchers park at his disposal in his home outings. However, he is not as bad as his current numbers would indicate, and his risks are fully reflected in the current line. He has actually put forth three quality starts in a row, and is a finesse right handed pitcher that has always pitched to left handed hitters more effectively, which is a nice asset to have against this left handed loaded lineup. Although he has struggled throughout his career against the Reds, he has only pitched to them twice in the last three years. He has had past success against Dunn and Hattenberg, and only Griffey has given him real problems in the past. He is not backed by the best of bullpens, but a bullpen much better than their counterparts.

Beslisle has shown some signs of slowing down of late, allowing at least four runs in three straight home starts. He comes into today’s game with a six plus home ERA year to date. Left handers match up well with his pitching style, which is not something you want against this Astros lineup. He has been much more hittable of late, and has gone past the sixth inning in just one start this year. This does not bode well for the Reds chances, as he is backed by one of the worst bullpens in baseball. The Astros lineup is starting to pick up steam, scoring 26 runs in their last four games.

buffettgambler · May 9, 2007

Indians @ Angels
Play: Indians +120
Intrinsic Value: 102
Consider Betting Price: +118
Comment:
Now that the Angels hot streak at the plate is over, their have reverted back to one of the most dormant lineups in baseball. Last night, they were thoroughly dominated by a pitcher that consistently kept them off balance with off speed pitches. This does not bode well for their chances in tonight’s game, as they are up against a savvy veteran that has made a living keeping hitters off balance. Byrd is looking more like the solid pitcher he was in 05, rather than the pitcher that was a liability on the mound in 06. He has regained confidence in his stuff, allowing him to pitch effectively from the stretch. He has also shown outstanding command, and has walked just three batters all year. He has also always been a pitcher that has pitched more effectively on the road. He has always been much more prone going up against lineups loaded from the left side, as left handed hitters have always had a much easier time picking him up. However, the Angels are one of the least potent lineups from the left side, which holds especially true after the injury to Anderson. There are a couple of role players on the Angels in which Byrd has had past success against, while he matches up well with the younger hitters that have yet to see him. The Indians bullpen is well rested thanks to Lee’s gem last night.

After a horrible start to the season, Weaver has now put forth two solid outings in a row. That said, he is not nearly as good of a pitcher than the numbers he put forth last year, and could have problems against a power lineup that is patient and loaded from the left side. Weaver has been downright dominant against right handed bats in his career, but is prone to struggle against left handed ones. This does not bode well, as he is more than likely going to face five left handed bats, including the first four in the lineup. He is backed by a solid bullpen, but a bullpen that took a huge blow with the Spier going to the DL. The Angels are now two deep and vulnerable to this Indians lineup prior to the 8th inning. The Indians have been one of the most dangerous road hitting teams in baseball the last three years.

biff_chipmon · May 9, 2007

BG,

Thanks for all that you do!

ANy chance of posting the IVs and consider prices on the other games? I don't have the luxury of checking the board very often throughout the day.

It would be MUCH appreciated, although I would understand if you're not willing to.

Best of luck today and thanks for all of your hard work!

OSUCOWBOYS · May 9, 2007

+.48 Yesterday

+58.08 YTD

finman13 · May 9, 2007

glad to see you are on the mets and orioles. a lot of backers of the drays today. marlins game was a no play for me until i read you writeup. on the surface i liked the reds and the angels, but you have convincing arguments.

hoping to see you on the rockies today. really like the matchup. i like hirsh pitching in day games. also looks like the nats line is tumbling, thought it might be the day to take a shot on them. also interested to see if you fade randy johnson again.

buffettgambler · May 9, 2007

biff_chipmon said:
BG,

Thanks for all that you do!

ANy chance of posting the IVs and consider prices on the other games? I don't have the luxury of checking the board very often throughout the day.

It would be MUCH appreciated, although I would understand if you're not willing to.

Best of luck today and thanks for all of your hard work!

Yankees IV: -167 CB: -152
Rangers IV: +167 CB: +200

Cardinals IV: -140 CB: -126
Rockies IV: +140 CB: +182

Red Sox IV -129 CB: -113
Blue Jays IV : +129 CB: +162

Dbacks IV: -114 CB -102
Phillies IV: +114 CB +134

A's IV: -119 CB: -104
Royals IV: +119 CB: +154

Braves IV -129 CB: -116
Padres IV +129 CB: +163

Cubs IV -104 CB: +122
Pit: IV +104 CB +132

Good luck

finman13 · May 9, 2007

yikes the rockies arent even close. looks like the pirates, bjays, dbacks and rangers are pretty close to being plays. thanks

worldwidekid · May 9, 2007

thx man, but where are u getting ur lines at... i have been loosing between 3-15pts per game and i have a couple different outs.

buffettgambler · May 9, 2007

finman13 said:
glad to see you are on the mets and orioles. a lot of backers of the drays today. marlins game was a no play for me until i read you writeup. on the surface i liked the reds and the angels, but you have convincing arguments.

hoping to see you on the rockies today. really like the matchup. i like hirsh pitching in day games. also looks like the nats line is tumbling, thought it might be the day to take a shot on them. also interested to see if you fade randy johnson again.

I am not capping Bergaman's games, as I just don't know how to value him. His numbers are much better than his pitching ability, and several sabermetric indicators show a slowdown in the near future. How much of a slowdown is yet to be seen.

No value in fading RJ now that the public is doing such. Moyer can not sustain his current numbers.

buffettgambler · May 9, 2007

world wide kid said:
thx man, but where are u getting ur lines at... i have been loosing between 3-15pts per game and i have a couple different outs.

I have several outs. But all the lines posted are the current lines at matchbook at the time of post. It is a must have for baseball.

buffettgambler · May 9, 2007

Rockies @ Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -126
Intrinsic Value: -140
Consider Betting Price: -126
Comment:
Late post and no time for write up. Wainwright is far too talented to keep this up. His breaking ball has been more hittable this year, but is up agianst a poor breaking ball hitting lineup. Rockies are not a good road team, nor has Hirsh pitched well on the road. His high walk total is exactly what a team struggling to get hits needs.

im2bz4yaa · May 9, 2007

On the cards with you......let's start this day off with a winner.

Jibba · May 9, 2007

BOL today BG. For the first time this year there is virtually no common ground on our plays today. Always enjoy and respect your opinion though. Thanks as always.

buffettgambler · May 9, 2007

Jibba said:
BOL today BG. For the first time this year there is virtually no common ground on our plays today. Always enjoy and respect your opinion though. Thanks as always.

I don't like the sound of that. Maybe a break even day for both?

Gl to us BZ

sawastea · May 9, 2007

buffettgambler said:
Rockies @ Cardinals
Play: Cardinals -126
Intrinsic Value: -140
Consider Betting Price: -126
Comment:
Late post and no time for write up. Wainwright is far too talented to keep this up. His breaking ball has been more hittable this year, but is up agianst a poor breaking ball hitting lineup. Rockies are not a good road team, nor has Hirsh pitched well on the road. His high walk total is exactly what a team struggling to get hits needs.

Matt Holliday is NOT in the starting lineup

Jibba · May 9, 2007

buffettgambler said:
I don't like the sound of that. Maybe a break even day for both?

Gl to us BZ

I'd take it. Especially considering that sick run you had entering yesterday, and still have going basically since you were on a bunch of dogs yesterday. Haven't made many plays official yet as I've been swamped at work, so I'm definitely going to look hard at your thoughts before making them official plays. BOL.

finman13 · May 9, 2007

dang i missed your cards play. buffett i know you said you dont do totals early in the year. do you anticipate doing them anytime soon if at all?

MLB: Wednesday May 9th Plays

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