Thursday, 05.10.07 - Picks by the Numbers - [93-60]

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Dreamin' Big
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Record:
93-60, +32.22 units

Here are the early games, a lot of totals...

Dodgers/Marlins o8.5 (-120)
Padres/Braves u8.5 (-120)
Mariners/Tigers u9.5 (-120)
Indians/Angels u9 (-115)
Padres ML (+185)

...hoping for the Braves, M's, Tigers, Indians, and Angels to all be hungover :lolBIG: . I really don't understand how the Padres are such a huge dog. I understand how good Hudson has been and yes Wells has struggled so far this year, but he's done very, very well in Hot-lanta (3-0, 0.82 in 32 IP). I'd usually make a heavy dog like that a 1/2 unit play, but what the hell, let us go for the cool +185.

Let's get some wins!
 

antigravity
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his records are from like 3 years ago. Hes an aging pitcher and he was probably far more effective 3 years ago.
 

Dreamin' Big
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his records are from like 3 years ago. Hes an aging pitcher and he was probably far more effective 3 years ago.

That does worry me sometimes but believe it or not, I've noticed how some of these numbers end up working out one way or another. They'll point you in the right direction and you end up winning most of the time. The Braves lineup has been struggling anyway, so a great spot for Wells to put up his best performance of the year AND a great spot for Hudson to have his first bad start of the year.
 

Where Taconite Is Just A Low Grade Ore
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"Great Spot For Hudson To Have His Worst Start"

Why?
 

Dreamin' Big
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Because of the whole "baseball is a game of averages" and the "he's due" theory. I don't have any numbers that suggest Hudson is a bad pitcher in this spot, but compared to Wells' numbers he is. Hoping for a low-scoring Padres win, 3-1 would be ideal with the Padres maintaining a 3-0 lead the whole game until they allow a meaningless run in the bottom of the 9th :thumbsup:
 

New member
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thanks ramonskee,by looking at your record there is no reason for anybody to be doubting you. i like the fact you are willing to put an underdog at that price out there. its easier and safer to always bet the stud pitchers at -250 to -300. most people will not second guess you. i like the play and will watch it and not have to sweat out losing a huge bet. lets hope chubby pitches well in the heat in hotlanta.
 

Dreamin' Big
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Dodgers/Marlins o8.5 (-120) L
Padres/Braves u8.5 (-120) W
Mariners/Tigers u9.5 (-120) L
Indians/Angels u9 (-115) In-Progess, 6-0 in 6th
Padres ML (+185) L


1-3, -2.40 units on the day so far

Hoping for the Angels and Indians to stay under 3 runs scored in the final 4 innings. A 5 run third really hurt us in that game. Angels had the bases loaded w/ 2 outs in a 0-0 tie and Jeremy Sowers couldn't get that last out. Same can be said for David Wells and the Padres in the 6th inning when the bases were loaded for the Braves w/ 2 outs and someone hit a 3-run triple to put the Braves ahead for good.

Three plays for tonight, one being a parlay...

Orioles -1.5 (+130)
Rockies ML (-118)
Orioles/Rox ML Parlay (+193*)
* = at Bodog, you can probably get a much better line elsewhere.

...should be an interesting night. Hoping for a strong finish after a very bad afternoon.

Let's get some wins!
 

Dreamin' Big
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Dodgers/Marlins o8.5 (-120) L
Padres/Braves u8.5 (-120) W
Mariners/Tigers u9.5 (-120) L
Indians/Angels u9 (-115) W
Padres ML (+185) L
Orioles -1.5 (+130) W
Rockies ML (-118) W
Orioles/Rox ML Parlay (+193) W

5-3, +2.83 units on the day
98-63, +35.05 units on the year

Got the very strong finish I was hoping for and it was great.
All night games tomorrow so I'll be posting my plays in the afternoon.
 

Where Taconite Is Just A Low Grade Ore
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Bal & Rocks Were A Nice Finish, But

I you`re going to use the "he`s/they`re due theory" as a basis for betting a gm any gm, it`s a sure road to disaster. BOL
 

Dreamin' Big
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I you`re going to use the "he`s/they`re due theory" as a basis for betting a gm any gm, it`s a sure road to disaster. BOL

I didn't use that theory at all. I added it on, yes, but that was not the basis or even part of the reason as to why I picked the Padres. The numbers matched up and like I said earlier, IF Wells gets that final out w/ the bases loaded in the 6th inning and everything else holds up the way it did, Padres win 3-2. But that is a big if.
 

Only time will tell now!
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You ain't messing around with the playoffs brother?
Just haven't seen your post lately Ramonskee.
 

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